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Author Topic: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political  (Read 496665 times)

John Camp

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4020 on: May 08, 2020, 01:03:20 pm »

As I understand it, they are frequently updating their model with current data, so I would expect their projections to change from time to time. The jump from 74,000 to 134,000 may reflect the ending of the various state shut downs. I have no idea how good the model itself is, other than I believe it is the one CDC used for the daily press briefings.

I have followed their models and I think that on one level, they're pretty good -- that level being a model based on current conditions and assuming those conditions persist. Where the model seriously fails is that it does not model the behavior of the people who are in charge of deciding how open or closed the economy will be. I don't even know if that's possible, but it's obviously a huge hole. If Trump says the virus is going away as if by magic, and people believe him and begin opening businesses and socializing again, that's obviously going to have a huge impact. Governors who open or close based on ideology rather than medical considerations (and I believe we've seen both) are obviously going to have an effect on infection rates, and these models obviously don't take this critical factor into account. I think all models have to be taken with a large grain (or pinch) or salt, because of these failings. For example, Joe obviously has a model in his head, and that model says that 99%+ will survive infection, and that 80% of us will get it. If his model is correct (and assuming that 99%+ survival rate means that only 1/2 of one percent die) we would have 1,320,000 covid-19 deaths in the US. Is that acceptable? Well over a million dead?
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4021 on: May 08, 2020, 01:04:40 pm »

'Coronavirus survivors banned from joining the military'

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/06/coronavirus-survivors-banned-from-joining-the-military/

What do they know that we don't?

That strange (interim) guideline has been updated:
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/07/updated-guidance-allows-unhospitalized-covid-19-survivors-to-join-the-military/
Quote
Military Entrance Processing Command will now accept recruits who have previously tested positive for coronavirus as long as they haven’t been hospitalized, the official confirmed, a clarifying update of what is still interim guidance.
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elliot_n

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4022 on: May 08, 2020, 01:14:10 pm »

All predictions went until June.  They extended it too, which would increase the number.  Still, being off by 2 is better then 10+.

No, their predictions were always to August 4th. Before they changed from 74,000 to 134,000 a couple of days ago, the actual deaths had exceeded their projection for August. 
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4023 on: May 08, 2020, 01:37:42 pm »

First, I did not use an infection fatality rate of 0.9%.  We actually dont know the infection fatality rate yet, but it is much less then our current case fatality rate.  I posted a graph showing that, depending on age, the case fatality rate was 0% to 20%.  Meaning that if you are below 50, you will survive with extremely few exceptions (much like driving in a car, you will survive).  So, protect the old and let everyone else out to continuing working and keeping the economy going is what I am advocating for. 

Second, assuming 80% of the population will get this is not scientific and not supported by past events.  Only 28% caught the Spanish Flu before it died out.  The infection rate is even lower for other past events.  To assume 80% will catch this is a gross mistake. 

I have yet to see any data showing his original model is accurate in the UK.  FYI, even in the UK, most concentrated on his do nothing model, which at the time most countries were no longer in a do nothing mode.  However, as I said before, the best case against his models is Sweden.  Using his model for Sweden has shown how off it is. 

Last, yes, we have our own modelers.  However, the "if it bleeds it leads" mantra of the press over here hyped up the worse case scenario (which his was) more then likely just for more clicks and ratings. 

I think Newt Gingrich put it best when he wrote this lock down is the result of our modern hysteria brought on by social media and online activity.  In a less connected world, I feel our response would have been like in past events with, perhaps, only slightly more loss of life albeit with much less economic damage.  There is a price for having access to too much information as well.
It's what we get often with hurricanes, and snow storms, and such.  They are always overhyped.  People get nervous and hide.  Governmental officials act overly cautious to cover their behinds.  Also, years ago, government didn't have such an impact on our lives.  People were more independent, more reliant on themselves.   We've grown to accept the government as the all knowing seers when they're just a bunch of egotistical fools trying to get re-elected. 

