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Author Topic: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa  (Read 295022 times)

digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11660 on: October 13, 2021, 10:10:40 am »

Americans see Biden's incompetence and lies.  Even the press can't fool them any longer.
The hammer speaking rubbish for all Americans here again. Sad but consistent nonsense.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11661 on: October 13, 2021, 10:37:14 am »

One of my biggest concerns going into the 2020 election was that, inevitably, there would be a recession sometime by 2024.  Which ever party controlled the White House would be blamed for it and suffer the consequences in 2024, and perhaps 2022, just like in 2008 and 1982 and 1932.  This would cede the following decade to the opposing party, and by how much would depend on how deep the recession was.  Even though I firmly believe Trump would handle a recession better then Biden, the long term advantages of Trump loosing in 2020 could outweigh the short term success of him winning for Republicans even if that means a good deal of economic suffering.  It now seems like this will be coming to fruition. 

The global supply chain nightmare is about to get worse

This is sure to spark even more inflation, especially if the welfare state is expanded.  You know, more money chasing fewer goods, less people working and all that jazz.  On top of that, due to the all of the talk about future tax and regulation increases, businesses just are not investing, which will eventually lead to stagnation if this is not reversed.  When you combine stagnation with inflation you get ... stagflation.  Get ready to travel back in time to the simpler days of the late 1970s. 

Now could Biden avoid this?  Maybe, but he has shown to us by this point that he is likely too inept to actually weather it.  So I expect Biden will move to his next best strategy, scapegoating someone or some group.  Maybe it will be those unvaccinated Americans or the evil Republicans getting in his way causing stagflation, or, just perhaps, he will look within and sacrifice one of his lambs he lined up just for this situation. 

Amateur hour: Pete Buttigieg's inexperience exposed as supply chain breaks down

I told you all back in January Buttigieg's was being put in that position to, for all intents and purposes, murder his career.  No one ever knows who the secretary of transportation is unless there is a crisis. 
« Last Edit: October 13, 2021, 11:55:31 am by JoeKitchen »
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LesPalenik

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11662 on: October 13, 2021, 03:30:25 pm »

In addition to the direct inflation, there is also a lot of "shadow inflation", as the companies cut down on number of services, previously included in their prices, or reducing the size of goods, like smaller packages of coffee and vitamins.

Quote
Consumers may be getting less "bang for their buck" as companies have begun to offer fewer services in lieu of raising prices, Alan Cole, former staff for Congress' Joint Economic Committee and policy director at Full Stack Economics.

Generally, inflation occurs when the price of a good increases, so that consumers pay more for what they could previously purchase for a cheaper price. “But there's another way that inflation can happen, and that's when you're paying the same amount, but getting less for your money,” Cole told Yahoo Finance Live. “I think [shadow inflation is] all around us, especially since the pandemic has started. It's been common for people to cut back service in some way because of the pandemic and still continue to charge the same price.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shadow-inflation-is-all-around-us-economist-explains-183720605.html
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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11663 on: October 13, 2021, 08:23:56 pm »

No, but it seems though that you know very little about aggregated polling

Really? I've had a pretty keen interest in polling methodology, poll aggregation methodology, and the relative accuracy of those differing methodologies in varied scenarios for quite some time.

Let's see how this plays out.

The graphs you posted is [are] the averaged polling of the most recent poll of each individual poll, for Biden.

No, they are not. You give the appearance of being unaware that poll aggregators each have their own statistical methodology for aggregating polls and producing trend line graphs. The methodology that you describe above is the simplest and is comparable to what frequently cited (and often preferred in conservative media) Real Clear Politics (RCP) uses for example. The main issue that I have with RCP is that they utilize too small of a sample size, relative to available public polling data, and may tend to cherrypick at times. Still, during election season, I will frequently look at and compare their numbers to other aggregators as their methodology isn't one that's invalid or should be ignored; I just think that it tends to be a somewhat less accurate method overall.

