PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[John Camp]

I would like to know what Israel is doing...

As of today, according to the Worldometer stats page, Israel has 13,491 confirmed cases and 172 deaths. Israel has a population of about 8.8 million.

[JoeKitchen]

As I understand it, the PA mandatory face mask order only applies to workers and shoppers in essential businesses like grocery stores and pharmacies. I don't think you are required to wear a face mask while riding your bike.

I know, I'm just playing it up. 

And out of the 1000+ I rode by today, only  about 10% were wearing.  Sanity still reigns supreme in PA. 

[JoeKitchen]

From the site you reference:

Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist.
Anders Tegnell, the architect behind Sweden’s relatively relaxed response to Covid-19, told local media the latest figures on infection rates and fatalities indicate the situation is starting to stabilize.

Gasp! He's discovered he was correct!

On the Worldometer statistics site, the Covid-19 "countries" page, the most comparable European country to Sweden in number of cases is Austria. Austria has a population of about 9 million, Sweden about 10. Austria had 14,749 confirmed cases, Sweden had 14,385. Austria had 452 deaths, Sweden had...1,540.

I didn't choose a Scandinavian country to compare to Sweden, because it would have been unfair. As almost all sites say, the other Scandinavian counties have far few cases and deaths than Sweden.

We wont know this for at least a year John, until after we can start tallying up the increases in suicides, drug overdoses, deaths due to spousal abuse, etc. from the other Scandinavian countries. 

You guys keep on forgetting about this, and insist on just writing off those deaths as "oh they were just crazy people."

[William Walker]

As of today, according to the Worldometer stats page, Israel has 13,491 confirmed cases and 172 deaths. Israel has a population of about 8.8 million.

Yes John, I took a screenshot from Worldometer because Israel and Sweden were right next to each other and the differences in deaths was so stark. I was wondering what Israel was doing in comparison to Sweden. I looked it up and it appears as though they have some strict lockdown there, not the same as Sweden! Also similar size populations and, if I am not mistaken, Israel has a higher density of population which some folks think might have a bearing.

[William Walker]

We wont know this for at least a year John, until after we can start tallying up the increases in suicides, drug overdoses, deaths due to spousal abuse, etc. from the other Scandinavian countries. 

You guys keep on forgetting about this, and insist on just writing off those deaths as "oh they were just crazy people."

Joe, just to make sure I understand you correctly: are you saying that stricter lockdown rules = more of the deaths you describe, therefore fewer restrictions = fewer of those deaths? So, at the end of the day what you lose on the swings you will gain on the roundabouts?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... As almost all sites say, the other Scandinavian counties have far few cases and deaths than Sweden.

"If your only tool in the toolbox is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."

Similarly, if your only criterium is # of dead, Sweden is doing worse than comparable countries. But neither Sweden, nor I, consider that the only parameter. Do not forget that other countries are crashing their economies with lockdowns, which will have much more lasting consequences than a seasonal event. Not to mention political consequences.

[JoeKitchen]

Joe, just to make sure I understand you correctly: are you saying that stricter lockdown rules = more of the deaths you describe, therefore fewer restrictions = fewer of those deaths? So, at the end of the day what you lose on the swings you will gain on the roundabouts?

No and yes.  Recessions and depressions bring with them increases in suicide and overdoses and other fatal side effects.  This is not new information.  Perhaps the amount of lives save is a net of 0 when you take into account the additional deaths by what I listed above. 

However in a lockdown you also get a destroyed economy whereas with Sweden's method you don't. 

If Sweden saves its economy more so then its neighbors, I would assume there will less death caused by what I said above in Sweden then the neighboring states. 

[William Walker]

"If your only tool in the toolbox is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."

Similarly, if your only criterium is # of dead, Sweden is doing worse than comparable countries. But neither Sweden, nor I, consider that the only parameter. Do not forget that other countries are crashing their economies with lockdowns, which will have much more lasting consequences than a seasonal event. Not to mention political consequences.

What you describe is, as far as I know, the dilemma facing everyone. Most countries have opted for the compassionate view with the idea that we save lives now and worry about the economy later.

Thirty-three years ago, I lost everything (financial) I had with three children to put through school and feed. We battled for ten years and gradually pulled ourselves up to the point where I am now happier with life than I have ever been. Some people kill themselves under similar circumstances.

Money is not everything - where there is life, there is hope!

I, for one, am happy to see the world show compassion over avarice and greed.
And I have a treasured Michael Kenna book (with a lovely message in it) in pride of place in my bookshelf that keeps telling me that deep down you too are a compassionate person.

