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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 111585 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1860 on: July 26, 2020, 08:05:01 pm »

Again...its a localized climate which is heavily influence by the ocean currents. Maybe the currents changed bringing warm currents to Greenland for a few hundred years, then changed and those warm currents did not reach Greenland. Please look at the entire earth's temperatures and you'll see the drastic increase in temperature the last 100 years, especially the last 20 years has not occurred before.

As far as Polar bears...who knows how they survived. Maybe the rest of the Artctic stayed cold. I'm much more concerned about how humans will adapt. Where will 140,000,000 million migrants go?

Polar bear body temperature is around 98F (36C). So is their liquid output. The seals get even warmer - up to 100F (38C). Technically, they are contributing also to the warming of the Arctic ocean. 
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1861 on: July 26, 2020, 08:06:42 pm »

Again...its a localized climate which is heavily influence by the ocean currents. Maybe the currents changed bringing warm currents to Greenland for a few hundred years, then changed and those warm currents did not reach Greenland. Please look at the entire earth's temperatures and you'll see the drastic increase in temperature the last 100 years, especially the last 20 years has not occurred before.

As far as Polar bears...who knows how they survived. Maybe the rest of the Artctic stayed cold. I'm much more concerned about how humans will adapt. Where will 140,000,000 million migrants go?
Understanding that polar bears survived high warming periods is very important.  The climate change adherents have pushed the danger of a warming climate by trying to scare people that the cute little bear will become extinct.  They're using fear tactics to get the policy changes they desire.  If they're distorting these things, what else are they embellishing?  Maybe the 140,000,000 number is a lie too.  Maybe the whole thing is a lie.  If scientists start spinning tales to scare people, they're going to lose fair minded people who do want to do the right thing.  But no one wants to be a sucker and spend their hard earned money on nonsense.

hogloff

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1862 on: July 26, 2020, 08:29:14 pm »

Understanding that polar bears survived high warming periods is very important.  The climate change adherents have pushed the danger of a warming climate by trying to scare people that the cute little bear will become extinct.  They're using fear tactics to get the policy changes they desire.  If they're distorting these things, what else are they embellishing?  Maybe the 140,000,000 number is a lie too.  Maybe the whole thing is a lie.  If scientists start spinning tales to scare people, they're going to lose fair minded people who do want to do the right thing.  But no one wants to be a sucker and spend their hard earned money on nonsense.

I wouldn't expect anything else from you Alan. You are so paranoid about everything...tell me do you wear an aluminum cone when you go outside. Your mistrust in experts is truly amusing...who the hell do you trust. How do you make daily decisions...just spin the wheel and pray. Everyone seems to be out to screw you.

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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1863 on: July 26, 2020, 09:01:23 pm »

They're using fear tactics to get the policy changes they desire.


Why to they desire these policy changes?  Whats's in it for them?

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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1864 on: July 26, 2020, 09:04:37 pm »

Understanding that polar bears survived high warming periods is very important.  The climate change adherents have pushed the danger of a warming climate by trying to scare people that the cute little bear will become extinct.  They're using fear tactics to get the policy changes they desire.  If they're distorting these things, what else are they embellishing?  Maybe the 140,000,000 number is a lie too.  Maybe the whole thing is a lie.  If scientists start spinning tales to scare people, they're going to lose fair minded people who do want to do the right thing.  But no one wants to be a sucker and spend their hard earned money on nonsense.

I took a quick look at the chart. It is kind of funky because the Y-axis on the left side is different than the Y-axis on the right side, so comparing graphs between time periods is difficult. You would think it would be an easy fix to use the same scale, but apparently not.  I think you would probably get a few points off in an elementary science fair for doing so, but it has been a long time since I was in elementary school.  Maybe they teach that sort of thing in junior high now.  Fortunately for us, we only have to look at the right side of the graph because the polar bear is only between 150,000 and 600,000 years old depending on who you believe, if anyone. That is why I asked if polar bears were around back then when we were talking before. I mean you need less than half the chart, why not post half the chart? At least you wouldn't have to futz around with the scroll bar thing. It leaves me thinking that perhaps this is not the best chart to use when thinking about polar bears. But what the hell. Alan found it on the internet, so let's go with it.

In the article I read, it said that polar bears have only been living during one or perhaps two of the recent warming periods, neither of  which were as hot as it is projected to be by 2100. Sounds like we don't know whether the polar bears will go extinct by looking exclusively at a temperature chart because they have never been through such a temperature change.

