PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[faberryman]

Our death per millions is middle of the pack with 240/million.

So much for American exceptionalism. And you guys sound absolutely giddy about it.

[William Walker]

Just like with FL? 

So you post a Trump hit piece with inaccurate data which can be verified pretty easily, and your defense is just to wait a week for those statements to become true.

Joe, if you read the article his use of the term "death rate" seems to mean "the rate at which people are dying per day" - as opposed to what you, and to be fair, what I also assumed.

[Craig Lamson]

Give it a week or so.

We will have to see, wont we? 

[JoeKitchen]

Interesting podcast with historian Victor Davis Hanson on the short fallings of elites in this pandemic. 

The Classicist: The Cult Of The Elites

In summary, he goes over how we really can not trust our elites or experts anymore if you look at their past failures even in just this short pandemic.  Failures such as:

-Being told by WHO initially that the virus was not transmissible.
-Then WHO told us the travel ban had no effect and was racist. 
-Mask were of no value, but then they were or some value, and now enormous. 
-The value of hydroxychloroquine has been constantly changing. 
-All of the models in the beginning were drastically off, especially Ferguson's. 
-Some (non-experts) made predictions that maybe the first infection happened long before February, and they were admonished by the experts.  Now, the experts are thinking this is true. 
-etc.

On top of that, the hyper specialization many have pursued have caused them to lose common sense and a connection to reality, and to look with disdain at those who are not as "elite."  This to has negative effects, such as Cuomo not cleaning the subways until just recently, which anyone in sanitations could have figured out was a good thing.  Additionally, not allowing those who test positive back into nursing homes, which was not the case until yesterday (in NY at least).  Another, it is nearly impossible to catch this in open air, but we are being forced to stay inside makes no sense. 

Many innovations come from non-experts outside of the field, and our idea that we should always take experts word as scared is false.  He gives a few example of this, but my personal favorite in history are the Wright Brothers.  Every "expert" engineer at the time in the world was trying to discover controlled flight.  But two brothers without any eduction past high school who happened to take an interest in gliders as a hobby beat the world to it. 

[JoeKitchen]

Joe, if you read the article his use of the term "death rate" seems to mean "the rate at which people are dying per day" - as opposed to what you, and to be fair, what I also assumed.

Thanks William, and to be fair, something he should make more explicit if so. 

[William Walker]

Everyone is assuming that the flow of infected people was the same throughout the world.  That's statistically impossible.  For whatever reason, infected people traveled coincidentally to different places giving those places get higher infection rates.  Depending on who were infected also could have created imbalances.  If a bunch of people from Wuhan who were infected traveled to NY and let's say Italy rather than Melbourne, infections in Melbourne would be less.   There's no way an equal amount of infected traveled in exactly the same percentage so that the infections were spread around equally.  Frankly, a lot of this has been the luck of the draw.

Alan, that seems to me to be absolutely correct. The first South Africans all picked it up in France or Italy skiing, and also some European tourists. The three main infected areas all happen to be where international flights land.

As for your other "bugbear" regarding China: I think everyone agrees that it started in China, and I also think it is reasonable to say so!

I just don't agree that now is the time to be having a "go" at them - we should all be concentrating on the task at hand - which is surviving. There will be plenty of time to get to the bottom of this later. Of course, how we get to the bottom of it is where you and I may differ. I don't believe that being confrontational (or political) is going to get us very far - you'll catch more ants with sugar than with vinegar...

I also don't buy the theory that this was started as some clever Chinese plan to take over the world: if everyone knows that this entire catastrophe started with them - how does that make us want to "fall in love with them" - it simply does not make sense to me. I think this sets them back.

[faberryman]

In summary, he goes over how we really can not trust our elites or experts anymore if you look at their past failures even in just this short pandemic.

It is the same way with photography. Any kid off the street with an iPhone is likely to do just as good a job as a professional. Have you seen some of the junk professionals are passing off as expert and charging big bucks for? What a con.

