PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

You are lucky; others are not.

Others= 0.3%

[kers]

Others= 0.3%

still 100.000 -  as much as all US soldiers that have died in wars after WOII- in only 3 months time.
and the percentage of the corona infected above 65 that died is much much higher.

[BernardLanguillier]

Others= 0.3%

The real number is probably at least double that for now.

We may reach 300,000 casualties by year end.

Each of these man and woman with a family, a history and many upcoming projects. So many of these deaths could have been avoided had the needed measures been taken quickly instead of wasting weeks downplaying the pandemic.

It really makes me sick.

Cheers,
Bernard

[James Clark]

Nice strawman, James. Playing to the home crowd?

What strawman?  Again, to be fair, you and Craig did not tie yourself in knots defending it - both of you said you disagreed (and both of you qualified with some hint that maybe Trump actually has reason to believe Joe Scarborough is a murderer, but whatever...)

Nevertheless, the fact remains that if all were going to get with this blatantly clear assault on the same things you've claimed were bright lines to hold dear since time immortal is, "well, hey, the liberals are really mean to Trump, so meh.." that's really discouraging.

I said it before, if Trump wants a return to the Fairness Doctrine, I'm all for it, but let's be honest - he doesn't, and you know it.

[Paulo Bizarro]

I can tell you from my personal experience (and this is not a defense of Trump) that it indeed disappeared on the 15th day. I was still coughing on the 14th day, tired, etc., and on the 15th, it just stopped and I felt normal again. I was surprised how sudden the change was. Like a miracle.

Glad you made it through. Hopefully, without permanent organ damage, like many others that have also recovered.

Unfortunately, 360,000+ worldwide did not benefit from "miracles" and died.

[Robert Roaldi]

Florida's success may not be as good as previously suggested, https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article242557271.html. De Santis accused of fiddling with the stats.

[Robert Roaldi]

I can tell you from my personal experience (and this is not a defense of Trump) that it indeed disappeared on the 15th day. I was still coughing on the 14th day, tired, etc., and on the 15th, it just stopped and I felt normal again. I was surprised how sudden the change was. Like a miracle.

Getting over a virus infection is NOT the same thing as the virus disappearing from a population.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Getting over a virus infection is NOT the same thing as the virus disappearing from a population.

Oh, for God’s sake, Robert! Where did I say it is? I specifically pointed out that my experience is not a defense of Trump, in other words, doesn’t apply on disappearance from population.

I merely pointed out the miracle aspect, that it suddenly disappeared.

On a related subject, the UK is complaining that the infection is slowing down so much as to make their attempts to create a vaccine futile.

So, Brits, get out and infect each other more... for science.

[elliot_n]

Others= 0.3%

1.5% here in UK.

[Robert Roaldi]

I merely pointed out the miracle aspect, that it suddenly disappeared.

On a related subject, the UK is complaining that the infection is slowing down so much as to make their attempts to create a vaccine futile.

Miracles can happen! Amen.

Who in the UK is saying this? By that "logic", if true, then vaccines for regular flu were a waste of time and effort too, weren't they?

[Peter McLennan]

I merely pointed out the miracle aspect, that it suddenly disappeared.

Y’know what, Slobodan?

It’s not all about you.

[JoeKitchen]

Others= 0.3%

The CDC this week revised the infection fatality rate lower for all age groups. 

For those under 50 in good health, it is no more then 0.05%, or half the fatality rate of the flu. 

Seniors should still be concerned and protected.  However, as I have said before, there is no longer any reason for everyone to stay locked in.  Lord knows I was not for the last 5 or 6 days, even went to a bar. 

The first day bars reopen in Philly, I'll be enjoying a pint with my foot on the brass rail in my city, and it will be glorious. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... Who in the UK is saying this?...

