PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[JoeKitchen]

Why was the control group incorrect?

First, let me say this was a example that I studied in college in statistics to show the reason why you need to set up a proper control. 

The gist of it is that in the 60s vaccines were still relatively new and not fully accepted by the population.  Those who were fine with vaccines, and giving them to their children, at the time happened to better educated, and better educated people tend to be cleanlier.  If you have a clean childhood, your immune system does not develop as much as those whom have an unwashed childhood (cant think of a good way to put that, but you know what I mean).  So, the students who's parent did not give permission had a better developed immune, more likely to naturally fight off Polio (but certainly not 100%), and giving the vaccine to the child of the better educated group was just evening the playing field. 

Therefore, there was no real difference between the groups. 

[Alan Klein]

First, let me say this was a example that I studied in college in statistics to show the reason why you need to set up a proper control. 

The gist of it is that in the 60s vaccines were still relatively new and not fully accepted by the population.  Those who were fine with vaccines, and giving them to their children, at the time happened to better educated, and better educated people tend to be cleanlier.  If you have a clean childhood, your immune system does not develop as much as those whom have an unwashed childhood (cant think of a good way to put that, but you know what I mean).  So, the students who's parent did not give permission had a better developed immune, more likely to naturally fight off Polio (but certainly not 100%), and giving the vaccine to the child of the better educated group was just evening the playing field. 

Therefore, there was no real difference between the groups. 

You just made my earlier point.  Lies, damn lies, and statistics. 

[degrub]

No Alan, that was not number torture  , which is what your quote refers to. It was a lack of understanding the two populations that were being compared.

[Alan Klein]

No Alan, that was not number torture  , which is what your quote refers to. It was a lack of understanding the two populations that were being compared.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

[JoeKitchen]

Bad news for the Dems from Yahoo News. 

Coronavirus Cases in Georgia, Florida Continue to Decline Despite Business Openings

As an outsider looking in, the Dems whole national campaign is focused around not re-opening and staying locked down.  I know they have metrics, but the metrics are largely unattainable.  For example, CA insist they can not reopen until there is two continuous weeks of 0 C-19 deaths.  Well in the last 6 years there has never been a week with 0 flu deaths, a decease we all agree is less deadly albeit not by how much.  If a less deadly virus cant meet the metric, it is too strict and will easily be painted as a way to be against opening. 

This strategy only works if deaths spike in the states re-opening, which is not happening.  If I were a Dem and I wanted my candidate to win in November, I'd be writing my reps. 

[Robert Roaldi]

The deeper state: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/15/834874400/in-deep-challenges-president-trump-s-notion-of-a-deep-state-conspiracy. It is a podcast interview from NPR's Fresh Air with David Rohde who argues that Trump is creating his own "deep state" of apparatchnicks (my word) in various government departments whose prime qualification is loyalty to him personally rather than competence in their field. By leaving "acting" department heads in place, it also avoids Senate confirmation hearings.

Shouldn't loyalty to the country be more important than loyalty to Trump?

Aren't people worried about this behaviour?

[Alan Klein]

A nod to the Dems maybe?  After all, the House allowed a pro-Trump guy to testify as an expert witness during the impeachment. 

I also think this is another example of politicians abdicating their power so they cant be held responsible.  Bringing in medical experts that all tell them to continue the lock down gives them a way out of any backlash from their constituents who are for opening, at least in theory. 

I think many of those doing this will be in for a rude awakening though.  So far we have only seen true leadership from a hand full of politicians on this.  Rand Paul is one; the Governors of FL, TX, GA, CO, OH are amongst others. 

The only way cowering behind the medical experts will work at this point is if an extreme up tick in deaths happen.  Otherwise those who are for extending the lock down further will be viewed as not having any foresight.  I feel this is the end of the strange new progressive religion of "always listen to the experts." 

This is why I think Biden is destroying himself right now.  His team is saying we should not be opening, which only pays out politically if mass death ensues.  Otherwise, he is just looking as indecisive and cowardly as usual. 

Frankly, I think the Biden team wants to keep him locked up and quiet.  They feel the election is going to be a referendum on Trump like the mid-term election in 2018.  So the less Biden says, the better off he'll be.  So they keep him locked up in his basement.  Problem is, you don't vote for or against a candidate.  There aren't two boxes on the ballot: Yes: Trump   No:Trump.   You have to check off Biden.  And many people just don't see him as a leader.  He's not acting presidential.  He looks scared hiding out.  It reinforces people view of him as sleepy Joe, needing a nap. Voters won't come out for him. He doesn;t excite anyone.  For all Trump's faults, he makes decisions, acts, and gets things done. He takes chances.  He's engaged. Not perfectly.  But who's perfect anyway?  Meanwhile Biden's asleep.  Does anyone see Biden leading the economy back to normal?

Meanwhile, the polls are neurotically bipolar.

