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Author Topic: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.  (Read 152827 times)

RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #180 on: May 06, 2018, 11:08:16 am »

One way or another, Russ. According to NASA, most methane from cattle comes from cow burps rather than farts.

That's strange. I thought NASA stood for National Aeronautics and Space Administration. What do they know about cow burps and farts? Why would they want to know?
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #181 on: May 06, 2018, 11:27:36 am »

Maybe them want to use them in aeronautics experiments. Or for space craft propulsion.

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NASA-sponsored study shows that global methane emissions produced by livestock are 11 percent higher than estimates made last decade. Because methane is a particularly nasty greenhouse gas, the new finding means it’s going to be even tougher to combat climate change than we realized.

There are approximately 1.5 billion cows on the planet, each and every one of them expelling upwards of 30 to 50 gallons of methane each day. We typically think of farts as being the culprit, but belches are actually the primary source of cattle-produced methane, accounting for 95 percent of the problematic greenhouse gas.

https://gizmodo.com/we-ve-grossly-underestimated-how-much-cow-farts-are-con-1818993089
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #182 on: May 06, 2018, 11:33:36 am »

Well it's obvious then that we need to get them to fart more and belch less. Getting the belches under control might save the planet. I still don't understand why NASA is involved in cow belches and farts. I'm a taxpayer, so I'd really like an answer to that question.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #183 on: May 06, 2018, 11:41:41 am »

Question for both, Bart and Ray. Since we know that methane has a warming potential that is significantly higher than carbon dioxide, why nobody is talking about methane?

Hi Les,

Indeed, Methane is an even more potent absorber of heat, but there is much less of it compared to Watervapor, and to CO2.

What we need to look at instead, is the so-called Radiative Forcing that these gasses cause, in combination, and over time. Radiative Forcing is how much incoming solar radiation is absorbed versus absorption of longer wavelength earth heat emissions. If they trap more outgoing heat (earth emissions) than incoming (solar) heat, it's called 'positive' Radiative Forcing.

The simplest way to explain is with an image ;) Attached is a graph that shows their net Forcings as it was, and as it's projected to be for the coming years. CO2 is the dominant one, with Methane a good second. If you want to dive deep into the underlying calculations:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071930

So yes, by also acting on Methane emissions, there is lots of progress to be made, but CO2 levels remain the dominant driving factor, in fact its dominance is increasing rapidly. And CO2 remains in the atmosphere for a long period of time, so it accumulates more over time.

I've also added a chart with a historical overview of various other Radiative Forcings, positive and negative, to put things into perspective.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: May 06, 2018, 11:57:59 am by BartvanderWolf »
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #184 on: May 06, 2018, 02:25:40 pm »

Question for both, Bart and Ray. Since we know that methane has a warming potential that is significantly higher than carbon dioxide, why nobody is talking about methane?

Well it appears the NASA has, Les. Evidently they've been working overtime to sniff out farting cows.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #185 on: May 06, 2018, 06:44:09 pm »

Notwithstanding the smell, it makes some sense.
Currently there are two Methane fueled liquid rocket engines under development in the United States, the Raptor by SpaceX and the BE-4 by Blue Origin.
Methane is denser than many other gases and when used in combination with LOX (methalox) as a propellant it provides a lot of benefits over traditional hydrogen+LOX (hydralox) launch systems. Methane can be compressed into smaller cylinders resulting in lighter rockets and is also more stable in space over long periods of time vs hydrolox.

Methane can be also manufactured on Mars. Not by cows, but by the Sabatier process that involves the reaction of hydrogen with carbon dioxide at elevated temperatures (optimally 300–400 °C) and pressures in the presence of a nickel catalyst to produce methane and water.
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Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #186 on: May 08, 2018, 03:34:32 am »

And then there is the issue of injustice. The brunt of the negative consequences will be carried by the poorest parts of the world, those who do not have the financial capacity to build defenses against, or repair damages from, the negative climate effects. The ones who are causing the issues will also be hurt but, to a point, they can allocate increasing amounts of money to do damage control. It will be cheaper to spend money on prevention, than a lot more money on curative measures, again and again.

