PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[armand]

The  numbers keep on coming down every week.  Aside from the initial 2.2M estimate, every model has taken into account  our measures, yet they keep on going down and down, showing the experts really dont know enough to make any kind of predictions. 

But anyway, since we keep on adjusting our models constantly, week after, don't you think it would be best to adjust our prescription too?  Especially since everyone is starting to loose faith in it, and petty tyrants seems to be on the rise?   We are still working off of the 2.2M prediction, yet it have been revised down 5 times so far, at least.  I've lost count how many times the models have been wrong.

I already wrote this before, if the mortality numbers are coming down it means the current measures are working more than anything else.
I'm sure there are plenty of people in the higher ups who know how to add 1+1 in terms of lockdown for mortality vs opening for economy. It's just when Trump keeps contradicting what his expert are saying (on some clear stuff, not lockdown or not) I have not trust that there is a cohesive plan developed. I get it that if economy stays closed much more there will be a large increase in mortality and a huge increase in morbidity, however it's not that clear cut that if you open it you are not going to lose even more by the sheer amount of people dead or sick.
I don't have the knowledge to decide on this (not to mention I don't have the info either) and I'm sure there are people who know how to deal with this, within some margin for error. But so far the message and the response has been so fucked up that I have no idea where this is going now.

Experts’ message?

That message doesn’t need experts. Any five-year old with learning difficulties could have come up with the same message: impose a 24/7 lockdown for a year, and voila!... no spread.

Yeah, right! Keep trying.

[chez]

Aside form the first one, the 2.2M prediction.  Then every one after did and what happened?

We went from 500K, then to 150K to 250K, then to 100K to 200K, then to 80K, then to 60K. 

It's all becoming a joke.  Every week it keeps on going down yet we insist on the same measures as when we thought it would be 2.2M?  That makes no sense. 

As conditions change, you change your strategy. 

BTW, studies are starting to show fatality is much lower amongst those young and healthy.  At 0.1%, I'd surely take the risk then sitting in my house earning no income waiting to default on my mortgage or starve due to lack of food, like many people are already looking at. 

It's amazing, liberals talk as if they care about the poor, but they'd rather see them living on the street because they think they know better.

Come on...richest country in the world and people are starving after a few weeks of shutdown. I call BS.
I believe it was predicted by people on this forum about rioting in the streets after 2 weeks of isolation. Show me.

Surely the richest country around won't let its people starve...or maybe we need another 4 years of Trump so he can make America great again.

I think a little bit of Chickle Little is coming out from you...

[JoeKitchen]

Come on...richest country in the world and people are starving after a few weeks of shutdown. I call BS.
I believe it was predicted by people on this forum about rioting in the streets after 2 weeks of isolation. Show me.

Surely the richest country around won't let its people starve...or maybe we need another 4 years of Trump so he can make America great again.

I think a little bit of Chickle Little is coming out from you...

And I call what you are saying being elitist, the same mentality that got Trump elected. 

My local news keeps on running story after story about people going broke over this shut down.  I care more for them, my neighbors, then the elites.  I'd rather seem them get back to work and not get evicted then the upper class elite continue to live at home without financial hardship. 

The fact is, this statement could only come from someone who has never actually seen poverty, and it shows to anyone who has. 

[JoeKitchen]

I already wrote this before, if the mortality numbers are coming down it means the current measures are working more than anything else.
I'm sure there are plenty of people in the higher ups who know how to add 1+1 in terms of lockdown for mortality vs opening for economy. It's just when Trump keeps contradicting what his expert are saying (on some clear stuff, not lockdown or not) I have not trust that there is a cohesive plan developed. I get it that if economy stays closed much more there will be a large increase in mortality and a huge increase in morbidity, however it's not that clear cut that if you open it you are not going to lose even more by the sheer amount of people dead or sick.
I don't have the knowledge to decide on this (not to mention I don't have the info either) and I'm sure there are people who know how to deal with this, within some margin for error. But so far the message and the response has been so fucked up that I have no idea where this is going now.


Yeah, right! Keep trying.

And as I keep on saying, the fact that the mortality numbers keep on coming down even after after the models started to take into account what we have been doing shows the models are not accurate the in the least. 

Those so called experts never had enough data to accurately predict this event, and as it is becoming obvious.  It is also becoming obvious none of them have the humility to admit it. 

[chez]

And I call what you are saying being elitist, the same mentality that got Trump elected. 

My local news keeps on running story after story about people going broke over this shut down.  I care more for them, my neighbors, then the elites.  I'd rather seem them get back to work and not get evicted then the upper class elite continue to live at home without financial hardship. 

The fact is, this statement could only come from someone who has never actually seen poverty, and it shows to anyone who has.

Would you rather see them die or go back to work?

As far as not seeing poverty, I've been traveling the last 5 years to many places where what you call poverty, actually having a roof and not a piece of tin over their heads, is actually called luxury. I spent a week with a family in Tanzania where they just built a new house out of straw and mud, their floor dirt / mud and a piece of plastic on their floor in the living room. Their pride showed through the big smiles as they talked about their new house.