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4024 on: May 08, 2020, 01:53:33 pm »

The infection came from younger people who were spreading the virus. You know, those with a 99% survival chance ...
My 97 year old mother-law lives in an assisted living community. So I'm pretty familiar with the procedures there.  There's probably a few hundred residents.  They live in 1 and 2 person rooms.  The problems is it's a close community.  They all dine together.  They all hang out together in the recreation room, Bingo room, TV room etc.  The people who attend to them are very close.  Depending on the resident, the staff helps them bathe, gets them dressed, gives them their medications, as well as a few nurses providing minor support services.  The nurses and staff go from room to room, resident to resident.  Visitors, including doctor calls, family visitors, oxygen delivery companies, etc. come and go adding to the mix. These visitors also see more than one resident at a time.  The place is like a Petri dish.  No other place is so dangerous for infectious diseases except possibly hospitals.  Of course, hospitals have the experience and knowledge and equipment to deal with isolation.  The staff working at old age homes are mainly aides who are inexperience with these things.  Plus they don't have the PPE.  So a lot of people died before they figured it out.

Today, my wife and I are not allowed to see her mom.  The residents are not allowed out.  All the staff have PPE and have had their training upgraded.  How good is it?  Who knows?  My wife is close to her mom's support staff so she checks in constantly, even on skype video calls.  She's satisfied that the staff is supplied with good PPE and work safely. They said they didn't need anything from us when we offered.  We pray she'll be all right.  It's a sad situation.



JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4025 on: May 08, 2020, 01:57:47 pm »

No, their predictions were always to August 4th. Before they changed from 74,000 to 134,000 a couple of days ago, the actual deaths had exceeded their projection for August.

Did it realize that; all models I’ve seen go to June. 

Any answer to being off by a factor of 2 being better then 10+?
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4026 on: May 08, 2020, 01:58:35 pm »

So, how is that "the virus originated from a Chinese lab" hoax coming along?

Has anything been proven yet, or are folks in government still looking for a scapegoat, to divert attention away from their own alleged incompetence?
It's not where it came from.  It that the Chinese hid the facts about the disease from the rest of the world for 6 weeks which would have allowed us to prepare better and earlier. 

Robert Roaldi

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4027 on: May 08, 2020, 02:00:56 pm »

Governmental officials act overly cautious to cover their behinds.

Or maybe to save lives? Do you not want them to warn you of possible incoming hurricanes, is that too much of a bother?
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4028 on: May 08, 2020, 02:02:00 pm »

It's not where it came from.  It that the Chinese hid the facts about the disease from the rest of the world for 6 weeks which would have allowed us to prepare better and earlier.

Please re-read the previous 1000 pages.
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4029 on: May 08, 2020, 02:04:28 pm »

'Coronavirus survivors banned from joining the military'

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/06/coronavirus-survivors-banned-from-joining-the-military/

What do they know that we don't?
The military want healthy young people to go out and die for us.  They can't afford to get tied down with casualties related to existing illnesses.  It appears that coronavirus leaves lasting scars, or at least it's unknown just how bad they are.  If a recruit had these infirmities, they could drag down the effectiveness of their unit as they have to be cared for.  It's why people who have flat feet are exempt.  They can't march and walk long distances.  Bone spurs?  :)

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4030 on: May 08, 2020, 02:15:05 pm »

Please re-read the previous 1000 pages.
So you don't refute my point.  The fact is Chinese lied.  They arrested their own whistleblowers. They downplayed the severity of it. They refused scientists to visit and get info from them.  So the whole world suffered more than would have happened.  China is a bad actor.  Even recently, the FDA pulled licenses of around 85% of KN95 and N95 mask companies from China as not meeting the standards they should. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Svrj6Bw5K9A
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-fda-cuts-the-number-of-china-mask-makers-approved-for-n95-masks-wsj-2020-05-07

elliot_n

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4031 on: May 08, 2020, 02:16:43 pm »

Any answer to being off by a factor of 2 being better then 10+?

I don't think Ferguson over-estimated anything re. Covid.

He did not make any projection re. Sweden.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4032 on: May 08, 2020, 02:33:33 pm »

I don't think Ferguson over-estimated anything re. Covid.

He did not make any projection re. Sweden.

