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Author Topic: GFX100, a 15 fold increase of value compared to an XF IQ350 (per Bernard)  (Read 12683 times)

Christopher

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #20 on: June 25, 2019, 04:11:37 pm »

Actually there may be a negative benefit as I have heard they make harsh patterns when closed down.

Edmund

And have you actually seen it? I have heard a lot which was just a lot of BS.
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Christopher Hauser
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eronald

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #21 on: June 25, 2019, 05:03:29 pm »

And have you actually seen it? I have heard a lot which was just a lot of BS.

No, I am not certain I have seen it, Although I seem to remember not being impressed with some images. But I have had this issue with two of my own lenses on other cameras that in some cases an aperture shape really can degrade pictures. Someone who is "precise" enough to go for a central shutter for flash portraits would do well to test the lens that will be used.


Edmund
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #22 on: June 25, 2019, 06:11:20 pm »

One thing I am sure about is that Hasselblad knows its business better than any of us do, and that's why they did what they did with the X1D Mark II. The dramatic expansion of the medium format digital market that Fuji and Hasselbad achieved with the GFX 50S/R and the X1D was primarily about moving advanced (and in many cases not so advanced) amateur photographers from their APS-C and FF systems. AFAIK, well over 70% of the GFX units were sold to this group. What changed to incentivize them to move up? Two things.  Primarily price, and secondarily the smaller size/weight of the systems compared to conventional medium format digital systems. The Fuji GFX 100 is a completely different proposition. $10k v. $4-5k for a GFX 50S/R. And, it's relatively huge in size and weight compared to a GFX 50S/R. Against that backdrop, what Hasselblad did with the Mark II was potentially brilliant. It's all about the price! You can now have a brand new Hasselblad X1D Handmade in Sweden for $5700, pretty close to the Fuji GFX. And, the size and weight advantages were preserved the Mark II, with a huge new LCD screen to show off that smartphone-type User Interface and a very much improved EVF thrown in for good measure. Nobody saw that price drop coming.
So, that Fuji Marketing Director responsible for the GFX 100 may be happy, but the one resonsible for the GFX 50S/R may not be so happy. They no longer own the end of the market for price sensitive buyers.
BTW,  I personally wanted an X2D with the 100MP Sony sensor, but I am an outlier in the overall market, just as you are, Bernard.

A couple of points:
- I have been vocal about Hasselblad not communicating so I understand why they had to do something and announce it
- I have also been vocal about the level of maturity of Hasselblad profucts at H6D/X1D product launch so I understand that they may have wanted to wait until they were ready to launch the X1DII
- I understand that, within the very limited scope they seem able to handle with the resources their business plan is driving, they probably couldnít do more than the X1DII in this time frame, but I regret their lack of ambition
- yes, they have lowered the price point which lowers to a certain extent the entry point, but if you think of a typical 3-5 lenses set up vs the Fuji you are still much more expensive and prospects buyers understand that, I am not sure it makes that much of a difference
- I am not sure that people interested in a 5k$ 50mp body at this point in time will not wait for the next gen Fuji anyway. If they are price sensitive they will be super careful about what platform they invest in
- the GFX100 price point is not very far north of the X1D price point during the first year of its existence, so yes those interested arenít the majority but there are still many. Add to those the former H and XF crowd tired of the super narrow scope of usage of their 100mp wonder machine and you have a very significant niche with a direct positive halo effect on the whole GFX line up,
- had Hasselblad not shown their cards now they may have been able to indirectly slow down the launch succes of the Fuji, but now we are in for a tidal wave.
- believe it or not, a significant part of GFX100 buyers donít need the camera, they want it. Because itís new and the best toy in town. This effect works best in a blue ocean situation where there is no annoying doubt in a corner of your mind about the toy remaining the best long enough. Because itís still significant money and those buyers have money because they know the worth of it. This near impulse buy effect is very strong at launch and the decreases pretty quickly. I am just saying that Hasselblad has helped this blue ocean situation by making it clear that they would not be playing in the 100mp segment.

