Pages: 1 ... 40 41 [42] 43 44 ... 72   Go Down

Author Topic: Skepticism about Climate Change  (Read 285866 times)

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #820 on: August 06, 2017, 05:34:48 pm »

I don't know what you have been smoking, but it's a study by, and for the European commission, because, as the first paragraph of the report says (emphasis is mine):
So there was a lack of information to build policies on, hence a study was conducted to fill that information gap. Obviously, they paid for that themselves, as was stated in the report's summary.

In the report itself there is also more information:
Why not? They used such a period because the projections could then be subdivided into several equally long periods (reference period  (1981–2010)  up to the  year 2100 (2011–40,  2041–70,  and  2071–2100). It's described in the second paragraph of the report. Besides, in 30 year reference period, enough people have died from climate or demographic changes to get reliable statistics and there was enough high-quality data available in the reference period.

Who are you blaming here, and for covering the news?

Already many too people die each year from heat and cold related stress. Is it so strange that we want to get a handle on that and prevent it from getting much worse? Maybe your government should start worrying a bit more about the health of its citizens?

How many people are going to die in the USA from heat or cold stress in this century? If you don't know, then why not?

Cheers,
Bart
Bart, The study was done with a wink and a nod.  The researchers were paid by the climate change Commisssion to do the research.  Of course, the research supports what the Commission supports.  What really makes them subservient was they're pushing the Commisssion's intent of purpose.  The whole study is BS and then 100's of news articles were created to support the phony report to hoodwink the gullible public.  One group lies and the other swears to it.  It's this kind of stuff that gives ammunition to deniers that the whole global warming thing must be phony.  Your side is shooting itself in the foot. 

The researcher's summary that I'll repeat here, is full of opinion that supports the Commission's mandate.  After all, even if the research was accurate, there are other ways to mitigate the deaths beside changing the weather.  Regardless, the research paper's summary is really a political statement.  It does not belong in a science research paper.   I bolded the particular political points since you apparently missed them on your first read.


"This study contributes to the ongoing debate about the need to urgently curb climate change and minimise its unavoidable consequences, as emphasised by the Paris Agreement built on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Our findings shed light on the expected burden of climate on societies across different regions of Europe. The substantial rise in risk of weather-related hazards to human beings due to global warming, population growth, and urbanisation highlights the need for stringent climate mitigation policies and appropriate adaptation and risk reduction measures to minimise the future effect of weather-related extremes on human lives. In that respect, our results are particularly relevant for the first priority action “understanding disaster risk” of the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and objective two “promoting better informed decision-making by addressing gaps in knowledge” of the European Union Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change."

Bart_van_der_Wolf

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8919
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #821 on: August 06, 2017, 07:21:37 pm »

Bart, The study was done with a wink and a nod.  The researchers were paid by the climate change Commisssion to do the research.

Well, Sherlock Holmes, they said so themselves, "Funding European Commission."

Quote
Of course, the research supports what the Commission supports.  What really makes them subservient was they're pushing the Commisssion's intent of purpose.  The whole study is BS ...

So which parts do you specifically disagree with, are the databases not correct, or are the models wrong, if so how, etc. ...

Quote
... and then 100's of news articles were created to support the phony report to hoodwink the gullible public.

Are you suggesting they wrote those articles themselves?

Quote
The researcher's summary that I'll repeat here, is full of opinion that supports the Commission's mandate.  After all, even if the research was accurate, there are other ways to mitigate the deaths beside changing the weather.  Regardless, the research paper's summary is really a political statement.  It does not belong in a science research paper.   I bolded the particular political points since you apparently missed them on your first read.

"This study contributes to the ongoing debate ...

Yes, there was a gap in the information, and the study contributes by filling in the gap. What's wrong with that?

Quote
... about the need to urgently curb climate change and minimise its unavoidable consequences, as emphasised by the Paris Agreement built on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Yes, they are repeating what the debate is about.


Quote
Our findings shed light on the expected burden of climate on societies across different regions of Europe. The substantial rise in risk of weather-related hazards to human beings due to global warming, population growth, and urbanisation highlights the need for stringent climate mitigation policies and appropriate adaptation and risk reduction measures to minimise the future effect of weather-related extremes on human lives.

