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Author Topic: Trump IV (what did you expect?)  (Read 15394 times)

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #40 on: October 08, 2017, 08:18:33 am »

Care to refute what I was saying? You or Pieter Kers?
Absolutely!  The chart HERE shows that the market under Obama out performed Trump when adjusted for the first year in office.  Don't despair about the source being 'Mother Jones' as the chart comes from the FRED database which is run by the St. Louis Fed branch.
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Manoli

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #41 on: October 08, 2017, 08:54:34 am »

Linking to your post, Alan - more effective in driving the point home when you see it 'in-line' ..



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RSL

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #42 on: October 08, 2017, 11:59:25 am »

Well, figures don't lie but liars sure figure. Here's a classic example. Obama took over close to the pit of a recession. Trump took over during a period when the market already had stabilized. To top it off, the chart shows increases in percentages. Looks great! Doesn't mean a thing.
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Russ Lewis  www.russ-lewis.com.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #43 on: October 08, 2017, 12:30:42 pm »

Just as I thought and already said: selecting percentage growth and disregarding the starting point, you can "demonstrate" anything. This is what I said:

"... Obama got in at the lowest point, after the worst recession since the Great Depression. It was all uphill after that anyway (and absolutely not thanks to him - he managed to preside over the LONGEST recovery in recent history).

Trump inherited an already high market, bound for a correction. The predictions were that his election would cause an immediate crash and panic in the markets, world-wide. And yet, the market jumped and continue to see a rosy future."

Anybody with a modicum of statistical education would recognize the trick MJ and you are playing.

The same trick is used by annuities salesmen to prove that investing with them into their type of annuities outperforms the market every time.

The same explanation is why the Chinese economy grows at double-digit percentages, while the US merely manages 2-3 percents: different starting points, low for China, already high for the US.

For percentage-challenged, here is how it works: adding one unit of something (e.g., an airplane) to a low base of one results in a 100 percent growth; add anorher unit, for a total of three, gives a 50 percent growth, add a fourth unit, the growth becomes 33 percent, keep adding and it goes down: 25 percent, 20 percent, etc. When you add that one unit to and already high base of, say, 100, the growth is a meager one percent.

Elementary.

pegelli

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #44 on: October 08, 2017, 12:42:27 pm »

Well, figures don't lie but liars sure figure. Here's a classic example. Obama took over close to the pit of a recession. Trump took over during a period when the market already had stabilized. To top it off, the chart shows increases in percentages. Looks great! Doesn't mean a thing.

Figures don't lie: During the first ~190 days of Obama the stock market went up ~30%, during the first ~190 days of Trump the stock market went up ~13%

Then the figuring starts: yes but Obama started in a recession and got an unfair advantage, and Trump's inauguration crowds were bigger, Trump has bigger hands, etc. etc. It's just bla - bla -bla and totally un- (and in-) credible.

Well if you buy those excuses it's up to you, I don't because I can smell crap from a long way away, and the least you can say is that Obama didn't do any worse then Trump with regards to the stock market in the first 190 days and we still have to see how well Trump holds on for the next 3 years.
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pieter, aka pegelli

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #45 on: October 08, 2017, 12:48:28 pm »

See where Obama started and where Trump started:

RSL

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #46 on: October 08, 2017, 12:51:16 pm »

Well if you buy those excuses it's up to you, I don't because I can smell crap from a long way away, and the least you can say is that Obama didn't do any worse then Trump with regards to the stock market in the first 190 days and we still have to see how well Trump holds on for the next 3 years.

I certainly can say that, Pieter. You've even admitted that Obama's administration was lifting a cream puff while Trump's is lifting a barbell. If you want an equally meaningless comparison, compare where the main markets were at the end of Obama's 190th day versus where they were at the end of Trumps. But that meaningless comparison looks really, really good for Trump.
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pegelli

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #47 on: October 08, 2017, 01:17:55 pm »

Simply more figuring Slobodan and Russ, the Dow point increase is about equal, so there is no way Trump is "much beter" or even better at all in this respect.

I know you like and defend Trump but I don't buy all the crap that is spread about his "great deeds", in my mind most of it is hot air..
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pieter, aka pegelli

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #48 on: October 08, 2017, 01:33:48 pm »

Simply more figuring Slobodan and Russ, the Dow point increase is about equal, so there is no way Trump is "much beter" or even better at all in this respect.

