free trade deal between the EU and Japan

[Alan Klein]

Bart, I don't understand your point. Is the EU and Junker going to negotiate in good faith or not?

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Bart, I don't understand your point. Is the EU and Junker going to negotiate in good faith or not?

Is Trump?

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

Is Trump?

Cheers,
Bart

Yes.  Trump will.  But you didn't answer the same question I asked about your side.  If Junker is just playing Trump as you said, that means he's not serious about making a deal.  Just stalling for time.  So, please answer my question.  Is the EU going to negotiate in good faith on a timely basis? 

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Yes.  Trump will.  But you didn't answer the same question I asked about your side.  If Junker is just playing Trump as you said, that means he's not serious about making a deal.  Just stalling for time.  So, please answer my question.  Is the EU going to negotiate in good faith on a timely basis?

Alan,

I have difficulty with using the words 'good faith' and 'Trump' in the same line. Besides the obvious reason that Trump just as easily breaks deals as he 'makes' them (think Paris Acord, Iran), but it also has little to do with faith. Forging International Trade Deals is a job for experienced grown-ups.

Another reason that makes it difficult to make a deal with the USA is that one of the principles of the EU is that they only make deals with signatories of the Paris Agreements. Another complicating factor (and I know Trump hates things that cannot be put in one single page with pictures) is that the EU, or rather the EFTA (which is not the same, but they work in parallel), operates on a global market of supply and demand, and with an exchange of know-how on safety and environmental impact.

It is also not a guarantee that individual companies (and they don't follow orders from the EFTA, but freely operate within the boundaries given), will buy from a given supplier/country. So, as an example, they will buy Soybeans in the USA when they are cheaper there, and they will buy them in South America when the prices are better there. As long as things like food safety and environmental impact are protected.

Another example that shows how naive the rhetoric from the USA is, is in import tariffs on Metals. Now there is a recent tariff of 25 % on Metals from Europe entering the USA. This should give US producers a better competitive edge. But some metal parts can e.g. only be produced in the EU, because the US manufacturers do not wish to spend 5-10 years on research for a product that already is available and is meeting their needs (and the price used to be fair, before the new tariffs). So now, it's the US producers without an alternative local source, that are forced to buy at an artificially raised price, and either lower their profitability or let the consumers pay for the artificial cost. What's worse, the prices for European metals were not damaging the US economy, but the tariffs are used by Trump to bully the rest of the world into accepting his demands. That's not how deals with reciprocal benefits are made.

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

Alan,

I have difficulty with using the words 'good faith' and 'Trump' in the same line. Besides the obvious reason that Trump just as easily breaks deals as he 'makes' them (think Paris Acord, Iran), but it also has little to do with faith. Forging International Trade Deals is a job for experienced grown-ups.

Another reason that makes it difficult to make a deal with the USA is that one of the principles of the EU is that they only make deals with signatories of the Paris Agreements. Another complicating factor (and I know Trump hates things that cannot be put in one single page with pictures) is that the EU, or rather the EFTA (which is not the same, but they work in parallel), operates on a global market of supply and demand, and with an exchange of know-how on safety and environmental impact.

It is also not a guarantee that individual companies (and they don't follow orders from the EFTA, but freely operate within the boundaries given), will buy from a given supplier/country. So, as an example, they will buy Soybeans in the USA when they are cheaper there, and they will buy them in South America when the prices are better there. As long as things like food safety and environmental impact are protected.

Another example that shows how naive the rhetoric from the USA is, is in import tariffs on Metals. Now there is a recent tariff of 25 % on Metals from Europe entering the USA. This should give US producers a better competitive edge. But some metal parts can e.g. only be produced in the EU, because the US manufacturers do not wish to spend 5-10 years on research for a product that already is available and is meeting their needs (and the price used to be fair, before the new tariffs). So now, it's the US producers without an alternative local source, that are forced to buy at an artificially raised price, and either lower their profitability or let the consumers pay for the artificial cost. What's worse, the prices for European metals were not damaging the US economy, but the tariffs are used by Trump to bully the rest of the world into accepting his demands. That's not how deals with reciprocal benefits are made.

Cheers,
Bart

So your answer is "No", Junker is not operating in good faith.  If true, Trump will apply a 20% tariff on German cars. 

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

So your answer is "No", Junker is not operating in good faith.  If true, Trump will apply a 20% tariff on German cars.

If you say so.

What goes around comes around, so the reaction depends on what Trump actually does. So far European 'rebalancing' measures have been relatively mild (unless your livelihood depends on producing and selling bourbon, Levi's jeans, or Harleys, to name a few).

Here's the full list of products affected by the 'rebalancing':
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2018/may/tradoc_156909.pdf

Nobody gains, and consumers pay the price.

