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Author Topic: Skepticism about Climate Change  (Read 291830 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #920 on: September 04, 2017, 01:59:41 am »

Quote
What more proof do you need?

Interestingly, in the same period, the male swimming garments have lengthened.


1970


2017
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Ray

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #921 on: September 07, 2017, 08:34:14 am »

There's no doubt that the recent hurricanes such as Harvey and Irma, which are unusually intense, will tend to confirm the alarmists' view  that CO2 is the cause, and that we can prevent a recurrence of such extreme events by reducing CO2 levels.

Once the 'meme' of extreme weather events being associated with CO2 rises has been created, then every extreme weather event tends to confirm the 'meme' in the uninformed imagination of the general public.

The population and size of Houston is equivalent to, or even greater than, an entire civilization in the past. Civilizations in the past have been destroyed by a series of extreme weather events that have nothing to do with human emissions of CO2.

The destruction of such civilizations in the past has occurred because of an inability to adapt to the catastrophes, a lack of support from other nearby civilizations, and even an invasion from unfriendly neighbouring civilizations which have taken the opportunity to attack their weakened enemy.

The destruction of the Khmer civilization in Cambodia (around the Angkor Wat area) is just one example. A series of prolonged droughts followed by a series of extreme floods, in the 14th century AD, weakened the civilization so much that their neighbouring enemy, the Thais, took the opportunity to attack, and they prevailed. The population had already begun to desert the area before the invasion, and after the Thai conquest the entire area was deserted and the temples became lost in the jungle until the French colonialists discovered the ruins in the 19th century.

Is it a coincidence that this rapid change in climate took place around the time of the transition from the MWP to the LIA in Europe. Has anyone informed Michael Mann about this?
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HSakols

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #922 on: September 07, 2017, 07:46:10 pm »

Science is only real if you have cancer! 
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #923 on: September 07, 2017, 08:26:05 pm »

Science is only real if you have cancer!

Well, while I don't dispute the cancer scenario, try explaining that/'only' to the people who got (and still may get) hit by the 'Harvey' and 'Irma' (and developing 'Juan') hurricanes.
Science is pretty real all of the time ...

Cheers,
Bart
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HSakols

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #924 on: September 07, 2017, 08:38:06 pm »

I was being cynical.  I guess I shouldn't do that. 
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #925 on: September 07, 2017, 09:01:55 pm »

I was being cynical.  I guess I shouldn't do that.

No problem, just add an emoticon, e.g.  :'(

Cheers,
Bart

P.S. Irma and Florida: Confidence in the hurricane’s forecast track is growing
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/destination-florida-how-confident-we-can-be-in-hurricane-irmas-track/
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 09:16:49 pm by BartvanderWolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #926 on: September 08, 2017, 10:24:18 am »

No problem, just add an emoticon, e.g.  :'(

Cheers,
Bart

P.S. Irma and Florida: Confidence in the hurricane’s forecast track is growing
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/destination-florida-how-confident-we-can-be-in-hurricane-irmas-track/
How can you trust climate change computer models whose results won't happen for 50 years if you can't predict where hurricanes will land one or two days before they do?  The European hurricane model runs around 50 models and the America one runs about 20.  Yet people are running around evacuating their homes when they might not even be effected.  Yet, we want to spend trillions on climate change because someone's global warning computer model says so.  The same people who do the hurricane models probably do the climate change ones as well.  The whole thing is too "iffy". 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #927 on: September 08, 2017, 11:16:30 am »

How can you trust climate change computer models whose results won't happen for 50 years if you can't predict where hurricanes will land one or two days before they do?


Simple. Hurricanes are local weather events, and climate change is long term (decades) trends.

Trends are easy, the weather isn't.

Cheers,
Bart
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scyth

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #928 on: September 08, 2017, 11:30:25 am »

Yet people are running around evacuating their homes when they might not even be effected. 

we shall stop all subsidies for flood insurance and similar insurances and let the nature move the people where they have to ...
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kers

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #929 on: September 08, 2017, 11:43:58 am »

.. Yet, we want to spend trillions on climate change because someone's global warning computer model says so.

we already spend trillions on climate change by burning immense quantities of gasoline ;)
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #930 on: September 08, 2017, 11:49:10 am »

we already spend trillions on climate change by burning immense quantities of gasoline ;)

And we spend billions on repairing the damages (e.g. Harvey aftermath), year after year after year ...
Not to mention the death-toll.

