PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[faberryman]

Governors want to re-open the economy just like Republican Trump wants. New York Democrat Governor Cuomo of the worst hit state wants regional opening in a plan very similar to Trump's.

Could you provide a link to Trump's plan for reopening? Thanks.

[Rob C]

Rob,

Do you laminate your card? Or let it stick out of your breast pocket, proudly beaming red?

 

No, laminates look cheap: I print my own. Colours look whorish on cards, like something they used to stick in public 'phone boxes.

:-)

[Rob C]

How the hell can you scold another country about weaponizing when you live in a country that spends trillions more on its weapons cash and research than on its own people that so many go without proper healthcare. Shame on you.

There are two types of people beyond shame: those born shameless; those born dumb. For the latter, one can reserve pity.

:-)

[JoeKitchen]

Before you start the party, read the news releases. They are going to set up committees to have conferences to plan when they might reopen. That sounds like June or July to me, if they're the kinds of committees I'm familiar with.

At some point in time, the average person is not going to listen to those chicken littles who have money in the bank and own property outright without a mortgage, especially when the virus is shown to all be a lot less deadly then what you are suggesting.  Remember, not a week goes by where the models from the prior week is proved wrong. 

At that point, governors who refuse to open up will loose all political capital and no one will care anymore.  Their careers will be over.  You cant fight it forever, or even until August.  People are going to go out and back to work. 

A growing fringe is calling for civil disobedience and sooner, then later, it will come into the mainstream. 

[JoeKitchen]

No, laminates look cheap: I print my own. Colours look whorish on cards, like something they used to stick in public 'phone boxes.

:-)

But have you started wearing a peacock feather in your hat yet? 

[armand]

....
Just to add to Armand's post, how long can you actually expect people to listen to medical experts who's models are shown to be wrong week after week after week after week after ... you get the point.

Wrong about what? There has been a very consistent message in February, at least 1.5 months before the administration accepted it. The message has been consistent on what's the best way to contain it.
Some say that we should look at other countries and see what they are doing well. It doesn't matter what they do, we knew for a while, Trump knows best and he'll go by his hunches or whatever before he listens to actual advice.

The models are adjusted based on the response and in the end it's statistics that's at play here. If you throw something from a plane yet you have wind gusts it won't land where you initially planned. However if you have the time, and the direction/speed of the wind gust, your prediction will be more accurate after each. That's just an example I came up with right now so not ideal. And while those experts that design the models might come from a medical filed, they could very well be just statisticians. Modern statistics is one of the hardest things to fully grasp.

[chez]

At some point in time, the average person is not going to listen to those chicken littles who have money in the bank and own property outright without a mortgage, especially when the virus is shown to all be a lot less deadly then what you are suggesting.  Remember, not a week goes by where the models from the prior week is proved wrong. 

At that point, governors who refuse to open up will loose all political capital and no one will care anymore.  Their careers will be over.  You cant fight it forever, or even until August.  People are going to go out and back to work. 

A growing fringe is calling for civil disobedience and sooner, then later, it will come into the mainstream.

And yet 10,000 have fallen dead this last week. Yeh...we are ready to open up.

[JoeKitchen]

Wrong about what? There has been a very consistent message in February, at least 1.5 months before the administration accepted it. The message has been consistent on what's the best way to contain it.
Some say that we should look at other countries and see what they are doing well. It doesn't matter what they do, we knew for a while, Trump knows best and he'll go by his hunches or whatever before he listens to actual advice.

The models are adjusted based on the response and in the end it's statistics that's at play here. If you throw something from a plane yet you have wind gusts it won't land where you initially planned. However if you have the time, and the direction/speed of the wind gust, your prediction will be more accurate after each. That's just an example I came up with right now so not ideal. And while those experts that design the models might come from a medical filed, they could very well be just statisticians. Modern statistics is one of the hardest things to fully grasp.

The  numbers keep on coming down every week.  Aside from the initial 2.2M estimate, every model has taken into account  our measures, yet they keep on going down and down, showing the experts really dont know enough to make any kind of predictions. 

But anyway, since we keep on adjusting our models constantly, week after, don't you think it would be best to adjust our prescription too?  Especially since everyone is starting to loose faith in it, and petty tyrants seems to be on the rise?   We are still working off of the 2.2M prediction, yet it have been revised down 5 times so far, at least.  I've lost count how many times the models have been wrong.

[JoeKitchen]

And yet 10,000 have fallen dead this last week. Yeh...we are ready to open up.

In a week?  In just the USA?  About 15K people die in two days in the USA. 

Life is about perspective. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... The message has been consistent on what's the best way to contain it...

Experts’ message?

