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Author Topic: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead  (Read 4161 times)

Kevin Raber

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New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« on: January 17, 2018, 08:24:04 PM »

I just published a rantatorial on what my predictions are for 2018 in the photography field that we love so much.  You can read it HERE
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Kevin Raber
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2018, 05:25:55 AM »

Kevin, good piece and interesting predictions for 2018. Ref. Canon, they (still) seem to be doing quite well according to the latest BCN rankings in Japan. They still have a large dominating role in DSLR segment, and are actually #2 in mirrorless (ahead of Sony, and behind Olympus).

Finding themselves in such a position, it is no wonder they are taking their time in introducing a new mirrorless FF/Pro system.

Kevin Raber

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2018, 07:35:12 AM »

Paulo, those figures are for Japan only.  I think the rest of the world would skew those numbers.  Never the less if you listen to other sources you would hear different.  It's going to be an interesting year.
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Kevin Raber
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Jonathan Cross

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2018, 06:15:36 PM »

Wow, what a lot of predictions; thanks Kevin for your hunches, or perhaps informed ideas.  It did make me somewhat sad, as I have just bought a Fuji X-T2, and spent what is quite a lot of money in my terms.  I am not a bottomless pit of cash.  I still have an X-T1, and will use that with zooms and the X-T2 with primes.  Trading in my X-T1 would have meant lots of money lost, so I prefer to keep it.  To read that an X-T3 may be just around the corner is depressing.  The update cycle time of cameras seems to be getting shorter and shorter.  I do not know how Sony users feel.  This seems to me to indicate a saturated market, where companies are finding it less and less easy to sell to new customers and are relying on existing ones replacing.  I have no intention of buying more and more megapixels, 24MP is enough for me.  So, if sales are slipping, how are the companies funding continuous upgrading?  Are they making more profit per unit? 

The camera is a tool; I want to get completely at ease with the technology I have, and so will concentrate on the joy of taking images.

Jonathan

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Jonathan in UK

Kevin Raber

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2018, 08:35:58 PM »

Thanks, Remember I am only predicting my thoughts on Fuji.  There are rumors all over the place.  It does make sense though that the XT2 is upgraded this year.  The XT2 has been out for a couple of years and there are always things that need upgrading in regards to new technology.  IBIS and more MP is just a good guess.   There will always be remorse for those that just bought a camera no different than buying an iPhone then seeing the new phone.  There is no reason that one needs the latest technology in cameras if the one you have is doing fine.  Just because there is a new camera doesn't mean you need to buy it.  But, as a company, Fuji needs to keep income and sales and you can only do that by being competitive in the market. 

So, enjoy your XT2 it is a great camera.  You'll have to ask yourself when new cameras come out if the new version is what you want.
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Kevin Raber
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armand

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2018, 09:47:45 PM »

I didn't realize it's been already 2 years now, yesterday I've just upgraded the firmware to the last version.
I think there is a very strong rumor for X-H1 (or so) which will have IBIS and likely be more optimized for video. The X-T3 rumor is not as strong yet, maybe in the fall.

One thing to consider more is the lenses. I keep debating if I should just get my feet wet with Sony mostly because of the newer lenses that they are putting out. I'm still waiting on Fuji and Nikon to come out with a higher quality WR travel/hiking friendly lens in the 24-85/105 range as Sony seems to have done with their 24-105 F4. For Fuji the 16-55 2.8 is too big/heavy and no OIS for not so great IQ gains while the 18-135 is too limited IQ wise. Nikon has the 24-120 F4 which I own and is serviceable but should be better, particularly in the corners, while the new 24-70 2.8E does most things right but it's kind of heavy.
Also Sony's 16-35 2.8 seems to be a pretty good lens for landscapes at a weight that's acceptable for backpacking. The Fuji 10-24 F4 is good but a little limited by the aperture if you want nightscapes while Nikon is MIA here.

PS. M43 has all the lenses that I want but I'm still not that taken with the sensor output, not sure why.

Wayne Fox

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2018, 10:21:04 PM »

Fun article.  Enjoyed your thoughts.
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Two23

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2018, 11:02:20 PM »

Didn't really care one way or another about the photo gear predictions, but found the software updates quite interesting.  I think we've passed the point where software has actually become more important than gear. 


Kent in SD
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In contento ed allegria,
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GrahamBy

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2018, 05:06:49 AM »

Re Pentax giving up: who could blame them? They were way ahead of the curve with the 645Z, the K3 had the 24Mpx sensor and IBIS of the A6500 at 1/3 the price. The K1 has been reviewed as outstanding everywhere... but no one buys their gear. They apparently made some bad deals on lens development and got shut out by Sigma, but that happened in part because their market share was so small.

None of the reviewers I read had the balls to say in their Nikon or Canon DSLR reviews "The fact that this body doesn't have IBIS is pathetic, it's just an excuse to scalp you on IS lenses as they slowly become available."