Okay, Bart, I'll continue with the rational debunking of your previous post, hoping this is not too long.  ;)

This issue raises another fundamental aspect of all human activity, which many economists seem to ignore, as well as climate-change alarmists. Even Slobodan, who seems quite intelligent and appears to have some understanding of economics, seems unable to grasp the point.  ;)

Our entire structure of modern civilization is built upon energy supplies, and the intelligent use of those energy supplies.
Ape-like creatures millions of years ago, gradually evolved into humans by sourcing energy (food) more efficiently. They began hunting and eating meat, instead of just plucking berries and fruit from the trees. They gained a larger supply of food and got a surge of nutrients which helped in the development of the larger human brain.
Check out the following link.  https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120420105539.htm

"Carnivory is behind the evolutionary success of humankind. When early humans started to eat meat and eventually hunt, their new, higher-quality diet meant that women could wean their children earlier. Women could then give birth to more children during their reproductive life, which is a possible contribution to the population gradually spreading over the world. The connection between eating meat and a faster weaning process is shown by a research group from Sweden, which compared close to 70 mammalian species and found clear patterns."

"Learning to hunt was a decisive step in human evolution. Hunting necessitated communication, planning and the use of tools, all of which demanded a larger brain. At the same time, adding meat to the diet made it possible to develop this larger brain."


It is true that poor people who live in flimsy shacks are more vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events. However, the point you seem to be missing is that they would still be vulnerable to extreme weather events after we had spent trillions of dollars in reducing CO2 levels with alternative, more expensive, energy supplies, unless you believe that all extreme weather events are caused by elevated CO2 levels.

If you believe that, then there's little point in continuing the discussion. The historical record shows without doubt that extreme weather events have been a regular occurrence in the past, and that there have been past civilizations that have been destroyed by very sudden changes in climate which are not correlated to changes in CO2 levels. The Khmer civilization at Angkor Wat, Cambodia, is just one example.

Poor people are energy-starved people. As the cost of energy rises, poverty increases, unless there is a major political change in the distribution of wealth (energy).

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Here's another interesting summary of what we are discussing:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/if-carbon-dioxide-makes-u/   

Let's examine the major points in that article.

1. "Nitrogen, oxygen and argon together comprise more than 99 percent of the atmosphere.
The heating effect of extra carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and many other minor gases can be calculated with confidence based on the absorption properties that have been measured carefully in the laboratory."


Wow! I didn't know that. Ah! I see that's not true, as I read further.  ;)

"Currently, the total heating produced by the increases of all long-lived greenhouse gases (excluding water vapor) since preindustrial times is equal to about 1 percent of all solar radiation absorbed at the surface. The effect would be somewhat similar if the sun had started to shine 1 percent more brightly during the 20th century."

Water vapor is excluded from the above calculation because it is an intimate and highly variable part of the climate system itself in the form of clouds, rain, snow and other weather. "


What the article failed to mention is that water vapour is, by far, the most significant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.


From NOAA, which is a fairly reliable source of information, wouldn't you agree?

"As the temperature of the atmosphere rises, more water is evaporated from ground storage (rivers, oceans, reservoirs, soil). Because the air is warmer, the absolute humidity can be higher (in essence, the air is able to 'hold' more water when it's warmer), leading to more water vapor in the atmosphere.

As a greenhouse gas, the higher concentration of water vapor is then able to absorb more thermal IR energy radiated from the Earth, thus further warming the atmosphere. The warmer atmosphere can then hold more water vapor and so on and so on. This is referred to as a 'positive feedback loop'.

However, huge scientific uncertainty exists in defining the extent and importance of this feedback loop. As water vapor increases in the atmosphere, more of it will eventually also condense into clouds, which are more able to reflect incoming solar radiation (thus allowing less energy to reach the Earth's surface and heat it up). The future monitoring of atmospheric processes involving water vapor will be critical to fully understand the feedbacks in the climate system leading to global climate change. As yet, though the basics of the hydrological cycle are fairly well understood, we have very little comprehension of the complexity of the feedback loops.


Have you got it yet, Bart, or do I have to go on and on and on?  ;D
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #187 on: May 08, 2018, 07:50:22 am »

Question for both, Bart and Ray. Since we know that methane has a warming potential that is significantly higher than carbon dioxide, why nobody is talking about methane?