So, their findings are that there is a substantial risk. They didn't know that as a fact before, but now they do, under the assumption of a scenario of no adaptation.

Quote
In that respect, our results are particularly relevant for the first priority action “understanding disaster risk” of the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and objective two “promoting better informed decision-making by addressing gaps in knowledge” of the European Union Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change."[/i]

So they find the study relevant for the first priority action that's formulated by the UN, and for better-informed decision making. Well, since the information was missing before this study was conducted, I suppose they're right, now there is information that was lacking before conducting the study. So I guess that makes the findings relevant.

Again, I think you're seeing things that are not there.

Cheers,
Bart
Logged
== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Ray

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 10475
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #822 on: August 06, 2017, 11:28:07 pm »

After all, even if the research was accurate, there are other ways to mitigate the deaths beside changing the weather. 

Good point, Alan. We already know in principle how to mitigate deaths from extreme weather events. During a heat wave, one should turn on the air-conditioner in one's home. Most people who live in cities can travel to their air-conditioned office in an air-conditioned bus, or step from their air-conditioned home into their air-conditioned car.

I imagine in Europe there might be many people who don't have air-conditioners in their home and who rely upon wood fires to heat their home in winter. Solution? Install an air-conditioner. An unsubsidised air-conditioner is a lot cheaper than an unsubsidised solar panel on the roof.

As regards floods and storms, a good indication of the risk factor is to look at the historical record of previous floods and storms in the region, then ensure that one's home is built to withstand the worst flood or storm on record, adding a bit of extra safety in case there occurs a truly, unprecedented, extreme weather event, which is rare.
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #823 on: August 06, 2017, 11:37:12 pm »

Bart,  Their research was slanted to support the commission's objective.   Its phony as a 3 dollar bill.

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18208
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #824 on: August 07, 2017, 12:23:48 am »

...Solution? Install an air-conditioner...

Are you by any chance a descendent of Marie Antoinette?  :D

Ray

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 10475
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #825 on: August 07, 2017, 01:48:58 am »

Are you by any chance a descendent of Marie Antoinette?  :D

Certainly not. I would never advise people to eat cake. If they can't afford an air-conditioner, I would advise them to stop eating cake, eat bread instead, and the save the money in order to buy an air-conditioner.  ;D
Logged

Ray

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 10475
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #826 on: August 07, 2017, 03:44:50 am »

It's from the table I attached, you can find the original, on page 110 of the WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf document.

Thanks for that. I now see what's happening. I was a bit sloppy for not reading the chart.

However, I was quoting from a more detailed summary of the conclusions drawn from the available records of the past, on page 50 of the same report, whereas you were quoting from effectively a summary of a summary, which is very brief, in table form, doesn't address the issue of floods, but does include computer projections into the late 21st century

My comments clearly referred to average global changes in floods droughts and cyclones for the period from 1950 to the early 21st century. I would expect there would always be regional changes in extreme weather events, regardless of any effects of CO2. Nothing remains static, especially climate, and especially climate in a particular region.

In fact, all climate changes take place on a regional basis. The global climate is an averaging of all the regional changes.
The table you quoted from, states a low confidence for any increases in the intensity of droughts and cyclones, globally, for this period which my comments related to.

On page 50 of the same report there is the following summary regarding floods.

"With high confidence, floods larger than recorded since the 20th century occurred during the past five centuries in northern and central Europe, the western Mediterranean region and eastern Asia. There is medium confidence that in the Near East, India and central North America, modern large floods are comparable or surpass historical floods in magnitude and/or frequency."

Now, here we have the opposite of low confidence due to a lack of data, and instead, high confidence due to an abundance of data. Rephrasing the summary, for extra clarity, it's basically stating that floods during the Little Ice Age were greater than any recorded flood event during the 20th century, with the possible exception of the Near East, India and central North America.

However, the term medium confidence is a bit confusing in relation to the statement, "There is medium confidence that in the Near East, India and central North America, modern large floods are comparable or surpass historical floods in magnitude and/or frequency."