[JoeKitchen]

What you describe is, as far as I know, the dilemma facing everyone. Most countries have opted for the compassionate view with the idea that we save lives now and worry about the economy later.

Thirty-three years ago, I lost everything (financial) I had with three children to put through school and feed. We battled for ten years and gradually pulled ourselves up to the point where I am now happier with life than I have ever been. Some people kill themselves under similar circumstances.

Money is not everything - where there is life, there is hope!

I, for one, am happy to see the world show compassion over avarice and greed.

I am glad for, just like with the majority who catch C-19 you were able to survive.  However, just like a with a small amount of C-19 victims, many in that situation would not. 

Money is not everything, but when someone kills themselves it is hard to explain this to them.   

[chez]

I am glad for, just like with the majority who catch C-19 you were able to survive.  However, just like a with a small amount of C-19 victims, many in that situation would not. 

Money is not everything, but when someone kills themselves it is hard to explain this to them.

I thought there were programs in place to help people that lost their job to Covid. Is that not right?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... I, for one, am happy to see the world show compassion over avarice and greed.

But that is a false dichotomy, Will. The other side of the compassion is not greed, but everyday life for billions. There are millions of people that if they don't work today, they won't be eating today. I am glad you recovered after ten years, but would anyone waste ten years of their life? The crisis of 2008 left me seven years without a full time work in my profession, from which I never recovered, at my age (the proverbial gap in your resume, especially close to retirement). The economy is not just corporations, and definitely not just greed. Now, it is up to each of us to determine the balance of "money is not everything" vs. providing for a decent living.

My daughter secured a well-paid internship with a very reputable global company in Miami (paid internships are still rare). She worked very hard to get it (it wasn't via her school), and was very proud of her success. This isn't just about some pocket money for her summer fun. Schools kick them out over the summer, so she would have to rent an apartment and pay for her food. Not everyone has mom and dad to go back to over the summer. Also, a well executed internship often leads to a job offer upon graduation. That is all gone now. It is really a big question if the generation of college graduates in 2021 will be able to find a job. She was inconsolably crying the whole day when she got the message.

[JoeKitchen]

I thought there were programs in place to help people that lost their job to Covid. Is that not right?

Not mental health programs, just financial. 

There was forum member from New Zealand who was an active contributor on LL years back.  He was a very talented commercial photographer who was always up beat, especially if you spoke to him in DM, which I did.  Even those who knew in person said so, and the reason we know this is because he killed himself due to financial issues. 

No one, not even his wife, saw it coming. 

So, dont act like we will be able to recognize and help people in this position as well, because we just wont be able to recognize all of them.  This is what this lockdown will bring, death, just like C-19. 

I still think Sweden took the best route.  They kept their economy going.  At the end of it, I bet Sweden will have a net 0 death toll compared to other countries when you take into account suicides, overdoses and other death increases due to a recession, yet they will still have an economy. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

I thought there were programs in place to help people that lost their job to Covid. Is that not right?

Technically, you are correct. But there are many glitches right now, given how overwhelmed the system is, which was never designed to withstand a total shutdown and 20-30 millions of unemployed. It is been reported that people are spending half a day on hold and still not able to get through. Not everyone is full-time employed. Many employed are in a gray area, temp work, or work without being registered, below the number of hours to qualify for a particular status. Then there is a gig economy (Uber, for instance). Many individual contractors. Etc., etc.

And even when people start getting their unemployment benefits, those are hardly enough to pay the bills. The whole system was never designed for an event like this. When you lose work, you were supposed to look for another, that's how the system is designed. At this moment, there is no point of looking for work when almost everything is shut down.

[chez]

Not mental health programs, just financial. 

There was forum member from New Zealand who was an active contributor on LL years back.  He was a very talented commercial photographer who was always up beat, especially if you spoke to him in DM, which I did.  Even those who knew in person said so, and the reason we know this is because he killed himself due to financial issues. 

No one, not even his wife, saw it coming. 

So, dont act like we will be able to recognize and help people in this position as well, because we just wont be able to recognize all of them.  This is what this lockdown will bring, death, just like C-19. 

I still think Sweden took the best route.  They kept their economy going.  At the end of it, I bet Sweden will have a net 0 death toll compared to other countries when you take into account suicides, overdoses and other death increases due to a recession, yet they will still have an economy.

But this lockdown is not like being thrown into a 5x7 cell and locked in. One can go out, get groceries or other necessary items. One can go for a walk. One can even converse with neighbours as long as you are separated. I'm not getting this picture that you are painting.