538, which is also frequently cited (perhaps the most frequently cited over the past several years), is the aggregator to which I linked and from whom the graphs were taken. They use a much more complex methodology than what you describe. First, they use every available public poll which meets widely recognized and accepted basic scientific standards for methodology and only a small fraction of polls are excluded on that basis. Second, each poll is weighted prior to inclusion based on several different and carefully analyzed and structured criteria. This is done for multiple reasons, not the least of which is that by choosing to use only minimal screening of polls, the accuracy of their aggregation could be skewed by polls with lower quality methodology, statistical bias trends, a track record of lower accuracy, smaller sample size, older data, among other considerations of statistical accuracy. It goes deeper than this and their methodology is transparent and highlighted with links on their site. Actually, had you looked, or were remotely interested in their methodology, there is a link highlighted in large blue type incorporated in the title above the trend line graph on the page that I linked which says "How this works". There is also additional detail available on their site on each of the weighting criteria.

538's individual poll weighting can vary dramatically based on several factors: sample size, pollster rating for bias and accuracy, how recent the poll is, polling method, frequency of polling from one source, and more. Your statement that they use the "most recent poll of each individual poll" is also incorrect. There may be multiple polls from one pollster included from different time periods; the weighting, however, will be reduced on a sliding downward scale over time. The differences in polling methodology between say RCP and 538 generally does not produce significant differences when looking at aggregate national polling like presidential approval. As of this moment RCP's approval rating for Biden is currently 44.1% and for 538 it is 44.6%. It's really in the much more difficult state polling where you'll tend to see larger differences and it's the exceptional accuracy exhibited by 538 in some of the past presidential and senate elections that has been their claim to fame for their more complex, highly analyzed, and weighted methodology. I say some because the accuracy of their poll aggregation to actual results in a given election, particularly at the state level, will depend on the quality and accuracy of the many polling services and the volatility and polarization exhibited in individual elections. It's likely the most important factor for presidential forecasts, however, is the number of swing states in play and how narrow the margin is in each of those.

Because their methodology is complex relative to what other aggregators use and is readily available on their site, I won't go into further detail. I will say, it bears little to no resemblance to your description.

Whereas the graph for Trump, and Obama, has been interpolated already since we know what all of his numbers are.

Interpolated? No, they're the same methodology described above and are exactly how the approval aggregation appeared for each day in a term during their administrations. That's the purpose of the comparative graphs. It's the same methodology aggregated and displayed separately for each day in their respective terms. They are aggregated day by day, I don't know where you're coming up with interpolation. 538 graphs the data using a local polynomial regression which by design is somewhat coarse to better show movement in the polls, but the method is exactly the same for each aggregated point, on each graph, for each president. It's a mystery what difference you believe there is when you write "since we know what all of his numbers are"; as the only numbers they use are the numbers they know, regardless of whether it's a current or past presidential office holder. Again, they are simply aggregating, day by day, the president's daily aggregated approval compared to the same days in a predecessor's term. That part of the equation is pretty simple and direct.

Quinnipiac's poll is the most recent update.  So, that average is relying on just one recent update and the rest outdated by a couple of weeks, at best. 

No, Quinnipiac's poll is not the most recent poll. There are several that are more recent. In fact, it is the oldest of all the October polls. Despite that fact, it is currently the highest weighted poll with a 1.85 weighting as they have a high pollster rating grade and a reasonable sample size.

Now perhaps Quinnipiac is an outlier and Biden is actually doing better then [than] Trump, but we will not know until the others perform new polls.

Quinnipiac is an outlier and a bit dated relative to several more recent polls, but still has the highest weighting for the reasons previously described. As for the rest of your statement, refer to the posts above.

There is your basic middle school math lesson of the day.  I will be testing you on it next week.   ;)

Yeah, thanks. Learned a lot.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2021, 11:35:11 pm by TechTalk »
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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11664 on: October 13, 2021, 09:20:13 pm »

even with the media...

