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Author Topic: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?  (Read 52678 times)

chez

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #140 on: December 22, 2018, 03:37:06 pm »

I'm not sure your understanding is correct, however. The fact is that the camera market is saturated - too many makes and models to spread between too few incremental customers for them, so there is an intense battle over market-share, with Canon and Nikon both losing out to Sony in this niche of the photographic market place. Canon has such a diversified product slate in so many fields of imaging that as a corporation it is doing pretty well, but at this point in time I wouldn't necessarily be putting all my eggs in the camera baskets of any of these companies.

I just look at market shares where Nikon’s share has dropped substantially whereas Canon has held on much better and revenue drops again Nikon dropping almost in half the last 4 years whereas Canon not so much.

Those figures alone paint a picture.
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Mark D Segal

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #141 on: December 22, 2018, 03:55:58 pm »

I just look at market shares where Nikon’s share has dropped substantially whereas Canon has held on much better and revenue drops again Nikon dropping almost in half the last 4 years whereas Canon not so much.

Those figures alone paint a picture.

Where did you get this data? Care needed as the picture keeps changing, differs by area and by reporting source.
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Mark D Segal (formerly MarkDS)
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #142 on: December 22, 2018, 04:28:46 pm »

Where did you get this data? Care needed as the picture keeps changing, differs by area and by reporting source.

Go to the Nikon financial reports and you'll see the decline in both revenue and more importantly market share. I believe at one time Nikon had over 35% of the digital ILC market...their latest figures peg it at under 23%. Revenue has dropped even more drastically, taking at least a 50% hit from 5 years ago.

I know the market is saturated...but the decline in market share is concerning. They are getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #143 on: December 22, 2018, 04:32:54 pm »

Where did you get this data? Care needed as the picture keeps changing, differs by area and by reporting source.

I have seen several reports confirming the fact that Canon has been decreasing in volume slower than Nikon but:
1. This is mostly about APS-C bodies below 300 US$ a pop and is mostly about retailer incentivation and sales tactics (such as telling buyers that Nikon is about to go bankrupt which is a plain lie - the two people I met last year who bought low end bodies in Europe were told the exact same story in 2 different stores...)
2. It tells us nothing about the sales of the high end bodies LL shooters work with
3. This is only about the volume of new bodies sold last year and says nothing about $ value nor about what really matters which is about the total number of Canon/Nikon mount camera owned nor about the % thereof likely to see high lens value purchases. The total number of FF mount lenses sold would be a much better indicator
4. These numbers don’t reflect the reality I see around me where a majority of Nikon pro like shooters still happily shoot Nikon while 100% of former Canon shooters now shoot Sony...

Cheers,
Bernard

hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #144 on: December 22, 2018, 04:49:44 pm »

I have seen several reports confirming the fact that Canon has been decreasing in volume slower than Nikon but:
1. This is mostly about APS-C bodies below 300 US$ a pop and is mostly about retailer incentivation and sales tactics (such as telling buyers that Nikon is about to go bankrupt which is a plain lie - the two people I met last year who bought low end bodies in Europe were told the exact same story in 2 different stores...)
2. It tells us nothing about the sales of the high end bodies LL shooters work with
3. This is only about the volume of new bodies sold last year and says nothing about $ value nor about what really matters which is about the total number of Canon/Nikon mount camera owned nor about the % thereof likely to see high lens value purchases. The total number of FF mount lenses sold would be a much better indicator
4. These numbers don’t reflect the reality I see around me where a majority of Nikon pro like shooters still happily shoot Nikon while 100% of former Canon shooters now shoot Sony...

Cheers,
Bernard

Bernard, I've seen this statement from you before. Do you have any data to back any of it up?
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Mark D Segal

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #145 on: December 22, 2018, 04:52:47 pm »

Go to the Nikon financial reports and you'll see the decline in both revenue and more importantly market share. I believe at one time Nikon had over 35% of the digital ILC market...their latest figures peg it at under 23%. Revenue has dropped even more drastically, taking at least a 50% hit from 5 years ago.

I know the market is saturated...but the decline in market share is concerning. They are getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.

OK, information "straight from the horse's mouth" - that's fine, but one needs to read the financial reports comprehensively. While acknowledging the decline in the camera segment, they also point to their restructuring efforts and strategy to move into higher value added products. Their overall profitability has been pretty stable. I wouldn't be too concerned about them.
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Mark D Segal (formerly MarkDS)
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #146 on: December 22, 2018, 04:52:59 pm »

Bernard, I've seen this statement from you before. Do you have any data to back any of it up?

Which of my statements would require data to be proven true or false?

Are you disputing the fact that a large majority of DSLR sold are low end APS-C bodies?

Cheers,
Bernard

hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #147 on: December 22, 2018, 05:22:13 pm »

Which of my statements would require data to be proven true or false?

