Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?

[Robert Roaldi]

Sorry Democrats.  It didn't work.

What didn't work, you lost me?

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

What didn't work, you lost me?

Yet another coup attempt.

[John Camp]

I never said the illness was not real.  What I'm saying is that it's being overblown here in the States because it's election season.  The anti-Trumpers are trying to make Trump responsible for the disease and deaths.  They're trying to scare everyone to help the markets sink hurting Trump's economic success record, his key argument for a second term.  Anyone who's paying attention, or isn;t anti-Trump themselves,  sees that right away.

Try to get a grip, man. It's somewhat possible that not much will happen here. It's also possible that if it sweeps the country like flu, something like 2 million people could die. Right now, the mortality rate is looking like something around 2%, and much higher than that in people your age, possibly as high as 8%. There are more than 300 million people in the U.S. If everybody got it -- unlikely -- that would be something more than 6 million dead people. This is not some silly-ass pro-Trump anti-Trump gag, this is real world stuff.

Edit: 4 more dead in Washington State.   

[armand]

Virological classifications were done based on the shape of the virus as gathered and as I noted imprecise.  This is really not a debate worth having unless you are a virologist.

??
Try me, I might know a thing or two about this viral/medical business.

So far the only thing I got from you is that you don't think the current identification is accurate and the COVID-19 is actually a coronavirus, which is a fair point if you have some inside info on how accurate the initial ID is.

As for the coronavirus family what I wrote stands.

[LesPalenik]

What didn't work, you lost me?

I think he meant that the virus containment didn't work as Trump promised. But that's hardly Democrat's fault.

[Alan Klein]

Yet another coup attempt.

Be patient.  They haven't caught up yet.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

...There are more than 300 million people in the U.S. If everybody got it -- unlikely -- that would be something more than 6 million dead people. This is not some silly-ass pro-Trump anti-Trump gag, this is real world stuff... 

This is some silly-ass calc, even if you qualified it as unlikely. The higher mortality rate, the less widespread it is. So, it is either or. Either 300 million get infected, but with a much lower mortality rate, or much less people get infected, but with a higher mortality rate. Either way, 6 million is just Democrats' wet dream.

[Alan Klein]

Try to get a grip, man. It's somewhat possible that not much will happen here. It's also possible that if it sweeps the country like flu, something like 2 million people could die. Right now, the mortality rate is looking like something around 2%, and much higher than that in people your age, possibly as high as 8%. There are more than 300 million people in the U.S. If everybody got it -- unlikely -- that would be something more than 6 million dead people. This is not some silly-ass pro-Trump anti-Trump gag, this is real world stuff.

Edit: 4 more dead in Washington State.   

Interestly it may backfire on the Democrats.  By overplaying their hand, trying to make Trump culpable and making it seem like he's not doing his job, they pushed him into a corner.  So he now has all hands on deck.  He'll command the cable airways every day now, getting free campaign ads in the form of VP Pence and the virus control team working really hard to contain it.  The airwaves show him meeting with the pharmaceutical industry commending their actions to work hard for the American people.  All this will help Trump in the election as a man of action protecting the country against disease as well as a man of economic and market genius.  The Dems still haven't learned that when you hit Trump once, he hits back twice as hard. 

[Manoli]

There are more than 300 million people in the U.S. If everybody got it -- unlikely -- that would be something more than 6 million dead people. This is not some silly-ass pro-Trump anti-Trump gag, this is real world stuff.

<<
We calculated with an enormous amount of uncertainty that 1% of those infected might die — with a fourfold margin of error in each direction.  So a death rate of 0.25% of cases would be similar to the 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics [both estimated to have killed at least one million people] while a 4% rate would compare with the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic [with a death toll estimated at 40 million to 50 million].
>>
Medical faculty, Imperial College London

[Manoli]

One of the most difficult things about this coronavirus is that people can be infected and have no symptoms at all. It doesn’t present like a common cold and the symptoms can range from completely unapparent to serious disease to going into intensive care.

Generally, you might feel a cough and discomfort around the chest rather than the symptoms of a cold, sometimes accompanied by gastrointestinal discomfort, such as diarrhoea. It makes it so hard to control when there isn’t a definite disease syndrome associated with being infectious. It’s clear that you don’t have to be very symptomatic to pass this on.