Logically, if you increase the number of states or conditions, the confidence increases that one of the states will be true.
Therefore, it would be logically correct to deduce, if there is medium confidence that modern large floods in the Near East, India and central North America are comparable or surpass the worst floods during the past 500 years, there can be only low confidence that the modern floods in these regions are comparable, and low confidence that they surpass the historical floods.

If anyone doubts this, consider the degree of confidence that would apply if we were to introduce a third condition or state, such as 'less'.
We could then declare with absolute confidence that modern floods, anywhere, are either comparable, surpass, or are less than the worst floods during the past 500 years. Agreed?  ;)



Logged

Ray

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 10475
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #827 on: August 07, 2017, 07:21:44 am »

In post #786 Bart writes

"I just acquired an interesting book, as recommended by a highly respected Meteorologist, that deals with the psychology surrounding the issue more than the issue of global warming itself.
It's titled: What we think about, when we try not to think about, global warming - by Per Espen Stoknes."
https://www.amazon.com/What-Think-About-Global-Warming/dp/1603585834"


I checked out some Youtube videos of Per Espen Stoknes views, and it seems clear he is on the bandwagon of AGW certainty. He recommends certain tactics to dispel the skepticism or disinterest amongst the science-illiterate public, that CO2-induced climate change is a major problem which should be tackled urgently.

In other words, his book seems to be about 'how best to trick the population into believing that that CO2 emissions are a serious problem.'
Perhaps Bart can correct me.

Per Espen Stoknes looks relatively young and innocent, and some of his proposals didn't make sense to me, such as suggesting that Insurance Companies should offer insurance for property owners, against extreme weather events caused by climate change.

Even the experts in the alarmist camp sometimes are forced to admit, to protect their reputation, that one cannot attribute the cause of any particular extreme weather event to climate change.

In Australia, many people have been 'caught out' by not reading the fine print in their insurance policy. They've erroneously believed they were insured for damage from all floods, not realising that riverine floods were not included.

There are sometimes flash floods during heavy precipitation, that occur in  very localised areas, and are caused by alterations to the landscape in urban areas. These events are rare and unpredictable, so insurance companies tend to cover them.

Riverine flooding is in a different category, because the historical records show a clear risk. If you build your house in a 'flood plain', the risk of flooding is dramatically increased, as is the cost of your insurance policy to cover such predictable events.

This is the introduction to my post. My main purpose is to give my own psychological and philosophical perspective of the alarmism about climate change.

Natural life in general is usually free to roam to whatever conditions that are favourable. Fish in the oceans will swim to wherever part of the ocean they feel more comfortable. If the climate is uncomfortably warm in a particular area, the birds and wildlife will migrate to a cooler place.

The fundamental principle of evolution is adaption, sometime describe as survival of the fittest. Our early ancestors were able to walk from Africa to other regions on the planet because sea levels were so low. The Aboriginals of Australia didn't need boats to arrive in Australia. They walked across areas which are now oceans, or straits.

During those days, people did not have fixed abodes. They were free to wander to whatever areas and conditions that were more suitable.
When civilization began, about 12,000 years ago, the building of cities and the farming of land tended to lock people into a specific location. They were no longer as free to wander to the best environment.

As civilizations further developed, with massive construction of cities and suburbs, this anchoring to one location increased.
When people have their jobs and homes anchored to one place, the incentive to prevent any change in anything that might affect their security, becomes a major concern.

If someone proposes, in the modern era, that changes in climate can be combated by reducing CO2 levels, and that it will benefit everyone on the planet, then it's understandable there will be a great attraction to the idea, by those who don't investigate the issue for themselves and/or use a modicum of common sense.

