That's exactly what I'm seeing in these parts, lots of cars on the road, people working, restaurants partly open, stores open doing business albeit with some restrictions. Where is this world-wide crushing depression that Alan is constantly worrying about?
I hope I'm wrong. But estimates are that America's GDP will be down $3.4 trillion this year, or roughly 15%. I heard another estimate at $5 trillion which would be about 25%.
I just checked Fitch ratings estimates in Jun 29, 2020. They seem more optimistic, maybe:
"China's recovery also continued at a solid pace in May and we have raised our 2020 GDP forecast to 1.2% from 0.7% in the previous GEO, the first upwards forecast revision for a long time. We have also upgraded forecasts for Australia and Korea, respectively to -2.7% from -5.0% and to -0.9% from -1.2%. We now expect Germany's economy to shrink by 6.3% in 2020 compared to an earlier forecast of -6.7%, owing to additional fiscal policy easing. The eurozone forecast is, correspondingly, now -8% compared to -8.2% in the previous GEO.
We have affirmed the US 2020 GDP forecast at -5.6% following recent improvements in the data but we still expect the economy to decline by 9.9% (34% annualised) in 2Q20 and the recent increase in daily new virus cases increases downside risks.
We have lowered our forecasts for Brazil, the UK, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia. The virus outbreak continues to intensify in Brazil and we now expect GDP to decline by 7% in 2020 (previous forecast -6%) despite aggressive policy easing. We have cut Mexico's forecast to -9.1% (from -7.4%) following very weak incoming industrial production data and the extension of restrictions and against a backdrop of a modest policy easing response. We now expect the UK economy to fall by 9% this year (-7.8% previously) with a longer-than-anticipated lockdown and incoming data now pointing to a 15% decline in GDP in 2Q20."
