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Author Topic: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political  (Read 507391 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #700 on: April 13, 2020, 09:40:25 pm »

I think it's true to say that people only dislike experts who tell them what they don't want to hear.
I was at trial once.  I had an expert representing my side and they had their expert representing theirs.  The court interviewed and agreed both were experts in the same field and accepted them as witnesses.   The jury didn't believe my expert and I lost the case. 

Like I said, there are liars, damn liars, and experts.

armand

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #701 on: April 13, 2020, 09:42:34 pm »

Is that why you are so bitter? I wish you would live a day in a world without experts.

chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #702 on: April 13, 2020, 09:46:28 pm »

I was at trial once.  I had an expert representing my side and they had their expert representing theirs.  The court interviewed and agreed both were experts in the same field and accepted them as witnesses.   The jury didn't believe my expert and I lost the case. 

Like I said, there are liars, damn liars, and experts.

Alan, it's seems everyone you hire be it the expert at your trial, your financial advisor etc... Has fucked you. Ever think it might be you and not the experts that are wrong?
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #703 on: April 13, 2020, 09:48:08 pm »

If the "economy" is opened up soon (before there is so little virus left that it becomes difficult to catch; less than 1 transmission rate, if that's the correct term), what will prevent a resurgence in new cases and deaths so that you have to close the economy again?

What will happen between now and the time of re-opening to prevent a repeat of what we've just lived through?
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #704 on: April 13, 2020, 09:55:09 pm »

You make the assumption that if you open the economy all will the rosy; almost for sure people will get sick/die or be afraid of getting sick that it won't get back anywhere near normal.
I don't think anybody on this forum has any half decent info to know how things will go, either way.
At 75 years old, I plan in staying isolated and will only come out with caution.  Others will be braver.  But they have to work.  Me?  I'm retired and my monthly Social Security and pensions checks are deposited in my checking account.  I don't even have to go to the bank. So I can play it safe.

The fact is, this country is reopening again. Soon.  As long as the curve is going down, it's going to happen. Maybe sooner.  Maybe later. But within weeks. I predicted May 4th. It probably will be a rolling opening with certain industries first depending on location.   As I posted, the governors of many key states have already gotten together to agree to come up with an approach for how it's going to work in their regions.  Each state and region will handle it a little differently depending on numerous factors. America is a big country geographically and diverse in population density.  The president, likewise, agrees the time is right if the coronavirus numbers are right.  Fauci and the other experts agree.  It's going to happen. 

Will it work?  I hope so.  Else, we're in dire trouble economically which means people are going to starve and get wiped out economically including that pizza guy. Even if it works out well, many people are going to be left without a job and suffering economically.  The country and the world have taken a huge blow. 

faberryman

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #705 on: April 13, 2020, 10:00:04 pm »

I just read that Ivanka and Jared are on Trump’s reopening the economy committee. I am not sure if they were designated medical or economic experts.
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #706 on: April 13, 2020, 10:02:51 pm »

I never said that I'm a statistician. I'm not. But your memory is really terrible and/or you should make a minimal effort to recall what others are saying, otherwise you'll keep repeating the same thing over and over despite being answered in past.
We're up to page 36.  No one's said anything original in 35 pages.   Ask Jeremy.  :)

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #707 on: April 13, 2020, 10:05:40 pm »

Alan, it's seems everyone you hire be it the expert at your trial, your financial advisor etc... Has fucked you. Ever think it might be you and not the experts that are wrong?
It never crossed my mind. ;)

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #708 on: April 13, 2020, 10:12:57 pm »

If the "economy" is opened up soon (before there is so little virus left that it becomes difficult to catch; less than 1 transmission rate, if that's the correct term), what will prevent a resurgence in new cases and deaths so that you have to close the economy again?

What will happen between now and the time of re-opening to prevent a repeat of what we've just lived through?
That's an excellent point, one that concerns me as well as does it coming back again next season in a different form.  All sorts of bad possibilities.  But how long can the country and world afford to be shut down?   

I noticed a report that shows that food is starting to become a problem as it's rotting and can't be shipped expeditiously. But whether to open is all a moot point.  State and Federal government have decided to move ahead and reopen industry.  They're just working out the particulars and timing.  Let's hope that the virus will die out like the flu does every year.

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #709 on: April 13, 2020, 10:17:49 pm »

Alan, it's seems everyone you hire be it the expert at your trial, your financial advisor etc... Has fucked you. Ever think it might be you and not the experts that are wrong?
I'm not saying experts are liars.  It's worse than that.  Because they're experts, people often take what they say as the gospel.  Before the 2008 economic collapse and recession, 98% of the economic and financial and banking experts did not see a dark cloud on the horizon.  Experts all. 

chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #710 on: April 13, 2020, 10:21:12 pm »

That's an excellent point, one that concerns me as well as does it coming back again next season in a different form.  All sorts of bad possibilities.  But how long can the country and world afford to be shut down?   