"A CNN poll released on Wednesday found Mr. Biden leading the president by five percentage points nationwide, but trailing by seven points among voters in crucial battleground states."
Trump’s Ratings on the Virus Are Sagging. Why Isn’t Biden Surging?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/politics/biden-trump-polls.html

[Robert Roaldi]

Bad news for the Dems from Yahoo News. 

Coronavirus Cases in Georgia, Florida Continue to Decline Despite Business Openings

As an outsider looking in, the Dems whole national campaign is focused around not re-opening and staying locked down.  I know they have metrics, but the metrics are largely unattainable.  For example, CA insist they can not reopen until there is two continuous weeks of 0 C-19 deaths.  Well in the last 6 years there has never been a week with 0 flu deaths, a decease we all agree is less deadly albeit not by how much.  If a less deadly virus cant meet the metric, it is too strict and will easily be painted as a way to be against opening. 

This strategy only works if deaths spike in the states re-opening, which is not happening.  If I were a Dem and I wanted my candidate to win in November, I'd be writing my reps.

This would of course be good news, but it's probably a bit early to be counting chickens. Look how long it has taken Russia and Brazil to attain the top of the leader board in the disease stats?

Is your claim that keeping things closed really is a Democratic party policy or is this just your loaded interpretation? Are you like Alan K. now, where every bit of news is political. This obsession with the next election really is kind of a distraction from the real world, surely we're not in some perpetual horse race to put some loudmouth fat cat in a cushy job, are we? That can't be what the society is for.

[elliot_n]

For example, CA insist they can not reopen until there is two continuous weeks of 0 C-19 deaths.

That does sound extreme. Do you have a link?

[Alan Klein]

The deeper state: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/15/834874400/in-deep-challenges-president-trump-s-notion-of-a-deep-state-conspiracy. It is a podcast interview from NPR's Fresh Air with David Rohde who argues that Trump is creating his own "deep state" of apparatchnicks (my word) in various government departments whose prime qualification is loyalty to him personally rather than competence in their field. By leaving "acting" department heads in place, it also avoids Senate confirmation hearings.

Shouldn't loyalty to the country be more important than loyalty to Trump?

Aren't people worried about this behaviour?

First off policy has nothing to do with loyalty to the country.  We all can have differing viewpoints.  But that doesn't mean a person is disloyal.  In any case, who's to say someone's opinion is the right way to go? 

Every president wants people running government departments that reflect his views and policies.  This is as it should be.  After all, we're a democracy.  The president is an elected official who represents the people.  Bureaucrats, such as in the CDC,  are not elected.  They work for the president.  They push pencils.  Do you tell your boss how he should run his company or department?  If you don't like the way he does it or you feel there's an important thing he's missing, you advise him and try to convince him that another way may be better.  If you can't then you resign or carry out his decision professionally.  You don't undermine him.  Same with bureaucrats.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

...Shouldn't loyalty to the country be more important than loyalty to Trump?...

When did you stop beating your wife?

[PeterAit]

Bad news for the Dems from Yahoo News. 

Coronavirus Cases in Georgia, Florida Continue to Decline Despite Business Openings

As an outsider looking in, the Dems whole national campaign is focused around not re-opening and staying locked down.  I know they have metrics, but the metrics are largely unattainable.  For example, CA insist they can not reopen until there is two continuous weeks of 0 C-19 deaths.  Well in the last 6 years there has never been a week with 0 flu deaths, a decease we all agree is less deadly albeit not by how much.  If a less deadly virus cant meet the metric, it is too strict and will easily be painted as a way to be against opening. 

This strategy only works if deaths spike in the states re-opening, which is not happening.  If I were a Dem and I wanted my candidate to win in November, I'd be writing my reps.

The Dem strategy is not at all based on states staying shut down--that's utter nonsense. The more states are shut down, the fewer people will vote, and according to the Orange Oaf himself that would be bad for the Dems. More voters = better for Dems.The Dems' strategy is based mostly on one thing, and that's getting rid of the Cheeto. And the Dems' most effective campaign tool is Little Hands himself.

[JoeKitchen]

This would of course be good news, but it's probably a bit early to be counting chickens. Look how long it has taken Russia and Brazil to attain the top of the leader board in the disease stats?

Is your claim that keeping things closed really is a Democratic party policy or is this just your loaded interpretation? Are you like Alan K. now, where every bit of news is political. This obsession with the next election really is kind of a distraction from the real world, surely we're not in some perpetual horse race to put some loudmouth fat cat in a cushy job, are we? That can't be what the society is for.

Biden was on news the other day expressing his disappointment states are opening up.  He may have a more nuanced stance, but that is not getting out nor is he IMO capable of explaining nuance at this point in his life. 

Yes, though, it would be a great news if this continues.  It would also be great news if TX fairs well, along with CO and OH (both democratic states opening that no one is talking about) doing well too. 

FYI, my governor was forced to revise his opening schedule to begin earlier due to republican backlash in the state. 

