How to Use Expert Opinion

[JoeKitchen]

And you know this how?

Because that is human nature. you stick to what you know. 

Dr Fauci was asked point blank if he took into account the economic concerns with the shut down.  He said no.  That pretty much sums it up.  Dr. Fauci is primarily concerned with the pandemic, not the economics by his own admission.  That is why you need many different experts giving opinions that all need to be weighed by one leader. 

[elliot_n]

What I do know is that criticism directed toward Trump (and the Swedes for not shuting down their economy) is misdirected.

Sweden's coronavirus policy has been entirely dictated by public health experts — the politicians don't get a look in. Sweden's whole administrative system is founded on a deference to expertise. Sweden is run by experts.

[Jeremy Roussak]

What about Alan?

Which one?

Jeremy

[chez]

Because that is human nature. you stick to what you know. 

Dr Fauci was asked point blank if he took into account the economic concerns with the shut down.  He said no.  That pretty much sums it up.  Dr. Fauci is primarily concerned with the pandemic, not the economics by his own admission.  That is why you need many different experts giving opinions that all need to be weighed by one leader.

Yes except that leader does not take the advice from experts because "he's really, really smart...at least that is what he's been told". His totally off the wall comments are always needing to be mopped up by the experts. Sort of like the clown walking behind the horses in a parade cleaning up all the shit that has been dumped.

[JoeKitchen]

Yes except that leader does not take the advice from experts because "he's really, really smart...at least that is what he's been told". His totally off the wall comments are always needing to be mopped up by the experts. Sort of like the clown walking behind the horses in a parade cleaning up all the shit that has been dumped.

Only every expert interviewed said that their advice was taken, repeatably. 

[chez]

Only every expert interviewed said that their advice was taken, repeatably.

Then why all the mop up after the news conference?

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Dr Fauci was asked point blank if he took into account the economic concerns with the shut down.  He said no.

Of course, because he was not asked about the economic concerns since that is not his field of expertise.
Geez, how hard can that be to grasp?

That is why you need many different experts giving opinions that all need to be weighed by one leader.

Correct, a leader who can then make an informed decision, not based on a hunch, but on expert advice.

[faberryman]

Which one?

Klein

[John Camp]

The original assertion that all experts wear blinders is absurd on the face of it, as is every assertion about "all people." It a comfort only to bigots, and is similar in form to "black people are lazy," or "white men can't jump." I'm currently re-reading "The Prize" by Daniel Yergin, a Yale professor who won the Pulitzer Prize for the book, which concerns the effects of oil on world history. He is possibly the greatest current authority ("expert") on the economics of oil. Go read about him on Wikipedia and tell me that he wears blinders -- and this is just a guy who I happen to be reading right now. He is not atypical. The thing about most experts is, they're smart people; and most smart people are expert in something. That does not mean that they wear blinders. In fact, I don't even know why I'm bothering to write this; the original assertion is so stupid it makes my teeth hurt.

[JoeKitchen]

Of course, because he was not asked about the economic concerns since that is not his field of expertise.
Geez, how hard can that be to grasp?

Correct, a leader who can then make an informed decision, not based on a hunch, but on expert advice.

Exactly what I am getting at, experts are used for their narrow field of expertise.  Leaders need to consult many different experts, which is unlike the situation the media has created now insisting that we only listen to one kind of expert, medical. 

[JoeKitchen]

The original assertion that all experts wear blinders is absurd on the face of it, as is every assertion about "all people." It a comfort only to bigots, and is similar in form to "black people are lazy," or "white men can't jump." I'm currently re-reading "The Prize" by Daniel Yergin, a Yale professor who won the Pulitzer Prize for the book, which concerns the effects of oil on world history. He is possibly the greatest current authority ("expert") on the economics of oil. Go read about him on Wikipedia and tell me that he wears blinders -- and this is just a guy who I happen to be reading right now. He is not atypical. The thing about most experts is, they're smart people; and most smart people are expert in something. That does not mean that they wear blinders. In fact, I don't even know why I'm bothering to write this; the original assertion is so stupid it makes my teeth hurt.

No, the comparison you made in the first couple sentence are not the same John and has nothing to do with bigotry.  It is by definition.  It is not the equivalent of saying what you wrote but more like "black people typically have darker skin then white people," which is true the majority of the time.  Just like experts only have an expertise on their narrow field of study, the majority of the time. 

