PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[JoeKitchen]

If all of that is true, why is the Republican controlled Senate having him testify today?

A nod to the Dems maybe?  After all, the House allowed a pro-Trump guy to testify as an expert witness during the impeachment. 

I also think this is another example of politicians abdicating their power so they cant be held responsible.  Bringing in medical experts that all tell them to continue the lock down gives them a way out of any backlash from their constituents who are for opening, at least in theory. 

I think many of those doing this will be in for a rude awakening though.  So far we have only seen true leadership from a hand full of politicians on this.  Rand Paul is one; the Governors of FL, TX, GA, CO, OH are amongst others. 

The only way cowering behind the medical experts will work at this point is if an extreme up tick in deaths happen.  Otherwise those who are for extending the lock down further will be viewed as not having any foresight.  I feel this is the end of the strange new progressive religion of "always listen to the experts." 

This is why I think Biden is destroying himself right now.  His team is saying we should not be opening, which only pays out politically if mass death ensues.  Otherwise, he is just looking as indecisive and cowardly as usual. 

[faberryman]

A nod to the Dems maybe?  After all, the House allowed a pro-Trump guy to testify as an expert witness during the impeachment. 

I also think this is another example of politicians abdicating their power so they cant be held responsible.  Bringing in medical experts that all tell them to continue the lock down gives them a way out of any backlash from their constituents who are for opening, at least in theory. 

I think many of those doing this will be in for a rude awakening though.  So far we have only seen true leadership from a hand full of politicians on this.  Rand Paul is one; the Governors of FL, TX, GA, CO, OH are amongst others. 

The only way cowering behind the medical experts will work at this point is if an extreme up tick in deaths happen.  Otherwise those who are for extending the lock down further will be viewed as not having any foresight.  I feel this is the end of the strange new progressive religion of "always listen to the experts." 

This is why I think Biden is destroying himself right now.  His team is saying we should not be opening, which only pays out politically if mass death ensues.  Otherwise, he is just looking as indecisive and cowardly as usual.

My mistake. The hearings are in the House. No lengthy explanation required.

[Alan Klein]

Assume there was no shutdown/lockdown. Do you think people would still travel as normal, take vacations, use planes and hotels as normal? At the risk of getting infected and die? Or getting infected, don't die, but infect others that could die?

Seems pretty obvious that shutting down for 2 months saved a lot of lives in many countries. Several of them are slowly reopening,in a careful way. Come June 1st, weather permitting, I can go to the beach, travel, and go to restaurants. Actually, restaurants are reopening 18th May, so are schools for some classes. Football returning 4th June, but alas, no public.

Besides, the trumpet already declared that by Q4 and/or 2021, it's going to be a "fantastic, terrific, tremendous" economic recovery. So why are you worried, if the great leader has spoken, has he not allayed your fears?

If you haven't figure out yet that I dance to my own drummer and don't listen to Trump, then you're never going to get me.  How many times have I told you Trump is a marketing guy?  Everything is great, terrific, etc.  That's how he sells.  It's hyperbole.  It's optimism.  Frankly that's what a leader is suppose to do. Be positive. Give people hope. If Obama did it, everyone would feel a tickle going up their leg and praise him.   

As far as the lockdown, sure, people aren't going out so quick because the government has terrified them.  They terrified me.  I've been locked up for 7 weeks.  I'll let others go out first.The truth is you'd have the cworld shut down for another 6 months.  But because your country is opening up in a few days on May 18th, and you see other places opening as well, you're backing off your strong position.  That's pretty obvious to me.  I think it's obvious to other here as well. But that's OK.  As I said there's no road map for this situation.  No one can say with any certainty which is the right path.

[Alan Klein]

I'm still not following how conducting a legitimate, bipartisan investigation is tantamount to trying to take down the incoming administration.   

The leaking is scummy, but we don't know that Biden had anything to do with that, and we DO know that when given the chance, "Obama's" FBI blatantly publicized the Clinton investigation reopening and pointedly did NOT mention the investigation into the Trump campaign.

I guess my questions is, what should have been done differently?  It's January 2017 and various agencies all know the first three things on the list I gave a few pages ago.  What would have been the non-scandalous way to handle it?

