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Author Topic: Climate Change: Science and Issues  (Read 122055 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #260 on: November 13, 2017, 01:16:04 am »

Rather insulting straw man argument,  Robert, calling my point stealing.   Why not address what I said.  That we should have an analysis of where limited government  funds should be spent.   How much for reducing CO2 vs. cancer research and prevention of malaria or other important activities?     Many expenditures have value.   We needd to have discussions how much to allocate and what percentages to each as resources are finite.

LesPalenik

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #261 on: November 13, 2017, 05:22:49 am »

For the last three years the global CO2 emissions stayed relatively stable, but in 2017 they shot up again. The main culprits are China and India.

Quote
For a while it looked as if the world might be turning the corner.  But after a three-year stall in their growth, human-caused carbon-dioxide emissions have not, in fact, peaked, an international team of scientists announced this morning. 
In 2017, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and industry will once again rise by 2 percent, the scientists project, to a record 37 billion metric tons. Those emissions had increased by only a quarter of a percent from 2014 to 2016. Changes in land use, such as deforestation, will add around 4 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2017, bringing the global emissions total to an estimated 41 billion metric tons.

"What's driving, really, the global trend is this pick-up in China," says Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia, and the lead author of one of several new emissions studies released today. An unexpected rise in coal-burning in China—due in part to a summer drought that diminished the country’s rivers and its generation of hydropower—was the biggest contributor to the global surge in emissions.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/11/climate-change-carbon-emissions-rising-environment/

 
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #262 on: November 13, 2017, 07:22:31 am »

... When we teach our children that stealing is bad, should we be also be providing reasons why it might be good too?...

So, Monsieur d'Artagnan, in addition to the governor of CA wanting us brainwashed, you want us treated as children too?  ;)

Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #263 on: November 13, 2017, 08:25:19 am »

For the last three years the global CO2 emissions stayed relatively stable, but in 2017 they shot up again. The main culprits are China and India.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/11/climate-change-carbon-emissions-rising-environment/

 

India and China poor who don't use much carbon will continue to increase the CO2 emitted in the world as they pull out of poverty.  That's why the 2030 date Paris gave them to do nothing.  So even if America and Europe continue to reduce, it will be like shoveling sh!t against the tide.  CO2 will continue to go up.  The statistics in those countries are daunting.

India has 360 million poor based on a income of over 50 cents a day or so.  Of course, if 50 cents isn't enough to live on, the poor may total 750 million.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-17455646

China is growing faster than India. Looking at middle class as a metric, between 2009 and 2030, the country will add 850 million to its middle class.  All those people wanting cars or scooters and refrigerators and air conditioners that use energy.  So what will be their CO2 production in 2030 with 850 million more people having the money to buy and use more stuff that creates CO2?  This Australian article thinks it's wonderful for Australians as they'll sell a lot more stuff to China making Australia richer.  Will Australia be upset that China isn't abiding by Paris?  Will Mercedes in Germany be upset? Or will everyone in the world be delighted how China's good fortune is making them richer as well?  Paris will be forgotten.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-killer-fact-about-the-chinese-middle-class-20170726-gxj1z7.html

Ray

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #264 on: November 13, 2017, 08:53:39 am »

Yes, smog in India is bad, and they better do something about it, but that has nothing to do with the topic of this thread which is about greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.

Actually, I personally think it has a lot to do with greenhouse gas emissions and the 'scare' about climate change.

Let's consider what we know (that is what sensible people know) with a high degree of certainty, that merits serious action and planning be taken in order to prevent further harm to a significant percentage of the population in many countries.

Emissions from the burning of fossils fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, and also forest burn-off, or Slash and Burn practices for agriculture purposes in many undeveloped countries, such as Indonesia, Northern Thailand, Myanmar, South America and so on, can cause serious health problems.

There's no doubt about that. This can be verified medically and scientifically, without reliance on computer models. The health consequences of these emissions of various Sulphates and Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Monoxide, traces of heavy metals such as Mercury and Lead, and in particular, small particles of carbon, have been known for many years.

As countries in the West developed industrially, the populations in the cities and urban areas frequently became exposed to soot, smog and haze, but as a result of an awareness of the health consequences, such countries gradually reduced the problem through government regulation of emission controls on power stations and vehicles.

