Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?

[Alan Klein]

Political leaders are always positive about negative things giving hope to the people.  Of course, with Trump, the press turns it into a negative.  Bush gave the same positive cheers when he met construction workers in NYC right after 9-11 talking to the with a bullhorn.  No one thought he was ignoring the terrorist problem.  It's just politics.

[armand]

Political leaders are always positive about negative things giving hope to the people.  Of course, with Trump, the press turns it into a negative.  Bush gave the same positive cheers when he met construction workers in NYC right after 9-11 talking to the with a bullhorn.  No one thought he was ignoring the terrorist problem.  It's just politics.

It shouldn't, not for this.


Here is an article with several good points, even if not all. I know the "Trump can do no wrong" side hates NYT but try to look beyond to what the content is, it hits many of issues.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/opinion/trump-coronavirus-us.html


The first picture is of some scientists showing Trump a model of coronavirus and how it works; I fail to see that as anything more than useless publicity. First, I doubt he'll understand (most people won't) and second, who cares? His job should be to implement policies recommended by who deal with this on a daily basis, and get everybody on board with the implementation, not an initiation in virology.

[Alan Klein]

It shouldn't, not for this.


Here is an article with several good points, even if not all. I know the "Trump can do no wrong" side hates NYT but try to look beyond to what the content is, it hits many of issues.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/opinion/trump-coronavirus-us.html


The first picture is of some scientists showing Trump a model of coronavirus and how it works; I fail to see that as anything more than useless publicity. First, I doubt he'll understand (most people won't) and second, who cares? His job should be to implement policies recommended by who deal with this on a daily basis, and get everybody on board with the implementation, not an initiation in virology.

I think you're wrong.  Leaders of countries reassure the public when bad things happen.  When a president visits a disaster area  caused by a tornado or hurricane, no one is expecting him to operate a backhoe to clear the debris or suddenly understand how and why the area got flooded.  He's lending his political and executive authority to reassure the public that the government he's running is doing its job to help them and to protect them and will continue to help in the future.  Every leader does that including Obama, Bush, and presidents before them. 

Knocking Trump for visiting a laboratory is just a cheap shot.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Panic peddlers. Just like with climate change.

[armand]

You are both in denial. Trump was not optimistic after a disaster, but before, to stupidly save face although it wasn't his fault (the barking of the democrats didn't help either).
Things will get worse and we are not ready. The hospitals won't be able to cope. You can come back to what I'm saying now when all is said and done.

I just saw some testing requirements for COVID-19, because of fear that it will be aerosolized when testing the protective equipment needs to be quite different and you have to do it in a negative pressure room; I'll let you figure it out how many of these rooms the hospitals have. And this is just one example.

[Chris Kern]

The first picture is of some scientists showing Trump a model of coronavirus and how it works; I fail to see that as anything more than useless publicity. . . . His job should be to implement policies recommended by who deal with this on a daily basis, and get everybody on board with the implementation, not an initiation in virology.

I think you're wrong.  Leaders of countries reassure the public when bad things happen. . . . He's lending his political and executive authority to reassure the public that the government he's running is doing its job to help them and to protect them and will continue to help in the future.

Clearly the response to an international medical emergency must be determined by the experts.  Various U.S. federal agencies―the Departments of Health and Human Services (the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), Homeland Security (the Federal Emergency Management Agency), and Veterans Affairs (Veterans Health Administration, which operates hospitals for military veterans)―employ career government experts who, I suspect, are as capable as any in the world of responding to the public health threat associated with a new virus such as this one and they, in turn, have access to an enormous nationwide medical infrastructure as well as the very large number of private practitioners who inevitably will provide the treatment and report the outcomes of the vast majority of patients.

Having said that, coordination of a medical (or other) national emergency by a politically-designated White House representative can be useful, if that individual has sufficient experience at the federal level to know where to find the relevant agency resources―it's not always obvious to even the experts in various agencies what resources are available elsewhere in the government―and the clout to overcome bureaucratic obstacles to exploiting them.  Ron Klain, the chief-of-staff to former Vice President Joe Biden, performed this function when the Obama Administration was responding to the ebola virus, despite having no prior experience in public health, and by the time his assignment ended my impression is that his contribution was considered quite successful by the nonpartisan career experts.

Vice President Pence is probably less qualified than Klain for this kind of role, but in an Administration which is notably lacking in political appointees with experience at the federal level he probably is doing as well as any of the other possible candidates.  And, despite President Trump's sometimes preposterous and always politically-motivated comments about the federal response, Pence seems to be doing a reasonable job of explaining the expert opinion to the extent that he is able to understand it.  Whether he is able to use his influence to facilitate the federal response is anybody's guess.