Oh yes, don't forget to mention the media... as if that's some single entity. It wouldn't be a day with sunshine without mentioning the media.

My prediction, Youngkin will win VA this month

Could be; time will tell. Since you have taken up the burden of teaching polling methodology, here are the current polls from RCP and 538

RCP - McAuliffe 48.8% / Youngkin 45.4% (McAuliffe +3.4%)

538 - McAuliffe 48.1% / Youngkin 45.5% (McAuliffe +2.5%)

Well within the margin of error. Could go either way based on current polling.

My prediction, if McAuliffe wins Trump will say it was a phony rigged election. If Youngkin wins, Trump will take the lion's share of the credit.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11665 on: October 14, 2021, 07:07:46 am »

Regardless how you analyze the polls, Biden's have tanked. People and leaders around the world see him as an ineffective leader.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11666 on: October 14, 2021, 08:16:00 am »

... and leaders around the world see him as an ineffective leader. ...

Which "leaders around the world"
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11667 on: October 14, 2021, 09:23:32 am »

Which "leaders around the world"
Why ask the forum fabulist?
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Frans Waterlander

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11668 on: October 14, 2021, 12:13:50 pm »

Why ask the forum fabulist?
Instead of harping on Alan with 1-or 2-liners, why not engage and name all the leaders around the world that regard Biden as an effective leader? That can't be too difficult for a lefty like yourself? (Yep, my post is a 2-liner as well, just to go with the flow)
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11669 on: October 14, 2021, 12:28:02 pm »

Instead of harping on Alan with 1-or 2-liners, why not engage and name all the leaders around the world that regard Biden as an effective leader? That can't be too difficult for a lefty like yourself? (Yep, my post is a 2-liner as well, just to go with the flow)
Not at all strange or unusual you can't name all/any the of leaders around the world that regard Biden as an ineffective leader like fabulist Alan.
You two related?
He (Alan)can actually snap a photograph and provide one for the audience here unlike you. :D That task (hobby) must be too difficult for lefty yet another fabulist like yourself (working towards the title of bigger hammer here  ::)).
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11670 on: October 14, 2021, 01:14:11 pm »



My prediction, if McAuliffe wins Trump will say it was a phony rigged election. If Youngkin wins, Trump will take the lion's share of the credit.

Finally, you are right about something.   ;D
« Last Edit: October 14, 2021, 01:26:07 pm by JoeKitchen »
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11671 on: October 14, 2021, 01:25:51 pm »

Regardless how you analyze the polls, Biden's have tanked. People and leaders around the world see him as an ineffective leader.

And it's only going to get worse.  I think Biden has pretty much boxed himself into a corner where a recession is now impossible to avoid.  It's not going to be pretty. 

He has created three different groups of people who, by themselves would not have much of an effect, but together are going to be a drag on the economy.  Those groups are (1) those whom have, what is now, an illogical paranoia of C-19 and will not return back to normal life, (2) people whom have been taught that they can not work because the gov't will always take care of them, and (3) those whom will now quit over the vaccines mandate.  All of these Biden created, and he could dissipate them all today, but doing so would require upsetting his progressive base.   

On top of that, we are now in an inflationary cycle and there is no way to end one without causing pain.  If nothing is done, inflation will continue and we will get a mild recession.  If more money is printed and the welfare state expanded, inflation will get worse and cause a deep recession.  If easing is scaled back on and interest rates raised we will get a recession in the short term. 