Of course there are a lot of other things in play. Temperature itself may not be the critical factor, except as it may influence other factors. I mean I have been to the zoo in the summer when it was really hot and the polar bears were alive, so it is not just temperature. I am thinking about things like food and habitat. But for someone like me, who only knows that polar bears are white, live in the arctic, and eat seals, there are a lot of unknown unknowns. But I am sure the scientists have thought about all this stuff before, and have taken it into consideration. It is not like some random guy on the internet who likes to take pictures and can't decide whether to buy a Canon or a Nikon is going to solve the mystery.

https://www.nrdc.org/experts/sylvia-fallon/polar-bears-older-past-same-future

I am not a scientist. I don't know whether the temperature chart or the article about how long the polar bears have been around are correct. I mean the weatherman can't tell you exactly what the temperature is going to be tomorrow, so I don't know why scientists think they can tell you exactly what the temperature was a million years ago. You also may be able to find contradictory information. In fact I am certain you can. I am just looking at some stuff on the internet, to wit: a temperature chart Alan dredged up from somewhere, and an article about how old the polar bears are I found by Googling "how old are the polar bears?" I am pretty sure that doesn't qualify for the scientific method. And of course if you do not believe experts and think they are all lying to you, none of this stuff makes any difference anyway. Just tell yourself the bears will be okay and be done with it. Don’t think you have to convince me. I shoot Fuji.

Finally, I don't know what Alan is talking about when he says "no one wants to be a sucker and spend their hard earned money on nonsense."  Is he talking about making a contribution to the Society for the Preservation of Polar Bears or what? Because it sure seems like it would be easier just to cut them a $10 check and get a free tote bag with a polar bear on it than go through all this rigamarole.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 12:55:07 pm by faberryman »
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1865 on: July 26, 2020, 09:19:17 pm »

According to the recent records, the bear populations at the far north are doing well, but the ones in southern Arctic regions are experiencing decline. Melting ice causing polar bears to get thinner and have fewer cubs. If the sea ice starts to decline also at the far north, we can expect fewer polar bears to survice.

Quote
“Confusion over polar bear numbers is justified, as some populations are increasing, while others are declining,” said Brandon Laforest, a senior specialist of Arctic species at WWF Canada. “We are seeing a decline in numbers in populations located near Hudson Bay as sea ice completely melts in the summer, and these bears are dependent on sea ice for survival,” said Laforest.

Polar bears near Churchill, Man., are often going hungry or travelling north for a longer seal-hunting season. However, subpopulations farther north are holding steady, with some even reporting an increase in numbers. “With polar bear countries, including Canada, implementing harvest management regimes, we have reports that these populations are going up,” said Geoff York, a director at Polar Bears International.

One key factor in polar bear survival is the presence of sea ice. “We see a very strong correlation between sea ice loss and changes in polar bears’ abundance,” said York.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6590250/polar-bears-climate-change-2020/
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 11:02:20 pm by LesPalenik »
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1866 on: July 26, 2020, 10:03:04 pm »

Understanding that polar bears survived high warming periods is very important.  The climate change adherents have pushed the danger of a warming climate by trying to scare people that the cute little bear will become extinct.  They're using fear tactics to get the policy changes they desire.  If they're distorting these things, what else are they embellishing?  Maybe the 140,000,000 number is a lie too.  Maybe the whole thing is a lie.  If scientists start spinning tales to scare people, they're going to lose fair minded people who do want to do the right thing.  But no one wants to be a sucker and spend their hard earned money on nonsense.

Yup, the jig is up. Scientists all over the world are concocting wild-ass theories to scare people for the big money payout they get from doing that. All those gazillions in research grants are up for grabs. I was just speaking to a climate scientist the other day at the Lamborghini dealer. His threw a piston. I was in the showroom to get out of the heat.
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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1867 on: July 26, 2020, 10:49:17 pm »

Yup, the jig is up. Scientists all over the world are concocting wild-ass theories to scare people for the big money payout they get from doing that. All those gazillions in research grants are up for grabs. I was just speaking to a climate scientist the other day at the Lamborghini dealer. His threw a piston. I was in the showroom to get out of the heat.

Yeah, it is always the money. Follow the money. Which begs the question: whose paying Alan to advance the theory that the polar bears are going to be okay? Must be the oil and gas industry. Who else?
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 11:02:50 pm by faberryman »
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TechTalk

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1868 on: July 26, 2020, 10:56:00 pm »

When you start with the supposition that scientists with the greatest expertise in the field are lying to you, it makes sense to get your information by asking strangers with no real experience in obscure corners of the internet. Kind of like learning about sex and where babies come from by asking the other kids on the playground.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1869 on: July 27, 2020, 12:46:35 pm »


Why to they desire these policy changes?  Whats's in it for them?


