COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Klein]

Basically anyone who tests positive in Canada needs to be quarantined. That's just smart. Here in BC there is also contact tracing and all contacts are asked to self quarantine.

only one in ten Canadians have been tested.  What about the other 90%? 

[hogloff]

only one in ten Canadians have been tested.  What about the other 90%?

I believe testing gets extensive in areas where there are outbreaks. Contact tracing and isolation is key. As of today I believe BC only has 195 deaths from Covid.

I was sick back in April and was tested. Result was back in less than 24 hours. That turn around is key for tracing.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Right now, here in central New Jersey, the tropical storm Isaias is starting to hit.  Some things, you have to batten down the hatches and ride it out.  There's not much you can do.  There is no exact answer that will cure the problem. Covid 19 is like that.  It's a terrible plague that is hurting us medically and economically as well as socially and politically.  Whatever we do will not eliminate the disastrous effects.  Insisting you know the correct plan to conquer it is a fool's errand.

As mentioned so many times before, but still you refuse to accept: many countries have taken effective and timely mitigating measures against economic and health consequences. Your approach is typical:

1. You ask a question or raise a subject.
2.People here reply with concrete measures that have been proved to be effective, not 100%, but better than doing nothing.
3. Then you come back and reply that there is nothing we can do and whatever is being done is not effective.

Pointless to discuss with you.

[Paulo Bizarro]

So you can ask yourself ; why don't they do it for everybody...:
too much work- not enough manhours
too much costs... i believe 150 € a test
not enough testkits ...
then it provides only a valid answer for a very limited time. So a very costly operation.
It could help if you could do a test of every citizen at one time and then put the positives in quarantaine.
They did that in China i believe.

Then priorities need to be decided in the sectors that are critical for health care and economy. In Portugal we are doubling up on daily testing capacity to be ready for Autumn and Winter. When students go back to school for example, they will be tested for the virus. Regional serological testing campaigns have also started, to estimate exposure to the virus while not presenting symptoms.

This has been done in several regions for hospital staff and caring homes staff, for example.

[Paulo Bizarro]

only one in ten Canadians have been tested.  What about the other 90%?

Testing policy changes between countries. If Canada is the same as Portugal, the people that get tested need to fill some criteria: show symptoms, contact with positive cases, preventive testing for some professions.

Each country should have such criteria pretty well established by now.

[faberryman]

only one in ten Canadians have been tested.  What about the other 90%?

They haven't been tested.

[Alan Klein]

So you don't know who of 90% of the people are carriers.

[LesPalenik]

So you don't know who of 90% of the people are carriers.

There is no infection risk, if you keep at a safe distance even from untested individuals. There is no need to come into a close contact with most strangers.
The last time I got really close to someone was when I visited my dentist.

[faberryman]

So you don't know who of 90% of the people are carriers.

Not only that, but 90% or more of those 10% who were tested, tested negative, but subsequently may have become infected. So really you don't know who of the 99% of the population are carriers. Let's all throw our hands up in the air and run around in circles, which is where I think you were headed with your line of questioning.

[Jeremy Roussak]

I don't think the testing situation is this bleak.  Every day I see new approaches to testing that have very high specificity and sensitivity.  The difficulty is getting some of these rolled out at commercial scale.  Serology tests are complicated in that some recovered SARS-CoV-2 infected patients, particularly younger ones, do not mount a major antibody response and hence test negative.

Your last sentence rather makes my point. If post-infection immunity (assuming that it exists at all, or persists for any great period) is mediated by T cells rather than by circulating antibodies, serology testing becomes pretty much useless.

Jeremy

[Alan Goldhammer]

Your last sentence rather makes my point. If post-infection immunity (assuming that it exists at all, or persists for any great period) is mediated by T cells rather than by circulating antibodies, serology testing becomes pretty much useless.