It wasn't legitimate.  It was illegal and criminal. It was a setup based on perjured information to the FISA court some of it based on a phoney dossier paid by Hillary Clinton and the opposition party.  The FBI and secret services of the US were using their tradecraft against the legitimate president of the United States to try to overthrow him.  It led to daily public accusations that Trump was committing treason.  This limited his ability to do his job as president.  The Obama administration including Vice President Biden were involved.  Why was he calling for unmasking a week before he's was to leave office?  He should have been cleaning out his desk instead.  Why was he interested?  We still don't know the full extent of their involvement.  But it was serious.   They were aware of the situation and let it continue during their term.  This is not the usual political games these people play.  They were using the powerful and secret police forces of the federal government to bring down a president.

[Alan Klein]

WINTER IS COMING —

Whistleblower warns of “darkest winter” if Trump admin ignores science
Blind rush to reopen will worsen COVID-19 spread, Bright tells Congress.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/05/whistleblower-warns-of-darkest-winter-if-trump-admin-ignores-science/

Other international experts have the same fear for the "Second Wave"in the Fall/Winter season, if it doesn't come earlier.

Then whole world is opening up not just the USA.  This guy, a scientist, has his opinion but others are just as concerned with the economic damage that is occuring.  No one is listening to this guy here or anywhere else. The world is opening up come hell or high water.  The only reason he's got this platform is because democrats run the House of Representatives and are using him to make points against Trump and the republicans.  He'll be forgotten by tomorrow and his 15 minutes of fame will be over. 

[JoeKitchen]

So did anyone else here see the CNN poll showing Biden is 7 points behind in every battle ground state? 

Just making sure it’s real. 

[faberryman]

So did anyone else here see the CNN poll showing Biden is 7 points behind in every battle ground state? 

Just making sure it’s real.

The CNN polls I saw described Biden trailing Trump by 7 points in battleground states, which I took to be an average. I have not seen state by state results for the battleground states.

[James Clark]

It wasn't legitimate.  It was illegal and criminal. It was a setup based on perjured information to the FISA court some of it based on a phoney dossier paid by Hillary Clinton and the opposition party.  The FBI and secret services of the US were using their tradecraft against the legitimate president of the United States to try to overthrow him.  It led to daily public accusations that Trump was committing treason.  This limited his ability to do his job as president.  The Obama administration including Vice President Biden were involved.  Why was he calling for unmasking a week before he's was to leave office?  He should have been cleaning out his desk instead.  Why was he interested?  We still don't know the full extent of their involvement.  But it was serious.   They were aware of the situation and let it continue during their term.  This is not the usual political games these people play.  They were using the powerful and secret police forces of the federal government to bring down a president.

OK.  So you're saying that, starting in mid 2016, the FBI should NOT have been investigating Russian interference in the upcoming election, that Mueller never should have investigated the impact on that election, and that Democrats made all that happen illegally?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

May 7th, Fauci says Masks are bullshit, in so many words.

That was a March 8th video.

Science has made ginormous strides since - from mask are useless to masks are useless, but required.

[JoeKitchen]

That was a March 8th video.

Science has made ginormous strides since - from mask are useless to masks are useless, but required.

Thanks for the correction. 

[JoeKitchen]

Good listen, former NYTs medical reporter on the models and on our current response.  The title suggest he is being punitive and scornful, but he is not.  He is just explaining why the models have been so wrong, and therefore why the policy has been so wrong. 

The Failure of Expert Predictions and Models | The Coronavirus and Public Policy

So I will admit that I have been a little too tough on Ferguson.  Essentially he was guessing in his initial estimate since data from China was not trustworthy.  Shortly after his initial crazy estimates came out, he revised his estimates down drastically to 20K deaths in Britain.  Not to mention he did say most would be the elderly or sick and would have died within a the year anyway. 

Unfortunately the press did not bother to give coverage to this change.

His critique of the U. of Washington model is more judgmental.  Essentially, U of W was updating its model but not making sure it the model accurately predicted the conditions on the ground of the day for each update. 

[Chris Kern]

The FBI and secret services of the US were using their tradecraft against the legitimate president of the United States to try to overthrow him. . . . This is not the usual political games these people play.  They were using the powerful and secret police forces of the federal government to bring down a president.

Unfortunately, you appear to be parroting, I presume without being aware of where these bizarre ideas originate, the kind of unsubstantiated conspiracy theories propagated via certain social media platforms by hostile foreign intelligence services and their proxies that are trying to undermine the confidence of the American public in the integrity of the U.S. government and democratic political system.