[JoeKitchen]

It is the same way with photography. Any kid off the street with an iPhone is likely to do just as good a job as a professional. Have you seen some of the junk professionals are passing off as expert and charging big bucks for? What a con.

I know right?  Thank God for me a sucker is born every minute. 

By the way, did you even listen to it, or read what I wrote?  You cant deny how wrong every expert has been repeatably. 

The fact that it took two months for the experts to realize cleaning the subway and not allowing those who test positive back into nursing homes shows how common sense has escaped them. 

[Craig Lamson]

So much for American exceptionalism. And you guys sound absolutely giddy about it.

Its not pretty, and it sure does not make me happy but when you really drill down, as bad as it is, you see somethings are not as bad as the big picture paints.  And some of these things also apply in other parts of the world as well.

Aside from the elderly and those in care faclilties, the general population has done pretty well.  Many states in the US have 30-60% of their deaths in care facilities.  And while those in poor health and risk groups had issues, many survived the infection.

Just a few states account for the vast majority of the deaths in the US.  Most states have done a decent job.  And now they are getting back to work, which is a good thing because the economy is toast...worldwide.

Our hospital system was underwhelmed.  Again this varies by  state but even states like New York which has at least 1/4 of the deaths didn't use the temporary hospitials we spent many millions of dollars to construct.

I've said this before and it still stands...its not the government that controls the spread of this, its people.  If people do what they should it slowed the growth of the spread, if they don't it increases.  Unlike many places where people can be blindly lead, for good or bad, thats not the case in the US.  Many people will demand their constitutional rights be upheld even during a pandemic.  Short of declaring martial law thats the reality of the US.  On the bright side, many people did heed the call to social distance and it made a difference.

Time will tell if people will continue to try and distance and wear masks etc.  Based on my limited adventures out and about its hit or miss right now.  Many stores have taken great precautions, some not so much.  PEOPLE are another story.  No masks generally outweigh masks on shoppers.  By feeling is that is not going to change unless we have an outbreak.  But its time to open up, and take whatever comes.  We can't stay shut down.  We can try and be safe, we can limit our chances of becoming infected but its time to start living again, at least for the majority of Americans at the least risk.

[James Clark]

Interesting podcast with historian Victor Davis Hanson on the short fallings of elites in this pandemic. 

The Classicist: The Cult Of The Elites

In summary, he goes over how we really can not trust our elites or experts anymore if you look at their past failures even in just this short pandemic.  Failures such as:

-Being told by WHO initially that the virus was not transmissible.
-Then WHO told us the travel ban had no effect and was racist. 
-Mask were of no value, but then they were or some value, and now enormous. 
-The value of hydroxychloroquine has been constantly changing. 
-All of the models in the beginning were drastically off, especially Ferguson's. 
-Some (non-experts) made predictions that maybe the first infection happened long before February, and they were admonished by the experts.  Now, the experts are thinking this is true. 
-etc.

On top of that, the hyper specialization many have pursued have caused them to lose common sense and a connection to reality, and to look with disdain at those who are not as "elite."  This to has negative effects, such as Cuomo not cleaning the subways until just recently, which anyone in sanitations could have figured out was a good thing.  Additionally, not allowing those who test positive back into nursing homes, which was not the case until yesterday (in NY at least).  Another, it is nearly impossible to catch this in open air, but we are being forced to stay inside makes no sense. 

Many innovations come from non-experts outside of the field, and our idea that we should always take experts word as scared is false.  He gives a few example of this, but my personal favorite in history are the Wright Brothers.  Every "expert" engineer at the time in the world was trying to discover controlled flight.  But two brothers without any eduction past high school who happened to take an interest in gliders as a hobby beat the world to it.

You're embarrassing yourself with your buzzwords, your anti-intellectualism, and your populist bullshit.

George Cayley, (not a peasant farmer by the way) figured out the principles of lift 200 years before the Wright Bros. flew their plane.  As for the Wrights, the idea that they were some sort of bumpkin everyman that "beat the experts" is absurd.  They*were* the experts.  They were skilled machinists, they built wind tunnels and relied on extensive testing, and worked with their mechanic to make the engines small and light enough to be lifted by the plane they built.

