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Author Topic: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.  (Read 153095 times)

Rob C

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #440 on: May 27, 2018, 03:41:28 pm »

Rob, I've been in a couple falling aircraft. Fortunately they didn't fall all the way. But I can tell you that panic keeps you from thinking about God or anything else except getting the aircraft under control.

Indeed, if you are doing the driving flying! Just sitting there in the back of it (with a hostess on your lap to distract, if lucky) is another scene, easily replicable in the passenger seat of a car driven by an idiot.

;-)

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #441 on: May 27, 2018, 06:49:13 pm »

Alan - you are really posting a bunch of nonsense.   As  Bart noted the flooding was disastrous and there won't be any positive results.   It's like saying all the rain from last year's Texas hurricane was a good thing!!

I will leave it up to Bart to respond to n further posts on this thread.   It's just not  worth the time for me  to continue punting or what is science and what is myth.   I'm sure  this thread  will eventually peter  out and rise again like a phoenix.

If the cyclone was caused by global warming as you and Bart are implying, then that area is due to get rain at other times that it would not have gotten before Global Warming.  That new rainfall will be more moderate most of the time so that the land will benefit from it.   Storms are outliers.  It's what's going on the rest of the time that mostly matters. 

Even storms have their benefits.  I remember a time in the New York area when we had a drought.  All sorts of conservation was instituted.  Along came a hurricane that refilled NYC reservoirs and ended a multi-year emergence.  Something similar happened in the west recently when snow storms and devastating floods ended their drought to reasonable levels.  Water, seemingly too much at times, has its benefits.  But you don't want to acknowledge it because it goes against your global warming theories. 
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/10/california-water-use-continues-to-increase-as-conservation-declines/

Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #442 on: May 27, 2018, 10:50:12 pm »

Evidence, the 3 year amount of rain that fell in 1 day in Oman supports the hypothesis that the amounts of extreme precipitation will increase due to the larger capacity of warmer air to hold moisture.

Crikey! Any increase in rainfall in arid regions should be welcomed. However, the devastation caused by storms, the destruction of lives and property, should be addressed.

I guess I'll have to repeat the same points I've made previously on this issue of extreme weather events.

I live in Australia, which is well known as 'the land of floods and droughts', so I'm familiar with the way the media reports on every major flood or drought as being the worst on record, and is presented as evidence to support the negative consequences of man-made global warming.

I suspect that most people will just accept what the media presents, possibly because they don't have the time, and in some cases the nous and curiosity, to do their own investigation.

This current storm and flooding in Oman is a typical example of the problem of the unscientific attribution of a particular storm to 'man-made' global warming, and the unscientific use of the event to support the argument that floods and droughts are getting worse, globally.

Because I'm curious and unbiased, and place great importance on substantiated facts, I've just done an internet search of the recorded history of storms and flooding in the Oman region.

Wikipedia has addressed the issue. What might appear to be the worst storm in the Oman general area occurred on June 6th 2007.  However, there was also a major storm in 1890 which resulted in 757 deaths. Who knows how devastating the storms were that occurred before this record that does not go earlier than 1881.

"The 1890 Storm
After entering the Gulf of Oman, a cyclone struck Sohar in northeastern Oman after passing just northeast of Muscat, where it washed ships ashore. There, the storm dropped 286 mm (11.3 in) of rainfall over 24 hours, the highest daily precipitation total in the nation's history. High winds wrecked many houses, and about 50 people died in Muscat and nearby Muttrah. Inland flooding downed thousands of date palm trees and inundated valleys. Nationally, the storm killed at least 757 people."


But what is very revealing, is the regularity of storms in this area, from 1881 to the present. The obvious question is, why have people not secured themselves against the almost certain repetition of previous storms?

If a storm blows down palm trees which flatten your house, then a very obvious lesson should be learned. Don't plant palm trees within falling distance of your house.

If your roof blows off, without the effect of falling palm trees, then make sure you have a strengthened roof that can resist the force of previous storms in your area.

The following Wikipedia article lists about 60 storm events in the Oman region from 1881 to the present. That's an average of one storm every 2 to 3 years, although not all of them were devastating of course.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arabian_Peninsula_tropical_cyclones#Pre-1900

Increasing rainfall plus increasing CO2 levels should help to provide food security for the increasing population of mankind, and help the growth of newly planted forests to increase biodiversity and perhaps even stabilize the climate in certain areas.