I noticed a report that shows that food is starting to become a problem as it's rotting and can't be shipped expeditiously. But whether to open is all a moot point.  State and Federal government have decided to move ahead and reopen industry.  They're just working out the particulars and timing.  Let's hope that the virus will die out like the flu does every year.

Why can't food be shipped? Isn't it classified as an essential service and shipping not disrupted by Covid shutdown?

The problems truckers were having here is the closure of many truck stops leaving truckers no place to wash up or eat. Since the cry went out, things opened up and even food trucks moved in to help with the feeding.

The only issues I am seeing here regarding groceries is that certain items are in very high demand such as yeast and eggs...but that's not a shipping problem but a supply problem that is self correcting.
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chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #711 on: April 13, 2020, 10:33:26 pm »

I'm not saying experts are liars.  It's worse than that.  Because they're experts, people often take what they say as the gospel.  Before the 2008 economic collapse and recession, 98% of the economic and financial and banking experts did not see a dark cloud on the horizon.  Experts all.

Come on Alan, you are smarter than that. Surely you know everything is determined by very few, very wealthy people and they are the ones that yank the strings and watch how the world reacts. Do you think a guy like Trump really has any power or say in thins. He's just a puppet, like others before him and others to follow, that are controlled by strings by this elite club. When they pull his right string...his right hand goes up...the more they pull, the higher it goes.

You can have all these brilliant experts, but when this elite group wants to go a certain way, no expert nor political figure will stop them.

Surely you know of this group.
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #712 on: April 13, 2020, 10:43:11 pm »

Come on Alan, you are smarter than that. Surely you know everything is determined by very few, very wealthy people and they are the ones that yank the strings and watch how the world reacts. Do you think a guy like Trump really has any power or say in thins. He's just a puppet, like others before him and others to follow, that are controlled by strings by this elite club. When they pull his right string...his right hand goes up...the more they pull, the higher it goes.

You can have all these brilliant experts, but when this elite group wants to go a certain way, no expert nor political figure will stop them.

Surely you know of this group.

Maybe I didn't make myself clear.  The experts included professors of economics, business people, investors of all stripes, etc.  They didn't have to be rich and well connected.  So these unrich unconnected experts weren't predicting the collapse. They didn't see the bubbles in the real estate market that was clear as a bell in retrospect and to the 2% who did see it.  So experts, with all the professorial position and practical experience of investment counselors refused or didn't want to see the bubble. 

Being experts didn't matter.  Over and over again, experts are wrong.  There's also a tendency to preach to the choir.  Experts agree with other experts because the other expert said it so they believe it too without doing a real analysis. People, even experts, are lazy.  They think in the box.  They're not really experts but rather just ordinary people who read what other experts say and say the same things.  And then average people like you and me believe them and lose our shirts. :)

chez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #713 on: April 13, 2020, 10:58:54 pm »

Maybe I didn't make myself clear.  The experts included professors of economics, business people, investors of all stripes, etc.  They didn't have to be rich and well connected.  So these unrich unconnected experts weren't predicting the collapse. They didn't see the bubbles in the real estate market that was clear as a bell in retrospect and to the 2% who did see it.  So experts, with all the professorial position and practical experience of investment counselors refused or didn't want to see the bubble. 

Being experts didn't matter.  Over and over again, experts are wrong.  There's also a tendency to preach to the choir.  Experts agree with other experts because the other expert said it so they believe it too without doing a real analysis. People, even experts, are lazy.  They think in the box.  They're not really experts but rather just ordinary people who read what other experts say and say the same things.  And then average people like you and me believe them and lose our shirts. :)

I understood what you said about experts. It's just once this secret society decides to swerve right instead of going left...we'll all swerve right...no matter what experts say, no matter what different leaders do...we are all just puppets. So 2008 was just an experiment caused by this society to judge how the world economies would handle the chaos. Been going on forever through the ages...group of powerful people from all over the world in this society with their goal to rule the world.

You and I and all our experts could be merrily going in one direction when out of the blue the society decides to go another direction and all we can do is follow.

Many powerful people in this world from actors, sports, politicians, sheiks etc... Belong to this society.
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Raul_Rodriguez

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #714 on: April 13, 2020, 11:00:12 pm »

Curious about this new deal about "The President has total control" that Trump was blasting today and how does it fit with the laws in this land. Are the States reopening only when Trump tells them to do so? Is it OK as long as we're talking about Trump wanting to reopen vs the States wanting to stay shut? Or is it also OK if he wants the States to remain in lock-down but the Governors want to start reopening.

Also, LMAO, Trump doing "newsreels" like in WWII. That was fun to watch. Looking forward to catching one of these at the theater, if I ever go to one again.

elliot_n

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #715 on: April 13, 2020, 11:02:13 pm »

If the "economy" is opened up soon (before there is so little virus left that it becomes difficult to catch; less than 1 transmission rate, if that's the correct term), what will prevent a resurgence in new cases and deaths so that you have to close the economy again?