[JoeKitchen]

Technically, you are correct. But there are many glitches right now, given how overwhelmed the system is, which was never designed to withstand a total shutdown and 20-30 millions of unemployed. It is been reported that people are spending half a day on hold and still not able to get through. Not everyone is full-time employed. Many employed are in a gray area, temp work, or work without being registered, below the number of hours to qualify for a particular status. Then there is a gig economy (Uber, for instance). Many individual contractors. Etc., etc.

And even when people start getting their unemployment benefits, those are hardly enough to pay the bills. The whole system was never designed for an event like this. When you lose work, you were supposed to look for another, that's how the system is designed. At this moment, there is no point of looking for work when almost everything is shut down.

My wife and I have a fair amount of liquidity, but we decided that since we are being forced to shut down and the 5th Amendment states that due compensation must be given if government seises your property, which they are doing in forcing us to shut down, that we would file for the new special independent contractor self employment.  It took me 3 hours to file a claim on the website. 

My wife, for some reason was incorrectly classified as getting her wages from an employer, instead of being self-employed, of which 1000s were mistakingly classified as.  So lots of glitches. 

BTW, this was put into law three weeks ago and it only became live yesterday. 

[JoeKitchen]

But this lockdown is not like being thrown into a 5x7 cell and locked in. One can go out, get groceries or other necessary items. One can go for a walk. One can even converse with neighbours as long as you are separated. I'm not getting this picture that you are painting.

Explain that to the dead corpse of a friend that you only found out after the fact that he was having financial difficulties. 

Like I said, people will kill themselves over this, and many will do so without any warning. 

Have you ever known someone that has killed himself?  There's no logic to it. 

And I think you are completely naive when it comes to economics.  You cant just turn off and then turn on the economy without very serious effects.  A 1/6 of wealth for the year has been lost due to government action.  That is a huge amount.  My sister is looking for a house this year.  I told her it will probably be impossible for her to get a loan if this goes on for much longer.  She just cant understand why, but will soon find out.  Thankfully I bought a handyman special and my mortgage is a joke. 

[William Walker]

But that is a false dichotomy, Will. The other side of the compassion is not greed, but everyday life for billions. There are millions of people that if they don't work today, they won't be eating today. I am glad you recovered after ten years, but would anyone waste ten years of their life? The crisis of 2008 left me seven years without a full time work in my profession, from which I never recovered, at my age (the proverbial gap in your resume, especially close to retirement). The economy is not just corporations, and definitely not just greed. Now, it is up to each of us to determine the balance of "money is not everything" vs. providing for a decent living.

My daughter secured a well-paid internship with a very reputable global company in Miami (paid internships are still rare). She worked very hard to get it (it wasn't via her school), and was very proud of her success. This isn't just about some pocket money for her summer fun. Schools kick them out over the summer, so she would have to rent an apartment and pay for her food. Not everyone has mom and dad to go back to over the summer. Also, a well executed internship often leads to a job offer upon graduation. That is all gone now. It is really a big question if the generation of college graduates in 2021 will be able to find a job. She was inconsolably crying the whole day when she got the message.

I'll reply tomorrow, I'm on an iPad now and it's a real ball-ache! Bedtime!

[chez]

Explain that to the dead corpse of a friend that you only found out after the fact that he was having financial difficulties. 

Like I said, people will kill themselves over this, and many will do so without any warning. 

Have you ever known someone that has killed himself?  There's no logic to it.

Yes, my uncle committed suicide. There is no logic and many suicide have been occurring prior to this virus. Have no idea how many more will occur during the lockdown. Also one needs to look at how many other deaths, heart attacks, strokes etc... are occurring because medical systems are over run. I can imagine in NY there are many that just fall by the side as there is no doctor available to help.

Bottom line best measure of deaths is after the fact where you take total deaths for the time Covid was active and subtract the average over this same time from previous years. That will give you a good picture of deaths either directly or indirectly related to Covid.

[faberryman]

I still think Sweden took the best route.  They kept their economy going.  At the end of it, I bet Sweden will have a net 0 death toll compared to other countries when you take into account suicides, overdoses and other death increases due to a recession, yet they will still have an economy.

Wow, someone said something positive about a "socialist" country without a bunch of immediate blow back.

[JoeKitchen]

Wow, someone said something positive about a "socialist" country without a bunch of immediate blow back.

It's not socialist.  As a matter of fact, the Swedish PM has repeatably ask Bernie to stop say they are socialist and have talk about how adopting market based solutions lead to their current prosperity.  You have some pretty bad information if you think this.