BTW, German cars fall under the same regime as French cars, or those made in the UK, or Italy, or other European countries. So the 'rebalancing' will be proportional. Given the volume of imports of European and Chinese goods, things are going to get expensive in the USA.

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

If you say so.

What goes around comes around, so the reaction depends on what Trump actually does. So far European 'rebalancing' measures have been relatively mild (unless your livelihood depends on producing and selling bourbon, Levi's jeans, or Harleys, to name a few).

Here's the full list of products affected by the 'rebalancing':
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2018/may/tradoc_156909.pdf

Nobody gains, and consumers pay the price.

BTW, German cars fall under the same regime as French cars, or those made in the UK, or Italy, or other European countries. So the 'rebalancing' will be proportional. Given the volume of imports of European and Chinese goods, things are going to get expensive in the USA.

Cheers,
Bart

Bart, I only asked if Junker intended to negotiate in good faith.  Your response was an insult about my president and giving me every excuse why Junker shouldn't negotiate in good faith.  I sure hope Junker isn't thinking like you are.  I doubt if he is. Otherwise, there will never be a deal.  If he's only stalling to wait for let's say the American midterms to put pressure on Trump, that would be a mistake.  He'll slap a 20% tariff on EU cars the day before the elections just to make a point.  He's not afraid. 

Regarding the economic and trade issues you mention as an impediment to a deal, that's why there are negotiations.  They have to work out the details.  Obviously there will have to be compromise on both sides.  This isn't the first deal Trump or Junker have ever done, I'm sure. 

[stamper]

Anyone who is not afraid is dangerous. Being afraid is normal which Trump isn't.

[Alan Klein]

Anyone who is not afraid is dangerous. Being afraid is normal which Trump isn't.

If Trump is afraid to put a 20% tariff on German cars, then the negotiations are over before they start. No one wants to negotiate from a position of weakness.

In any case, I think Bart is wrong. Junker came to the US to negotiate a deal. I don't think he's going to play games. Sure, he'll negotiate the best deal you can get for the EU. That's normal. But I don't think he's gaming Trump not to negotiate a deal at all. That would be very foolish on Europe's part.

[degrub]

i think Junker came to the US so that Trump could show the appearance of winning. Important for Trump's politics and ego, for sure. But an accomplishment ? ... maybe only a baby step back to where negotiations stopped before. So we can restart the process and Trump can move on to the next episode of "Deal".

[Rob C]

If Trump is afraid to put a 20% tariff on German cars, then the negotiations are over before they start. No one wants to negotiate from a position of weakness.

In any case, I think Bart is wrong. Junker came to the US to negotiate a deal. I don't think he's going to play games. Sure, he'll negotiate the best deal you can get for the EU. That's normal. But I don't think he's gaming Trump not to negotiate a deal at all. That would be very foolish on Europe's part.

Ever come across the concept of pyrrhic victories?

Stamper is right: a guy without fear is a guy to fear. But then, I don't think Mr T is without fear: I think he's full of it, and to the level of paranoia.

But then, living in a dream protects one, right until the moment that bloody alarm rings for real.

Rob

[stamper]

When someone is a one man band then there are no checks and balances in place. Pence looks like a nodding dog. Bolton is to the right of Trump Where the **** is the democracy?

[Alan Goldhammer]

Ever come across the concept of pyrrhic victories?

Stamper is right: a guy without fear is a guy to fear. But then, I don't think Mr T is without fear: I think he's full of it, and to the level of paranoia.

But then, living in a dream protects one, right until the moment that bloody alarm rings for real.

Rob

The real Mr. T is without fear

[Alan Klein]

The real Mr. T is without fear

You know, Trump even looks like him except for the hands.

[Alan Goldhammer]

You know, Trump even looks like him except for the hands.

I think that Trump wore a lot of gold jewelry in the 1970s when he was a disco king.

[Alan Klein]

i think Junker came to the US so that Trump could show the appearance of winning. Important for Trump's politics and ego, for sure. But an accomplishment ? ... maybe only a baby step back to where negotiations stopped before. So we can restart the process and Trump can move on to the next episode of "Deal".

Politics is theatre.  And all leaders are egotists.  You have to be one to want to be the bigshot.  So Trump feted Xi and Abe in Maralago, and cozied up to Putin and Kim.  And Junker offered to buy all the soybeans.  It's a fine gesture that Trump responded to.  So now they'll negotiate.  Trump wanted to start from  a position of strength by already having applied some tariffs rather than from weakness like Obama did.  As an American I'd rather have Trump the dealmaker than Obama.  In any case, it was Trump's' methods that got Junker here just like he was able to start a conversation with Kim.  Obama couldn't anything going in NK. 

Let's be hopeful.  A good settlement where both sides win is a benefit to everyone.  Then both sides can combine and face off the Chinese who are the main problem.