[JoeKitchen]

The Dem strategy is not at all based on states staying shut down--that's utter nonsense. The more states are shut down, the fewer people will vote, and according to the Orange Oaf himself that would be bad for the Dems. More voters = better for Dems.The Dems' strategy is based mostly on one thing, and that's getting rid of the Cheeto. And the Dems' most effective campaign tool is Little Hands himself.

Peter, you are kidding yourself.  The Dems, on a national level, have been repeatably saying we should be staying closed down longer.  As I noted, this will backlash. 

Also, the strategy of trying to get people to vote against a person has always been, and still is, a losing one. 

[Alan Klein]

Peter, you are kidding yourself.  The Dems, on a national level, have been repeatably saying we should be staying closed down longer.  As I noted, this will backlash. 

Also, the strategy of trying to get people to vote against a person has always been, and still is, a losing one. 

I think the issue will be if the virus is under control and if the economy is mending, people will not want to change horses midstream.  No one, especially people who have been hurt economically but are seeing hope again at election time, will want to trust Biden economically.  As much as I think Trump is spending us to death, others don't see the long term problem with all the printing and debt.  Those chickens will come home to roost next year, but the election will be over by that time. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

https://wmbriggs.com/post/30833/?fbclid=IwAR0his0BD0lnf7fGktrPKTZOoeNy4qqO9wAW16z6Loy8HbazqcFciwVKexo

There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/unicef-warns-lockdown-could-kill-covid-19-model-predicts-12/?fbclid=IwAR2KtkG-cpUQembqxmSbjEvHHdfFuGulFYILJ-f_V-T8DtQPZzsLFn1nv7o

Unicef warns lockdown could kill more than Covid-19 as model predicts 1.2 million child deaths

The risk of children dying from malaria, pneumonia or diarrhoea in developing countries is spiralling due to the pandemic and “far outweighs any threat presented by the coronavirus”, Unicef has warned.

In an exclusive interview Dr Stefan Peterson, chief of health at Unicef, cautioned that the blanket lockdowns imposed in many low and middle income are not an effective way to control Covid-19 and could have deadly repercussions.

“Indiscriminate lockdown measures do not have an optimal effect on the virus,” he told The Telegraph. “If you’re asking families to stay at home in one room in a slum, without food or water, that won’t limit virus transmission.

“I’m concerned that lockdown measures have been copied between countries for lack of knowing what to do, rarely with any contextualisation for the local situation,” he said.

“One size fits no one. The objective is to slow the virus, not to lockdown people. “We need to lift our eyes and look at the total picture of public health.”

[John Camp]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/unicef-warns-lockdown-could-kill-covid-19-model-predicts-12/?fbclid=IwAR2KtkG-cpUQembqxmSbjEvHHdfFuGulFYILJ-f_V-T8DtQPZzsLFn1nv7o

Unicef warns lockdown could kill more than Covid-19 as model predicts 1.2 million child deaths

Everybody's got an ax to grind. UNICEF does children, so children are the most threatened. WHO does disease, so disease is the big problem. Trump needs to get elected, so it's the stock market. Though I'm in favor of the lockdown, with reopenings only as they seem viable and unlikely to result in a surge of deaths of people like Alan, I have to say that this is the glory moment for epidemiologists, and they are making the most of it. Everybody likes to be a hero on TV, including epidemiologists, nurses and doctors. Of course, they also hope they won't die. But, there is a sense of "Finally, we're seen to be as important as we've always known we are."

[kers]

https://wmbriggs.com/post/30833/?fbclid=IwAR0his0BD0lnf7fGktrPKTZOoeNy4qqO9wAW16z6Loy8HbazqcFciwVKexo

There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm

quote from the article:

Sweden did better than the UK, and there couldn’t have been a greater difference in strategies. In the US, South Dakota, which had no lockdown, did 7 times better than Chicago (or all Illinois), which did.

This quote says much about the 'corana infected brain' logics used in the article.
Comparing apples with pears to conclude that in Antartica there is no lockdown and there are less casualties.

BTW compare Sweden with the neighbours countries Norway, Finland and Denmark and conclude a lockdown is very effective.
But also that statement could be completely beside the point.

[William Walker]

Bad news for the Dems from Yahoo News. 

Coronavirus Cases in Georgia, Florida Continue to Decline Despite Business Openings

As an outsider looking in, the Dems whole national campaign is focused around not re-opening and staying locked down.  I know they have metrics, but the metrics are largely unattainable.  For example, CA insist they can not reopen until there is two continuous weeks of 0 C-19 deaths.  Well in the last 6 years there has never been a week with 0 flu deaths, a decease we all agree is less deadly albeit not by how much.  If a less deadly virus cant meet the metric, it is too strict and will easily be painted as a way to be against opening. 

This strategy only works if deaths spike in the states re-opening, which is not happening.  If I were a Dem and I wanted my candidate to win in November, I'd be writing my reps.

New York (tests per million) = 67 035.
Georgia (tests per million) = 26 926.
Florida (tests per million) = 28 382.

Trump is correct when he says tests are silly - the more you test the more bloody positive cases you get!