What I find revealing is that, despite this medical knowledge and certainty about the health consequences of the burning of fossil fuels without adequate emission controls, that has been known in developed countries for many decades, undeveloped countries such as China and India seem to have ignored, or at least downplayed such knowledge in the interests of economic development.

So, I'll repeat that notorious election slogan from Bill Clinton, which I find very relevant. "It's the economy, stupid."  ;)

And I admit I can sympathize with this attitude. Is it better for a population to languish in poverty, and sometimes starvation, and suffer the effects of untreated diseases due to a lack of hospitals and a general lack of economic development, but have a relatively clean atmosphere with little pollution from fossil fuels?

Or is it better to give priority to economic development and deal later with the air pollution problem, as we did in the West (and are still doing of course), and as China is currently doing?

As I see it, there are two basic approaches to dealing with air pollution. One is to develop better ways of burning fossil fuels that have better emission controls. The other is to develop alternative and renewable sources of energy which don't have any direct emissions.

Smart countries like China and Japan are combining both approaches. The following article addresses the issue quite comprehensively.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/reports/2017/05/15/432141/everything-think-know-coal-china-wrong/

"Beijing’s solution is to move full speed ahead with renewables while simultaneously investing in what may become the most efficient, least polluting coal fleet the world has ever seen."[/b]

I've attached a graph from the article showing the massive decline in the number of polluting 'Subcritical' coal-fired power plants during the past couple of decades in China, and the significant increase in the much-less-polluting Supercritical and Ultra-supercritical coal-fired plants.

For the benefit of those who don't have the time to read the article, the following quote describes the terms, Subcritical, Supercritical and Ultra-supercritical.

"Subcritical: In these conventional power plants, coal is ignited to boil water, the water creates steam, and the steam rotates a turbine to generate electricity.3 The term “subcritical” indicates that internal steam pressure and temperature do not exceed the critical point of water—705 degrees Fahrenheit and 3,208 pounds per square inch.

Supercritical: These plants use high-tech materials to achieve internal steam temperatures in the 1,000–1,050 degrees Fahrenheit range and internal pressure levels that are higher than the critical point of water, thus spinning the turbines much faster and generating more electricity with less coal.

Ultra-supercritical: These plants use additional technology innovations to bring temperatures to more than 1,400 degrees Fahrenheit and pressure levels to more than 5,000 pounds per square inch, thus further improving efficiency."


However, these modern, low-polluting, Ultra-Supercritical power plants still emit CO2, although at a reduced level. If CO2 were a pollutant, this would be a problem. However, I think the Chinese are smart enough to understand that it's not CO2 which is causing smog in their cities and which affects their health.
The Chinese also have the historical records which show that their civilization flourished during warm periods in the past. Could it be a mere coincidence that they are now beginning to flourish again during the current warm period?  ;)

The scare about 'catastrophic climate change' due to CO2 emissions, is a psychological and political ploy which is used to encourage and motivate societies to pay more attention to the harmful effects of the 'real' pollution from fossil fuels.

We don't want a continuous repetition of undeveloped societies, like China and India, struggling to develop their economies by burning fossil fuels as cheaply as possible, without regard to the polluting emissions. There has to be a better way.

China is showing that better way. Countries such as Australia that accept the dubious claim that CO2 is a pollutant and refuse to build new, Ultra-supercritical coal-fired power plants, are at risk of falling behind economically. Rising energy prices, static wage growth, and unaffordable housing for young people, are current problems in Australia that are due, at least in part, to the uneconomic shift towards more expensive and less reliable renewable sources of energy. It's very sad to see such incompetence in my own country.



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pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #265 on: November 13, 2017, 12:08:40 pm »

You want me to argue with her? :)
Yes of course, the argueing might be tough, but making up afterwards can be rewarding ;)
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pieter, aka pegelli

pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #266 on: November 13, 2017, 12:11:32 pm »

That's why the 2030 date Paris gave them to do nothing. 
Not true  :P
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pieter, aka pegelli

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #267 on: November 13, 2017, 12:30:29 pm »

Rather insulting straw man argument,  Robert, calling my point stealing.   Why not address what I said.  That we should have an analysis of where limited government  funds should be spent.   How much for reducing CO2 vs. cancer research and prevention of malaria or other important activities?     Many expenditures have value.   We needd to have discussions how much to allocate and what percentages to each as resources are finite.