The real tragedy is that we don't seem to have the political nous and commonsense to capitalize and exploit the benefits of rising CO2 levels, a warmer climate, and increased rainfall, and use our energy resources to protect our citizens from the recurrence of the known extreme weather events that have occurred regularly in the past.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #443 on: May 27, 2018, 11:00:13 pm »

I am more and more appalled by this religious treatment of people involed in scientific fields. Even the term “scientists” is increadibly nonchalant, as it lumps everyone into one single, uber-human category.

See where I am going with this? Scientists are human. They, just as doctors, or any other profession, can be good and can be bad, highly conscientious or downright evil. Cheating, falsifying, chasing money, wheather for themselves or research.

That's why science isn't believed till it's replicated and thought over by many different people.

Your statements on science are off the wall. What happened? Did you ask a researcher out on a date and she refused?
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #444 on: May 27, 2018, 11:08:10 pm »

It's the people who blindly follow so-called scientific theories that are the sheeple.  It's harder to go against a trend and be an independent thinker and have abuse dumped on you.   It's easier to quote some journal to prove how smart you are to other people.

A lot of people confuse contrarianism with skepticism. If you are going to be a skeptic, you'd better have good science to back up your point of view.

This reminds of a conversation I had years ago in a previous life. I was describing the basic concepts of special relativity to someone who had asked me about the topic. When I was done, he replied, "Nope, I don't buy it."
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #445 on: May 27, 2018, 11:49:48 pm »

The global warming situation is alarming. This year, in Newfoundland, the place which almost every year guaranteed a good spring crop of icebergs, they observed a 80% collapse of the precious commodity. In other words, that's about twice as high as percentage of US voters strongly disapproving Trump's presidency (40% according to latest Rasmussen poll). Or only 1% of the 1,000 icy bergs floating by the NL coast in 2017.

Quote
Robert Bartlett, the owner and operator of whale watching and iceberg tour company Trinity Eco-Tours, says he's seen fewer than 10 icebergs since the province's prime iceberg season kicked off at the start of May. He says in previous years he'd have seen 40 to 50 by now.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/slow-start-to-iceberg-season-1.4679823

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_may25
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #446 on: May 28, 2018, 12:52:21 am »

A lot of people confuse contrarianism with skepticism. If you are going to be a skeptic, you'd better have good science to back up your point of view.

This reminds of a conversation I had years ago in a previous life. I was describing the basic concepts of special relativity to someone who had asked me about the topic. When I was done, he replied, "Nope, I don't buy it."
I'm 73.  I trust my gut and instincts more than the bias in what I often read.  I take everything with a grain of salt.  The whole global warming thing seems hyped. 

Even if true, I'm not convinced a couple of degrees are worse than what we have now.    Who says that it just happens that the temperature as was around 150 years ago is the best possible condition in the millions of years man and nature have been around?  That belief takes a huge amount of hubris.  Especially when man has multiplied as have other species and the world seems more full as it's gotten warmer since the ice started melting 12000 years ago when the last ice age ended.  Where I live in New Jersey, deer ticks are multiplying like crazy because of warmer winters.  That means deer and field mice populations are growing.  They're building all kinds of new housing developments where I live (aargh) which tells me people populations are expanding.  There's more farming going on.  More vegetation.  Etc.  Who's getting hurt?  Even the polar bears seem to be doing fairly well despite the hype.  So rich people will have to build their shore homes on stilts?  I'm not particularly worried.  Sure, some peoples will have major impact as they have by climate since civilization began.  Less Canadians will visit Florida in winter hurting the economic situation down there.  But overall, I don't think warming will have a baleful effect.  It's much ado about little. 
« Last Edit: May 28, 2018, 12:55:50 am by Alan Klein »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #447 on: May 28, 2018, 04:02:55 am »

This reminds of a conversation I had years ago in a previous life. I was describing the basic concepts of special relativity to someone who had asked me about the topic. When I was done, he replied, "Nope, I don't buy it."

Which reminds me of Nicolas Roeg's 1985 movie, "Insignificance", where there is a scene where Marilyn Monroe explains it to Albert Einstein ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS0n_fr1Fyo

Cheers,
Bart
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #448 on: May 28, 2018, 09:05:39 am »

... Your statements on science are off the wall...