[Alan Klein]

OK.  So you're saying that, starting in mid 2016, the FBI should NOT have been investigating Russian interference in the upcoming election, that Mueller never should have investigated the impact on that election, and that Democrats made all that happen illegally?

They should have investigated.  But it became political when they weaponized it by trying to link Trump and his campaign to it.

[Alan Klein]

Unfortunately, you appear to be parroting, I presume without being aware of where these bizarre ideas originate, the kind of unsubstantiated conspiracy theories propagated via certain social media platforms by hostile foreign intelligence services and their proxies that are trying to undermine the confidence of the American public in the integrity of the U.S. government and democratic political system.

It seems you fell to social platform nonsense and conspiracy theories, not I. So the Russians sucked the Democrats right into it because of their hatred for Trump that he won.  They couldn't believe he did that on his own so sure they were of Hillary winning. So you were convinced Trump was a traitor.  Interestingly, you don't seem disturbed about that conspiracy theory. 

[Alan Klein]

Implementing social distancing in public.

[armand]

A more updated opinion from Fauci on the use of facemasks, which is not taken out of context: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_FWRVURT2s
I lost interest to have a discussion here, I'm posting this only for the sake of accuracy.

[Robert Roaldi]

For those really interested in the Obama/Trump transition period, I suggest the book "The Fifth Risk" by Michael Lewis.

He also wrote "Money Ball"(Oakland Athletics revolutionized baseball), "Flash Boys"(high frequency trading and fibre optics) and "The Big Short" (we all know what THAT was about).

His podcast series "Against the Rules" was also very good. https://atrpodcast.com, but also available via the usual podcatchers.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... I lost interest to have a discussion here...

Oh, no!

Just when the pan(dem)ic is winding down and you have even more time to devote to us here

[LesPalenik]

Oh, no!

Just when the pan(dem)ic is winding down and you have even more time to devote to us here

Any winding down indication is only an optical illusion.
Although the infection and death counts in several countries have been recently trending down, this reflects the fact that initially most of the cases were recorded in the long care homes and since many of their residents died, the new cases there are now not as numerous as previously.

About 20% of virus deaths in USA happened in the nursing homes. In Canada and in Europe, the nursing homes are linked to half of the deaths. Looking at it through half-full glass, if a half of your constituents dies, it can't get any worse. The fatalities will gradually decrease and you'll end up with a small group of immune and hardened residents. On the other hand, younger and more impatient groups are getting out and getting ready to party, so their infections will be rising.
 

A “deeply concerning picture” is emerging about residents of homes for the elderly, Hans Kluge, the WHO’s top official for Europe, told reporters at a news conference Thursday. According to countries’ estimates, he said, “up to half of those who have died from covid-19 were resident in long-term-care facilities. This is an unimaginable human tragedy.”

Kluge’s warning was focused on Europe, but the United States also has struggled with the pandemic inside homes for the elderly. A Washington Post analysis this week found that nearly 1 in 10 nursing homes in the United States have reported cases of the novel coronavirus, with a death count that has reached the thousands.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/nursing-homes-coronavirus-deaths-europe/2020/04/23/d635619c-8561-11ea-81a3-9690c9881111_story.html

[William Walker]

Good listen, former NYTs medical reporter on the models and on our current response.  The title suggest he is being punitive and scornful, but he is not.  He is just explaining why the models have been so wrong, and therefore why the policy has been so wrong. 

The Failure of Expert Predictions and Models | The Coronavirus and Public Policy

So I will admit that I have been a little too tough on Ferguson.  Essentially he was guessing in his initial estimate since data from China was not trustworthy.  Shortly after his initial crazy estimates came out, he revised his estimates down drastically to 20K deaths in Britain.  Not to mention he did say most would be the elderly or sick and would have died within a the year anyway. 

Unfortunately the press did not bother to give coverage to this change.

His critique of the U. of Washington model is more judgmental.  Essentially, U of W was updating its model but not making sure it the model accurately predicted the conditions on the ground of the day for each update.

There's your problem right there Joe...! You are looking in the wrong places! 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/06/neil-ferguson-scientists-media-government-adviser-social-distancinghttps:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/09/uk-scientists-letter-scientific-basis-for-lockdown-neil-ferguson