There's a lot of discussion of rushing the vaccine before full testing is done. That means there's a good chance that people will die from it or maybe get the virus in it's full form. Who wants to be a guinea pig?
Alan, I don't think there's much talk of using the vaccine before full testing -- but there' a lot of talk about telescoping the whole process. I've been closely following the Oxford vaccine, which is the most advanced, and may be available in the UK sometime in early autumn. They have a vaccine candidate that is similar to vaccines which they developed and tested for SARS and MERS, which are also corona viruses. They were able to test their vaccine against the virus in monkey models (in Montana) this spring, and none of the monkey models (often used as precursors to human tests) were completely successful. The monkeys didn't get the virus, and didn't get sick from the vaccine. So, they started the next stage double-blind tests a week ago, and those are underway. They expect to get a "signal" on the results of those tests, both on efficacy and safety, by early June. They will then go to wide third-stage tests over the summer, with results as soon as September. However, the UK government has said that if the second-stage tests are promising, with no safety or efficacy problems, they will begin ramping up production even before the third-stages tests are done, so that as soon as the results are known, if they are good, the vaccine can be released. Under normal circumstances, there are all kinds of bureaucratic things spliced in there that take time. Things are done by slow step by step, with long waits in between steps with nothing productive happening. (Like fund raising, and factory building.) For example, the final bureaucratic review can take up to a year, but most of that is because the bureaucrats are doing several things at the same time, and not focusing on a single drug candidate. In this case, the paperwork could be done in a week.
I've volunteered to rent one of those Delta rent-a-jets to fly my friends to London to get the vaccine, if that's what happens. We'll be refueling in Newark, and we'd be happy to take your wife with us if there are not yet vaccines available in the US.