Care to actually quote my statements on science that are off the wall? That scientists are human, perhaps? Sure, if you think they are demigods.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #449 on: May 28, 2018, 09:49:45 am »

I'm 73.  I trust my gut and instincts more than the bias in what I often read.

This is risky and history is not on your side. If we only trust what we see and feel, we'd still think the earth was flat and we would not know about viruses and bacteria. That's why humans have embarked on a path of collecting data and analyzing it, it has served us well.

If, as the data collected so far seems to indicate, human activity is perturbing planetary systems, we would irresponsible NOT to study this. What reason is there not to?

The attitudes I am seeing here are puzzling. Some say the entire field of study is a waste of time and money, seemingly based on an assumption that there is nothing to find. Others regard scientific exploration itself as suspect, despite a long history of EXACTLY the opposite being true. What are people afraid of?
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #450 on: May 28, 2018, 10:02:44 am »

I haven't seen anybody say the field of study is a waste of time. What I've seen is people pointing out that we don't yet and may never have the tools we need to predict long term climate patterns. Nobody's ignoring science. What we're pointing out is that the science changes fairly rapidly. As I've pointed out several times, when I was at University of Michigan in the early fifties, a new ice age was imminent. Now we're about to burn up from global warming if we don't first drown in epeiric seas. Yet it's well known, even by "scientists" that: (1) the algorithms we're using to make our predictions are wild guesses at best, and (2) the data we're feeding into those algorithms are questionable at best. As a result, the beautiful charts we see posted here, demonstrating beyond the shadow of a doubt that we're doomed and ought to go hide under the bed are bullshit made beautiful by political artifice.

Oh, and Robert, you seem to have missed Alan's word: "bias."
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #451 on: May 28, 2018, 11:03:01 am »

This is risky and history is not on your side. If we only trust what we see and feel, we'd still think the earth was flat and we would not know about viruses and bacteria. That's why humans have embarked on a path of collecting data and analyzing it, it has served us well.

If, as the data collected so far seems to indicate, human activity is perturbing planetary systems, we would irresponsible NOT to study this. What reason is there not to?

The attitudes I am seeing here are puzzling. Some say the entire field of study is a waste of time and money, seemingly based on an assumption that there is nothing to find. Others regard scientific exploration itself as suspect, despite a long history of EXACTLY the opposite being true. What are people afraid of?

As Russ pointed out in the last post, I'd rather trust my gut than what appears to be biased reporting.  I'm not a flat earther.  I'm a design engineer with a love for science, discovery, and nature.

Recently, I had (have) a medical issue where the pulmonologists and the radiologists are at complete odds as to what's wrong with me.  How could it be that brilliant doctors who went to college, medical school, interned and did their residence and currently are afiliated with the finest hospitals (NY Columbia Presbyterian and Boston's Mass General)and medical schools (Columbia and Harvard) in NYC and Boston cannot agree on what's wrong or what to do.  After all, they're all looking at the same tests and CT scans and have access to all the current theories and research.  Yet, I'm the one who's left to make a decision as to which doctors are right and who's wrong and what path to take.  It's been enormously stressful.  I'm left with my gut to tell me what to do with no guarentees I will be right.  Yet, we all are to believe that all the climate science is in.  All the research has been done.  There's no reversing what many are saying about global warming.  That warming has to all be negative even if that is where we're going. 

How many times in my life have I seen research overturned with more current research?  Scientists and researchers and brilliant people are also not immuned from the band-wagon effect.  We all tend to believe the last thing we read.  If takes guts to take a contrarian position espoecially if you're a scientist who might be criticized by others in your field. 


I like to keep an open mind.  Also, I am very suspicious when others want me to spend my money on their favorite projects. 


 

LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #452 on: May 28, 2018, 11:19:18 am »

Recently, I had (have) a medical issue where the pulmonologists and the radiologists are at complete odds as to what's wrong with me.  How could it be that brilliant doctors who went to college, medical school, interned and did their residence and currently are afiliated with the finest hospitals (NY Columbia Presbyterian and Boston's Mass General)and medical schools (Columbia and Harvard) in NYC and Boston cannot agree on what's wrong or what to do.  After all, they're all looking at the same tests and CT scans and have access to all the current theories and research.  Yet, I'm the one who's left to make a decision as to which doctors are right and who's wrong and what path to take.  It's been enormously stressful.  I'm left with my gut to tell me what to do with no guarentees I will be right. Yet, we all are to believe that all the climate science is in.  All the research has been done.  There's no reversing what many are saying about global warming.  That warming has to all be negative even if that is where we're going. 