That message doesn’t need experts. Any five-year old with learning difficulties could have come up with the same message: impose a 24/7 lockdown for a year, and voila!... no spread.

[chez]

In a week?  In just the USA?  About 15K people die in two days in the USA. 

Life is about perspective.

Right...so who gives a rat ass about the 50k lost in Vietnam...that's what 1 week of death. Who gives a fuck about the 2500 people that lost their lives in 911...that's what a few hours. Why the hell do we spend billions on cancer research...the 600,000 people that die from cancer is only what a few months worth of death. Why do we even care?

Life is about perspective.

[JoeKitchen]

Right...so who gives a rat ass about the 50k lost in Vietnam...that's what 1 week of death. Who gives a fuck about the 2500 people that lost their lives in 911...that's what a few hours. Why the hell do we spend billions on cancer research...the 600,000 people that die from cancer is only what a few months worth of death. Why do we even care?

Life is about perspective.

You ever read The Stranger by Albert Camus?  If so, do you remember his (the Stranger's) thoughts while waiting in prison awaiting his execution?  Well let's say that is one of my defining lessons on death. 

Who cares if 50K die in Vietnam when it comes to USA policy?  They dont have a world class healthcare system like we do, and are not effected whether or not we close down or open up.  2500 people on 911, give me a break.  They died from an enemy attack.  600K from cancer?  Well we could stop cancer in its tracks by reducing a whole host of practices (certain chemical production, farming practices, fossil fuel use, etc.), but we dont.  So dont cry to me about a few 10Ks of deaths. 

if this were still looking like 2.2M, I would be on board.  However to kill the USA economy over 50K deaths in a few months, of which only we have experienced 20K? 

Like I said before on this website, I am very logical when looking at everything.  With the exception of my wife's death, after the fact, dont expect me to give into my emotions. 

I am a libertarian through and through, have never understood how people can allow emotions to effect their logic, and wont care to now. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Yes...some of us do have morals. Others...not so much. Always worried about the big buck...tops everything.

This is a stupid argument. Big bucks are going to be ok, plenty to go around, and enough to afford to lose some.

It is the small bucks that are suffering. Minimum wage, out of job, people living from paycheck to paycheck. Small business owners living off tiny margins. Mom & pop stores. When that minimum wage becomes zero wage, when that paycheck is gone, when the store closes, those people are going to suffer the most. That’s the economy too, not just big, “evil” corporations.

[JoeKitchen]

This is a stupid argument. Big bucks are going to be ok, plenty to go around, and enough to afford to lose some.

It is the small bucks that are suffering. Minimum wage, out of job, people living from paycheck to paycheck. Small business owners living off tiny margins. Mom & pop stores. When that minimum wage becomes zero wage, when that paycheck is gone, when the store closes, those people are going to suffer the most. That’s the economy too, not just big, “evil” corporations.

Exactly! 

It seems so many of those with cushy jobs, money still flowing in and/or their houses long paid off, keep on saying dont think about the little things like not being thrown onto the street or not being able to eat. 

Give me a break.  Those people don't know their ass from a hole in the ground when it comes to relating to the average person.  Even liberal friends and assistants of mine I know are at their ropes' end. 

If the case mortality rate was at 20% I'd see the argument, but 3% with actual mortaility at only 4 times the flu (from German studies).  No, not anymore. 

[chez]

You ever read The Stranger by Albert Camus?  If so, do you remember his thoughts while waiting in prison awaiting his execution?  Well let's say that is one of my defining lessons on death. 

Who cares if 50K die in Vietnam when it comes to USA policy?  They dont have a world class healthcare system like we do, and are not effected whether or not we close down or open up.  2500 people on 911, give me a break.  They died from an enemy attack.  600K from cancer?  Well we could stop cancer in its tracks by reducing a whole host of practices (certain chemical production, farming practices, fossil fuel use, etc.), but we dont.  So dont cry to me about a few 10Ks of deaths. 

if this were still looking like 2.2M, I would be on board.  However to kill the USA economy over 50K deaths in a few months, of which only we have experienced 20K? 

Like I said before on this website, I am very logical when looking at everything.  With the exception of my wife's death, after the fact, dont expect me to give into my emotions. 

I am a libertarian through and through, have never understood how people can allow emotions to effect their logic, and wont give a rat's ass now.

But do you understand that the measures in place have saved lives. Don't know how many...but let's play some numbers.

USA population is roughly 330M

Let's say we just let the virus run havoc and infect 1/2 the population is a couple months. Ok so we have 165M infected.

So using some numbers from what we have today. 5% of people infected need hospital care. So that's roughly 8 million people need to be hospitalized in a 2 month period. That is total chaos as the medical system cannot handle that influx.