I specialize in architectural photography, which is my expertise.  Now, am I better then the average person at shooting lifestyle, absolutely, but I am not an expert by any stretch in that type of photography.  I am not better then a lifestyle photographer at it, and assuming so would not be bigotry.  It would be a very safe and natural assumption. 

So I would highly recommend that if you want to learn about lifestyle photography, to talk to a lifestyle photographer.  Just like if you want to take into account the economic effects of this, talk to a economist because a medical expert will not have an expertise in economics. 

Same difference as to what we are talking about here. 

[John Camp]

No, the comparison you made in the first couple sentence are not the same John and has nothing to do with bigotry.  It is by definition.  It is not the equivalent of saying what you wrote but more like "black people typically have darker skin then white people," which is true the majority of the time.  Just like experts only have an expertise on their narrow field of study, the majority of the time. 

I specialize in architectural photography, which is my expertise.  Now, am I better then the average person at shooting lifestyle, absolutely, but I am not an expert by any stretch in that type of photography.  I am not better then a lifestyle photographer at it, and assuming so would not be bigotry.  It would be a very safe and natural assumption. 

So I would highly recommend that if you want to learn about lifestyle photography, to talk to a lifestyle photographer. 

Same difference as to what we are talking about here.

You have that completely wrong, Joe. You are an expert in architectural photography. Does that mean that you can't appreciate lifestyle? Does that mean you can't argue cogently about the need to open the economy (an argument which has nothing to do with photography?) Does that mean you can't understand cheese-making, because all your "expert" ability is used up on photography?

This is the old cliche, "When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail." That's something a fork-lift operator might believe, but nobody who is actually smart.
 
What the original poster is asserting is the "experts' can't see past their expertise to other concerns. "They always wear blinders." That suggests the doctors only think about medical concerns, but that's obviously incorrect -- we have doctors, "experts", arguing that we should open the economy, and arguing it on skeptical media networks like CNN and in the Times and the WSJ. Very smart people, and most experts are smart, have, in my experience, a wide range of interests, and are often expert in more than one thing. I once knew a surgeon who was an expert on Persian carpets, for Christ's sakes. My wife was once on an orchestra board, where I met a radiologist who was one of the best violinists in the city. Anyway, I'm done with this thread. Too dumb.

[JoeKitchen]

Just to give an example of how I feel experts goof with other subject areas, here is a personal example I deal with all of the time. 

I am an architectural photographer, and as such, I always prefer to keep the vertical lines of buildings straight and parallel, with the exception of extreme upward views.  It is such an engrained part of my process that when the lines are off, it is the first thing I notice in an image.  I have been doing this for like 15 years and it not something I can turn off really. 

Now with shooting people, this is not a real concern.  However, if I am asked to shoot someone, I instinctively go out of my way to make sure any vertical building lines in the background are parallel.  I know it does not matter when shooting a person, but I cant help get annoyed by it. 

I see the same thing when a lifestyle shooter attempts to photograph interiors.  Their lighting is totally off, concentrating on front lighting the room like you would with a person. 

This same thing happens with all experts.  You get so entrenched in dealing with your narrow area that when you look at another, you instinctively entrench back into what is important to your expertise even if it is not important to the new subject you are looking at.  It's human nature. 

[JoeKitchen]

You have that completely wrong, Joe. You are an expert in architectural photography. Does that mean that you can't appreciate lifestyle? Does that mean you can't argue cogently about the need to open the economy (an argument which has nothing to do with photography?) Does that mean you can't understand cheese-making, because all your "expert" ability is used up on photography?

This is the old cliche, "When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail." That's something a fork-lift operator might believe, but nobody who is actually smart.
 
What the original poster is asserting is the "experts' can't see past their expertise to other concerns. "They always wear blinders." That suggests the doctors only think about medical concerns, but that's obviously incorrect -- we have doctors, "experts", arguing that we should open the economy, and arguing it on skeptical media networks like CNN and in the Times and the WSJ. Very smart people, and most experts are smart, have, in my experience, a wide range of interests, and are often expert in more than one thing. I once knew a surgeon who was an expert on Persian carpets, for Christ's sakes. My wife was once on an orchestra board, where I met a radiologist who was one of the best violinists in the city. Anyway, I'm done with this thread. Too dumb.

Perhaps I dont feel as strongly about the OP with the blinders statement, but people revert back to what is important to their expertise, not what may be important to the new subject at hand. 

Basic understanding of a subject (like cheese making) does not make me an expert by any stretch.  Although I can argue for opening the economy, and I have my preferences for sure, I would not advise anyone to hire me to consult on the subject. 