Are you disputing the fact that a large majority of DSLR sold are low end APS-C bodies?

Cheers,
Bernard

No I'm not disputing it...but you are implying Canon's market share is based on the low end consumer cameras whereas Nikon sells only high end cameras. Where are your figures for this?
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #148 on: December 22, 2018, 05:25:01 pm »

OK, information "straight from the horse's mouth" - that's fine, but one needs to read the financial reports comprehensively. While acknowledging the decline in the camera segment, they also point to their restructuring efforts and strategy to move into higher value added products. Their overall profitability has been pretty stable. I wouldn't be too concerned about them.

Didn't say I was at all concerned about them...but their definitely changing from one of the leading camera manufacturer ( once was the lead ) to quickly dropping down. I'm thinking Nikon will become a niche product manufacturer which is OK...but the statement that Canon is concerned about Nikon is far fetched.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #149 on: December 22, 2018, 05:30:40 pm »

No I'm not disputing it...but you are implying Canon's market share is based on the low end consumer cameras whereas Nikon sells only high end cameras. Where are your figures for this?

Both companies have seen an important decrease of absolute sales numbers and Nikon obviously also sells a lot more low end bodies, but I believe that the decrease of Nikon in the value segment among knowledgeable photographers has been a lot slower than Canon.

Two main sources:
1. A wide set of empirical inputs coming from people around me, the perception I get in forums,... just to give one example... you and I. You abandonned Canon in favour of Sony, I still happily shoot Nikon,
2. A pretty regular tracking of sales ranking demonstring pretty clearly that the top ranked Canon offerings overall tend to be APS-C discounted kits while Nikon tends to be better specced bodies

So unless you have evidence of the contrary, this seems to be fairly reasonable data to base an opinion on.

It appears that the Nikon Z is selling a lot better than the Canon R for now. Which isn’t surprising when you compare the equipment that has been proposed by both brands if you try to be objective.

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: December 22, 2018, 05:58:52 pm by BernardLanguillier »
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Guillermo Luijk

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #150 on: December 22, 2018, 06:00:38 pm »

Sales and customer base are often (and surprisingly to me) mixed up. It takes time for a bestselling newcomer (Sony) to become important in a market in terms of number of users (FF cameras market share). It's the same story as with a bestselling new car model; you can be number one in sales for a whole year and still see more cars from the competition older models in the streets.

I hear users claiming "Canikon are late for the FF mirrorless market". I don't think they are late at all. In fact I wonder if they came too soon to allow Sony build a sufficiently wide customer base to compete both for the lenses and future camera bodies markets.

Regards

BernardLanguillier

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #151 on: December 22, 2018, 06:06:35 pm »

Sales and customer base are often (and surprisingly to me) mixed up. It takes time for a bestselling newcomer (Sony) to become important in a market in terms of number of users (FF cameras market share). It's the same story as with a bestselling new car model; you can be number one in sales for a whole year and still see more cars from the competition older models in the streets.

Absolutely.

Which is worrying about the level of understanding of the world of many people since it would be reasonable to expect normally educated 10 years old kds to understand this difference perfectly.

Cheers,
Bernard

faberryman

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #152 on: December 22, 2018, 06:17:36 pm »

I don't see that things have changed that much. Canon came out with a mirrorless camera (EOS R) with (for all intents and purposes) the same sensor as their 5DIV and Nikon came out with a mirrorless camera (Z7) with (for all intents and purposes) the same sensor as their D850. Brand loyalty being what it is, there is no reason for either Canon or Nikon users to jump ship, so their relative market shares should remain the same. For newcomers and owners of other brands there is Sony. Too simplistic?
« Last Edit: December 22, 2018, 06:46:54 pm by faberryman »
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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #153 on: December 22, 2018, 06:43:02 pm »

Both companies have seen an important decrease of absolute sales numbers and Nikon obviously also sells a lot more low end bodies, but I believe that the decrease of Nikon in the value segment among knowledgeable photographers has been a lot slower than Canon.

Two main sources:
1. A wide set of empirical inputs coming from people around me, the perception I get in forums,... just to give one example... you and I. You abandonned Canon in favour of Sony, I still happily shoot Nikon,
2. A pretty regular tracking of sales ranking demonstring pretty clearly that the top ranked Canon offerings overall tend to be APS-C discounted kits while Nikon tends to be better specced bodies

So unless you have evidence of the contrary, this seems to be fairly reasonable data to base an opinion on.

It appears that the Nikon Z is selling a lot better than the Canon R for now. Which isn’t surprising when you compare the equipment that has been proposed by both brands if you try to be objective.

Cheers,
Bernard

Again...proof the Z is selling way better than the R. And not because your buddies use the Z...maybe some real data this time around.

