PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[Chris Kern]

Nobody wants to blow up anything in Canada.

I feel sorry for the Canadians.  They must be awfully bored.  Their prime minister apparently doesn't know more than the country's medical experts, and never seems to contradict or attack them.  As far as I know, he hasn't withdrawn Canadian support from even a single international organization since he took office.  The provincial governments seem to follow the national health and safety guidance and when is the last time you heard right-wing Canadian activists complain that face masks violate their rights?  Speaking of which, where are the Canadian conspiracy theory groups?  Canada doesn't even have a Fox News of its own, so the poor Canadians have to watch the CBC (yawn) or the Lamestream Media from the United States.  It's a pretty poor excuse for a country and it's no small wonder so many Canadians envy the way we have handled the pandemic down here.  It's surprising more of them aren't streaming across the border and heading south to Florida or Texas, but no doubt many are just waiting until the weather gets colder and the 'flu season starts down here.

[chez]

After Covid, some manufacturing will come back to the US as out-of-work service oriented Americans will take low paying manufacturing jobs.

So a race to compete with the China's, Vietnam's and India's of the world. Now that's progress.

[Peter McLennan]

I feel sorry for the Canadians.  They must be awfully bored.  Their prime minister apparently doesn't know more than the country's medical experts, and never seems to contradict or attack them.  As far as I know, he hasn't withdrawn Canadian support from even a single international organization since he took office.  The provincial governments seem to follow the national health and safety guidance and when is the last time you heard right-wing Canadian activists complain that face masks violate their rights?  Speaking of which, where are the Canadian conspiracy theory groups?  Canada doesn't even have a Fox News of its own, so the poor Canadians have to watch the CBC (yawn) or the Lamestream Media from the United States.  It's a pretty poor excuse for a country and it's no small wonder so many Canadians envy the way we have handled the pandemic down here.  It's surprising more of them aren't streaming across the border and heading south to Florida or Texas, but no doubt many are just waiting until the weather gets colder and the 'flu season starts down here.

True, dat.  It’s what we are: boring.  And happy to be so.

[Alan Klein]

As has been pointed out several times, the US is the world's second largest manufacturing economy. There are plenty of jobs for robots.

But there is some irony in the idea of of low-paying factory jobs returning to the US because of unemployed former service workers. But that seems unlikely to me. Why would companies move labour intensive manufacturing back to US soil? As soon as the post-Covid economy improves a bit, people will quit those lousy low-paying jobs.

I hope you're right.  But I don't think the same number of service jobs will come back.  There were too many restaurants, stores, etc even before the Covid.  With higher unemployment, and lower wage points, some products will make sense to be brought back to the US.  OF course, if the government keeps raising minimum wage levels, then those jobs will not come back in any shape and there will just be more unemployment for the poor.

[Alan Klein]

So a race to compete with the China's, Vietnam's and India's of the world. Now that's progress.

It's terrible and I hope I'm wrong.  But we're going so far into debt, we're going to impoverish ourselves. People will take any jobs they can find just to eat. A lot of the rest of the world will follow suit as their debt levels go out of sight as well.

[Robert Roaldi]

So a race to compete with the China's, Vietnam's and India's of the world. Now that's progress.

Standards of living in those countries is going up, as are salaries, benefits, car purchases, etc.

Read the first sentence of this wiki page, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_Chinahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_China.

Things have changed in the world. A lot.

[chez]

Standards of living in those countries is going up, as are salaries, benefits, car purchases, etc.

Read the first sentence of this wiki page, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_Chinahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_China.

Things have changed in the world. A lot.

Average wage in Vietnam is $150/month. Average wage in India is $4.50/ day. Still a huge difference from what is expected in the US.

[faberryman]

OF course, if the government keeps raising minimum wage levels, then those jobs will not come back in any shape and there will just be more unemployment for the poor.

The last time the government raised the federal minimum wage was 2009. It was raised from $6.55 to $7.25. If you work 40 hours a week, 52 weeks a year, you'll earn $15,080, less social security and federal, state and local tax withholding.

[Alan Klein]

The last time the government raised the federal minimum wage was 2009. It was raised from $6.55 to $7.25. If you work 40 hours a week, 52 weeks a year, you'll earn $15,080, less social security and federal, state and local tax withholding.

States have their own minimum wage laws separate from the Federal government.  Some are reaching $15 soon such as in California and some other states.  That's $35,000 including employer paid SS and Medicare a year for a kid who sweeps the floor at McDonald's.  That just eliminates jobs for the poor as employees are cut and robots are installed to reduce salary expenses. 

It also tells people whose skills are only worth let's say $8 an hour that they aren;t going to get hired because their productivity isn;t worth $15 an hour.  So they stay unemployed and feel rejected by society and wind up selling drugs and eventually going to jail.  Better to have a job at $8 an hour and work themselves up as their productivity increases.  Minimum wage is just a feel good system that hurts the poor and young.

[Craig Lamson]

The last time the government raised the federal minimum wage was 2009. It was raised from $6.55 to $7.25. If you work 40 hours a week, 52 weeks a year, you'll earn $15,080, less social security and federal, state and local tax withholding.

Minimum wage jobs were never intended to be a career choice.

[chez]

States have their own minimum wage laws separate from the Federal government.  Some are reaching $15 soon such as in California and some other states.  That's $35,000 including employer paid SS and Medicare a year for a kid who sweeps the floor at McDonald's.  That just eliminates jobs for the poor as employees are cut and robots are installed to reduce salary expenses. 