In Vietnam I spent weeks in a remote village where again the houses were made of scrap wood along with tin roofs. Their meals consisted of mainly rice and a vegetable...every single day. Many men hooked on opium as their only escape. In winter, they had to share their 2 room house with their water buffalo as it gets cold and if their Buffalo dies, their family dies. In a good year they might have some extra rice they sell so they can buy some clothes or maybe another shovel. In a bad year, many only have 1 meal a day.

Please don't think I have not seen poverty. Someone who owns a pizza shop and goes out of business for a few months is far from poverty. I believe it is you that really has not seen poverty as someone without work for a few months is far from poverty that prevails most of the other world you are oblivious to.

[JoeKitchen]

The funny thing about all this? 

I was having a conversation with a friend of mine today, a conservative, and we both feel Trump will start opening up this economy sooner then later.  At which point the media will criticize him for doing so, too early they will claim, saying he cares more about money then lives.  Yet, I'd bet, there wont be a drastic increase in death. 

Shortly there after, the economy will start doing better and death will go down (and never get too out of control, meaning that no one will die due to hospitals being over run like Cuomo has been saying in NYC).  Right at that point, the narrative will change; the media and liberals will start criticizing Trump for not opening the economy up sooner. 

I'd bet even some here will get on the band wagon saying if only he'd get the country back to work sooner. 

Mark my words, I'd bet good money this will happen. 

[JoeKitchen]

Would you rather see them die or go back to work?

As far as not seeing poverty, I've been traveling the last 5 years to many places where what you call poverty, actually having a roof and not a piece of tin over their heads, is actually called luxury. I spent a week with a family in Tanzania where they just built a new house out of straw and mud, their floor dirt / mud and a piece of plastic on their floor in the living room. Their pride showed through the big smiles as they talked about their new house.

In Vietnam I spent weeks in a remote village where again the houses were made of scrap wood along with tin roofs. Their meals consisted of mainly rice and a vegetable...every single day. Many men hooked on opium as their only escape. In winter, they had to share their 2 room house with their water buffalo as it gets cold and if their Buffalo dies, their family dies. In a good year they might have some extra rice they sell so they can buy some clothes or maybe another shovel. In a bad year, many only have 1 meal a day.

Please don't think I have not seen poverty. Someone who owns a pizza shop and goes out of business for a few months is far from poverty. I believe it is you that really has not seen poverty as someone without work for a few months is far from poverty that prevails most of the other world you are oblivious to.

Just proving my point Chez, just proving my point. 

And as a point of criticisms on your story, I'd bet not one of those you list could give a rat's ass more about the virus then eating and getting that tin roof over their head.  Just like many in the USA will be put into soon enough. 

[chez]

Just proving my point Chez, just proving my point. 

And as a point of criticisms on your story, I'd bet not one of those you list could give a rat's ass more about the virus then eating and getting that tin roof over their head.  Just like many on the USA will be point into soon.

You are so wrong here Joe. There is a definite fear in Africa for many viruses that we don't need to worry about here. I was actually quite impressed with their hygiene before eating. Viruses has done major damage throughout Africa.

Joe, you are just showing your ignorance the more you post.

[JoeKitchen]

You are so wrong here Joe. There is a definite fear in Africa for many viruses that we don't need to worry about here. I was actually quite impressed with their hygiene before eating. Viruses has done major damage throughout Africa.

Joe, you are just showing your ignorance the more you post.

Having food to eat and not being clean is much different then not having food to eat. 

The former may lead to death whereas the latter most certainly will. 

You're acting as if anyone living on the street in the USA because the economic shut down, costing them the ability to have shelter and food, is the same as someone with food being proactive about being clean.  It's not the same. 

Your policies would cost many their house and ability to buy food here.  Like I said, you dont seem to understand the situation. 

There are runs on food banks, right now, in Philly. 

PS, please tell me those viruses and the case mortality rates so we can make a true apples to apples comparison.  Thank you.

[Alan Klein]

Could you provide a link to Trump's plan for reopening? Thanks.

The point is that the governors, even democrats in the worse states hit by the virus,  find urgency in re-opening the economy just like the president does. The press has been trying to make it seem that only Trump is concerned about the economy  Everyone is.  Even state level government. 

[armand]

I was just trying to explain how these models works and how easy is to influence the outcome. That's why not the general population makes decisions on them.
All will have flaws, some will be better than others, all will depend on how much info we have.

Funny thing is I personally rarely looked at them (the absolute numbers in particular) because their margin of error was quite large, and they had huge confidence intervals. Not to mention I don't have policy making responsibilities. What I cared about was timing and curves, when should we expect the increase and how fast can it grow.
It seems that the general population like you gets stuck with this forgetting those who interpret them have different system of values.
There are trade offs, and you have to decide if you are going to get ready for the worst case scenario or somewhere in between (for US is kind of rhetorical, we never got anywhere close to being ready for the worst case scenario).
Other models looks for other things, for example the Dutch model seems to be geared towards not overwhelming the ICUs, not to reduce the total number of cases.

Were all the models initially released that accurate? of course not, they missed important info not available at that time. But you can fly in the dark or try to come up with something to give you an idea, knowing there is a large margin for error, and adjust on the fly as new info comes in.
Here is an article about how these models are "rushed in" and adjusted on the fly: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

[armand]

Having food to eat and not being clean is much different then not having food to eat. 