Another great example is when JFK hired Robert McNamara, who was a very smart person indeed.  However, as a military leader, he was truly horrible.  He was the one that coined the phrase, "there is no such thing as strategy, only crisis management."  He reverted back to efficiency in consumer manufacturing (his expertise) when in charge and took our military equipment from the world's best to the worse.  It was not until he was gone and new leaders in the military had the fortitude to accept everything they were doing was wrong that "The Suck" finally started to end. 

[faberryman]

Sure experts are "experts" in their field which can be narrow...but that does not mean in any way they are totally ignorant in other fields. I know surgeons that are experts in kidney surgeries but know a hell of a lot more than me about anything else to do with the human body. This friend of mine is also amazing with hockey trivia. You seem to categorize an expert as some nerd that only has one very fine focus in life...that's just false.

Sure, but in a crisis they will revert back to their field of expertise as being the most important, to them.

Because that is human nature. you stick to what you know.

Boy do I know that is true. I have an expertise in photography. Last month I was playing frisbee with my dog. He ran into the street and was hit by a car. I ran out to him and could tell he had a broken leg and was bleeding internally. Obviously a crisis. The funny thing is the only thing I could think about was what shutter speed and aperture I would use to take a picture of the scene. It is just human nature to revert to your area expertise. Fortunately, my wife, who is not an expert at anything, gently lifted the dog up and took him to the vet. Luckily, he’s doing fine now.. There are really downsides to being an expert.

[JoeKitchen]

Boy do I know that is true. I have an expertise in photography. Last month I was playing frisbee with my dog. He ran into the street and was hit by a car. I ran out to him and could tell he had a broken leg and was bleeding internally. Obviously a crisis. The funny thing is the only thing I could think about was what shutter speed and aperture I would use to take a picture of the scene. It is just human nature to revert to your area expertise. Fortunately, my wife, who is not an expert at anything, gently lifted the dog up and took him to the vet. Luckily, he’s doing fine now.. There are really downsides to being an expert.

Dont be silly. 

This is more like an equivalent example.

A physicist, an engineer and a mathematician were all in a hotel sleeping when a fire broke out in their respective rooms.
The physicist woke up, saw the fire, ran over to his desk, pulled out his CRC, and began working out all sorts of fluid dynamics equations. After a couple minutes, he threw down his pencil, got a graduated cylinder out of his suitcase, and measured out a precise amount of water. He threw it on the fire, extinguishing it, with not a drop wasted, and went back to sleep.
The engineer woke up, saw the fire, ran into the bathroom, turned on the faucets full-blast, flooding out the entire apartment, which put out the fire, and went back to sleep.
The mathematician woke up, saw the fire, ran over to his desk, began working through theorems, lemmas, hypotheses , you-name-it, and after a few minutes, put down his pencil triumphantly and exclaimed, "I have *proven* that I *can* put the fire out!" He then went back to sleep.

[KLaban]

Which one?

Jeremy

The one you don't berate.

Oh, wait...

[faberryman]

Dont be silly. 

This is more like an equivalent example.

A physicist, an engineer and a mathematician were all in a hotel sleeping when a fire broke out in their respective rooms.
The physicist woke up, saw the fire, ran over to his desk, pulled out his CRC, and began working out all sorts of fluid dynamics equations. After a couple minutes, he threw down his pencil, got a graduated cylinder out of his suitcase, and measured out a precise amount of water. He threw it on the fire, extinguishing it, with not a drop wasted, and went back to sleep.
The engineer woke up, saw the fire, ran into the bathroom, turned on the faucets full-blast, flooding out the entire apartment, which put out the fire, and went back to sleep.
The mathematician woke up, saw the fire, ran over to his desk, began working through theorems, lemmas, hypotheses , you-name-it, and after a few minutes, put down his pencil triumphantly and exclaimed, "I have *proven* that I *can* put the fire out!" He then went back to sleep.

You do know that your example is a joke, don't you, because it is not altogehter clear from your other posts that you do?

[JoeKitchen]

You do know that your example is a joke, don't you, because it is not altogehter clear from your other posts that you do?

Yes, of course I do, just like yours was as well.  Or at least I hope so, for I hate to have an heart attack with only you in the room if it was not. 

I stand by my other posts though.  Just like McNamara destroyed the US military by going back to his prior expertise of efficiency, most others will do the same thing. 

[Alan Klein]

What about Alan?

Thanks for the compliment.