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 06:18:09 pm by BernardLanguillier »
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hubell

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #23 on: June 25, 2019, 06:13:25 pm »

...the system in total (lenses) is so much more affordable than anything else and it beats anything else. I have no doubts it will be superior to any recent gen cameras from Phase or Hassi.


This is the kind of gross generalization that makes these discussions so ridiculous. It reflects a presumptuousness that you know what is best for every photographer.
However, I do agree that the GFX 100 is NOT overpriced when you compare what you are (probably) getting at the price.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 06:16:27 pm by hubell »
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eronald

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #24 on: June 25, 2019, 06:32:13 pm »

- believe it or not, a significant part of GFX100 buyers donít need the camera, they want it. Because itís new and the best toy in town. This effect works best in a blue ocean situation where there is no annoying doubt in a corner of your mind about the toy remaining the best long enough. Because itís still significant money and those buyers have money because they know the worth of it. This near impulse buy effect is very strong at launch and the decreases pretty quickly. I am just saying that Hasselblad has helped this blue ocean situation by making it clear that they would not be playing in the 100mp segment.

Cheers,
Bernard
Bernard,

That is the most interesting analysis by  of the buy impulse for high end photo gear that I have ever read.

However, I am sure the experts at Fuji understand most of this, but it served them badly:

  Instead of a Nikon F moment, they launched a luxury product. A waste of industrial design, and above all a terrible loss of one or two years initiative.  Fuji could have used a $6000 GFX100  to decisively claim the high MP pro and enthusiast market, by getting a camera into the hands of *every* interested photographer.

Edmund
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 06:42:18 pm by eronald »
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Dan Wells

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #25 on: June 25, 2019, 06:33:56 pm »

How sure are you that the GFX 100 sensor is only ~$1000? There has historically been a size point where sensors become much more complex to manufacture, because they can't be imaged on the wafer in a single exposure. It had been under 24x36mm (I presume that's been fixed, since full-frame cameras have dropped so radically in cost) for many years. Years ago, Canon's APS-H sensor size was a response to this - it was the biggest sensor they could make without stitching on the wafer. Since there are now $1300 24x36mm cameras using current generation sensors, I'm guessing that those are easy to manufacture now.

I don't think medium-format sensors are single exposures? Of course the 50 MP sensor would have the same problem - but Sony could be selling through existing stocks of those (at a discounted price, because they recognize that they have to compete with the highest-end 24x36mm sensors) or they could be made on an older line that can't be switched to manufacturing the 100 MP sensor (or another newer sensor with a better margin per wafer). If it's made on an old line that has few other products, it's worth making as long as it covers the costs of the wafers and keeping the line running - while the 100 MP sensor has to compete with making many more, smaller sensors on the same machines.

For these and other reasons (I don't know about others since I'm not a chip designer), I could see the 100 MP sensor being several times as expensive as the 50 MP. Sony could also simply charge a much higher margin on the 100 MP part, because they know it has little competition. The 50 MP cameras have to compete with the A7rIII/D850/Z7/S1r complex - if they don't, they won't sell, since those cameras are competitive in image quality. This means that the sensor has to sell in at least somewhat the same price range, so that Fuji (and to a lesser extent Hasselblad) are looking at a bill of materials that lets them compete, even when they have some other parts (oversize shutter) that are more expensive.

The GFX 100, on the other hand, offers image quality that can only be matched or exceeded in two ways, both much more expensive. One is the Phase One and Hasselblad systems that cost multiples of its price. The second is 8x10" film - the equipment is relatively affordable, but color film is a minimum of $15 per sheet, with processing about the same again. Neither is anywhere near as convenient to use for many types of photography. Sony, knowing this, could be charging Fuji an enormous price for the sensor - and/or Fuji could be charging a much higher margin on the camera because the competition is so limited.