[armand]

Clearly the response to an international medical emergency must be determined by the experts.  Various U.S. federal agencies―the Departments of Health and Human Services (the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), Homeland Security (the Federal Emergency Management Agency), and Veterans Affairs (Veterans Health Administration, which operates hospitals for military veterans)―employ career government experts who, I suspect, are as capable as any in the world of responding to the public health threat associated with a new virus such as this one and they, in turn, have access to an enormous nationwide medical infrastructure as well as the very large number of private practitioners who inevitably will provide the treatment and report the outcomes of the vast majority of patients.

Having said that, coordination of a medical (or other) national emergency by a politically-designated White House representative can be useful, if that individual has sufficient experience at the federal level to know where to find the relevant agency resources―it's not always obvious to even the experts in various agencies what resources are available elsewhere in the government―and the clout to overcome bureaucratic obstacles to exploiting them.  Ron Klain, the chief-of-staff to former Vice President Joe Biden, performed this function when the Obama Administration was responding to the ebola virus, despite having no prior experience in public health, and by the time his assignment ended my impression is that his contribution was considered quite successful by the nonpartisan career experts.

Vice President Pence is probably less qualified than Klain for this kind of role, but in an Administration which is notably lacking in political appointees with experience at the federal level he probably is doing as well as any of the other possible candidates.  And, despite President Trump's sometimes preposterous and always politically-motivated comments about the federal response, Pence seems to be doing a reasonable job of explaining the expert opinion to the extent that he is able to understand it.  Whether he is able to use his influence to facilitate the federal response is anybody's guess.

I think they are starting to realize what's ahead and taking some appropriate steps. But they were too slow in the beginning and now that time is not coming back. IF we are lucky this will reach the level of the flu (in number of persons infected) and although the mortality will be higher than the flu and the resources will be far stretched we might be able to cope, maybe. Beyond that I doubt it.
You also have to take into account the american population is different; although I have no hard data in hand right now I suspect our elder have more comorbidities than the average international citizen, therefore even more vulnerable to the virus.

[armand]

Knocking Trump for visiting a laboratory is just a cheap shot.

I have plenty, this is nothing. That's wasted time right there. He should visit the epidemiology and disaster management centers.
Maybe I'm biased by prior experiences, maybe other leaders do it too, but that doesn't make it right.

[faberryman]

Knocking Trump for visiting a laboratory is just a cheap shot.

I read the article linked to in the quote you were responding to and didn't see anything critical of Trump visiting a laboratory.

[John Camp]

although I have no hard data in hand right now I suspect our elder have more comorbidities than the average international citizen, therefore even more vulnerable to the virus.

I doubt that; a huge portion of the world's population is in places like China, India, Indonesia and Africa, where people indulge in habits that are seriously debilitating -- like smoking. India, China and Indonesia lead the world in smoking; more than 50% of Chinese males smoke. Only about 14 percent of American adults smoke. This is critical because it directly involves the lungs. The biggest problem in the US is obesity, and I'm not sure that the virus would attack overweight people much harder than it would others. The virus also seems to more seriously affect older people (as you note) and I think older people in these large but relatively poor countries have been through much harder times in their lives than the older American population. I was born in 1944 and by that time, there was decent medical treatment here, and good nutrition almost everywhere. I was not born into wealth, but I never went hungry or without medical care. I'm not sure you could say that about people who have gone through the upheavals we've had in China, India, Indonesia and many African countries.

[armand]

I doubt that; a huge portion of the world's population is in places like China, India, Indonesia and Africa, where people indulge in habits that are seriously debilitating -- like smoking. India, China and Indonesia lead the world in smoking; more than 50% of Chinese males smoke. Only about 14 percent of American adults smoke. This is critical because it directly involves the lungs. The biggest problem in the US is obesity, and I'm not sure that the virus would attack overweight people much harder than it would others. The virus also seems to more seriously affect older people (as you note) and I think older people in these large but relatively poor countries have been through much harder times in their lives than the older American population. I was born in 1944 and by that time, there was decent medical treatment here, and good nutrition almost everywhere. I was not born into wealth, but I never went hungry or without medical care. I'm not sure you could say that about people who have gone through the upheavals we've had in China, India, Indonesia and many African countries.

Those people die younger than here, they don't live to have that many medical problems.

Or in other words, the older patients with multiple comorbidities would be dead in other parts of the world. 