From what we have learnt so far, it seems that virus shedding — the transmission stage from infected persons — is going on relatively early during the course of infection. Within a few days of presentation to hospital, tests can quite often become negative — suggesting the virus has gone — but then sometimes go positive again. Whether you can catch the virus more than once is still one of the great unknowns.

One aspect we have noticed from the Chinese data is that so far only 2% of cases are affecting people under the age of 19. In Japan they have closed the schools, which might help if the disease is being sustained by person-to-person transmission among children. With this virus, we do not know that is the case.

In any event, viruses of this kind tend to be susceptible to heat and sunlight. The more we can delay the outbreak until the weather warms up and it’s summer, the more it will blunt the peak and the easier it will be for healthcare services to cope — even if the numbers rebound once autumn is with us.

Dr Peter Openshaw, Professor of Experimental Medicine, Imperial College London

[Robert Roaldi]

Interestly it may backfire on the Democrats....

You might be obsessing, just sayin'.

[Alan Klein]

Quote
One of the most difficult things about this coronavirus is that people can be infected and have no symptoms at all. It doesn’t present like a common cold and the symptoms can range from completely unapparent to serious disease to going into intensive care.

Generally, you might feel a cough and discomfort around the chest rather than the symptoms of a cold, sometimes accompanied by gastrointestinal discomfort, such as diarrhoea. It makes it so hard to control when there isn’t a definite disease syndrome associated with being infectious. It’s clear that you don’t have to be very symptomatic to pass this on.

From what we have learnt so far, it seems that virus shedding — the transmission stage from infected persons — is going on relatively early during the course of infection. Within a few days of presentation to hospital, tests can quite often become negative — suggesting the virus has gone — but then sometimes go positive again. Whether you can catch the virus more than once is still one of the great unknowns.

One aspect we have noticed from the Chinese data is that so far only 2% of cases are affecting people under the age of 19. In Japan they have closed the schools, which might help if the disease is being sustained by person-to-person transmission among children. With this virus, we do not know that is the case.

In any event, viruses of this kind tend to be susceptible to heat and sunlight. The more we can delay the outbreak until the weather warms up and it’s summer, the more it will blunt the peak and the easier it will be for healthcare services to cope — even if the numbers rebound once autumn is with us.

Dr Peter Openshaw, Professor of Experimental Medicine, Imperial College London

So if there are no symptoms, and the person doesn;t die, what does it matter? 

So when it warms up, the disease might be killed.  That's what Dr. Trump said that the disease will be gone in the Spring when it warms up. 

[Alan Klein]

You might be obsessing, just sayin'.

...about what?

[Jeremy Roussak]

So if there are no symptoms, and the person doesn;t die, what does it matter? 

1. Because the infected person is potentially shedding virus, infecting others who might not be so lucky.

2. Please learn the difference between a semi-colon and an apostrophe. It's a recurrent feature of your posts. The fact that they're on adjacent keys doesn't make them equivaleny. Sorry, equivalent.

Jeremy

[Rob C]

But hey, listen, there's always a bright side to coronas. They used to say: change the name and not the letter, change for worse and not for better. That was in the good old days of marriages etc. when folks knew what was what and who was who or what.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFCXd9NanLY

Think positively!

Rob

[Alan Goldhammer]

For those interested, here is the most current WHO thinking:  https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

[Alan Klein]

1. Because the infected person is potentially shedding virus, infecting others who might not be so lucky.

2. Please learn the difference between a semi-colon and an apostrophe. It's a recurrent feature of your posts. The fact that they're on adjacent keys doesn't make them equivaleny. Sorry, equivalent.

Jeremy

I don;t always get it right,  Often, I'll go back to correct it after posting?  It seems to be a little tic I have! I'll be more careful in the future.

Regarding your point about infecting others.  I realized that when I said that "who cares?"  My point being that for those infected who could be of huge portion, there are no real terrible symptoms unlike most other diseases. That even if you get it, reactions are mild for most people. It's not the Black Death for most people.  That should calm fears about it. 

[Alan Klein]

For those interested, here is the most current WHO thinking:  https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

The report conclusion for the Public included a confirmation of my point:

For the public
1. Recognize that COVID-19 is a new and concerning disease, but that outbreaks
can managed with the right response and that the vast majority of infected
people will recover;

[Alan Klein]

That's from pg 22 of the report.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

...the vast majority of infected people will recover;

Well, duh!

That was obvious already from the 2% mortality rate (if correct)