Whether or not either Fuji or Sony is getting an unusually high margin, the GFX 100 is a bargain compared to anything else with that level of image quality. How many people need that level of image quality is another question entirely. My Z7 (if you don't like Nikon, substitute A7rIII, GFX 50, X1D or S1r - it won't change the meaning of the sentence) can drive my 24" Canon Pro-2000 printer to its limits, and has resolution enough for an 8K display, too.  Anything above that is for 44" and 60" printers. How many photographers regularly print 40x60" and above for closely viewed display? I'm sure there are some, probably including several people on this forum. For them, the GFX 100 promises to be by far the most affordable access to a new level of image quality.

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faberryman

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #26 on: June 25, 2019, 06:34:34 pm »

That is probably the most interesting analysis of the buy impulse for high end photo gear that I have ever read. There is a luxury marketing job waiting for you in Paris, or a car marketing job over in Stuttgart at BMW.
Seems like he was just stating the obvious to me. Maybe that's in short supply.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 06:42:33 pm by faberryman »
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hubell

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #27 on: June 25, 2019, 06:42:55 pm »

A couple of points:
- had Hasselblad not shown their cards now they may have been able to indirectly slow down the launch succes of the Fuji, but now we are in for a tidal wave.
- believe it or not, a significant part of GFX100 buyers donít need the camera, they want it. Because itís new and the best toy in town. This effect works best in a blue ocean situation where there is no annoying doubt in a corner of your mind about the toy remaining the best long enough. Because itís still significant money and those buyers have money because they know the worth of it. This near impulse buy effect is very strong at launch and the decreases pretty quickly. I am just saying that Hasselblad has helped this blue ocean situation by making it clear that they would not be playing in the 100mp segment.

Cheers,
Bernard

A tidal wave? An impulse buy? Please remind me of the last camera that was the size and weight of the GFX 100 and that cost $10,000 where the sales were a "tidal wave"?
There is a big difference between a $4,000-$5,000 toy and a $10,000 toy. $5,000 is not a big stretch from a $3300 A7RIII or a comparable Nikon or Canon. $10,000 is.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 06:47:05 pm by hubell »
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eronald

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #28 on: June 25, 2019, 06:43:24 pm »

Seems like he was just stating the obvious to me. Maybe that's in short supply.

He stated it very well :)

Edmund
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eronald

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #29 on: June 25, 2019, 06:48:12 pm »

A tidal wave? An impulse buy? Please remind me of the last camera that was the size and weight of the GFX 100 and that cost $10,000 where the sales were a "tidal wave"?
There is a big difference between a $4,000-$5,000 toy and a $10,000 toy. $10,000 is not a big stretch from a $3300 A7RIII or a comparable Nikon or Canon.

Actually, when Nikon brought out the Nikon F, it was a huge heavy monster compared to the Sony of the day, the Leica,, but its careful engineering and in then end accessible pricing made Nippon Kogaku into the owners of the  "system camera" for many years. My belief is that Fuji wasted such a moment once with the GFX-50S by bad design and now with the GFX100 by bad pricing. I don't think they'll get a third chance.

Edmund
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 06:51:43 pm by eronald »
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hubell

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #30 on: June 25, 2019, 06:51:32 pm »

Whether you think the GFX 100 is overpriced or not (I don't), it's a fairly safe bet that it will be $7500 in six-12 months. How much is the Fuji XH-1 today compared to when it was first offered? The XT-2?

fdisilvestro

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #31 on: June 25, 2019, 06:58:45 pm »

The GFX 100 is not a commodity, price is not set by BOM cost.

eronald

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #32 on: June 25, 2019, 07:02:57 pm »

Whether you think the GFX 100 is overpriced or not (I don't), it's a fairly safe bet that it will be $7500 in six-12 months.


Hubell you are right. I wouldn't take that bet :)

And I think that doesn't matter any more- the  "luxury" tag will stay stuck to the GFX100, the camera now simply won't get the fast immediate buy-in which launches a "legend". When people understand that the price they pay is a no-brainer for that class of performance and that the product will be a major market force.

Sony understood the need to create a watershed moment, and provided breakthrough performance while pricing the A7 and especially A7R series impossibly low and pried open the ILC market which had been a C/N duopoly.