There is nothing new about this issue. 

Methane has long been recognized as a Greenhouse gas and there are numerous publications on sources of methane and its impact.  A long while ago when I was doing some work on bovine growth hormone (1985), EPA published a paper supporting the use of the hormone as a way of reducing methane emission from cows.  the hormone promotes both milk production and weight gain so fewer cattle would be needed for dairy and meat production, thus reducing the methane impact from this source.  I used this reference in a policy paper I was writing at that time at the trade association where I worked.
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #188 on: May 08, 2018, 08:15:22 am »

Great, Alan. But did you check to make sure fatter cows don't fart more? The whole thing is ridiculous, and what really hurts is that my taxes are going to study cow burps and farts.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #189 on: May 08, 2018, 09:28:10 am »

Never mind the increase in farts, but I doubt that the quantitative increase in milk and weight gain resulting from hormone growth would retain the quality of the "organic" feeding methods.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #190 on: May 08, 2018, 03:45:21 pm »

Why is it time? I agree there's an overwhelming quantity of evidence. However, I'm concerned with the quality of the evidence. By quality, I mean evidence that conforms to those fundamental requirements of the methodology of science, which, in order for certainty to be achieved, necessitates experimentation over the relevant periods of time, under controlled conditions where just one variable can be changed in order to observe the role and influence of that one variable, such as CO2, on the rest of the very complex system.

So what are you trying to say; that scientists do not know how to do their research, or that you know better?

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I can find no sensible reason to deduce that food crops will fail due to a very gradual rise in CO2 levels, which is why I don't mention it. Modern agriculture uses pesticides to deter insects, and chemicals such as Glyphosate to control weeds.

Yes, Glyphosate kills pests, and also a slew of useful insects.

As for the effects of CO2 on Food security:
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4bae/439a64aee8498260a768a4938affe9828769.pdf

I know, it's dated a bit, but that is also indicative that this subject is rather underexposed in research, and thus with the general public.

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Regarding the possible failure of crops due to drought and extreme weather events, we've been through this before.

Yes, but apparently you do not agree with the conclusions of scientists. No surprise there, just an observation.

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Water vapor in total is a much more significant 'Greenhouse' gas than CO2 and Methane combined. If water vapor did not form clouds, we'd all be stuffed. Fortunately it does form clouds, which are very small water droplets. As the water droplets get larger, they begin to fall as rain.

No it is not more significant, and what's more, water vapor is short lived and rains out when the levels get too high, where CO2 keeps accumulating.

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I see a contradiction here. If the oceans release CO2 due to warming, wouldn't that also reduce acidification? Isn't this yet another way that nature creates a balance?

Oceans do two things at the same time. They absorb CO2, and ultimately form deposits as Carbonites. At the same time they release CO2 that's not yet trapped as Carbonites, more so when the water gets warmer. One could also say that its net absorption is reduced and thus less is pulled out of the atmosphere (but it's still a lot), and thus more CO2 is returned to (or remains in) the atmosphere, adding to the accelerated build-up of CO2 levels.

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We've also discussed in the previous thread on this subject, that the degree of acidification that has taken place during the past 200 years or more, is of the order of only 0.1 pH, a drop from 8.2 to 8.1. A pH of 7 is neutral (for the benefit of those who are not familiar with this concept). Below a pH of 7 is considered to be acidic, and above 7 is considered to be alkaline.

I remember your response, because it was typically non-scientific and alarmist. You claimed that a reduction of 0.1 in pH was equivalent to a 30% increase in acidity. Other alarmist sites don't go that far, and claim it's a 25% increase in acidity.
However, the question is, why would you convert a logarithmic scale into percentages?

Because most normal people understand percentages. Not that many understand Logarithms. Besides, what's the use of talking about "a change in Log10(Hydrogen ions)", instead of a straightforward percentage? It smacks of deliberate obfuscation.

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A drop from pH 8.2 to pH 8.1 represents a 26% increase in the concentration of hydrogen ions, and therefore acidity.

The numbers that were quoted, at a time you had not yet even heard about Ocean Acidification as CO2's evil twin, were obviously rounded for readability. And it also demonstrates the issue with reporting in Logarithms, seemingly small differences are actually quite significant.