Politicians gain more power controlling the economy and government spending.  Companies like Tesla who sell electric cars, power storage batteries, solar cells, etc.  Environmental scientists get grants for research.  How many grants do you think a scientist will get if he suggests that global warming is not due to humans?  (Publish or perish.)

hogloff

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1870 on: July 27, 2020, 01:00:55 pm »

Politicians gain more power controlling the economy and government spending.  Companies like Tesla who sell electric cars, power storage batteries, solar cells, etc.  Environmental scientists get grants for research.  How many grants do you think a scientist will get if he suggests that global warming is not due to humans?  (Publish or perish.)

And how much oil do you think the big bad oil companies will sell if they suggest global warming is occurring and being caused predominantly by gas powered engines? Who do you think has more muscle...the scientists in their dark labs or the oil executives sitting on wall street?
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faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1871 on: July 27, 2020, 01:06:49 pm »

How many grants do you think a scientist will get if he suggests that global warming is not due to humans?  (Publish or perish.)

He could always change fields to epidemiology, and publish papers suggesting the cornoavirus will go away by Easter.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1872 on: July 27, 2020, 01:10:41 pm »

I took a quick look at the chart. It is kind of funky because the Y-axis on the left side is different than the Y-axis on the right side, so comparing graphs between time periods is difficult. You would think it would be an easy fix to use the same scale, but apparently not.  I think you would probably get a few points off in an elementary science fair for doing so, but it has been a long time since I was in elementary school.  Maybe they teach that sort of thing in junior high now.  Fortunately for us, we only have to look at the right side of the graph because the polar bear is only between 150,000 and 600,000 years old depending on who you believe, if anyone. That is why I asked if polar bears were around back then when we were talking before. I mean you need less than half the chart, why not post half the chart? At least you wouldn't have to futz around with the scroll bar thing. It leaves me thinking that perhaps this is not the best chart to use when thinking about polar bears. But what the hell. Alan found it on the internet, so let's go with it.

In the article I read, it said that polar bears have only been living during one or perhaps two of the recent warming periods, neither of  which were as hot as it is projected to be by 2100. Sounds like we don't know whether the polar bears will go extinct by looking exclusively at a temperature chart because they have never been through such a temperature change.

Of course there are a lot of other things in play. Temperature itself may not be the critical factor, except as it may influence other factors. I mean I have been to the zoo in the summer when it was really hot and the polar bears were alive, so it is not just temperature. I am thinking about things like food and habitat. But for someone like me, who only knows that polar bears are white, live in the arctic, and eat seals, there are a lot of unknown unknowns. But I am sure the scientists have thought about all this stuff before, and have taken it into consideration. It is not like some random guy on the internet who likes to take pictures and can't decide whether to buy a Canon or a Nikon is going to solve the mystery.

https://www.nrdc.org/experts/sylvia-fallon/polar-bears-older-past-same-future

I am not a scientist. I don't know whether the temperature chart or the article about how long the polar bears have been around are correct. I mean the weatherman can't tell you exactly what the temperature is going to be tomorrow, so I don't know why scientists think they can tell you exactly what the temperature was a million years ago. You also may be able to find contradictory information. In fact I am certain you can. I am just looking at some stuff on the internet, to wit: a temperature chart Alan dredged up from somewhere, and an article about how old the polar bears are I found by Googling "how old are the polar bears?" I am pretty sure that doesn't qualify for the scientific method. And of course if you do not believe experts and think they are all lying to you, none of this stuff makes any difference anyway. Just tell yourself the bears will be okay and be done with it. Don’t think you have to convince me. I shoot Fuji.

Finally, I don't know what Alan is talking about when he says "no one wants to be a sucker and spend their hard earned money on nonsense."  Is he talking about making a contribution to the Society for the Preservation of Polar Bears or what? Because it sure seems like it would be easier just to cut them a $10 check and get a free tote bag than go through all this rigamarole.
There's nothing wrong with the graph.  The Y axis values of temperature are consistent throughout.  The left side labels the Y axis in degrees in Centigrade while the right side label is indicated in Fahrenheit.  That's why the numbers seem in conflict.  They aren't.  Note that my earlier posts gave measurements in Fahrenheit. 

The argument made by "experts" is that the polar bear is dying out because they can't  adapt.  The graph show that while polar bears have been on earth, they have gone through many periods when the temperature was a lot hotter than it is now.  Their arguments is not that their extinction would happen at some time in the future assuming it gets that hot.  But rather they are dying now which is false both from a graph point of view and from other studies that have counted the bears.  The scientists were premature in their claims.  While it gets proponents to their side, more astute and skeptical people see it as an attempt to fool the public.  So they lose credibility.  That's not how science should be done.