There's an understandable tendency to seek an over all solution which will stop any change. The idea that we can do that by simply reducing the rise of CO2 levels, is very attractive, but very crazy.  ;D
« Last Edit: August 07, 2017, 08:46:00 am by Ray »
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #828 on: August 07, 2017, 08:56:40 am »

Certainly not. I would never advise people to eat cake. If they can't afford an air-conditioner, I would advise them to stop eating cake, eat bread instead, and the save the money in order to buy an air-conditioner.  ;D

Air conditioning is a very reasonable solution especially for rich Europe. After all, the entire American south is much hotter than the average European temperature.  Even if Europe went up two degrees, it still would be a lot cooler than the South.   Yet, you don't see Southerners abandoning their homes for cooler climes.  People adapt.  Florida is brutally hot and humid, especially in the Summer.  If it wasn't for air conditioning, people would abandon the state to the alligators. 

Here's what Korean researchers said about the research into increase death due to temperature changes.

'People can adapt'
"Experts from South Korea's Seoul National University warned that the study's results "could be overestimated".
"People are known to adapt and become less vulnerable than previously to extreme weather conditions because of advances in medical technology, air conditioning, and thermal insulation in houses," they wrote in a comment piece published in the same journal. "

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40835663

Even if the research was accurate regarding deaths, the researchers recommendation to follow the commission's charter for climate change in their research report was not based on their research for the report.  It was a statement of support that had no place being there.  The research didn't examine the commission's objectives.  So, the cozy relationship is suspect.  I can imagine Bart screaming if a report finding opposite conclusions came out issued by researchers working for and whose research was paid for by the oil industry.


Interestingly, I checked some statistics for America which has both huge hot and huge cold areas similar to Europe.

"The CDC reported a total of 7,233 heat-related deaths in the U.S. between the years of 1999-2009. In that time, an average of 658 people died of heat-related causes each year" These numbers seem a lot less than the research reports would predict for conditions in Europe that would not be much different than America's. 
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/prolonged-exposure-to-heat-cho/26887488

Another interesting study shows hotter weather is safer than colder weather.  So warming up a little might actually prevent deaths.
"The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/05/20/cold-weather-deaths/27657269/
It seems you have a better chance of freezing to death than boiling to death. :)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8919
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #829 on: August 07, 2017, 11:44:37 am »

Air conditioning is a very reasonable solution especially for rich Europe. After all, the entire American south is much hotter than the average European temperature.  Even if Europe went up two degrees, it still would be a lot cooler than the South.   Yet, you don't see Southerners abandoning their homes for cooler climes.  People adapt.  Florida is brutally hot and humid, especially in the Summer.  If it wasn't for air conditioning, people would abandon the state to the alligators.

Yes, that's a typical reaction for many cultures. Do not address the cause, but fight the result. Curative (short term solution) rather than preventative (longer term solution). Maybe Western European thinking is more focused on prevention. But do not overlook the simple fact that (mostly) elderly people have a harder time to regulate their body temperature, and Demographics show a large surge of Babyboomers from after WW II reaching very high ages. That's why such studies need models to include such variables.

Obviously one can (and should) use such (short term) fixes as AirConditioners if lives are at stake but they also add to the longer term problems if they are powered by Coal plants. That's why we are going more in the direction of  Heat exchange units and Warm/Cold storage facilities that use a fraction of the electricity of a common AC, or more clever ways of keeping the heat out of buildings in the summer and keep the cold out in the winter. New building codes aim for energy neutral building practices, where each house/building generates as much power as it consumes, which is cheaper to achieve if it consumes less ... Prevention is better than cure, again.

Quote
Interestingly, I checked some statistics for America which has both huge hot and huge cold areas similar to Europe.

Well done! In fact, there are more deaths caused by cold than are caused by heat in the USA.

That's not solved by Air conditioners.

Quote
Another interesting study shows hotter weather is safer than colder weather.  So warming up a little might actually prevent deaths.

I knew that and anticipated such a response.

The thing you are overlooking is that it's not the average temperature that's killing people, but the higher extremes ...

Cheers,
Bart
Logged
== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #830 on: August 07, 2017, 03:51:56 pm »

The article said it wasn't the extremes that killed people if I remember correctly.

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5338
    • advantica blog
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #831 on: August 07, 2017, 07:02:08 pm »

The article said it wasn't the extremes that killed people if I remember correctly.