The one data point I saw had the Z sales lagging by quite a bit.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #154 on: December 22, 2018, 06:59:25 pm »

Again...proof the Z is selling way better than the R. And not because your buddies use the Z...maybe some real data this time around.

The one data point I saw had the Z sales lagging by quite a bit.

Apologies, my source was a Japanese print magazine, I can’t find the data online.

But if you think the R is a successful launch that has convinced the market and a majority of Canon photographers, well... let’s just say that your opinion puts you among a small minority of observers.

Cheers,
Bernard

faberryman

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #155 on: December 22, 2018, 07:11:48 pm »

But if you think the R is a successful launch that has convinced the market and a majority of Canon photographers, well... let’s just say that your opinion puts you among a small minority of observers.
So the question is, how many Canon users have bailed for Nikon. I haven't seen too many posts to that effect here or elsewhere. But maybe they have.
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Mark D Segal

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #156 on: December 22, 2018, 07:17:41 pm »

Sales and customer base are often (and surprisingly to me) mixed up. It takes time for a bestselling newcomer (Sony) to become important in a market in terms of number of users (FF cameras market share). It's the same story as with a bestselling new car model; you can be number one in sales for a whole year and still see more cars from the competition older models in the streets.

I hear users claiming "Canikon are late for the FF mirrorless market". I don't think they are late at all. In fact I wonder if they came too soon to allow Sony build a sufficiently wide customer base to compete both for the lenses and future camera bodies markets.

Regards

A comment about this Guillermo: it's important to keep a clear distinction between stocks and flows. Looked at from a stock perspective, yes the sheer number of Canon and Nikon cameras in operation is very large compared with the newcomers - by definition that has to be true and would take some time for marked changes of market share to show up in the stock of cameras in peoples' hands. But when talk about erosion of market share, we are talking about incremental developments (the flows) - the new boys elbowing their way into the market with innovative products (e.g. mirrorless), causing an INCREMENTAL change in market share (i.e. AT THE MARGIN). I think it's pretty clear that when Sony and Fuji were introducing these innovations, Canon and Nikon were mainly focusing on variations of the conventional, so their market share slipped AT THE MARGIN. How significant and how sustained - that remains to be seen, but these companies (e.g. Sony, Fuji) have been making inroads very aggressively and their corporate strategies suggest they are planning to gain strength in digital imaging.
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Mark D Segal (formerly MarkDS)
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #157 on: December 22, 2018, 07:20:09 pm »

So the question is, how many Canon users have bailed for Nikon. I haven't seen too many posts to that effect here or elsewhere. But maybe they have.

In fact that isn’t really the most relevant question.

The questions are:
1. how many current Nikon/Canon users have decided not to go Sony based on what Nikon/Canon have demonstrated with the initial Z/R releases and roadmap. I don’t have data but I clearly feel that the Z has convinced many more Nikon shooters about Nikon’s commitment to the Z platform,
2. How many Nikon/Canon users having added a Sony body will decide to go back to their original brand.

Cheers,
Bernard

hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #158 on: December 22, 2018, 07:27:24 pm »

Apologies, my source was a Japanese print magazine, I can’t find the data online.

But if you think the R is a successful launch that has convinced the market and a majority of Canon photographers, well... let’s just say that your opinion puts you among a small minority of observers.

Cheers,
Bernard

Here's what I found. Looks to me like the R is more successful from a sales perspective than the Z.

https://nikonrumors.com/2018/11/07/the-latest-full-frame-market-mirrorless-market-share-sony-67-canon-22-1-nikon-10-4.aspx/




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hogloff

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Re: Mirrorless war - Canon vs Nikon - who is the current winner?
« Reply #159 on: December 22, 2018, 07:30:22 pm »

A comment about this Guillermo: it's important to keep a clear distinction between stocks and flows. Looked at from a stock perspective, yes the sheer number of Canon and Nikon cameras in operation is very large compared with the newcomers - by definition that has to be true and would take some time for marked changes of market share to show up in the stock of cameras in peoples' hands. But when talk about erosion of market share, we are talking about incremental developments (the flows) - the new boys elbowing their way into the market with innovative products (e.g. mirrorless), causing an INCREMENTAL change in market share (i.e. AT THE MARGIN). I think it's pretty clear that when Sony and Fuji were introducing these innovations, Canon and Nikon were mainly focusing on variations of the conventional, so their market share slipped AT THE MARGIN. How significant and how sustained - that remains to be seen, but these companies (e.g. Sony, Fuji) have been making inroads very aggressively and their corporate strategies suggest they are planning to gain strength in digital imaging.

Mark you are exactly right. The market share gives you a "today view" of how respective cameras are selling. With Nikon's market share declining by almost 1/2 from its heydays...that is significant.
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