Also, unless you want to discuss military history (and how white people are superior to asians and middle easterners), stop referencing Victor Davis Hanson for God's sake.   It's like me telling you that Arthur Schlesinger Jr. has an unbiased view on the Kennedy administration.

[Alan Klein]

Alan, that seems to me to be absolutely correct. The first South Africans all picked it up in France or Italy skiing, and also some European tourists. The three main infected areas all happen to be where international flights land.

As for your other "bugbear" regarding China: I think everyone agrees that it started in China, and I also think it is reasonable to say so!

I just don't agree that now is the time to be having a "go" at them - we should all be concentrating on the task at hand - which is surviving. There will be plenty of time to get to the bottom of this later. Of course, how we get to the bottom of it is where you and I may differ. I don't believe that being confrontational (or political) is going to get us very far - you'll catch more ants with sugar than with vinegar...

I also don't buy the theory that this was started as some clever Chinese plan to take over the world: if everyone knows that this entire catastrophe started with them - how does that make us want to "fall in love with them" - it simply does not make sense to me. I think this sets them back.

I agree with most of what you said Bill.  Trump has taken a mid-position.  He's said that it probably was an accident and the fact they didn’t give us a heads up was probably embarrassment but could have been deliberate.  He's investigating and will know more about it later and will deal with it at that time.  On the other hand, Trump does seem to take China to task publicly.  Some of that is because he's being blame for the spread in the US, I believe unfairly.  But this is election season, and his opponents are using the virus politically.  So he's pointing a finger at China more and probably would do it less if it wasn’t for the politics.

As far as the plan to take over the world, well it could have been accidental.  But then when they got it they may have figured that the rest of the world should be in the same mess as them.  Or maybe, it was just they didn’t want to acknowledge because of embarrassment.  Who knows?  But their being quiet did complicate it and make it worse for the rest of the world.  I also think WHO is in their pocket.  Maybe someone is on their pad to be nice to them.  I really don’t trust any of the UN agencies.

[JoeKitchen]

You're embarrassing yourself with your buzzwords, your anti-intellectualism, and your populist bullshit.

George Cayley, (not a peasant farmer by the way) figured out the principles of lift 200 years before the Wright Bros. flew their plane.  As for the Wrights, the idea that they were some sort of bumpkin everyman that "beat the experts" is absurd.  They*were* the experts.  They were skilled machinists, they built wind tunnels and relied on extensive testing, and worked with their mechanic to make the engines small and light enough to be lifted by the plane they built.

Also, unless you want to discuss military history (and how white people are superior to asians and middle easterners), stop referencing Victor Davis Hanson for God's sake.   It's like me telling you that Arthur Schlesinger Jr. has an unbiased view on the Kennedy administration.

James, the Wright Brothers, by historical standards, are considered the experts.  By today's modern standards, they would not have been.  They would have been ignored until they actually got up in the air, as was the case during their time.  When they debuted their plane in Paris, no one really took them seriously until after it made the first turn with out crashing.  Additionally, I was aware that the idea of flight was discovered prior to the Wright Brothers, which is why I wrote "controlled flight." 

And I am not being anti-intellectual, just noting the hypocrisy of many intellectuals on the left who have an air of arrogance about them whereas they ignore those in less "elite" jobs as a source of knowledge.  This happens all of the time, and just recently with the whole NY forcing nursing homes to take back those who tested positive.  This was fought from the beginning by the nursing homes, but the governor doubled down and threatened to take away their funding. 

But, people like yourself, keep on insisting that the experts always need to be listened to, regardless, and you insist that we just ignore their past failures as if they do not matter, especially if the failure was drastic over estimate.  With any one else, past failures would play an important roll in assessing whether or not we should take them seriously, but with the "experts" not so for some reason. 

