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Author Topic: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?  (Read 52676 times)

BernardLanguillier

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #160 on: December 22, 2018, 07:49:40 pm »

Here's what I found. Looks to me like the R is more successful from a sales perspective than the Z.

https://nikonrumors.com/2018/11/07/the-latest-full-frame-market-mirrorless-market-share-sony-67-canon-22-1-nikon-10-4.aspx/

I stand corrected, the R has been selling more than the Z.

As a former Canon shooter, how tempted are you to replace your Sony by an R? What does that tell you about the appeal of the R? Why do you think so many people have bought the R considering what it offers?

Cheers,
Bernard

hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #161 on: December 22, 2018, 08:17:34 pm »

I stand corrected, the R has been selling more than the Z.

As a former Canon shooter, how tempted are you to replace your Sony by an R? What does that tell you about the appeal of the R? Why do you think so many people have bought the R considering what it offers?

Cheers,
Bernard

No inclination to jump ship as that's a quick way to spend money foolishly. I moved to Sony when I was looking for a lighter kit for travel and Canon just did not have a full frame system for me that was light. Sony did...

The appeal of the R is directed more at the existing huge Canon photography base which allows them a lighter kit while still maintaining the things they like about Canon such as lenses and ergonomics. Most likely why you bought a Z rather than a Sony.
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BJL

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #162 on: December 22, 2018, 10:02:53 pm »

I stand corrected, the R has been selling more than the Z.
Those numbers have the R outselling the more expensive Z7;
I await data when the Z6 is on the market
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Dan Wells

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #163 on: December 23, 2018, 12:07:30 am »

It's all over the place, depending on whom you believe (nobody has anything close to worldwide data with any sort of accuracy).

At least what I've seen enough different places to (more or less) believe goes something like this...

Canon is pretty clearly #1 overall in camera sales, and has something in every market segment.

It's unclear whether Nikon or Sony is #2 overall. Volume in the very low end is key, and both Canon and Nikon sell a ton of cheap DSLRs, with Canon in the lead. At least in the US, I don't get the feeling the A5100 (and perhaps the a6000) is close even in sales, let alone installed base (partially judging by what my students have brought to class over the years - the Canon vs Nikon ratio changes, but Sony is 1 in 10 at most, and not really ahead of Fuji).

I'm not clear who's ahead once you get past the low end. Sony has had a lot of success with the A7 series, and has come from being an also-ran five years ago to a significant presence. Sony is clearly #1 in full-frame mirrorless - but I've never seen a reliable number on overall full-frame (DSLRs included), much less a number that includes cameras like the D500, the EOS 80D series, , the a6500 and most Fujis as well as full-frame. Both Sony and Nikon have very strong upper-end lines (Nikon has been deliberately moving upscale, while Sony 's biggest successes have come from the full-frame a7/a9 line), while Canon has a huge installed base, especially of long lenses.

The rise of Sony is a big story - they were buried in the 5% range until a few years ago, they're now definitely the third big player.

Fuji is pretty clearly the most important player beyond the Big Three, and is growing.

Everything else is much smaller - the two Micro 4/3 players may combine to Fuji's size??? Both of them have significant specialties - Olympus in sports and action, and Panasonic in video...

Medium format has historically been an ignorable blip, even compared to full frame, which is itself small by the standards of low-end APS-C. I suspect that is still true, but will it continue to be with Fuji (and to a lesser extent Hasselblad) making relatively affordable crop-sensor medium format systems that compete with the high-resolution end of full frame... How do GFX sales compare with D850+Z7 sales, or with 5Ds/5DsR sales, or with A7rIII sales? And how much of the full-frame market are the pixel monsters?
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #164 on: December 23, 2018, 12:27:20 am »

Those numbers have the R outselling the more expensive Z7;
I await data when the Z6 is on the market

Indeed, you are right...

I don't stand corrected at all.  ;D

Cheers,
Bernard

hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #165 on: December 23, 2018, 09:59:51 am »

It's all over the place, depending on whom you believe (nobody has anything close to worldwide data with any sort of accuracy).