Jeremy

No disagreement.  I think the gene PCR tests are very accurate.  Still the antibody tests do have a purpose, and can give a broad population overview of infection rate. 

[BobShaw]

The test numbers for the US seem to be as high as almost anywhere in the world. I doubt that a lack of testing or imperfect testing is an issue.
No test is perfect, whether it is a Cover Test test, or a pregnancy test or content of alcohol test. That is why they test again.

The issue seems to be that if someone tests positive they need to be isolated for say 14 days. When that happens the infection rate always goes down. You can't catch the disease unless you come in contact with someone who has it.

[hogloff]

The test numbers for the US seem to be as high as almost anywhere in the world. I doubt that a lack of testing or imperfect testing is an issue.
No test is perfect, whether it is a Cover Test test, or a pregnancy test or content of alcohol test. That is why they test again.

The issue seems to be that if someone tests positive they need to be isolated for say 14 days. When that happens the infection rate always goes down. You can't catch the disease unless you come in contact with someone who has it.

I've been hearing test results in some areas take more than a week to get back. Taking that long results in any kind of tracing to be useless. Without tracing and dealing with all the contacts...you have no control.

[Jeremy Roussak]

No disagreement.  I think the gene PCR tests are very accurate.  Still the antibody tests do have a purpose, and can give a broad population overview of infection rate.

Their results are a reasonably accurate reflection of gene content in the sample provided, yes. The problem is getting a decent sample. The procedure, if carried out properly, is really rather unpleasant. The likelihood of many people getting adequate samples by swabbing themselves is small.

Jeremy

[Alan Goldhammer]

Their results are a reasonably accurate reflection of gene content in the sample provided, yes. The problem is getting a decent sample. The procedure, if carried out properly, is really rather unpleasant. The likelihood of many people getting adequate samples by swabbing themselves is small.

Jeremy

I've seen a number of papers that seem to counter what you say above regarding self collection.  Lots of work on this in both Germany and the US.  Saliva testing also appears to be a good approach for collection.

[Alan Klein]

I did one of those DNA heritage tests.  They mail you this little test tube that you spit into a little, seal the tube, and mail back in the pre-addressed and postage paid envelope.  It took two weeks or so to get the results.  But that could be expedited in the case of Covid. 

[Alan Klein]

Survival from Covid is improving.

"In California, 3.6% of people diagnosed with COVID-19 between March and May died of the disease. Among those diagnosed between June 1 and Aug. 3, that figure dropped to 1.2%, according to a Times analysis of state data. Expanded testing, changing patient demographics and better patient care all played a role in that drop, experts say."
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19-coronavirus-survival-rate-improves

[EricV]

This article does not understand or explain the statistics properly.  For example, it says

The statistic is what epidemiologists call the case-fatality rate: the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. This measures how deadly the disease is once people catch it — the chance of surviving.

Those two statements are not consistent.  Statistical reasoning left to the reader ...

[LesPalenik]

Expanded testing, changing patient demographics and better patient care all played a role in that drop, experts say.

All these factors are quite logical, you don't need to be an epidemiologist to come to a such conclusion. You could add also the high temperatures in this summer season and more physical distancing during the outdoor activities. Combined, these factors contribute indeed to lower death rates. In any country, under any system.

On the other hand, inviting 250,000 visitors to the Sturgis motorcycle rally is anything but logical. I wonder how many infections and deaths will results from this event.

[Alan Klein]

All these factors are quite logical, you don't need to be an epidemiologist to come to a such conclusion. You could add also the high temperatures in this summer season and more physical distancing during the outdoor activities. Combined, these factors contribute indeed to lower death rates. In any country, under any system.

On the other hand, inviting 250,000 visitors to the Sturgis motorcycle rally is anything but logical. I wonder how many infections and deaths will results from this event.

The point of my post was that in California, the death rate went down 2/3rds during  June and July compared to March through May.  So we're getting better at treating it.  (Also older people are being protected better from getting it in the first place.)