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Author Topic: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?  (Read 42383 times)

chez

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #280 on: March 08, 2020, 09:22:05 pm »

This is a very valid and real point. But obviously not obvious to some.

So true considering the regular seasonal flu overwhelms the medical system...adding new cases will spell disaster.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #281 on: March 08, 2020, 09:23:32 pm »

Fake news...fake news... But what about Fox?
Fox doesn't do news.  They're an opinion maker for the most part.  I'm talking about news from NY Times, Washington Post, NBC, CBS, ABC, who claim to be unbiased media. 

chez

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #282 on: March 08, 2020, 09:27:28 pm »

What is Canada doing that is better?

Last week British Columbia, a province in Canada, had more tests done than the entire USA.
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armand

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #283 on: March 08, 2020, 09:30:42 pm »

This circulates on the Internet. I don’t know how authentic or accurate it is.

That won't be possible, even if the initial numbers are true.
There are a total for about 5 mil ICU admissions/year, and at most 70-80k ICU beds. Many of those ICU beds are in lower intensity hospitals who don't deal with very sick people.

There is no way that in 2 months the US ICUs can accommodate 2 NEW millions admissions (vs 5 mil.year) in those 80K adult beds, many of which can't deal with the sicker patients.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #284 on: March 08, 2020, 09:31:31 pm »

This is a very valid and real point. But obviously not obvious to some.

What do you mean by that? Who are “some.”  And were it obvious to all, including the “some,” what difference would it make? No system is designed to withstand extreme levels of rare events, or black swans. No health or hospital system in the world can be designed with such spare capacity and redundancy.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #285 on: March 08, 2020, 09:34:28 pm »

Last week British Columbia, a province in Canada, had more tests done than the entire USA.

Source, brother?

P.S. could it be because BC has total population the size that can fit on a post stamp?

LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #286 on: March 08, 2020, 09:37:56 pm »

What is Canada doing that is better?

In 2003, we had in Canada the SARS virus outbreak that infected 375 people just in Toronto and killed 44.
Some of the lessons earned from that outbreak were the availability of the test kits and early detection of cases which allows for an individual’s contacts to be isolated more quickly, potentially limiting the virus’s spread.

As of today, Canada has 64 Covid-19 cases compared with 538 cases in USA. Hopefully, it won't get much worse.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #287 on: March 08, 2020, 09:41:50 pm »

... As of today, Canada has 64 Covid-19 cases compared with 538 cases in USA. Hopefully, it won't get much worse.

Of course, let’s not forget that the whole population of Canada can fit on Rhode Island alone.

LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #288 on: March 08, 2020, 09:42:41 pm »

What do you mean by that? Who are “some.”  And were it obvious to all, including the “some,” what difference would it make? No system is designed to withstand extreme levels of rare events, or black swans. No health or hospital system in the world can be designed with such spare capacity and redundancy.

Faced with such a situation, you have to throw everything you have at the problem. If you miss that initial chance to contain it, it could lead to much bigger problems. 
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #289 on: March 08, 2020, 09:45:37 pm »

Faced with such a situation, you have to throw everything you have at the problem. If you miss that initial chance to contain it, it could lead to much bigger problems. 

That’s just an empty slogan.

Nothing you can do can fully prepare you for a black swan event.

LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #290 on: March 08, 2020, 09:49:31 pm »

Of course, let’s not forget that the whole population of Canada can fit on Rhode Island alone.
maybe all the covid-19 virus cells from Canada could fit on Rhode Island, but not all the people

the map below illustrates the geographical virus distribution and how it was tested
 
https://maphub.net/outbreakcc/canada-covid19-map
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Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #291 on: March 08, 2020, 09:54:40 pm »

In 2003, we had in Canada the SARS virus outbreak that infected 375 people just in Toronto and killed 44.
Some of the lessons earned from that outbreak were the availability of the test kits and early detection of cases which allows for an individual’s contacts to be isolated more quickly, potentially limiting the virus’s spread.