Last, I don't recall Hanson ever saying white people are superior.  That is just another example of your bull shit leftism distorting the facts, as it always does.  He has talked about Western Culture as being superior in many regards and the pit falls of multiculturalism, something even Bill Maher talks about regularly. 

[LesPalenik]

Many "experts" are really not experts.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) currently discourages mask use.
"There is currently no evidence that wearing a mask (whether medical or other types) by healthy persons in the wider community setting, including universal community masking, can prevent them from infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19."

https://www.sciencealert.com/this-is-why-advice-on-whether-you-should-wear-a-mask-is-just-so-confusing

[James Clark]

Many "experts" are really not experts.

https://www.sciencealert.com/this-is-why-advice-on-whether-you-should-wear-a-mask-is-just-so-confusing

Yes, and true "experts" can logically and rationally come to different conclusions, particularly in a very new or quickly changing scenario.  That's different from the idea that someone with no training or background in an area has as much of a claim to certainty as does someone with a foundational understanding of a problem.

[LesPalenik]

Yes, and true "experts" can logically and rationally come to different conclusions, particularly in a very new or quickly changing scenario.  That's different from the idea that someone with no training or background in an area has as much of a claim to certainty as does someone with a foundational understanding of a problem.

That's how it should be. Unfortunately, many "experts" rely on their outdated knowledge or even worse on the currently established practices in their field, and not on the latest research.

[Alan Klein]

Yes, and true "experts" can logically and rationally come to different conclusions, particularly in a very new or quickly changing scenario.  That's different from the idea that someone with no training or background in an area has as much of a claim to certainty as does someone with a foundational understanding of a problem.

But it begs the question.  Which expert do you believe?

[JoeKitchen]

Yes, and true "experts" can logically and rationally come to different conclusions, particularly in a very new or quickly changing scenario.  That's different from the idea that someone with no training or background in an area has as much of a claim to certainty as does someone with a foundational understanding of a problem.

Although I may certainly agree with this statement, having contradictory expert opinions and then admonishing people for not following "your expert" kind of destroys this point.  And often the expert whom you like to consider as being yours is associated not with his/her past credibility, but where they fall on the political scale and whether or not they say the right thing.  This kind of lunacy has even cost lefties their jobs, for example Yale Lecturer Resigns After Email on Halloween Costumes. 

Not to mention the litany of "groundbreaking" expert opinions in non-scientific fields contradicting past research in more scientific fields, along with common sense, pushed by the left goes to the foundation of providing more distrust in experts.  A great example is out of gender studies stating that gender differences are nothing but societal constructs.  This contradicts all psychological studies on the issue, not to mention common sense, yet we are force feed this, and if we publicly disagree are banished.  Of course there are many others too, especially when it comes to public policy. 

It is this over the past few years which is creating a distrust in experts, and it is solely the lefts doing.  How can you expect the public to retain their trust in you after this?  The largest percentage of deaths in the USA happened in nursing homes, and yet the health experts in NY government forced nursing home to take back those who tested positive.  This, in itself, destroys a large chunk of their trust. 

[James Clark]

James, the Wright Brothers, by historical standards, are considered the experts.  By today's modern standards, they would not have been.  They would have been ignored until they actually got up in the air, as was the case during their time.  When they debuted their plane in Paris, no one really took them seriously until after it made the first turn with out crashing.  Additionally, I was aware that the idea of flight was discovered prior to the Wright Brothers, which is why I wrote "controlled flight." 

By "modern standards" no one would have been, really.  It was an emerging field, and yes, other people had other ideas that were wrong, and the Wrights were, er, right   The point, though, is that the Wrights accomplishment wasn't the result of the "common man" succeeding where "experts" could not.   The Wrights has as much, or more, grounding in a combined understanding of fabrication/engineering and flight concepts as anyone else did.

And I am not being anti-intellectual, just noting the hypocrisy of many intellectuals on the left who have an air of arrogance about them whereas they ignore those in less "elite" jobs as a source of knowledge.  This happens all of the time, and just recently with the whole NY forcing nursing homes to take back those who tested positive.  This was fought from the beginning by the nursing homes, but the governor doubled down and threatened to take away their funding. 

