I changed my mind from my post above and ordered a DS1819+ but only the 6 x 12TB drives I'd planned on. I'll run them Raid 6 so get 48TB and will swap out the 6TB drives in my old unit and build a bigger raid when the time comes (quite a few years). And I can use the 2 spare slots as needed over time to expand.
Thanks everyone for your advice and discussion ...
I thought I would add a Post Script to this adventure.
Short story : About 2 months after setting up the new 1819+ my nearly full 1515+ started losing power randomly (not while accessing data fortunately). I just got a replacement from Synology (over 3.5 years since I bought it) and moved the disks. All is well.
Longer story :
Randomly turning off as stated above, but with over 3 years since I bought it (3 year warranty) I idly wondered about a repair vs just getting a different one (1515 no longer available), or even another make. My NAS is 3rd backup and I also have a 4th JBOD upstairs on another PC and a set in the shed so the 1515 was not part of my workflow.
I came across a youtube video showing the power supply (possible a common fail point) being replaced on a similar Synology NAS. A guy in the UK with a UK link to buy one. 73 GB pounds over there and $200 over here so I thought to buy one in the UK and have it shipped locally to my sister and get it at Christmas when I'll be there, but in the chatter after the video (or maybe elsewhere .. sorry , lost the link) someone posted a comment that Synology had extended the warranty to 4 years on some products. I inquired with them and found mine is covered until May of next year (could not figure that out as that would be 4 years and 4 months) so they shipped me a bench tested refurb which just arrived after a hold on my CC for the cost. Took less than 5 mins to move the disks, start it up and verify that it's working OK, so the dead one (which now no longer powers up at all) will head back tomorrow in the same box.
Now I just need to consider migrating to bigger disks (and raid 6 I think) in the 1515+ and I'm done for many a year. I might just buy one of those PSU's though as they both use the same type (3)
Mike