As of today, Canada has 64 Covid-19 cases compared with 538 cases in USA. Hopefully, it won't get much worse.
US population is 9 times Canada's so 64x9= 576 equivalent to US which had only 538.  That's very comparative.  But frankly, the numbers in both countries are too small, just a perturbation when compared to the 54,000,000 flu cases we had in a season a couple of years ago with 50,000 dead. This panic and comparative stuff is just political. It's no way to handle a viral epidemic or pandemic. 

chez

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #292 on: March 08, 2020, 09:56:18 pm »

Source, brother?

P.S. could it be because BC has total population the size that can fit on a post stamp?

Right...so why the hell is a population that can fit onto a postage stamp well ahead of the almighty USA in getting these test kits out and in use.
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chez

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #293 on: March 08, 2020, 09:57:15 pm »

That’s just an empty slogan.

Nothing you can do can fully prepare you for a black swan event.

That's exactly what the USA started out at doing...NOTHING>><>>
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chez

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #294 on: March 08, 2020, 09:58:37 pm »

US population is 9 times Canada's so 64x9= 576 equivalent to US which had only 538.  That's very comparative.  But frankly, the numbers in both countries are too small, just a perturbation when compared to the 54,000,000 flu cases we had in a season a couple of years ago with 50,000 dead. This panic and comparative stuff is just political. It's no way to handle a viral epidemic or pandemic.

Are they small in the USA because of ignorance...not many cases being tested. That's one way to keep it small...bury one's head in the sand with your butt sticking up.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #295 on: March 08, 2020, 10:04:20 pm »

maybe all the covid-19 virus cells from Canada could fit on Rhode Island, but not all the people

the map below illustrates the geographical virus distribution and how it was tested
 
https://maphub.net/outbreakcc/canada-covid19-map
Here's a map of US cases mostly confined to the  big cities.  There were a bunch on two cruise ships.  But I don;t know if those count as those people got the disease when the ships visited Japan and China. 

The big question for the US and around the world, will the disease spread throughout everyone's community and have to play out as there are no curatives?  The rest is just conversation.  I just noticed I live within the N in NJ label on the map.  It seems like I'm in a hot area.  So I'll retreat and hide under the sheets until this is over.  :)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #296 on: March 08, 2020, 10:07:16 pm »

Are they small in the USA because of ignorance...not many cases being tested. That's one way to keep it small...bury one's head in the sand with your butt sticking up.
It's election season. It must be Trump's fault. I get it.  Maybe if you guys didn't get everyone busy with the phony impeachment nonsense, the government could have been more efficient dealing with this. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #297 on: March 08, 2020, 10:12:07 pm »

US population is 9 times Canada's so 64x9= 576 equivalent to US which had only 538.  That's very comparative.  But frankly, the numbers in both countries are too small, just a perturbation when compared to the 54,000,000 flu cases we had in a season a couple of years ago with 50,000 dead. This panic and comparative stuff is just political. It's no way to handle a viral epidemic or pandemic.

True, the relative sizes of USA and Canada do correlate with the current infection numbers. And it's still too early to tell the future trajectories.

What we do know is that in 2003, Canada was not prepared for SARS and that caused the rapid spread. Also in case of Iran, initially they underestimated the problem and tried to cover it up, and now a country with 80 million of people has close to 7,000 infections.

Slobodan pointed out that "throwing every you have at the problem" is an empty slogan. On the contrary, it is the only way to defeat such a plague. Actually, after the initial bungling in Wuhan, Chinese recognized their initial insufficient response and now they are indeed throwing everything they have at the virus. And it seems to work.
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chez

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #298 on: March 08, 2020, 10:20:17 pm »

It's election season. It must be Trump's fault. I get it.  Maybe if you guys didn't get everyone busy with the phony impeachment nonsense, the government could have been more efficient dealing with this.

Why are you continually bringing in politics into this issue. It's not a political issue...it's a world wide problem.
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