Alan, when it comes to practising doctors, I fully agree with you. There are some outstanding physicians and briliant surgeons out there, but unfortunately when it comes to reasoning, analysis, and acceptance of new medical developments, most doctors (at least in my experience) fare rather poorly. Add to it the fear of malpractice suites and following blindly outdated advice from the medical, dietary and dental associations, it's not suprising that medical errors are the third leading cause of deaths in USA.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #453 on: May 28, 2018, 11:37:49 am »

Alan, when it comes to practising doctors, I fully agree with you. There are some outstanding physicians and briliant surgeons out there, but unfortunately when it comes to reasoning, analysis, and acceptance of new medical developments, most doctors (at least in my experience) fare rather poorly. Add to it the fear of malpractice suites and following blindly outdated advice from the medical, dietary and dental associations, it's not suprising that medical errors are the third leading cause of deaths in USA.

It's scary isn't it?  We might be better off with a witch doctor or a shaman. I should pray more.  :)

The issue in my case is that the doctors are interpreting the same data differently. Each is concluding the CT scans to mean something different.  Of course, there's room for different interpretations.  No science is exact.  But that's true about climate science as well.  Especially when you're trying to look decades into the future with data that is questionable or not complete or with factors who's effects are unknown and therefore cannot be incorporated into current theories and models. 

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #454 on: May 28, 2018, 11:48:32 am »

The solution, Alan, is simple: don’t ask for a second opinion. I’m sure Robert doesn’t. After all, what doctors practice is science, and we all know (thanks, Bart!) the science is settled, with a 97% consensus, why bother with a second opinion? Robert probably simply needs to know if the doctor is anti-Trump to trust his life to him.
 ;)

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #455 on: May 28, 2018, 12:08:30 pm »

The solution, Alan, is simple: don’t ask for a second opinion. I’m sure Robert doesn’t. After all, what doctors practice is science, and we all know (thanks, Bart!) the science is settled, with a 97% consensus, why bother with a second opinion? Robert probably simply needs to know if the doctor is anti-Trump to trust his life to him.
 ;)
My MD who is certified in both internal medicine and  endocrinologist is an excellent diagnostician and I've been going to him for about 35 years.   He is a very conservative Republican and voted for Trump.   We don't talk politics.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #456 on: May 28, 2018, 01:06:30 pm »

My MD who is certified in both internal medicine and  endocrinologist is an excellent diagnostician and I've been going to him for about 35 years.   He is a very conservative Republican and voted for Trump.   We don't talk politics.
Which reminds me when Republican President Reagan got shot.   As he entered the operating room, he asked the surgeon: “Please tell me you’re a Republican.”

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #457 on: May 28, 2018, 01:13:13 pm »

My MD who is certified in both internal medicine and  endocrinologist is an excellent diagnostician and I've been going to him for about 35 years.   He is a very conservative Republican and voted for Trump.   We don't talk politics.
My wife's doctor is an endocrinologist and internal  medical doctor too.  He's also a terrific diagnostician who saved my sister's life finding out she had a rare disease just based on a hunch he had.  A kind of guy who thinks out-of-the-box.  Most people, including doctors, and climatologists, tend to follow protocols developed.  They put everyone and everything in the same box.    Since they average everything, they get average results.  You might as well see a computer. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #458 on: May 28, 2018, 01:25:30 pm »

The solution, Alan, is simple: don’t ask for a second opinion. I’m sure Robert doesn’t. After all, what doctors practice is science, and we all know (thanks, Bart!) the science is settled, with a 97% consensus, why bother with a second opinion?

I'm disappointed, but not surprised. If you think that (I presume medical) doctors practice science, a reasonable discussion becomes impossible.

Cheers,
Bart
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #459 on: May 28, 2018, 01:33:12 pm »

OMG! It is witchcraft then!? My worst suspicions just got confirmed.
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