Then, add to that, that no matter what is done, the supply chain issues will not be fixed until well into 2022.  Santa wont even have coal to give out for Christmas. 
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11672 on: October 14, 2021, 01:59:31 pm »

I think Biden has pretty much boxed himself into a corner where a recession is now impossible to avoid.  It's not going to be pretty. 
Then, add to that, that no matter what is done, the supply chain issues will not be fixed until well into 2022.  Santa wont even have coal to give out for Christmas.
"Predictions are hard, especially about the future."- Yogi Berra
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Frans Waterlander

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11673 on: October 14, 2021, 02:19:44 pm »

Not at all strange or unusual you can't name all/any the of leaders around the world that regard Biden as an ineffective leader like fabulist Alan.
There you go again. Instead of engaging with Alan on the issue of world leaders' opinion of Biden, you go off on a tangent and make assertions about me. Grow a spine Andrew and man up.
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11674 on: October 14, 2021, 02:28:50 pm »

There you go again. Instead of engaging with Alan on the issue of world leaders' opinion of Biden, you go off on a tangent and make assertions about me. Grow a spine Andrew and man up.
There you go again**, entering the forum and pooping on the floor (grow a spine), utterly unable to provide any evidence you've got anything useful, accurate or factual to add to this topic and confirming to your recent readers you are unable to ever show us you can create a photo. Or as just pointed out for all to see (expect you) that it isn't at all strange or unusual you can't name all/any the of leaders around the world that regard Biden as an ineffective leader like fabulist Alan. Exactly what I'd expect from a non photographer who writes self published political fiction**.

**"On the internet you can be anything you want. It’s strange that so many people choose to be stupid".- Anonymous
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Frans Waterlander

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11675 on: October 14, 2021, 02:33:53 pm »

There you go again**, entering the forum and pooping on the floor (grow a spine), utterly unable to provide any evidence you've got anything useful, accurate or factual to add to this topic and confirming to your recent readers you are unable to ever show us you can create a photo. Or as just pointed out for all to see (expect you) that it isn't at all strange or unusual you can't name all/any the of leaders around the world that regard Biden as an ineffective leader like fabulist Alan. Exactly what I'd expect from a non photographer who writes self published political fiction.
"**On the internet you can be anything you want. It’s strange that so many people choose to be stupid".- Anonymous
Just as I expected, not engaging in constructive interactions, not growing a spine, not manning up. And please don't worry about my ability to enjoy photography. I'm doing just fine and enjoying my new Nikon Z 50.
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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11676 on: October 14, 2021, 02:36:15 pm »

Regardless how you analyze the polls, Biden's have tanked.

Well, Biden's aggregate approval rating at this point in his term (Day 268) isn't as high as Obama's was, but is considerably better than Trump's. Poor Donald never got any higher than 44.8% throughout the entirety of his term and that was only briefly for a couple of short periods. Trump's approval rating was quite low for the entire four years. In defense of Trump's poor approval rating, I will note that he was always intentionally seeking to divide the nation. After the last election of course his mission changed to undermining democracy thru a constant barrage of lies which continues to this day.

538 presidential approval ratings Day 268 of term: Obama - 52.4% / Trump - 37.7% / Biden - 44.7%
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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11677 on: October 14, 2021, 02:37:56 pm »

Just as I expected, not engaging in constructive interactions, not growing a spine, not manning up.

True. I haven't seen a single post from you with any one of those attributes.
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11678 on: October 14, 2021, 02:39:08 pm »

Just as I expected, not engaging in constructive interactions, not growing a spine, not manning up. And please don't worry about my ability to enjoy photography. I'm doing just fine and enjoying my new Nikon Z 50.
Just as I expected, no photo's agan but maybe you do actually own a camera. Can you use it?
I don't worry you don't enjoy photography. Like your writings here, it is an utter lack of evidence you can actually take, let alone make a photo that has always been in question.
Please consider cleaning up your poop before leaving for another month, only to return without any evidence your writing should be taken at all seriously.
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #11679 on: October 14, 2021, 02:41:17 pm »

538 presidential approval ratings Day 268 of term: Obama - 52.4% / Trump - 37.7% / Biden - 44.7%
Please don't confuse the hammer(s) (A and F) by using actual facts; as those facts simply can't penetrate the hammers unreality bubbles.  :D
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