He over predicted by a substantial amount with every single prediction in his career.  And although he may not have, you can use his same model for Sweden and get exactly what he would have.  He screwed the pooch, big time, not just here, but with every prediction in his life.

He would not have earned the nickname Master of Disaster if not. 

He no longer deserves to be take seriously, nor any prediction out of Imperial College until they redeem themselves.
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elliot_n

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4033 on: May 08, 2020, 02:36:26 pm »

He over predicted by a substantial amount with every single prediction in his career.  And although he may not have, you can use his same model for Sweden and get exactly what he would have.  He screwed the pooch, big time, not just here, but with every prediction in his life.

He would not have earned the nickname Master of Disaster if not. 

He no longer deserves to be take seriously, nor any prediction out of Imperial College until they redeem themselves.

I don't think you could be more wrong. He persuaded our idiot prime minister to take Covid seriously. For that alone he is a hero.
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faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4034 on: May 08, 2020, 02:38:09 pm »

And although he may not have, you can use his same model for Sweden and get exactly what he would have.
Can you download his model from somewhere on the internet and plug in your own data to arrive at numbers for other countries as well?
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4035 on: May 08, 2020, 02:41:17 pm »

Can you download his model from somewhere on the internet and plug in your own data to arrive at numbers for other countries as well?

It is available for review, and many have been reviewing it.  Actually it is so bug ridden that Microsoft tried to fix it, but could not. 
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4036 on: May 08, 2020, 02:42:09 pm »

14.7% unemployment today in the USA, a level not seen since the Great Depression. 

We are on the verge of permanent economic damage!  We need to move past these lock downs now. 
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William Walker

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4037 on: May 08, 2020, 02:42:40 pm »

I don't think Ferguson over-estimated anything re. Covid.

He did not make any projection re. Sweden.

What I don't understand is why - if Joe (and his links) are to be believed - Neil Ferguson received these awards and honours:
"Ferguson was appointed Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2002 New Year Honours for his work modelling the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak. He was elected a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (FMedSci) in 2005.[58] He is also an International Member of the US National Academy of Medicine." - Wikipedia

Prof Neil Ferguson is one of the world's most influential disease modellers.
He is director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis.
The centre's mathematical predictions advise governments and the World Health Organization on outbreaks from Ebola in West Africa to the current pandemic.
It was that group's work, in early January, that alerted the world to the threat of coronavirus." - BBC News.  https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-52553229

"But today’s lurid front-page headlines follow a campaign to discredit him by those ideologically opposed to government interventions, and who have used such tactics against scientists in other fields, particularly climate change." - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/06/neil-ferguson-scientists-media-government-adviser-social-distancing

Say no more. Joe, you stick to your sources, I'll stick to mine.
Remember, there are always two side to a story.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2020, 02:51:38 pm by William Walker »
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faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4038 on: May 08, 2020, 02:50:02 pm »

It is available for review, and many have been reviewing it.  Actually it is so bug ridden that Microsoft tried to fix it, but could not.
So you have not used it to calculate the numbers for Sweden? Who has? Do you have a link?
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JoeKitchen

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #4039 on: May 08, 2020, 03:09:59 pm »

What I don't understand is why - if Joe (and his links) are to be believed - Neil Ferguson received these awards and honours:
"Ferguson was appointed Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2002 New Year Honours for his work modelling the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak. He was elected a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (FMedSci) in 2005.[58] He is also an International Member of the US National Academy of Medicine." - Wikipedia

Prof Neil Ferguson is one of the world's most influential disease modellers.
He is director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis.
The centre's mathematical predictions advise governments and the World Health Organization on outbreaks from Ebola in West Africa to the current pandemic.
It was that group's work, in early January, that alerted the world to the threat of coronavirus." - BBC News.  https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-52553229

"But today’s lurid front-page headlines follow a campaign to discredit him by those ideologically opposed to government interventions, and who have used such tactics against scientists in other fields, particularly climate change." - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/06/neil-ferguson-scientists-media-government-adviser-social-distancing

Say no more. Joe, you stick to your sources, I'll stick to mine.
Remember, there are always two side to a story.

Sucking up to politicians. 

Would not be the first time a dip shit gets politically positive treatment for being a crony.
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