Edmund
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 07:07:32 pm by eronald »
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hcubell

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #33 on: June 25, 2019, 07:48:22 pm »

The GFX 100 is not a commodity, price is not set by BOM cost.

Lots of R&D plus engineering and relatively few units to be sold for the GFX 100=high(er) price. Fuji will let the early adopters jump in and recover up front R&D and engineering, then slash the price. Nobody will complain.
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mcbroomf

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #34 on: June 25, 2019, 07:51:35 pm »

Have to remember that if you're considering the GFX-100 and are switching or adding a new system that it's a lot more than the body to get a full system.  By my take I'd need to spend an additional $10k for lenses, battery, swivel EVF, to cover the range of interest (23mm - 250mm) even with the current discounts, about $500/ lens I think.  No doubt for some this is handily still in the impulse buy range but I'd think it pushes it out a good bit further for most.

I'm interested in this system myself but will wait for; good/clear reviews, Sony next evolution to high MP and it's review, a 100mp body with no IBIS (ie smaller and cheaper) for tripod use.  So saving pennies for a couple of years I think.
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eronald

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2019, 09:34:51 pm »

Lots of R&D plus engineering and relatively few units to be sold for the GFX 100=high(er) price. Fuji will let the early adopters jump in and recover up front R&D and engineering, then slash the price. Nobody will complain.

By the time that happens, 35mm will be at 70MP, and the moment will be gone.

My take: the GFX100 release is a case of snatching Mediocrity from the jaws of Victory :)

Edmund
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #36 on: June 25, 2019, 10:29:46 pm »

If I may, I believe that some here don't fully realize what is happening in Asia in terms of economic development.

The city of Shanghai alone is likely to eat up a significant chunck of the GFX100 production for months to come.

My guess is that this camera is going to sell in numbers measured in the tens of thousands over the 3 years of its shelves life.

The net benefit for photographers is that this is going to provide Fujifilm with enough cash to continue to develop the G platform.

Cheers,
Bernard

Gigi

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #37 on: June 25, 2019, 10:43:35 pm »

Like some others, I don't see the pricing of the GFX-100 as absurd. Compared with what it gives and where it fits in the market, seems about right. A premium over 50mp, but not in the Phase stratosphere. Yes, its disappointing its not priced lower for more "mass sales", but it can come down, can't go up.

Also, there is R&D to be paid for in this camera - and we have no idea how that figures into the pricing. So yes, I do wish it were cheaper, but not surprised.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 03:38:14 am by Gigi »
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Geoff

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #38 on: June 25, 2019, 10:46:15 pm »

Edmund,

I think you may be very surprised.  It it, indeed, interesting times. 

Rand

Actually, when Nikon brought out the Nikon F, it was a huge heavy monster compared to the Sony of the day, the Leica,, but its careful engineering and in then end accessible pricing made Nippon Kogaku into the owners of the  "system camera" for many years. My belief is that Fuji wasted such a moment once with the GFX-50S by bad design and now with the GFX100 by bad pricing. I don't think they'll get a third chance.

Edmund
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Rand Scott Adams

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Re: The incomprehensible and absurd overpricing of the Fuji GFX-100
« Reply #39 on: June 25, 2019, 11:46:38 pm »

Well there is still the point of X1D lenses are much more expensive, without any benefit. (Except the 1% who need LS for flash.)

I personally donít think the GFX100 is overpriced. Certainly I would have preferred 7-8k, however, the system in total (lenses) is so much more affordable than anything else and it beats anything else. I have no doubts it will be superior to any recent gen cameras from Phase or Hassi.

Im also sure we will see a 100MP S version without IBIS around 6k sooner rather then later.

The benefit of some X1D lenses is that they are lighter and smaller, I do not know about any quality difference when compared with Fuji lenses. But their main advantage is that they work very well with X1D bodies :).

I would have preferred a GFX100 with no IBIS and no video (cooling issues?) which would have made it smaller and lighter (and cheaper).
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