Let's hope Irma (possibly the largest (cloud size of France), most powerful (category 6 if it existed on the scale that ends at 5), and longest lasting (multiple days at full force), hurricane in the Atlantic since recorded history) follows the most beneficial path, but it's instead likely to wreak havoc over Florida and further up north.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 11:55:01 am by BartvanderWolf »
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LesPalenik

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #931 on: September 08, 2017, 11:54:16 am »

Beside many other problems related to warmer ocean temperatures, we are now witnessing highly destructive hurricanes - Harvey, Irma and the developing Jose and Katia (category 3). Four major hurricanes in such a short time is an unprecedented and a very costly situation.

This is no Fake news, but a real evidence of the effects of global warming,  it should be a wake-up call for all the deniers.
Harvey cost is estimated at 180 billions, Irma's cost may be similar, those billions add up fast.
If that is not enough evidence, you can add serious erosions of the northern coastlines that are caused by warmer winters (no ice to mitigate destructive winter storms that cause huge and powerful waves).
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #932 on: September 08, 2017, 12:23:04 pm »

Yet people are running around evacuating their homes when they might not even be effected. 
Yah, because being safe is just plain stupid. 

And it's "affected". 

Quote
Yet, we want to spend trillions on climate change because someone's global warning computer model says so.

But we are willing to spend trillions on invading other countries.  Because, well, just because.

Actually, as has been said many times before, it's 97% of the world's scientists not somebody's "global warning computer"
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #933 on: September 08, 2017, 12:36:33 pm »


Simple. Hurricanes are local weather events, and climate change is long term (decades) trends.

Trends are easy, the weather isn't.

Cheers,
Bart
How could you possibly know that?. Maybe twenty years from now some other thing like a sunspot or other geologic change will affect climate change as well. You don't know those things either. To argue one is simpler than the other is just not accurate.

EricV

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #934 on: September 08, 2017, 12:54:02 pm »

Alan, if I put a pot of water on the stove and turn on the heat, I cannot predict when and where every little bubble will form, and I may not be able to predict with great accuracy when the water will boil, but I am confident that it will eventually boil.  I can improve my prediction by measuring the volume of the water, estimating rate at which heat is being applied, and observing the initial small increase in temperature over time.  My prediction for when the water will boil will probably not be perturbed too much by sunspots I failed to observe and include in my model.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #935 on: September 08, 2017, 12:54:26 pm »

How could you possibly know that?. Maybe twenty years from now some other thing like a sunspot or other geologic change will affect climate change as well. You don't know those things either. To argue one is simpler than the other is just not accurate.

One or two events in a string of 20 years of multiple events do not change a trend notably.

20 years of increasing events are a trend.

Simple.

Temperatures are rising, warmer ocean water creates stronger hurricanes with more evaporated water, warmer air takes up more water,  increased precipitation results during hurricanes.

Simple trend.



Cheers,
Bart
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #936 on: September 08, 2017, 02:45:47 pm »

What We Know about the Climate Change–Hurricane Connection
Some links are indisputable; others are more subtle, but the science is improving all the time
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/what-we-know-about-the-climate-change-hurricane-connection/

"With Texas just beginning to recover from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Harvey and the Southeastern U.S. preparing for Hurricane Irma's iminent arrival, people are naturally asking the question: What role might human-caused climate change be playing in all of this?
[...]
There are certain indisputable linkages that we can talk about immediately because they have already been vetted in general rather than for any specific storm.

For example, even if we could say nothing else, we can conclude that sea level rise has contributed to the coastal flooding associated with recent major hurricanes:
[...]
What about the increasing strength of these storms? Here, too, the science is fairly conclusive.