It could be interpreted that way. If the average temperature rises by one degree and people are exposed to it for 9o years, some of them would die in that period.
However, if exposed to the extreme temperatures on either end, they would die much quicker.
Logged

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18208
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #832 on: August 07, 2017, 09:00:10 pm »

...However, if exposed to the extreme temperatures on either end, they would die much quicker.

Another positive effect of the global warming! There are too many of us on this planet anyway ;)

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18208
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #833 on: August 07, 2017, 09:14:52 pm »

Another positive effect of the global warming! There are too many of us on this planet anyway ;)

Damn! I spoke too soon... looks like weather disasters are actually DECREASING (bold mine):

https://riskfrontiers.com/weather-related-natural-disasters-should-we-be-concerned-about-a-reversion-to-the-mean/

Quote
Data on floods, drought and tornadoes are similar in that they show little to no indication of becoming more severe or frequent.  The IPCC concludes:

“There continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.”
“There is low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes and hail.”
“There is low confidence in detection and attribution of changes in drought over global land areas since the mid-20th century.”

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #834 on: August 07, 2017, 11:59:03 pm »

It could be interpreted that way. If the average temperature rises by one degree and people are exposed to it for 9o years, some of them would die in that period.
However, if exposed to the extreme temperatures on either end, they would die much quicker.
Les, people adapt to the extremes.  They don't go outside when it's so cold or so warm.  So at the extremes, there are less deaths.  I see that where I live, a retirement community.  The older more vulnerable just don't leave the house if it's snowing, or too cold or too hot.  The only people I see are the dog walkers.  I watch them through my window trying to pick up the doo doo in the snow as I'm sipping on my morning coffee feeling all toasty.   Sometimes I tap on my window and wave at them, smiling. :)

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #835 on: August 08, 2017, 12:06:12 am »

Damn! I spoke too soon... looks like weather disasters are actually DECREASING (bold mine):

https://riskfrontiers.com/weather-related-natural-disasters-should-we-be-concerned-about-a-reversion-to-the-mean/

You're confusing the climate change advocates.  Stop it.

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5338
    • advantica blog
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #836 on: August 08, 2017, 12:20:20 am »

Damn! I spoke too soon... looks like weather disasters are actually DECREASING (bold mine):

https://riskfrontiers.com/weather-related-natural-disasters-should-we-be-concerned-about-a-reversion-to-the-mean/

It depends on where do you live.
Luckily, the weather in Ontario in the last few years has been more moderate than before. At least to me it seems more moderate. Summers not too hot, and winters also more tolerable. However, Europe has experienced lately very extreme weather. Last week, areas in Europe have been experiencing their most extreme temperatures in 10 years. Highs of 44 Celsius have been recorded in places such as Italy and Albania.

Quote
"unless global warming is curbed as a matter of urgency," some 350 million Europeans could be exposed to harmful climate extremes on an annual basis by the end of the century.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/europe-heat-waves-1.4236629
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #837 on: August 08, 2017, 12:55:18 am »

It depends on where do you live.
Luckily, the weather in Ontario in the last few years has been more moderate than before. At least to me it seems more moderate. Summers not too hot, and winters also more tolerable. However, Europe has experienced lately very extreme weather. Last week, areas in Europe have been experiencing their most extreme temperatures in 10 years. Highs of 44 Celsius have been recorded in places such as Italy and Albania.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/europe-heat-waves-1.4236629

It rained today.  Yesterday, the weatherman promised nice weather but got it wrong.  Again.  I'm really ticked off at him. 

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5338
    • advantica blog
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #838 on: August 08, 2017, 01:17:36 am »

It rained today.  Yesterday, the weatherman promised nice weather but got it wrong.  Again.  I'm really ticked off at him.

Very strange! It rained here also and our weatherman is exactly like yours. 
Logged

Eric Myrvaagnes

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 22813
  • http://myrvaagnes.com
    • http://myrvaagnes.com
Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #839 on: August 08, 2017, 08:37:01 am »

Now I get it. All climate change is the weatherman's fault!   :o
Logged
-Eric Myrvaagnes (visit my website: http://myrvaagnes.com)
Pages: 1 ... 40 41 [42] 43 44 ... 72   Go Up