As for Sony G-series glass pointing to higher resolution sensors, note that a 24Mpx APC sensor already has the same pixel density as a putative 60MPx FF. It's not an issue.
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2018, 05:52:04 AM »

Kevin, yes those figures are for Japan, but isn't Japan the country where mirrorless has gained more traction in terms of market? So I would expect that in the rest of the world, mirrorless' market share would be even less?

What I find curious is that year on year, we hear about how mirrorless will conquer the world; so far, it hasn't happened.

armand

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2018, 09:02:45 AM »

Kevin, yes those figures are for Japan, but isn't Japan the country where mirrorless has gained more traction in terms of market? So I would expect that in the rest of the world, mirrorless' market share would be even less?

What I find curious is that year on year, we hear about how mirrorless will conquer the world; so far, it hasn't happened.

Regarding this there is an interesting discussion on nikonrumors with Thom Hogan stating that by 2020 the mirrorless will surpass DSLR in terms of sales. This was based on a 10% drop/year in DSLRS and 10% gain/year in mirrorless. Even if D850 slowed things a little bit on DSLR side, Sony A7R iii and the presumed mirrorless release this year from Canikon makes it quite plausible.

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2018, 09:31:28 AM »

Regarding this there is an interesting discussion on nikonrumors with Thom Hogan stating that by 2020 the mirrorless will surpass DSLR in terms of sales. This was based on a 10% drop/year in DSLRS and 10% gain/year in mirrorless. Even if D850 slowed things a little bit on DSLR side, Sony A7R iii and the presumed mirrorless release this year from Canikon makes it quite plausible.

Sure, if Canon and Nikon enter the mirrorless segment with good systems, it will be no surprise that mirrorless will overtake DSLRs. The difficulty is convincing the masses that buy the Rebels and similar cheap (but excellent value for money) to now go and buy a MILC.

The last time that Canon did something drastic was in 1987 (FD > FE). Let's wait and see.

TedYork

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2018, 12:05:36 PM »

Before we get mad at Canon and Nikon for not going mirrorless we need to consider some photographers love clear optical viewfinders. That is my preference. I looked at Sony before purchasing my current camera. To me it was much like looking at a bad television screen.  I'm do not mean to criticize photographers who like electronic finders, I only want to make the point that some of us don't want them. A clear finder is part of my creative process, and that is what I want in a camera for composing. The live view on the back is my go-to for locking up my mirror and rechecking exposure before I make the shot - landscapes only - but I do not compose with it. Just my mini rant. Thanks for all of the great information you share. Ted
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Kevin Raber

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2018, 12:58:09 PM »

Ted, I know what you mean.  I wonder if you have looked at the a9 and a7r III viewfinders.  Greatly improved.  Every now and then when I pick up a Nikon or Canon or a Phase One to shoot with I do (for a minute) like the viewfinder look, but then quickly miss all the benefits of the EVF.   In the end, it is whatever works for you and allows you to get shot you want. 
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Kevin Raber
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Jonathan Cross

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2018, 01:54:29 PM »

Yes Kevin, I agree with you. I love my Fuji system, just so much more luggable and a joy to use, but...  I also love my Canon 5D3 for wildlife, macro and when I am using a tripod.  I only paid about 300 (about 400 USD) for my 100mm, non IS, macro and it meets all my needs.  I have to confess that I use a tripod less these days, just wind up the ISO.  For me it is horses for courses, Fuji for portraits, travel, and magazine photos of events and people, Canon for the rest.  In time though, I believe mirrorless will win.

Jonathan
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ErikKaffehr

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2018, 03:13:29 PM »

Hi,

I am quite positive about Hasselblad and Fuji. Hasselblad probably realized their future lies in 44x33 mm and I would think that is what their focus it. They say that they are selling 6-8 times more than a few years ago.

Fuji's strategy makes a lot of sense. They were the premium maker of APS-C systems and they choose to go into 44x33 instead of 24x36 as an upgrade path. They make excellent lenses, designed for 44x33 mm. Optimizing for 44x33 mm is a key point. During 2017 there were a lot of reports on misfocusing and alignment issues. But it seems that Fuji actually makes some of the best lenses ever made. So I hope that Fuji improves consistency of lens building and irons out software glitches.

I would agree that 2018 is an interesting year for Canon. They make great lenses, and they have invested a lot in rational manufacture. I don't think Sony can match Canon's lens quality and Sony has a dismal reputation on consistency. Lens Rentals has just tested Canon's 85/1.4 and it clearly outperforms the Sony 85/1.4GM, but the 85/1.4GM varies all over the place and comes in at a very high cost.

Canon has new 0.18 micron technology in place, the new technology is used by the X1DII and the 5DIV. I would suggest we will see some new systems with greatly improved DR at base ISO coming from Canon.