At least what I've seen enough different places to (more or less) believe goes something like this...

Canon is pretty clearly #1 overall in camera sales, and has something in every market segment.

It's unclear whether Nikon or Sony is #2 overall. Volume in the very low end is key, and both Canon and Nikon sell a ton of cheap DSLRs, with Canon in the lead. At least in the US, I don't get the feeling the A5100 (and perhaps the a6000) is close even in sales, let alone installed base (partially judging by what my students have brought to class over the years - the Canon vs Nikon ratio changes, but Sony is 1 in 10 at most, and not really ahead of Fuji).

I'm not clear who's ahead once you get past the low end. Sony has had a lot of success with the A7 series, and has come from being an also-ran five years ago to a significant presence. Sony is clearly #1 in full-frame mirrorless - but I've never seen a reliable number on overall full-frame (DSLRs included), much less a number that includes cameras like the D500, the EOS 80D series, , the a6500 and most Fujis as well as full-frame. Both Sony and Nikon have very strong upper-end lines (Nikon has been deliberately moving upscale, while Sony 's biggest successes have come from the full-frame a7/a9 line), while Canon has a huge installed base, especially of long lenses.

The rise of Sony is a big story - they were buried in the 5% range until a few years ago, they're now definitely the third big player.

Fuji is pretty clearly the most important player beyond the Big Three, and is growing.

Everything else is much smaller - the two Micro 4/3 players may combine to Fuji's size??? Both of them have significant specialties - Olympus in sports and action, and Panasonic in video...

Medium format has historically been an ignorable blip, even compared to full frame, which is itself small by the standards of low-end APS-C. I suspect that is still true, but will it continue to be with Fuji (and to a lesser extent Hasselblad) making relatively affordable crop-sensor medium format systems that compete with the high-resolution end of full frame... How do GFX sales compare with D850+Z7 sales, or with 5Ds/5DsR sales, or with A7rIII sales? And how much of the full-frame market are the pixel monsters?

Where do you get your information that Fuji is growing? In 2018 the top three camera manufactures ( Canon, Nikon, Sony ) sold 87.3% of all cameras. In fact those 3 increased their market share in 2018 by 6.3% at the perils of companies like Fuji.

So at best the rest of the cameras only make up 12.7% of all sales and falling. This includes the likes of Olympus, Pentax, Hassablad, Leica, Panasonic and Fuji...etc.
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Mark D Segal

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #166 on: December 23, 2018, 11:35:45 am »

This discussion is all over the place. Even setting aside the issue of where the data comes from and how reliable it is, there is the basic structure of the market to consider. Begin with this. There are all kinds of cameras out there meeting all manner of needs and expectations. Subtle differences of technology can make large differences of usage. Consumers are just as heterogeneous as the cameras. Some people will spend five digit sums on a Leica because it has a red dot, while others would spend it because they really believe in its optical superiority, while others wouldn't dream of it for any reason, being perfectly satisfied with a Canon/Nikon/Sony whatever at less than half the price. Then surpassing them all in terms of pricing and imaging capability is Phase One - a technically superb set of products with a niche market that just pays and stays. The latest IQ4 system costs over 50,000 dollars, but it's selling and this is a company that hasn't lost money ever; nor will they compete in the 2,000~6,000 dollar price range that characterizes most of the rest. The only way to properly understand this market is to break it down into its various segments, understand who the customers are in each segment, what innovation is happening in each, and what is driving customers to switch brands within a segment, or to jump segments altogether. Then one can begin to talk analytically about what's happening in the camera markets. And who has the information necessary to do all this with any precision?
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Mark D Segal (formerly MarkDS)
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faberryman

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #167 on: December 23, 2018, 12:02:53 pm »

And who has the information necessary to do all this with any precision?
Or the time or inclination, especially when you can just post a video on YouTube (or a post here) and be an instant expert. All of this market stuff is interesting, but not terribly relevant to making a decision about whether to buy a new camera or stick with the one you have. Sometimes we make it more difficult than it really needs to be.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2018, 12:43:32 pm by faberryman »
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Mark D Segal

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #168 on: December 23, 2018, 12:41:27 pm »

Or the time or inclination, especially when you can just post a video on YouTube (or a post here) and be an instant expert. All of this market stuff is interesting, but not terribly relevant to making a decision about whether to buy a new camera or stick with the one you have.