Finally, your linked article is very interesting. Thanks for posting it.  The main point about how extra hot temperature in the future might wipe out the polar bear is very speculative.  Remember, we're not talking about an individual bear living today that will die in a hundred years.  We're talking about generations of bears that will adapt to changing temperature.  During that period, the fittest will survive who can handle the rising temperatures as any Darwin fan like me knows. They will have progeny who will be able to handle the changes even better.  The other individuals who can't will die out and not have offspring or will have but they will die.  That's how nature works.  A form of "herd immunity" so to speak. 

faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1873 on: July 27, 2020, 01:18:50 pm »

There's nothing wrong with the graph.  The Y axis values of temperature are consistent throughout.  The left side labels the Y axis in degrees in Centigrade while the right side label is indicated in Fahrenheit.  That's why the numbers seem in conflict.  They aren't.  Note that my earlier posts gave measurements in Fahrenheit. 

The argument made by "experts" is that the polar bear is dying out because they can't  adapt.  The graph show that while polar bears have been on earth, they have gone through many periods when the temperature was a lot hotter than it is now.  Their arguments is not that their extinction would happen at some time in the future assuming it gets that hot.  But rather they are dying now which is false both from a graph point of view and from other studies that have counted the bears.  The scientists were premature in their claims.  While it gets proponents to their side, more astute and skeptical people see it as an attempt to fool the public.  So they lose credibility.  That's not how science should be done.

Finally, your linked article is very interesting. Thanks for posting it.  The main point about how extra hot temperature in the future might wipe out the polar bear is very speculative.  Remember, we're not talking about an individual bear living today that will die in a hundred years.  We're talking about generations of bears that will adapt to changing temperature.  During that period, the fittest will survive who can handle the rising temperatures as any Darwin fan like me knows. They will have progeny who will be able to handle the changes even better.  The other individuals who can't will die out and not have offspring or will have but they will die.  That's how nature works.  A form of "herd immunity" so to speak.

What a bunch of gibberish and nonsense. I am going to make a donation on your behalf to the Society for the Preservation of Polar Bears anyway. Keep an eye out for your tote bag.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 01:32:03 pm by faberryman »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1874 on: July 27, 2020, 01:20:18 pm »

And how much oil do you think the big bad oil companies will sell if they suggest global warming is occurring and being caused predominantly by gas powered engines? Who do you think has more muscle...the scientists in their dark labs or the oil executives sitting on wall street?
We expect oil companies to lie to protect their bottom line.  Does that justify environmentalists and scientists lying about polar bears and climate change?  Why should the public believe anyone when everyone is lying?

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1875 on: July 27, 2020, 01:25:20 pm »

A general reminder when talking about temperature differences or emission increases, it's one thing to look at the absolute differences, it's another thing if we look at the rate of change. The current increases in Greenhouse gasses and the temperature increase are occurring at an unprecedentedly fast pace.

Nature is having a hard time to keep up with the speed at which things are changing.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1876 on: July 27, 2020, 01:28:35 pm »

What a bunch or gibberish and nonsense. I am going to make a donation on your behalf to the Society for the Preservation of Polar Bears anyway. Keep an eye out for your tote bag.
Frank, you were the one who didn't understand the graph.  But I appreciate the tote bag.  I hope it's got a cute little baby polar bear on it. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1877 on: July 27, 2020, 01:31:23 pm »

A general reminder when talking about temperature differences or emission increases, it's one thing to look at the absolute differences, it's another thing if we look at the rate of change. The current increases in Greenhouse gasses and the temperature increase are occurring at an unprecedentedly fast pace.

Nature is having a hard time to keep up with the speed at which things are changing.
So far, the polar bear is doing OK.  So that argument is just speculative.  [Some=edit] scientists have been saying the polar bear is already declining.  That isn't true. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1878 on: July 27, 2020, 01:41:18 pm »

So far, the polar bear is doing OK.  So that argument is just speculative.  [Some=edit] scientists have been saying the polar bear is already declining.  That isn't true.

Alan,

you are just thinking so. The bears are doing OK only in the far north where there is still enough ice. In the southern regions of Arctic with less ice in the winter, polar bears are on decline. In Churchill, Manitoba the Polar bear population has been reduced by 30%. I quoted the source in my previous post. 
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1879 on: July 27, 2020, 01:47:14 pm »

Alan,

you are just thinking so. The bears are doing OK only in the far north where there is still enough ice. In the southern regions of Arctic with less ice in the winter, polar bears are on decline. In Churchill, Manitoba the Polar bear population has been reduced by 30%. I quoted the source in my previous post. 
Maybe the 30% moved to colder areas?  Just like there won't be as many Canadians going to Florida as it warms up north.  Miamians will be complaining, "Where are the Canadians?" :)
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