Sony has made some real gain with A9 and the A7rIII. I would expect some new higher resolution sensor. A great advantage with Sony is the wide variety of lenses usable with the A# series. Zeiss makes the Loxia and Batis lines for the Sony. Personally, I am most interested into Voigtlander 60/2.0 Apo Lanthar.

With Phase One, I don't know. I don't think cameras in the 20+k$US sphere are very interesting. Also, I think that 44x33mm makes a lot of sense, once you design sensors around it. So, I think Phase One does a lot of good stuff, but not at prices I am willing to afford. So, I am not really interested.

Nikon seems to have some problems. Thom Hogan discusses those issues a lot. The D850 is obviously great news, but I don't think that a single high end model is something a camera maker can survive on. The D500 makes a lot of sense and that would also apply to Canon's 7DII. These cameras give professional frame rates with extended range. A wildlife photographer told me, I will never get a full frame, I cannot even fill the viewfinder on APS-C. Something to it...

In the long term, I think the camera business is going into mirrorless. SLR was invented in order to provide "what you see is what you get" view finding. Now, we can use the sensor for that. Sure, EVF will evolve over the years.

There are unsung heroes of the digital revolution. One of those unsung heroes is Anders Torger who developed Lumariver Profile Designer and it's open source sibling "DCamProf". Now we can make scientifically correct colour profiles for both DCP and ICC based systems.

I would also call some attention to a number of guys posting now and then contributing to our understanding of base technology:


  • Jim Kasson who writes a dozen articles about his findings on photo equipment and shares all his information at zero costs. A great guy!
  • Jack Hogan, who educates his dog about the technology of photography during his many strolls in the green forrests. He also shares the experience for free.
  • Bart van der Wolf used to work as a customer support engineer for a company formerly called Kodak. He still offers a lot of good advice, absolutely free.
  • Andrew Rodney, the Digital Dog als comes to mind.
  • Iliah Borg is a great source of information.
  • I would also include Steve Hendrix into this list. He always gives good advice, without the marketing hyperbole.

But, we also have an endless number of contributors to these forums, thanks for sharing your experience and please continue in 2018.

Not least, I would like to thank the team at LuminousLandscape for keeping LuLa alive and posting many new articles and videos. I have been most impressed by the videos with Charlie Cramer.

Best regards
Erik



I just published a rantatorial on what my predictions are for 2018 in the photography field that we love so much.  You can read it HERE
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 03:23:52 PM by ErikKaffehr »
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VidJa

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2018, 04:15:39 PM »

Exciting times indeed. I hope Nikon will be so smart to keep their mount compatible when they release their milc. If not it will be a signal to go to another brand for me since I have mostly older lenses.

The good news is that we will see a lot of second gear on eBay and other sites. At the moment I am teaching vulnerable young adults with (forms of) autism how to find their way in photography, composition and light. Deliberately away from the technology.

We are using older giveaway gear as the organization does not have sufficient funds. At the moment we have a few rebels, a pentax, a few older Nikon bodies and an assortment of standard zooms. Some bought on marktplaats(Dutch ebay) and some received in kind from photographer's redundant gear. They all need to be replaced soon.
However, that does not stop our participants from making some brilliant shots, have great fun and some found a new hobby. (so much for all the mega hypes). Its all relative.
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armand

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2018, 05:19:08 PM »

Now that you mention it I recall there is a rumor out there regarding a Fuji GFX 50R, a same sensor simpler 50S. I would think it would cost less then the 50S.
Now the GFX 50S with 32-64 is quite lighter than the D850 with 24-70E and up to 2K more expensive. Yes, not the same range but close enough that a further decrease in price would make it quite tempting for somebody looking into the D850.

adias

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2018, 12:30:27 AM »

Reports of DSLRs' demise are greatly exaggerated. :)
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Hans Kruse

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Re: New Rantatorial Just Publsihed - What Lies Ahead
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2018, 10:48:02 AM »

Before we get mad at Canon and Nikon for not going mirrorless we need to consider some photographers love clear optical viewfinders. That is my preference. I looked at Sony before purchasing my current camera. To me it was much like looking at a bad television screen.  I'm do not mean to criticize photographers who like electronic finders, I only want to make the point that some of us don't want them. A clear finder is part of my creative process, and that is what I want in a camera for composing. The live view on the back is my go-to for locking up my mirror and rechecking exposure before I make the shot - landscapes only - but I do not compose with it. Just my mini rant. Thanks for all of the great information you share. Ted

My view is exactly the same. I want a clear uncluttered viewfinder for my compositions. The Canon 5DSR and the Niikon D850 are prime examples of very good viewfinders. I have not yet seen a mirrorless I could accept. I'm not sure it will ever happen since a viewfinder is fundamentally different from a backlit screen no matter the quality of it. I may come to a point where I have to. 😊
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