It also tells people whose skills are only worth let's say $8 an hour that they aren;t going to get hired because their productivity isn;t worth $15 an hour.  So they stay unemployed and feel rejected by society and wind up selling drugs and eventually going to jail.  Better to have a job at $8 an hour and work themselves up as their productivity increases.  Minimum wage is just a feel good system that hurts the poor and young.

I doubt anyone can live in California for $35,000 a year.

[faberryman]

I doubt anyone can live in California for $35,000 a year.

California's unemployment rate was 3.9% before COVID, which is only slightly higher than the national rate of 3.5%, which might indicate  that $15/hour wasn't that big a damper on employment, unless you make the argument that Alan did that all the people that weren't worth $15/hour became drug addicts and ended up in jail, taking them out of the employment pool altogether. It is unclear to me that if a company were willing to pay someone the going rate of $15/hour to sweep the floor, how anyone could not be qualified to do the job.

[Alan Klein]

California's unemployment rate was 3.9% before COVID, which is only slightly higher than the national rate of 3.5%, which might indicate  that $15/hour wasn't that big a damper on employment, unless you make the argument that Alan did that all the people that weren't worth $15/hour became drug addicts and ended up in jail, taking them out of the employment pool altogether. It is unclear to me that if a company were willing to pay someone the going rate of $15/hour to sweep the floor, how anyone could not be qualified to do the job.

The way unemployment is  measured, is that a person still has to be looking for a job to be considered unemployed.  If he's out of work and has given up looking for a job, which many young people and poor people have reached, then they're not counted in the unemployment rate.  There are millions of out-of-work people like that who are no longer counted as unemployed. 

Regarding not be qualified at $15 has to do with too little productivity.  Regardless of the job, some people are more productive than others.  So an employer is not going to pay $15 to a person who can only produce value worth $10.  So the less productive in society can't get a job because the minimum wage has priced him out of the marketplace.  Had the employer been allowed to hire him at $10, they would have knowing they're getting $10 of productivity from him. So instead, they'll find a employee, maybe a college graduate who will greet patrons as well as sweep the floor,  that is providing $15 worth of value. 

[faberryman]

The way unemployment is  measured, is that a person still has to be looking for a job to be considered unemployed.  If he's out of work and has given up looking for a job, which many young people and poor people have reached, then they're not counted in the unemployment rate.  There are millions of out-of-work people like that who are no longer counted as unemployed.

Everyone knows that. 

Regarding not be qualified at $15 has to do with too little productivity.  Regardless of the job, some people are more productive than others.  So an employer is not going to pay $15 to a person who can only produce value worth $10.  So the less productive in society can't get a job because the minimum wage has priced him out of the marketplace.  Had the employer been allowed to hire him at $10, they would have knowing they're getting $10 of productivity from him. So instead, they'll find a employee, maybe a college graduate who will greet patrons as well as sweep the floor,  that is providing $15 worth of value.

How much productivity do you need to sweep the floor? Do you want some guy with a broom greeting you at the door when you go out to eat?

[Alan Klein]

Think of it this way.  If someone was selling a lens for $100.  But the lens is only worth $50, the seller will never sell the lens.  People will buy a $100 lens if they have to spend $100 that's worth $100.  The seller has over-priced his lens out of the market. 

Ditto with a worker.  No one is going to pay him $15 an hour if he's only worth $7.50.  The employer will find someone worth $15 an hour.  So the less qualified in society, the ones we thought we were helping with minimum wage, wind up with no jobs roaming around the streets getting into trouble.  So in our effort to help poor less qualified people, we wind up hurting them. 

[Alan Klein]

Everyone knows that. 

How much productivity do you need to sweep the floor? Do you want some guy with a broom greeting you at the door when you go out to eat?

I explained that.  Yes.  IF I owned the hamburger joint, I would hire a guy who would sweep the floor, the bathrooms, serve the meals, and greet people at the door maybe even take orders.  But the guy who really can't do that, won't get that job and I won't hire him just to sweep the floor.  He'll stay unemployed.

[faberryman]

I explained that.  Yes.  IF I owned the hamburger joint, I would hire a guy who would sweep the floor, the bathrooms, serve the meals, and greet people at the door maybe even take orders.

Maybe he could even cook the meals, keep the books, and wash your car on Saturdays too.

[Alan Klein]

Everyone knows that. 

...

Obviously you don;t  You explained in your previous post that the California unemployment rate was 3.9%.  No it wasn't.  Not the real rate.  That's  because the unemployed who are no longer looking for work are not in that percentage.  The real unemployment rate including those people might be 8.9%.  The extra 5% are for all the people who have given up looking for work a long time ago because no one will hire them. 

[Alan Klein]

Maybe he could even cook the meals, keep the books, and wash your car on Saturdays too.

I'll pay him $20 an hour if he does those things too.

[faberryman]

Obviously you don;t  You explained in your previous post that the California unemployment rate was 3.9%.  No it wasn't.  Not the real rate.  That's  because the unemployed who are no longer looking for work are not in that percentage.  The real unemployment rate including those people might be 8.9%.  The extra 5% are for all the people who have given up looking for work a long time ago because no one will hire them.

As I said, everyone knows that. Nothing new here. You are not shining light on the darkness. The "real rate" is not some secret that only economists and guys like you on the internet know about. When you start complaining about Trump not using the "real rate", maybe I'll reconsider. Until then, I will continue to use the U3 (Official) Unemployment Rate just like everyone else. You can be the odd man out and use the "real rate" if you think it makes you look smarter. Hint: it doesn't. Jesus. How pathetic.