To illustrate the obvious, a change from pH 8.2 to pH 8.1 is an increase of 25.893%, where a change from pH 8.2 to pH 8.08606 is an increase of 30%. So, an increased difference of pH 0.01394 is equal to a 4% difference (4.107% to be more accurate), more than significant.

Sorry for having to spell out such simple things, but apparently it is necessary.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: May 09, 2018, 02:38:44 am by BartvanderWolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #191 on: May 08, 2018, 10:16:13 pm »

I assume cows burp more methane than fart because they chew their cud. 

Interestingly, and to get back to photography, I just returned from a road trip visiting the National Parks in the American southwest.  Much of the west has cows (steers) grazing on private lands that are fenced in.  By the way, I found steaks generally better there than in the east where I live.  A large part of government land is open to free range grazing and lots of methane producing cows.  While driving to Dead Horse Point (Utah State Park) in Canyonlands, you had to watch out for cattle while driving.  We ran into a traffic jam at one point and had to stop.  The cowboy was rounding up some range feeding cattle along the way.  The second and third shot shows a method used to keep cattle from straying from one land to another along roads.  While the metal road bed allows vehicular traffic to pass, cows just won't step on it because they feel too shaky.  So it keeps them from straying.  But they still are on roads you drive feeding from bush to bush and farting or belching as the case may be.

Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #192 on: May 08, 2018, 10:32:18 pm »

Video the cow shot was taken from.  Notice all the little farters that will add to warming.
https://flic.kr/p/25AJ9mF

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #193 on: May 09, 2018, 01:01:34 pm »

It is true that poor people who live in flimsy shacks are more vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events. However, the point you seem to be missing is that they would still be vulnerable to extreme weather events after we had spent trillions of dollars in reducing CO2 levels with alternative, more expensive, energy supplies, unless you believe that all extreme weather events are caused by elevated CO2 levels.

And there you go again, with another strawman's argument. Grow up and stop acting so childish. All that the experts say, is that extreme weather events will become more extreme (due to the increase in water volume (evaporating or raining), and larger temperature differences involved).

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Poor people are energy-starved people. As the cost of energy rises, poverty increases, unless there is a major political change in the distribution of wealth (energy).

Not necessarily, but 'they' (as developing countries in Asia and Africa) are more likely to use cheap coal (amongst others from your home country) as they are catching up, thus adding to our shared problems.

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What the article failed to mention is that water vapour is, by far, the most significant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

No, it is the most abundant, not the most significant, and it is not how solar radiation forcing works. Water vapor increases are caused by the increased CO2 levels (which leads to warming, which leads to expansion of the atmospheric volume, and it is filled by additional evaporated water), not the other way around.

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From NOAA, which is a fairly reliable source of information, wouldn't you agree?

"As the temperature of the atmosphere rises, more water is evaporated from ground storage (rivers, oceans, reservoirs, soil). Because the air is warmer, the absolute humidity can be higher (in essence, the air is able to 'hold' more water when it's warmer), leading to more water vapor in the atmosphere.

That's basic physics, yes.

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As a greenhouse gas, the higher concentration of water vapor is then able to absorb more thermal IR energy radiated from the Earth, thus further warming the atmosphere. The warmer atmosphere can then hold more water vapor and so on and so on. This is referred to as a 'positive feedback loop'.

No, it soon reaches an equilibrium, because Water vapor is a short-lived gas. It needs CO2 to further warm the earth, CO2 is the driving force, complemented by water vapor.

Water vapor does two things (and that's also depending on its altitude), it indeed absorbs certain IR radiation wavelengths that is emitted/reflected back from the earth's surface, a 'positive' forcing. But it also reflects incoming solar energy when the water vapor is in the form of clouds, a 'negative' forcing, before the solar energy can be converted to longer wavelengths by the earth's surface. It is the net forcing that's important, not the cherrypicked part of the equation if that better suits your agenda.

