Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?

[kers]

All we need now is a wide spread internet virus and the world stops turning...

[Rob C]

All we need now is a wide spread internet virus and the world stops turning...

And reverts to a time when my F3 becomes useful again?

I still have a few packs of Kodachrome 64 Pro in the freezer - and some 120 Velvia 50, too... always knew I shouldn't have sold those two 500 Series 'blads.

;-(

[armand]

I watched Trump say what he said about April LIVE, I don't need to false media spin to know.  You should consider doing the same so you don't look so uninformed. But yes this discussion with you has ended.  I won't abide those of you can't be bothered to actually go the the prime source to get information.

Best wishes for your safety.

You watched everything he says? What makes you think he only spoke once, or only tweeted once?
It's amazing how desperate some become to be right and hang on a single issue and ignore the rest. Trump might get a bad publicity when is not at fault but he hardly is faultless.

As I said before, I don't want this a political discussion now. You can argue all you want but we are in for some hard times.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

All we need now is a wide spread internet virus and the world stops turning...

A mask is key:

[armand]

I have a sore throat, dry cough, and mild fever. Four days since the onset of the first, very mild symptoms (tingling in the throat).

This is an example of how the virus spreads so easily, not that you have it.
You might have only have a common cold. Problem is what do you do because you don't know for sure. You assess your risk and pretest probability. There are already cases in Florida. If you know you have been exposed to one, you should get tested and avoid contact with others. If you can't get tested then you should self quarantine for 14 days. But I don't want to miss work for nothing! A valid point, but if you are infected you are already spreading the virus. Honestly I think we are beyond the point when we can do individual isolation to who has been exposed to known individuals, particularly because you are infectious when you are still asymptomatic. If your work is not essential or even better, can be done for home, you should do so.
What I mentioned about testing is probably not feasible because you are probably a lower risk unless you were in contact with people traveling from Europe recently and we don't have enough testing.

If you get sicker than you should go to the hospital.

[armand]

A mask is key:

I like those from tanga underwear, bras and such.

[armand]

Apparently, because the UK is not in the Schengen zone which allows totally free movement of people between countries.

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=i_1pXr_0M4SXlwSO-ZuoAg&q=schengen+zone+countries&oq=shengen+zone&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0i10l10.1129.4031..7393...0.0..0.85.811.12......0....1..gws-wiz.......0.Vw7ovj46DGU

Rob

Now I know why the UK custom officers were assholes when I visited, twice in a week, at least an alternative explanation. My wife said she's not coming back, and she only tasted the poisoned fruit once. I think I got over it 2 years later.

It still makes no sense if you want to stop the virus for coming more here.

[faberryman]

Was it stated why he excluded the UK?

Trump has three resorts in the UK and none in Europe.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Trump has three resorts in the UK and none in Europe.

This is getting tiring. First you make a dig at Trump for being a fascist (and our good moderator confused that for humor) and now this. It ain't funny.

[armand]

I was pleased to see that Trump is going to throttle visits from Europeans, since that seems to be where there's a growing threat. By suppressing the numbers of incoming visitors, some of whom presumably would carry the virus, we may not reduce the absolute number of Americans who ultimately become infected, but we are more likely to slow the rate of infection and spread it over time. That's critical because the U.S. does not have the hospital coverage to care for a rapid rise in infections, especially since we are also currently dealing with a fairly bad flu season, which requires some of the same hospital space and equipment needed to fight COVID-19. If we can spread the infection's time line, we can assure that a higher percentage of critical cases will get hospital care.

I remain somewhat appalled by the hospital situation. A University of Minnesota public health expert said this:

"Right now, today, in Minneapolis-St. Paul, every one of the beds that we use for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), a high-level machine that supports the heart and lungs and is critical for keeping people alive who have illness like COVID-19, are filled. This is in part because we are just coming off a moderate to severe flu season and that has really stretched our care capacity. On top of that, a number of hospitals throughout the country have only 5 to 10 days' worth of personal protective equipment (PPE) available for health care workers. They don't know when over-stretched PPE manufacturers will be able to deliver more."