For sure! That's a custom decision based on each person's specific needs, tastes, technical understanding and budget.
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Mark D Segal (formerly MarkDS)
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #169 on: December 23, 2018, 03:04:33 pm »

I have always found Thom Hogan to be a good source of sales information though he is more Nikon-centric.  His latest article is here:  http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/the-decline-continues.html
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Dan Wells

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #170 on: December 24, 2018, 03:01:02 am »

I've never seen anything more than anecdotal information about something as basic as the breakdown between APS-C (plus Micro 4/3) and full-frame. Anecdotally, full-frame is something between 10-20% of the market...

What would be more interesting is actually divided something like this:

Entry-level - All Rebels plus D3x00, D5x00, a5100,a6000(?) X-T100, etc. Anything under $800 with a kit lens. APS-C and Micro 4/3 options. Very few cameras in this class are ever used with a lens they weren't purchased with (some come with two lenses)

Lower-end enthusiast - D7x00, EOS-x0D, D610,EOS 6D, A7II, a6500, X-T2, E-M5 mkII, etc. (at current pricing) All three format size options, although full-frame will be an older body paired with a notably low-end lens to get this low (you can get some excellent APS-C and Micro 4/3 lenses in this price range). Anything between $800 and $1500 with a kit or "super-kit" lens. Many photographers buy an additional lens, often a telephoto zoom, sometimes something wide (or both) to go with this sort of camera - often after the body purchase.

Upper-end enthusiast - A7III, X-H1, E-M1 mkII, D750, Pentax K1 mkII, D500, etc... All three format size options - the top end of APS-C and Micro 4/3 mixes with lower-end full-frame choices. Anything between $1500 and $2200 with an initial lens (which may or may not be bundled with the body). Most photographers own other lens(es) to go with their system, and many have investments in flashes or other accessories.

Prosumer - EOS 5D series, EOS-R, A7rII , Z6, etc. Anything under $3000 for the body... You sometimes get a promotional price on a lens with the body - but it's often a "pick a lens" deal, because most photographers at this level will already have a normal zoom they like (although they may pick up a second to have one for each body, to upgrade to a new version, or this may be a first full-frame body). All full-frame

Professional (fast) - Three possibilities - EOS 1Dx mkII, D5, A9. Anything over $3000 for the body with a top speed over 10 FPS, the finest AF in the world and a penchant for long glass... All full-frame (although Olympus is planning a Micro 4/3 body in this range!). Most photographers who use these own a closetful of lenses, some of them worth more than their car...

Professional (pixel monster) - Z7, D850, A7rIII, EOS 5Ds/5DsR, GFX 50R and 50S, X1D. Anything over $3000 for the body with a top speed slower than most $1000 cameras and a file size that crushes hard drives. Full frame or larger. Most photographers who use these own a closetful of lenses, often with unpronounceable names, and a printer that pretends to be furniture...

Exotic - Leica, Phase One, Hasselblad H System, RED, 4x5 film, etc. Just how small a piece of the market is this? Everything from weird $3000 compacts to $50,000 Phase backs...

Of course, these categories aren't perfect (there is no place to draw the lines that won't put some camera in a category different from a close relative). The weird divisions here are that the X-T2 ends up a category below the X-T3, and previous model Sonys end up in different categories from their successors. Neither of these seem right, but splitting some Sonys is inevitable in any scheme because of the profusion of previous models, and if the Fujis hadn't gotten split, something else that shouldn't have would have...