What you seem to be missing is an understanding of which wavelengths are involved and whether gasses with Greenhouse properties absorb in those wavelengths. Again, a simple illustration with an image, and don't worry I'll walk you through the interpretation in baby steps:


1. First, notice the wavelengths from the sun that reach the earth's atmosphere (red colored bell curve, at the top left). They cover some UV, visible light, and near-IR wavelengths. There is only very little absorption in the near-IR range by Water vapor, most light is absorbed in the UV side of the spectrum by O2 and Rayleigh-scattering, so ultimately 70-75% of the solar radiation reaches earth.
2. Then after cooling down a lot (absorption by the earth's surface), there are some re-emitted longer wavelengths trying to get back in space (blue colored bell-curve, at the top right). It is these wavelengths that matter if they are blocked, the atmosphere heats up.
3. There is some partial Water vapor absorption at the lower wavelengths in that band (growing as the wavelengths get longer), then there is also very much absorption by CO2 just after the bell curve peaks, which therefore is behaving as a very significant 'Greenhouse gas',  and the there is more Water vapor absorption at the right-hand tail side of the range.

Now comes the crux of the matter. CO2 and Water vapor complement each other in absorbing more at the wavelengths where they matter most. Now, understand that the amount of water vapor (and thus its absoption) is limited by the atmosphere's temperature (it reaches an equilibrium and then starts raining out), but CO2 can regulate that equilibrium by building temperatures up to ever higher levels (which in turn will allow more water vapor to be held and then they can both heat-up the atmosphere some more, until yet more CO2 raises the equilibruium level even further and  so on).

So CO2 is driving the solar forcing, helped by H2O absorbing what CO2 didn't already absorb.  CO2 is a long-lived Greenhouse gas and therefore its amount cumulates over time. If we were to abruptly stop emitting excess CO2, then it would still take quite some time before a new equilibrium is established, but things would settle at that equilibrium.

That's what the chart I've shown earlier depicts. I'll show it here again so you don't have to scroll back and forth.



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However, huge scientific uncertainty exists in defining the extent and importance of this feedback loop.

Not really, the principles are well understood, and the solar radiation flux and atmospheric absorptions can actually be measured.

The 'only' problem is in the many model assumptions required for an accurate model for the future.
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/~naeger/references/journals/Sundar_Journal_Papers/1997_JGR_Hansen.pdf
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf

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As water vapor increases in the atmosphere, more of it will eventually also condense into clouds, which are more able to reflect incoming solar radiation (thus allowing less energy to reach the Earth's surface and heat it up).

And it also traps emissions from the earth's surface. Just notice how much more the night temperature drops on a cloudless night. The overall net forcing is negative (see the second chart in this post, under "Total Aerosol"), but with a huge range of possible values due to e.g. differences in landcover (meaning that it varies a lot at different loctations).

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Have you got it yet, Bart, or do I have to go on and on and on?  ;D

I appears like it's you who still didn't get it ... (hope my explanation gets you somewhat upto speed), but that didn't stop you before, so I'm not holding my breath.

Cheers,
Bart
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #194 on: May 09, 2018, 02:20:46 pm »

Great, Bart. Your charts prove once again that "figures don't lie, but . . ." you know the rest.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #195 on: May 09, 2018, 03:27:47 pm »

Great, Bart. Your charts prove once again that "figures don't lie, but . . ." you know the rest.

Hi Russ,

If you're calling me a liar, care to point out where I (or the sources that I quoted) got it wrong???

Cheers,
Bart
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #196 on: May 09, 2018, 03:41:48 pm »

I wouldn't do that, Bart. I'm sure you didn't make the charts. But I suspect you believe the charts tell you something significant.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #197 on: May 09, 2018, 04:05:46 pm »

I wouldn't do that, Bart. I'm sure you didn't make the charts. But I suspect you believe the charts tell you something significant.

Russ,

You said "Your charts prove ...". What proof?

Cheers,
Bart
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PeterAit

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #198 on: May 09, 2018, 04:30:47 pm »

Meanwhile, in North Carolina, the "fake news" climate change is causing more and more of our coast to be flooded.

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/technology/article210413904.html
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Chairman Bill

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #199 on: May 09, 2018, 05:10:38 pm »

I'd just like to point out that global warming is fake news, the so-called moon landings were shot in Nevada (Area 51), vaccines cause autism, chemtrails cause homosexuality, Donald Trump is the healthiest person ever, Moses had a pet velociraptor and the earth is flat. That is all.
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