Why would anyone need to bother!? The “scientific” forecasts falsify themselves.
Just ask South Floridians who are rolling on the (sunny) streets laughing at it. I just spent several days of my life preparing for the “catastrophe,” hours on the phone with airlines, hundreds of dollars, which would have turned into thousands have I not decided to cancel evacuation tickets, only to spend days bored, waiting for Godot.
The “scientific” forecast started with the whole freaking Florida (and more) painted catastrophe red, only to end up not even touching Florida.
There is no "the 'scientific' forecast", there are lots of them.
The one you shouldn't have believed, is Trump's prediction that it would cross Florida to Alabama. It was quite clear from the onset that (depending on how fast the High-pressure system to the North of Dorian would dissolve) Dorian was likely to take a turn North, sooner or later.
However, nobody can guarantee the course of such a chaotic weather system. That's why Scientists speak of probabilities, and there was a slim possibility that it would first make landfall in Florida before turning North. Most models indicated an earlier turn North. Lucky for the Floridians (and unfortunate for those in the Bahamas), Dorian stalled over the Bahamas which bought a bit of time for the high pressure system to weaken and stop blocking Dorian from changing course.
Interestingly, I had looked at the various forecasting models last week, and the early European model already showed Dorian stalling/stopping (as it did) whereas the US models showed only a bit of slowdown and a larger probability of it making landfall in Florida. I wondered which would be closer to the awful reality. Now we Know.