I know you like and defend Trump but I don't buy all the crap that is spread about his "great deeds", in my mind most of it is hot air..

I know you are smarter than this, Pieter, arguing against elementary statistical knowledge (you are pro-science, I remember).

But all that actually has nothing to do with my original statement: "The stock market, reaching historic heights, apparently thinks the future is much rosier under Trump."

For the uninitiated, markets reflect expectations about FUTURE returns.

pegelli

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #49 on: October 08, 2017, 01:40:47 pm »


I know you are smarter than this, Pieter, arguing against elementary statistical knowledge (you are pro-science, I remember).

But all that actually has nothing to do with my original statement: "The stock market, reaching historic heights, apparently thinks the future is much rosier under Trump."

For the uninitiated, markets reflect expectations about FUTURE returns.
I thought you were smarter than this as well Slobodan, apparently the future value increase under Obama was greater, so what's your point?  ;)
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pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #50 on: October 08, 2017, 01:48:26 pm »

Trump II topic was deleted by the Administrators.  They can do that?  Why did they do that? 

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #51 on: October 08, 2017, 01:48:33 pm »

I thought you were smarter than this as well Slobodan, apparently the future value increase under Obama was greater, so what's your point?  ;)

My point, Pieter, should have been obvious from the beginning, but, for your convenience, I''ll repeat:

Quote
...all that actually has nothing to do with my original statement: "The stock market, reaching historic heights, apparently thinks the future is much rosier under Trump."

Meaning that nothing in that sentence looks back or compares Trump to Obama. It was in response to the doomsday scenario, as Les mentioned the mantra from before the election, that under Trump, we will experience an immediate market crash, world-wide panic, massive unemployment, bubonic plague, meteorite hit, etc.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2017, 01:53:21 pm by Slobodan Blagojevic »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #52 on: October 08, 2017, 01:51:59 pm »

Trump II topic was deleted by the Administrators.  They can do that?  Why did they do that? 
They also remove Topics: Uninformed Opinions About Guns and Boris Johnson.  That's awfully disrespectful to the posters.  In the case of Trump II that ran 300+ pages over months and months, and added click totals to the website, suddenly administration decides to remove it.  That's pretty insulting.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #53 on: October 08, 2017, 01:52:48 pm »

Trump II topic was deleted by the Administrators.  They can do that?  Why did they do that? 

http://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=120893.0

pegelli

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #54 on: October 08, 2017, 01:54:16 pm »

"The stock market, reaching historic heights, apparently thinks the future is much rosier under Trump."
If you didn't compare to Obama, then my question is "rosier then what"
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pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #55 on: October 08, 2017, 01:57:29 pm »

If you didn't compare to Obama, then my question is "rosier then what"
The under Hillary.

pegelli

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #56 on: October 08, 2017, 01:57:35 pm »

That's pretty insulting.
Not to me, the owners of the website can do whatever they please, I won't lose one minute of sleep over it. I wasn't going back to reread anything in that thread anyway.
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pieter, aka pegelli

pegelli

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #57 on: October 08, 2017, 01:58:29 pm »

The under Hillary.
I think you were very happy that a "under Hillary" never happened, so there is no comparison.
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pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #58 on: October 08, 2017, 02:00:18 pm »

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump IV (what did you expect?)
« Reply #59 on: October 08, 2017, 02:01:55 pm »


I know you are smarter than this, Pieter, arguing against elementary statistical knowledge (you are pro-science, I remember).

But all that actually has nothing to do with my original statement: "The stock market, reaching historic heights, apparently thinks the future is much rosier under Trump."

For the uninitiated, markets reflect expectations about FUTURE returns.
Pick me up off the floor, I'm convulsing with laughter.  This is such a simplistic statement that I hope you are not an investor in individual stocks.  As Ben Graham once said, "Mr. Market gives and Mr. Market takes away."  The expectations about future returns are irrational as one can never predict the future.

Regarding the graph that I referenced earlier regarding the rise in stock prices under Obama and Trump, of course this is just silliness as are most all of the posts in this and the other Trump threads (some contributed by yours truly).  One can find statistics that will tell all kinds of stories.  This and the other thread on guns are not based on any truth but rather individual perceptions of the various participants.  As such, it's highly doubtful that anyone's mind will change.
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