Minneapolis St. Paul, with the University hospitals, two large public medical centers, a large VA hospital numerous private hospitals, and the Mayo Clinic in Rochester just to the south of the Cities, has some of the best per-capita health care in the nation, and this guy is saying that with a big outbreak, the Twin Cities would be in serious trouble.

I really don't like the fact that this discussion of the virus has swerved into political debate, although I agree that things would be better with a different President (of any reasonable political philosophy, left or right) or at least one who kept his mouth shut and stopped spreading incorrect information. But, what we've got is what we've got, and we simply have to keep encouraging a realistic approach to the infection.

I've been saying this for a while. People outside the hospital system don't realize how stretched we are in these resources. We can easily run out of ICU beds in the winter without any COVID-19, we won't be able to deal with hefty spikes in admissions. Protective equipment won't be in enough quantities, physicians and nurses will get infected. Where I work we have almost no reserve for somebody to get sick and not come to work, and it will happen.
The even larger quaternary referral centers are full on regular basis, I know University of Michigan is.
Please read those articles from Italy that were posted in the last few pages to give an idea how bad this could get.

[Alan Klein]

I don't know why you keep re-stating these stats. The new virus is only just at the start of its spread, of course the stats will be lower.

First I didn't repeat all the stats.  The one in China with 90k cases is recent.  And it seems, if they're telling the truth, that the cases are starting to decrease there.  So it doesn;t seem to be spreading as bad as the regular flu.  Let's hope so.  As an old fart with diabetes lung and heart problems, I'm in the target group for the most mortality if you get this disease.   

[Robert Roaldi]

This is getting tiring. First you make a dig at Trump for being a fascist (and our good moderator confused that for humor) and now this. It ain't funny.

Sorry. You may not like it, but it is funny,

[armand]

I have that all winter, every year.

At 8a.m. I was standing in the local clinic waiting to have a blood test. The entire waiting room was sniffling. Nobody, staff or patients was wearing a mask. Last I read, a couple in Sa Pobla, a few clicks away, has the virus.

I am old; have underlying health problems, heart being one of them - I was having the blood test to discover what else has been going wrong, because something sure is as the previous test indicated. Now, if it gets as bad here as in Italy, and I face triage, then I hope like hell they give the chance to use ventilators to some young person rather than any old person like me: we have lived a life, for better or for worse, and there is little left for the best of us to contribute.

In your case, as in mine, best of luck to us both!

Rob

Rob, that's an honorable point of view and I wish you best of luck. However not everybody thinks this way, in US even less.

[Alan Klein]

DOW down 1700 points.  NY Stock Exchange shut down.

[Alan Klein]

NY Stock Exchange reopens.  Down 1750 points. 

[John Camp]

My most amazing stock exchange number this morning: Exxon stock at the current dividend rate is yielding 9%.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

My most amazing stock exchange number this morning: Exxon stock at the current dividend rate is yielding 9%.

They might stop or pause paying dividends. Also, when the stock price recovers, the yield would go down.

[Alan Klein]

My most amazing stock exchange number this morning: Exxon stock at the current dividend rate is yielding 9%.

But with oil down to $30, and the economies in the world on a downswing, how long will that dividend last?

[Alan Klein]

They might stop or pause paying dividends. Also, when the stock price recovers, the yield would go down.

If it recovers.  You might get 9% now, but if the price goes down further after you bought it, the 9% won't look so good against a lower stock price. 
The current PE ratio for the S&P is reaching down to traditional ranges.  Still high though at 19-1.  Right now it's all a crap shoot.  But don;t listen to me.  I;ve always been a terrible investor.
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

[James Clark]

Just interrupting this thread to wish all of my friends here continued good health.  I know some of you gents (and ladies) are older - please stay safe and know that my best wishes are with you. Rob, Slobodan, Alan, Russ if you're around - Craig too?  you guys stay ok, ok?  I'd really miss arguing with you and seeing your pictures. (Not necessarily in that order .) And John - my wife and I look forward to your books each spring/fall.  You can't go anywhere either.