But, people like yourself, keep on insisting that the experts always need to be listened to, regardless, and you insist that we just ignore their past failures as if they do not matter, especially if the failure was drastic over estimate.  With any one else, past failures would play an important roll in assessing whether or not we should take them seriously, but with the "experts" not so for some reason. 

Not regardless.  Merely moreso than people hat have no basis for the assumptions they are making.  I'll repeat - experts can and are wrong.  But far more often than not, an epidemiologist is going to understand the course of a pandemic better than you will, or I will, or Richard Epstein will.

Last, I don't recall Hanson ever saying white people are superior.  That is just another example of your bull shit leftism distorting the facts, as it always does.  He has talked about Western Culture as being superior in many regards and the pit falls of multiculturalism, something even Bill Maher talks about regularly.

A sfar as I can tell, hanson isn't a straight-up white nationalist like Stephen Miller, but for an historian trained to notice macro trends, he sure does rely on anecdotal evidence about hispanics adn blacks to draw some pretty nutty conclusions (like, "be afraid of groups of young black people" and "hispanics are probably here tro have anchor babies")

[James Clark]

That's how it should be. Unfortunately, many "experts" rely on their outdated knowledge or even worse on the currently established practices in their field, and not on the latest research.

Which probably still gives them a leg up on they guy who watched "plandemic" on Youtube

[William Walker]

Interesting podcast with historian Victor Davis Hanson on the short fallings of elites in this pandemic. 

The Classicist: The Cult Of The Elites

In summary, he goes over how we really can not trust our elites or experts anymore if you look at their past failures even in just this short pandemic.  Failures such as:

-Being told by WHO initially that the virus was not transmissible.
-Then WHO told us the travel ban had no effect and was racist. 
-Mask were of no value, but then they were or some value, and now enormous. 
-The value of hydroxychloroquine has been constantly changing. 
-All of the models in the beginning were drastically off, especially Ferguson's. 
-Some (non-experts) made predictions that maybe the first infection happened long before February, and they were admonished by the experts.  Now, the experts are thinking this is true. 
-etc.

On top of that, the hyper specialization many have pursued have caused them to lose common sense and a connection to reality, and to look with disdain at those who are not as "elite."  This to has negative effects, such as Cuomo not cleaning the subways until just recently, which anyone in sanitations could have figured out was a good thing.  Additionally, not allowing those who test positive back into nursing homes, which was not the case until yesterday (in NY at least).  Another, it is nearly impossible to catch this in open air, but we are being forced to stay inside makes no sense. 

Many innovations come from non-experts outside of the field, and our idea that we should always take experts word as scared is false.  He gives a few example of this, but my personal favorite in history are the Wright Brothers.  Every "expert" engineer at the time in the world was trying to discover controlled flight.  But two brothers without any eduction past high school who happened to take an interest in gliders as a hobby beat the world to it.

Joe, two of your points are something I know about without having to Google:
1. Masks. It is true that we were told not to wear masks in the beginning unless you were positive. That was before they discovered that positive, asymptomatic people existed. They then said, in case you are
    asymptomatic, wear a mask. That makes sense to me.

2. It is true that the WHO said that there was no evidence (I think early January) of human-to-human transfer, then a few days later evidence did become available. That's why they call it a "novel"
    virus. We are still learning new things about it each day. What is so difficult about understanding that?

There is no doubt what experts are saying about the disease today might change tomorrow. It sounds like it will be a few years before this thing is fully understood - start learning to live with that.

I have just been watching a Webinar by one our local scientists and he said to the host, "please don't call me a Covid-19 expert, I am not, and neither is anyone else in the world!"

If you appreciate the above, then you have to ask yourself, "why can't Victor Davis Hanson (a supposedly clever man) not understand this?"

The only conclusion you can reach is that he has some kind of agenda...