Ok...let's say 1% of people that get infected will die...that's 1.65M deaths in 2 months. Or roughly 25,000 people a day.

So the measures to stay at home and keep your distance were put in place to reduce this chaos to a somewhat manageable ( if that is what you can call the NY situation ) case. Without these measures we'd be in a big shit storm right now.

[chez]

This is a stupid argument. Big bucks are going to be ok, plenty to go around, and enough to afford to lose some.

It is the small bucks that are suffering. Minimum wage, out of job, people living from paycheck to paycheck. Small business owners living off tiny margins. Mom & pop stores. When that minimum wage becomes zero wage, when that paycheck is gone, when the store closes, those people are going to suffer the most. That’s the economy too, not just big, “evil” corporations.

Right...and how much do people suffer when they slowly die with a tube stuck down their throat, hands tied down so they can't yank the hose out, and totally on their own with relatives not allowed to sit by as you die.
Tell me, would you rather be the owner of a pizza shop out of business for a few months or would you rather be that person lying in the hospital with a tube down your throat?

[JoeKitchen]

But do you understand that the measures in place have saved lives. Don't know how many...but let's play some numbers.

USA population is roughly 330M

Let's say we just let the virus run havoc and infect 1/2 the population is a couple months. Ok so we have 165M infected.

So using some numbers from what we have today. 5% of people infected need hospital care. So that's roughly 8 million people need to be hospitalized in a 2 month period. That is total chaos as the medical system cannot handle that influx.

Ok...let's say 1% of people that get infected will die...that's 1.65M deaths in 2 months. Or roughly 25,000 people a day.

So the measures to stay at home and keep your distance were put in place to reduce this chaos to a somewhat manageable ( if that is what you can call the NY situation ) case. Without these measures we'd be in a big shit storm right now.

Has it happened yet?  Have any models shown that?  The most draconian model, the Imperial College model, said that 2.2M would die if we did nothing.  That is our high water mark and it keeps on going down and down and down.  Every week it goes down, without question.   

We could be hit by a asteroid tomorrow and half of life on earth could be killed.  Does that mean we should start borrowing underground so as to survive? 

Until you start showing me concrete proof that can not be refuted, you lost me. 

2nd, no way would half the country be infected in the amount of time you project.  Heard immunity would start to drastically slow down the spread long before that happens, especially in some areas where separation between neighbors is measured in miles, not feet. 

[chez]

Has it happened yet?  Have any models shown that?  The most draconian model, the Imperial College model, said that 2.2M would die if we did nothing.  That is our high water mark and it keeps on going down and down and down.  Every week it goes down, without question.   

We could be hit by a asteroid tomorrow and half of life on earth could be killed.  Does that mean we should start borrowing underground so as to survive? 

Until you start showing me concrete proof that can not be refuted, you lost me. 

2nd, no way would half the country be infected in the amount of time you project.  Heard immunity would start to drastically slow down the spread long before that happens, especially in some areas where separation between neighbors is measured in miles, not feet.

But the models all assume a certain level of distancing and isolation are taking place.

Oh...you are an expert on this herd immunity? You know you have to firstly get infected to get immune...and that 1% of those infected still would die...so tell me how your view of herd immunity will reduce those numbers?

[JoeKitchen]

The fact is that we do not have enough data to concretely predict anything, and the more data we get, the better off this situation looks.  It seems to me the major problem is the scientists and experts dont have the humility to admit that they have been wrong, even while continuing to be obviously wrong.

Science is not a concrete method.  The scientific method needs concrete and accurate data, which we have not been getting due to the coverups in China.  Therefore, the experts can not predict the future to a significantly better degree then anyone else.  All of this could be for not, and no one can really give an answer whether it is or not. 

[JoeKitchen]

But the models all assume a certain level of distancing and isolation are taking place.

Oh...you are an expert on this herd immunity? You know you have to firstly get infected to get immune...and that 1% of those infected still would die...so tell me how your view of herd immunity will reduce those numbers?

Aside form the first one, the 2.2M prediction.  Then every one after did and what happened?

We went from 500K, then to 150K to 250K, then to 100K to 200K, then to 80K, then to 60K. 

It's all becoming a joke.  Every week it keeps on going down yet we insist on the same measures as when we thought it would be 2.2M?  That makes no sense. 

As conditions change, you change your strategy. 

BTW, studies are starting to show fatality is much lower amongst those young and healthy.  At 0.1%, I'd surely take the risk then sitting in my house earning no income waiting to default on my mortgage or starve due to lack of food, like many people are already looking at. 

It's amazing, liberals talk as if they care about the poor, but they'd rather see them living on the street because they think they know better.