Any scheme like this (or model by model sales data) would tell us much more about what's going on than we know today.

The only solid numbers (not percentages) I've seen are  that ~11 million total interchangeable lens cameras are sold annually (Thom Hogan among other places), and that Nikon can make up to 20,000 Z-series bodies (Z6 and Z7 combined) plus 10,000 D850s per month (a couple of Imaging Resource interviews). Assuming that those three models are half of Nikon's full-frame production (I suspect they are somewhat less - the less expensive D610 and D750 probably sell more, even though they are older models), Nikon alone sells at least ~700,000 FF cameras annually. If Canon and Sony are similar (most estimates I've seen are that the full-frame market has three similar-scale players), and Pentax and others are negligible, that suggests that at least a couple million, and maybe more like 3 million of the 11 million cameras sold each year are full-frame.

 I saw an estimate  somewhere a couple years ago that Fuji sells roughly half a million cameras annually, mostly higher-end models (this was before the X-A series really took off in Asia). Throw in sundry E-M1 mkIIs, D500s, EOS-D80s, a6500s and the like, plus a few (probably less than 100,000/year, even with Fuji's expansion of the market) medium format bodies and my best guess is that the enthusiast and professional camera market is somewhere between 3 and 4 million bodies annually.

This is very rough, but it's interesting - there's almost certainly more revenue (not to mention more profit) outside the low end than there is in the low end. Even if the split is 8 million entry-level bodies and 3 million of everything else (and I suspect it's closer to 7 million/4 million, depending on where you draw the line), the non entry-level bodies would only have to average something like 2.5 times as expensive before they became a majority of revenue. If it's 7/4, they could be less than twice as expensive... This is before including the effects of lenses - nobody buys a 400mm f2.8 for their D3500!

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Mark D Segal

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #171 on: December 24, 2018, 09:06:04 am »

I've never seen anything more than anecdotal information...............
................This is very rough, but it's interesting ............

Perhaps to you.
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Mark D Segal (formerly MarkDS)
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #172 on: December 24, 2018, 09:42:40 am »

According to CIPA, in 2017 27% of cameras sold were full frame and contributed 54% of the dollar value.
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Dan Wells

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #173 on: December 24, 2018, 11:49:22 am »

Roughly what I estimated - I'd believe that number easily (I'd never seen CIPA broken down that way). Add something like 10-15% of sales representing 20-30% of value for enthusiast/pro APS-C and smaller (Fuji, D7x00, D500, EOS-80D, E-M1 mkII, GH5, etc) and less than 1% of sales, but with 3-4% of value for medium format (it used to be much lower than that, but the GFX and X1D sell much more than MF ever did before)... Note that 1% of sales represents about 10,000 cameras/ month - that's the production capacity of the D850 line. Since Nikon sells every D850 they can make right away, it's a handy benchmark - 1% ~= D850... All of medium format probably doesn't quite match the D850, but it's not too far off?

What comes out is that the over 50% of sales that come from the D3x00s and Rebels of the world are only about a quarter of the value of the camera market. That's really good news - we could lose them all to phones, and not lose a significant manufacturer. The problem is what do the photography students and others who are beginning, but really interested use? The cheap DSLRs (and mirrorless) serve two functions - one is taking casual pictures (kids, trips to the zoo), which is being replaced by phones. The second is that they are a GREAT way to learn serious photography. The used market will supply student cameras for a while even if the entry models go away - but there will eventually be a problem.

Will someone make a "digital K1000"? It could sit on the market foryears - the film K1000 was sold for 20 years! The 24 MP Sony APS-C sensor is good enough for a student camera never to need an upgrade. Take a D3500 (or a Rebel, or an a6000), take away some scene modes and similar fluff, and add an additional control dial so you can control aperture and shutter speed simultaneously. Ideally, use marked controls a la Fuji. Build it a little sturdier (schools are going to rent the thing to generations of students). Mirrorless or DSLR doesn't matter, although it shouldn't be viewfinderless. An X-T2 is more than it needs to be (too fast, too many controls), but is probably the closest approach on the present market. Maybe an X-T20 is really close?