The former may lead to death whereas the latter most certainly will. 

You're acting as if anyone living on the street in the USA because the economic shut down, costing them the ability to have shelter and food, is the same as someone with food being proactive about being clean.  It's not the same. 

Your policies would cost many their house and ability to buy food here.  Like I said, you dont seem to understand the situation. 

There are runs on food banks, right now, in Philly. 

PS, please tell me those viruses and the case mortality rates so we can make a true apples to apples comparison.  Thank you.

You make the assumption that if you open the economy all will the rosy; almost for sure people will get sick/die or be afraid of getting sick that it won't get back anywhere near normal.
I don't think anybody on this forum has any half decent info to know how things will go, either way.

[Alan Klein]

Wrong about what? There has been a very consistent message in February, at least 1.5 months before the administration accepted it. The message has been consistent on what's the best way to contain it.
Some say that we should look at other countries and see what they are doing well. It doesn't matter what they do, we knew for a while, Trump knows best and he'll go by his hunches or whatever before he listens to actual advice.

The models are adjusted based on the response and in the end it's statistics that's at play here. If you throw something from a plane yet you have wind gusts it won't land where you initially planned. However if you have the time, and the direction/speed of the wind gust, your prediction will be more accurate after each. That's just an example I came up with right now so not ideal. And while those experts that design the models might come from a medical filed, they could very well be just statisticians. Modern statistics is one of the hardest things to fully grasp.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. 

[armand]

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

That is at some extent true. You have to really know what's involved and how it's done to get an accurate picture. Current studies in medicine are a nightmare, many times you have to be a trained statistician to fully understand how they obtained and processed their data.

[chez]

Having food to eat and not being clean is much different then not having food to eat. 

The former may lead to death whereas the latter most certainly will. 

You're acting as if anyone living on the street in the USA because the economic shut down, costing them the ability to have shelter and food, is the same as someone with food being proactive about being clean.  It's not the same. 

Your policies would cost many their house and ability to buy food here.  Like I said, you dont seem to understand the situation. 

There are runs on food banks, right now, in Philly. 

PS, please tell me those viruses and the case mortality rates so we can make a true apples to apples comparison.  Thank you.

Yes we have homeless here in Canada that rely on church groups and food banks...but we had them like in the USA before Covid and we'll have this problem after Covid goes away.

But we were talking about people with roofs over their heads, owners of small businesses like a Pizza shop being out of business for a few months. I have not looked into what your government is doing to help the people that lost their jobs or small businesses that are forced to be closed...but if there is no help from the government to help these people...well shame on the government...shame on Trump. Surely the government of the richest country in the world won't let a small business owner that was forced to shut down...to starve and become homeless.

[Alan Klein]

The fact is that we do not have enough data to concretely predict anything, and the more data we get, the better off this situation looks.  It seems to me the major problem is the scientists and experts dont have the humility to admit that they have been wrong, even while continuing to be obviously wrong.

Science is not a concrete method.  The scientific method needs concrete and accurate data, which we have not been getting due to the coverups in China.  Therefore, the experts can not predict the future to a significantly better degree then anyone else.  All of this could be for not, and no one can really give an answer whether it is or not. 

There are liars, damn liars, and experts.

[armand]

There are liars, damn liars, and experts.

This is just a purely idiotic comment. Really. I can't call it any other way. Maybe you were trying to say something else? Are you calling somebody who's good at what their are doing a liar because you don't understand what they are doing?

At your job you were an expert compared to me, and yet I came to you telling you you don't know what you are doing and you should do something stupid (for you, knowing what your are doing). What would you say about that?

PS. the last question is rhetorical

[Robert Roaldi]

There are liars, damn liars, and experts.

I think it's true to say that people only dislike experts who tell them what they don't want to hear.

[Alan Klein]

That is at some extent true. You have to really know what's involved and how it's done to get an accurate picture. Current studies in medicine are a nightmare, many times you have to be a trained statistician to fully understand how they obtained and processed their data.

I think you mentioned you're a statistician.  So you know that even if the figures are correct, it's how you present the graph that can influence the audience. If you show absolute numbers of death for example, the US looks terrible.  But the US is the third largest populated country in the world.  So if you compared to population, the graph looks better.  If you compare to tests given, it will look different again.  If you input "hot spots" vs. the entire country, you'll get two totally different graphs.  Pick the graph type to make whatever point you want to make.   

[armand]

I think you mentioned you're a statistician.  So you know that even if the figures are correct, it's how you present the graph that can influence the audience. If you show absolute numbers of death for example, the US looks terrible.  But the US is the third largest populated country in the world.  So if you compared to population, the graph looks better.  If you compare to tests given, it will look different again.  If you input "hot spots" vs. the entire country, you'll get two totally different graphs.  Pick the graph type to make whatever point you want to make.

I never said that I'm a statistician. I'm not. But your memory is really terrible and/or you should make a minimal effort to recall what others are saying, otherwise you'll keep repeating the same thing over and over despite being answered in past.