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/low-virus-rate-leaves-oxford-vaccine-trial-with-only-50-percent-chance-20200524-p54vvu.html?fbclid=IwAR0SNPpu7W4n8RS4AbIkAwXzCvgCkJZ_PtaOGNB1D_L4voXZDqduoQ0SYM8

(Bold mine)

Low virus rate leaves Oxford vaccine trial with 'only 50% chance'

Professor Adrian Hill said an upcoming Oxford vaccine trial, involving 10,000 volunteers, threatened to return "no result" because of low transmission of COVID-19 in the community.

Hill said that of 10,000 people recruited to test the vaccine in the coming weeks — some of whom will be given a placebo — he expected fewer than 50 people to catch the virus. If fewer than 20 test positive, then the results might be useless, he warned.

"We're in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining."

[John Camp]

I think the news stories about the Oxford vaccine have been widely misinterpreted, including by the news media itself. The problem isn't with the vaccine, and the virus isn't disappearing, it's that the vaccine trials are NOT challenge trials. In challenge trials, the vaccine recipients are deliberately exposed to (or in some cases injected with) the virus, so that each vaccine recipient is exposed to the disease. However, in many cases, including that of the covid-19 virus, challenge trials are said by many medical authorities to be unethical. (A doctor from Columbia University in New York, whose name I don't recall, but who comments for CNN, has made a strong case for the unethical status of challenge trials.)

The problem for the Oxford vaccine is that a relatively small proportion of the British public actually has the disease. As the social distancing and masking efforts have cut the rate of infections, it's simply difficult for those people who have been given the vaccine to get exposed to the disease. If they can't get exposed, the vaccine can't be tested.

As excited as people get about the spread of the disease, it's important to remember that right now, only about 1/2 of one percent of Americans are "confirmed" to have, or to have had, the disease. Even if the disease is much more widespread, the actual rate is probably still low. At 10x the confirmed rate, that'd still be only about 5% of the population. I don't know the rate of infection in the UK, but I suspect it's probably in the same range as that in the US.   

[JoeKitchen]

I think we need to admit, nobody really knows anything. 

WHO guidance: Healthy people should wear masks only when 'taking care of' coronavirus patients

[William Walker]

Why are you continuing this charade? Who bailed? Both Craig and I responded.

I was referring more to general behaviour and thinking as opposed to the specific "bailing" quote - it seemed to me to be the appropriate place...!

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

I think we need to admit, nobody really knows anything. 

WHO guidance: Healthy people should wear masks only when 'taking care of' coronavirus patients

I don't see how you arrive at that conclusion.

It's really simple. When you are sick/symptomatic, you should not go outside.
When you go outside, keep a distance.
When you cannot keep distance (e.g. when caring for others, or in public transportation, or busy shops), wear a mask to reduce the chance of infecting others (you might be asymptomatic or presymptomatic, but contagious).
Don't touch your mask, it can become an infection source.

Otherwise, wash your hands with soap to reduce the chance of spreading it or contracting it through physical contact. Additional disinfection with e.g. alcohol (70% or more) can help.

To avoid contracting the virus by breathing in airborne particles, one needs a different type of certified mask (not the regular surgical kind), one that filters out very small particles. They make breathing harder, so they are not comfortable after a while.

[RSL]

Is there a chart for that, Bart?

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Is there a chart for that, Bart?

Not sure, but probably yes.

It's part of our government's instructions to citizens, but the instructions are mostly in the Dutch language.

EDIT, here is an English language version of the basic plan for our particular situation (other countries may need different timing and instructions):
https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/ministeries/ministerie-van-volksgezondheid-welzijn-en-sport/documenten/publicaties/2020/05/20/poster---coronavirus-basisregels-voor-iedereen-engels

The main guideline is, do not go out unless you have a good reason, and avoid crowds, keep distance. If you do go out, wash your hands frequently.

I have not found a specific written instruction on the use of masks (they are communicated frequently on TV and Radio), but may find one yet. The main problem in the Netherlands was the shortage of those masks (they were reserved for medical personnel), but they are now available in many shops because the economy is opening up bit by bit in a phased approach, and they are mandatory when traveling in public transportation starting next week.

[RSL]

Well, I was disappointed when you didn't post a chart.