If it were a fixed design, the cost of building them would go down over time...
« Last Edit: December 24, 2018, 11:56:33 am by Dan Wells »
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Mark D Segal

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #174 on: December 24, 2018, 12:00:04 pm »

One thing that's really nice about an internet forum thread is that when we feel totally overwhelmed with blather we can just de-notify, and here goes.........
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Mark D Segal (formerly MarkDS)
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #175 on: December 24, 2018, 12:22:35 pm »

One thing that's really nice about an internet forum thread is that when we feel totally overwhelmed with blather we can just de-notify, and here goes.........

The other really nice thing about Internet forum threads is you can ignore them if they are not to your likings rather than drop a useless post.

Just saying...
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #176 on: December 24, 2018, 12:29:09 pm »

Roughly what I estimated - I'd believe that number easily (I'd never seen CIPA broken down that way). Add something like 10-15% of sales representing 20-30% of value for enthusiast/pro APS-C and smaller (Fuji, D7x00, D500, EOS-80D, E-M1 mkII, GH5, etc) and less than 1% of sales, but with 3-4% of value for medium format (it used to be much lower than that, but the GFX and X1D sell much more than MF ever did before)... Note that 1% of sales represents about 10,000 cameras/ month - that's the production capacity of the D850 line. Since Nikon sells every D850 they can make right away, it's a handy benchmark - 1% ~= D850... All of medium format probably doesn't quite match the D850, but it's not too far off?

What comes out is that the over 50% of sales that come from the D3x00s and Rebels of the world are only about a quarter of the value of the camera market. That's really good news - we could lose them all to phones, and not lose a significant manufacturer. The problem is what do the photography students and others who are beginning, but really interested use? The cheap DSLRs (and mirrorless) serve two functions - one is taking casual pictures (kids, trips to the zoo), which is being replaced by phones. The second is that they are a GREAT way to learn serious photography. The used market will supply student cameras for a while even if the entry models go away - but there will eventually be a problem.

Will someone make a "digital K1000"? It could sit on the market foryears - the film K1000 was sold for 20 years! The 24 MP Sony APS-C sensor is good enough for a student camera never to need an upgrade. Take a D3500 (or a Rebel, or an a6000), take away some scene modes and similar fluff, and add an additional control dial so you can control aperture and shutter speed simultaneously. Ideally, use marked controls a la Fuji. Build it a little sturdier (schools are going to rent the thing to generations of students). Mirrorless or DSLR doesn't matter, although it shouldn't be viewfinderless. An X-T2 is more than it needs to be (too fast, too many controls), but is probably the closest approach on the present market. Maybe an X-T20 is really close?

If it were a fixed design, the cost of building them would go down over time...

Dan I think you are over analyzing things without facts. That might be fun...but can be meaningless.

One note...a 50% hit to revenue by eliminating the low end of the market is a huge hit to any manufacturer...one that could cause closure for sure.

The other issue with eliminating the low end is the rebels are stepping stones to more advanced cameras. Without a cheap stepping stone...how many customers will plunge from their phones to a $3,000 camera?
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KLaban

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #177 on: December 24, 2018, 12:34:06 pm »

War?

Here's wishing you all peace and understanding.

faberryman

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #178 on: December 24, 2018, 12:36:13 pm »

The other issue with eliminating the low end is the rebels are stepping stones to more advanced cameras. Without a cheap stepping stone...how many customers will plunge from their phones to a $3,000 camera?
I'm not sure "graduating" from an iPhone to a Rebel or Dxxx is really a path.
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #179 on: December 24, 2018, 01:48:32 pm »

I'm not sure "graduating" from an iPhone to a Rebel or Dxxx is really a path.

Price wise it sure is. I can walk into Costco today and pick up a rebel with lens for $500. If that low end camera market is wiped out...do you feel someone would plunk down $3,000 for their first camera?
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