Whether or not we see more tropical storms (a matter of continuing research by the scientific community), we know that the strongest storms are getting stronger, with roughly eight meters per second increase in wind speed per degree Celsius of warming.
[...]
Furthermore, a warmer ocean surface means more moisture in the atmosphere. A fundamental rule of atmospheric thermodynamics known as the Clausius-Clapeyron equation indicates an increase of roughly 7 percent more moisture in the air for each degree Celsius of increase in sea surface temperature (SST).
[...]
The second approach to understanding the linkage between human activity and extreme weather involves a sort of climatological “CSI”—running simulations of a climate model both with and without the impact of human-generated greenhouse gas increases, seeking to detect a trend and attribute the event in question in part to those increases.
[...]
we now can attribute individual events in a probabilistic sense. For example, if a baseball player on steroids is hitting 20 percent more home runs, we can’t attribute a particular home run to steroids. But we can say steroids made it 20 percent more likely to have occurred. For some of the physical processes discussed here, one can view increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as steroids for the storms.
[...]
We need to use all of the tools in the toolbox to address these scientific questions. It would be impudent, however, to conclude that we must wait for the results of formal detection and attribution studies before we can say anything about the effects of climate change on hurricanes as they are happening. There is much that we know based on physics, and we should state those things clearly and immediately, as they can provide insights that can help guide people as they begin to recover and plan for the future. "




Cheers,
Bart
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #937 on: September 08, 2017, 02:46:14 pm »

What We Know about the Climate Change–Hurricane Connection
Some links are indisputable; others are more subtle, but the science is improving all the time
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/what-we-know-about-the-climate-change-hurricane-connection/

QUOTES "With Texas just beginning to recover from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Harvey and the Southeastern U.S. preparing for Hurricane Irma's iminent arrival, people are naturally asking the question: What role might human-caused climate change be playing in all of this?
[...]
There are certain indisputable linkages that we can talk about immediately because they have already been vetted in general rather than for any specific storm.

For example, even if we could say nothing else, we can conclude that sea level rise has contributed to the coastal flooding associated with recent major hurricanes:
[...]
What about the increasing strength of these storms? Here, too, the science is fairly conclusive.

Whether or not we see more tropical storms (a matter of continuing research by the scientific community), we know that the strongest storms are getting stronger, with roughly eight meters per second increase in wind speed per degree Celsius of warming.
[...]
Furthermore, a warmer ocean surface means more moisture in the atmosphere. A fundamental rule of atmospheric thermodynamics known as the Clausius-Clapeyron equation indicates an increase of roughly 7 percent more moisture in the air for each degree Celsius of increase in sea surface temperature (SST).
[...]
The second approach to understanding the linkage between human activity and extreme weather involves a sort of climatological “CSI”—running simulations of a climate model both with and without the impact of human-generated greenhouse gas increases, seeking to detect a trend and attribute the event in question in part to those increases.
[...]
we now can attribute individual events in a probabilistic sense. For example, if a baseball player on steroids is hitting 20 percent more home runs, we can’t attribute a particular home run to steroids. But we can say steroids made it 20 percent more likely to have occurred. For some of the physical processes discussed here, one can view increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as steroids for the storms.
[...]
We need to use all of the tools in the toolbox to address these scientific questions. It would be impudent, however, to conclude that we must wait for the results of formal detection and attribution studies before we can say anything about the effects of climate change on hurricanes as they are happening. There is much that we know based on physics, and we should state those things clearly and immediately, as they can provide insights that can help guide people as they begin to recover and plan for the future. "




Cheers,
Bart
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #938 on: September 08, 2017, 02:51:14 pm »

And one more for Alan:



How hard can it be to predict a trend????

Each and every year it is higher. Wanna bet on next year being lower?

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #939 on: September 08, 2017, 05:28:00 pm »

And one more for Alan:



How hard can it be to predict a trend????

Each and every year it is higher. Wanna bet on next year being lower?

Cheers,
Bart

Hurricanes aren't following an increase in quantity based on an Increase of CO2 warm water in the ocean or warmer temperatures in the air. See attached chart. So therefore, why not? Why aren't there more storms every year? Obviously there are other factors. So the computer programs are not accurate even for climate change. We don't have all of the facts that should be the algorithm.

I remember a few years ago when there were a lot of hurricanes. The climatologists predicted that there would continue. Funny thing happened. They actually decreased and the climatologists were wrong.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.asp
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