A complex system of state surveillance. (A hard sell in America, so probably after the second wave.)
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Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #716 on: April 13, 2020, 11:03:55 pm »

At least gasoline prices are cheap although I'm doing very little driving.


Cheap oil isn't going away, even after record production cuts
The average price of a gallon of gas has tumbled to just $1.87 a gallon ($.49/liter), according to AAA. That's down from $2.30 a month ago and well below the year-ago levels of $2.82.[/i]
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/business/oil-prices-opec-deal-trump-putin/index.html

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #717 on: April 13, 2020, 11:05:44 pm »

I understood what you said about experts. It's just once this secret society decides to swerve right instead of going left...we'll all swerve right...no matter what experts say, no matter what different leaders do...we are all just puppets. So 2008 was just an experiment caused by this society to judge how the world economies would handle the chaos. Been going on forever through the ages...group of powerful people from all over the world in this society with their goal to rule the world.

You and I and all our experts could be merrily going in one direction when out of the blue the society decides to go another direction and all we can do is follow.

Many powerful people in this world from actors, sports, politicians, sheiks etc... Belong to this society.
Well, certainly I don't control much according to my wife.  :)

Alan Klein

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #718 on: April 13, 2020, 11:12:46 pm »

Curious about this new deal about "The President has total control" that Trump was blasting today and how does it fit with the laws in this land. Are the States reopening only when Trump tells them to do so? Is it OK as long as we're talking about Trump wanting to reopen vs the States wanting to stay shut? Or is it also OK if he wants the States to remain in lock-down but the Governors want to start reopening.

Also, LMAO, Trump doing "newsreels" like in WWII. That was fun to watch. Looking forward to catching one of these at the theater, if I ever go to one again.


We're in full campaign mode.  Trump is getting free advertising for his campaign ads. :) 

As far as who opens the country, I lean towards the states as most of the control is within each state. (restaurants, theaters, public transportation, etc.)  Of course the Federal government controls some things too. (interstate transportation, rail, air,  etc.) I think they'll work it out before it gets to the Supreme Court.  We don't have the time to screw around. 

John Camp

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Re: PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political
« Reply #719 on: April 13, 2020, 11:14:49 pm »

Maybe I didn't make myself clear.  The experts included professors of economics, business people, investors of all stripes, etc.  They didn't have to be rich and well connected.  So these unrich unconnected experts weren't predicting the collapse. They didn't see the bubbles in the real estate market that was clear as a bell in retrospect and to the 2% who did see it.  So experts, with all the professorial position and practical experience of investment counselors refused or didn't want to see the bubble. 

Being experts didn't matter.  Over and over again, experts are wrong.  There's also a tendency to preach to the choir.  Experts agree with other experts because the other expert said it so they believe it too without doing a real analysis. People, even experts, are lazy.  They think in the box.  They're not really experts but rather just ordinary people who read what other experts say and say the same things.  And then average people like you and me believe them and lose our shirts. :)

Some of the experts saw the 2008-09 crash coming. And they made a lot of money at it. If you haven't seen it yet, watch the movie "The Big Short." Some --quite a few, actually -- saw the pandemic coming, and issued warnings.

I will have to say that despite my acknowledged belief that Trump is a buffoon, a dunce and a dullard, a twit, a prat and an avaricious crook, a proto-fascist and a sinner of the first water, who richly deserves to go to hell (for those of you who believe in such a place) and who should be required by law to wear a pair of Clown Shoes so everybody who meets him will know what they're dealing with...Despite that, I would have to disagree with chez about this puppet thing -- what set of crazy morons could be pulling his strings to get him to do what he's done? Nope, he's done it all on his own (and relying on his gut, of course, which is easily his most substantial asset.)

That aside, I've also seen the reports that Alan is referring to, which hint at a possibly developing problem with food supplies. Meat supplies for sure, which doesn't bother me too much, as I'm a vegetarian, but if everyone who can't have his pork chop at night starts eating my salads, I could have a problem as well. It seems that many different kinds of food processing plants have had to slow down or even stop the processing, because to go full-speed requires lots of people to work in close quarters, and that a number of these plants, quite a few people have gotten sick and some have died. The biggest pork processor in the country is now closed...If we start having food problems, we could see some substantial civil unrest.

As far as reopening is concerned, we're just starting to see a surge of cases here in New Mexico. We're probably at least three to four weeks from a peak -- probably won't see it until sometime in May, or so Alan's experts say. If that's the case, we probably can't start reopening until June. What I hope doesn't happen is that Clown Shoes doesn't order the entire country to open at once, including the places that haven't peaked, so we get another surge of infection. If we reopen, it's going to have to be slow, and in careful stages, and at different times in different parts of the country. And if we don't wait long enough, we'll get another surge anyway.

IMHO. 

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