PS. I will admit I'm speculating on this, as I said I don't have hard data

[Alan Klein]

Clearly the response to an international medical emergency must be determined by the experts.  Various U.S. federal agencies―the Departments of Health and Human Services (the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), Homeland Security (the Federal Emergency Management Agency), and Veterans Affairs (Veterans Health Administration, which operates hospitals for military veterans)―employ career government experts who, I suspect, are as capable as any in the world of responding to the public health threat associated with a new virus such as this one and they, in turn, have access to an enormous nationwide medical infrastructure as well as the very large number of private practitioners who inevitably will provide the treatment and report the outcomes of the vast majority of patients.

Having said that, coordination of a medical (or other) national emergency by a politically-designated White House representative can be useful, if that individual has sufficient experience at the federal level to know where to find the relevant agency resources―it's not always obvious to even the experts in various agencies what resources are available elsewhere in the government―and the clout to overcome bureaucratic obstacles to exploiting them.  Ron Klain, the chief-of-staff to former Vice President Joe Biden, performed this function when the Obama Administration was responding to the ebola virus, despite having no prior experience in public health, and by the time his assignment ended my impression is that his contribution was considered quite successful by the nonpartisan career experts.

Vice President Pence is probably less qualified than Klain for this kind of role, but in an Administration which is notably lacking in political appointees with experience at the federal level he probably is doing as well as any of the other possible candidates.  And, despite President Trump's sometimes preposterous and always politically-motivated comments about the federal response, Pence seems to be doing a reasonable job of explaining the expert opinion to the extent that he is able to understand it.  Whether he is able to use his influence to facilitate the federal response is anybody's guess.

Regardless how it turns out, Democrats will say the administration failed terribly and the Republicans will say the administration worked a miracle. My own feeling about government in general is that it's inefficient, disorganized, costly, slow, and wasteful.  Frankly, your best bet is to keep your fingers crossed and just hope for the best.  Luck will probably be a better determinate of how things will turn out. 

[Rob C]

Panic peddlers. Just like with climate change.

Slobodan, you forgot the ;-) which puts your post in grave danger of being taken seriously.

Rob

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Slobodan, you forgot the ;-) which puts your post in grave danger of being taken seriously.

I was dead serious. Ok, maybe the wrong choice of words. Still alive. And washing my hands.

[Rob C]

I was dead serious. Ok, maybe the wrong choice of words. Still alive. And washing my hands.

Keep on washing them; even Pontius Pilate kept on doing that.

;-)

[Alan Goldhammer]

I'm quite pissed off this administration because they tried to make it about them first. And god forbid that the people who know what they talk about say something that goes against the supreme leader, while some democrats were trying to spin this for political gain.

I watch the daily briefings of the White House Task Force that is led by Vice President Pence.  Almost every briefing starts with how President Trump has made things better.  I understand why Pence has to say this (IMO, I think he gets dropped from the ticket in favor of Nikki Haley) but it's a total joke.  If the President wants to take credit for these things he also has to take major blame for the huge screw up by CDC in terms of lack of test kits.  The point is that neither of these are attributable to Trump, though the case can be made that the Administration erred in getting rid of the Task Force on pandemic diseases that Obama created.

[Alan Goldhammer]

I just saw some testing requirements for COVID-19, because of fear that it will be aerosolized when testing the protective equipment needs to be quite different and you have to do it in a negative pressure room; I'll let you figure it out how many of these rooms the hospitals have. And this is just one example.

?  The test is a RT-PCR test done on nasal or throat swabs.  Once the swab is taken there is no chance of aerosolation at all. 

[Alan Goldhammer]

I doubt that; a huge portion of the world's population is in places like China, India, Indonesia and Africa, where people indulge in habits that are seriously debilitating -- like smoking. India, China and Indonesia lead the world in smoking; more than 50% of Chinese males smoke. Only about 14 percent of American adults smoke. This is critical because it directly involves the lungs.

This is why I refuse to panic (other than increasing hand washing).  Wide spread testing and routine epidemiology will answer so many outstanding questions including the linkage to smoking and coronavirus infection.  Even in developing countries the number of women smokers is much lower than men.  I don't recall if the Chinese data broke things out by sex.

[armand]

?  The test is a RT-PCR test done on nasal or throat swabs.  Once the swab is taken there is no chance of aerosolation at all.

I happen to know more about this than you assume.
These are the internal guidelines of a very large health system. It's valid mostly for procedures that can produce aerosols (intubation/extubation, bronchoscopies, suctioning,etc) but I think they are concerned that even the regular swabs can lead to it, when you do it, therefore the requirements for N95 and other protective equipment and negative pressure rooms. I suspect the negative pressure rooms for swabs are overkill but these are the current guidelines.

[faberryman]

Trump reassures the nation:

“It came out of China, I heard about it, and we made a good move: We closed it down. We stopped it.”

Meanwhile, in other news, nearly 70 new cases were reported on Thursday.