You lost me. I was not insulting you by calling your point stealing. I used cute hyperbole to express my problem with the notion of "balance" in the context. My comment was not even directed at you, other than to mention that you were the one who most recently mentioned the subject. You're sensitive.

And I did not address those other issues because they were not what I was addressing.
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Robert

pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #269 on: November 13, 2017, 01:23:44 pm »

For the last three years the global CO2 emissions stayed relatively stable, but in 2017 they shot up again. The main culprits are China and India.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/11/climate-change-carbon-emissions-rising-environment/
Interesting, but 2017 isn't over yet so I'd rather wait for the more consistent numbers published by the IEA after the fact (and after sufficient consistency checks) before drawing firm conclusions.

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pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #270 on: November 13, 2017, 02:26:11 pm »

You lost me. I was not insulting you by calling your point stealing. I used cute hyperbole to express my problem with the notion of "balance" in the context. My comment was not even directed at you, other than to mention that you were the one who most recently mentioned the subject. You're sensitive.

And I did not address those other issues because they were not what I was addressing.
Ok.  No problem. Posts are often misunderstood.

LesPalenik

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #271 on: November 13, 2017, 02:34:01 pm »

Interesting, but 2017 isn't over yet so I'd rather wait for the more consistent numbers published by the IEA after the fact (and after sufficient consistency checks) before drawing firm conclusions.

If anything, the official numbers will be higher by year end. And the real numbers will be higher yet.
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pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #272 on: November 13, 2017, 02:41:05 pm »

If anything, the official numbers will be higher by year end. And the real numbers will be higher yet.
Source?
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pieter, aka pegelli

LesPalenik

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #273 on: November 13, 2017, 04:08:51 pm »

Just my gut feeling and historical records. 
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #274 on: November 13, 2017, 05:38:06 pm »

Interesting, but 2017 isn't over yet so I'd rather wait for the more consistent numbers published by the IEA after the fact (and after sufficient consistency checks) before drawing firm conclusions.


Of course the numbers are growing. They're not going to reverse in the final six weeks of the year. China asked for nothing to happen until 2030. Why would China ask for that date if they expected the CO2 numbers to go down?  They bamboozled Paris.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #275 on: November 13, 2017, 06:07:39 pm »

Of course the numbers are growing. They're not going to reverse in the final six weeks of the year. China asked for nothing to happen until 2030. Why would China ask for that date if they expected the CO2 numbers to go down?  They bamboozled Paris.
I think discussions of whether they bamboozled Paris or what India has or has not done are counter productive at this point.  Both countries have developing economies and huge population bases so it's expected as industrialization moves forward energy consumption will increase.  The issue for both countries is how to manage this in the best possible manner given not only the global environment but their own local environments as relates to air pollution. 
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pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #276 on: November 14, 2017, 02:50:30 am »

They bamboozled Paris.
Not true  :P

Sorry Alan G, remove the post if you think that's better, but then pls. also remove the kind of trolling statements that are far besides the truth and are also not helpful and even in the most positive light based on a total lack of understanding (or willingness to understand).
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pieter, aka pegelli

Ray

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #277 on: November 14, 2017, 05:22:39 am »

I think discussions of whether they bamboozled Paris or what India has or has not done are counter productive at this point.  Both countries have developing economies and huge population bases so it's expected as industrialization moves forward energy consumption will increase.  The issue for both countries is how to manage this in the best possible manner given not only the global environment but their own local environments as relates to air pollution.

I agree, Alan. The thread is beginning to degenerate into tittle tattle. Let's concentrate on the serious issues that affect us all.

Hope the issue is not too profound for mere photographers.  ;D
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #279 on: November 14, 2017, 10:23:50 am »

Politics and economics have everything to do with climate change proposals and Paris.  Trump pulled out because his supporters wanted him too.  China and India fought for their 2030 extension also for political and economic reasons.  You can't discuss this issue intelligently without including politics, policy and economics.    Trying to "shut me up" and calling me a troll  is just another way of silencing the opposition.  I'm sorry if the word "bamboozle" upsets you.  I didn't realize you were so sensitive.   How about if I said that China, the biggest CO2 polluter,  pulled the wool over everyone's eyes in Paris and got away with murder?  This is exactly why deniers and skeptics are who we are.  They sense that people are putting their thumbs on the scale to force policy decisions.  Trying to silence my opinion is a political act. 
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