The Climate Change Hoax

[Ray]

Another reason why Australian governments might be reluctant to do the right thing and build more flood mitigation dams, is due to the mantra often repeated by AGW alrmists, that the Australian climate will become drier as a result of rising CO2 levels, so maybe the politicians think that flooding events will become less of a problem because current CO2 levels are claimed to persist for another 1,000 years or so, even if we succeed in reducing our emissions.

I experienced myself a major flood in Brisbane in early 2011. The previous major flood on a similar scale occurred in 1974. It was of course, at the time, described as the worst flood ever recorded, but BOM records show it was the 7th worst on record. Refer article below, showing graphs of previous flood heights.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml

The extent of the damage from the 2011 flood was so great, the Queensland state government initiated an enquiry as to what went wrong, because we had already built a flood mitigation dam after 1974 to prevent another major flood occurring.

Of course, the enquiry never really got to the nub of the issue, and instead concentrated on lots of side issues such as the wording of the manual for those in charge of controlling the water levels in the flood mitigation dam.

However, from my unbiased perspective, it seems clear that the effects of the long drought that preceded the 2011 floods, caused a reluctance to use the dam as a flood mitigation dam, and instead offered the opportunity to fill the dam after many years of being nearly empty.

Such an attitude would likely have been influenced by prominent Australian AGW alarmists such as Tim Flannery who's on record as claiming that Australia can expect a drier climate as a result of CO2 emissions, and he said this whilst the drought was in process. It's perhaps understandable that the dam operators grabbed the opportunity to fill the dam, with all the best intentions no doubt, despite the fact that doing so eliminated the dam's purpose as a flood mitigation dam. They probably thought that floods were on the wane in Australia because of rising CO2 levels. (This is just my opinion. I don't intend to defame anyone.)

This is another example of the way that exaggerations about AGW can have a negative effect on our security and well-being.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

And as far as our wellbeing is concerned and (almost immediately quantifiably) affected by coal power plants:

Nuclear power policy in the ’80s caused low birth weights after coal stepped in:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/04/low-birth-weights-found-in-areas-where-coal-replaced-nuclear-power-in-the-80s/

It's much better to prevent such things from happening (or continue doing so), than trying to cure the effects after the damage has been done.

Cheers,
Bart

[Ray]

And as far as our wellbeing is concerned and (almost immediately quantifiably) affected by coal power plants:

Nuclear power policy in the ’80s caused low birth weights after coal stepped in:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/04/low-birth-weights-found-in-areas-where-coal-replaced-nuclear-power-in-the-80s/

It's much better to prevent such things from happening (or continue doing so), than trying to cure the effects after the damage has been done.

Cheers,
Bart

"...those closures may have caused reduced birth weight in children in the area at the time........That led to increases in particle pollution in areas adjacent to coal power plants, measured by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in total suspended particulates (TSP)."


Seems that the problem was due to particulate carbon, not CO2. Modern Ultra-Supercritial coal-fired power plants do not emit particulate carbon and the other real pollutants, such as SO2, Nitrogen Oxides and heavy metals. Problem solved.

Gosh! You are an alarmist, Bart. 

[Alan Goldhammer]

I assume the solar company provides a warranty for any damage they do to the roof during installation.  I was referring to regular roof replacement due to age.  You have to deal then with the costs to temporarily remove and reinstall the solar system.  How much is that?  What about warranties by the company doing the solar work?  How do you get electricity into your home during the roofing replacement?  What if you're off the grid entirely because of batteries during the work?

I don't think any of the homes around here are off the grid.  They stay hooked up and sell excess power back to the electric utility (they get a credit on their bill).  the roofing issue is one that I think is underrated.  Most fiberglass roofing shingles do not have the life that they are advertised for.  We have been in our house for 33 years and done two roof replacements because of age.  The first was five years after we had been in the house and the second seven years ago.  Shingles do not last as long in areas where there are real winters and summers.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Yes, I have seen several comments being sceptical about this approach. Nevertheless Tesla has announced such tiles which will begin delivery this year http://nordic.businessinsider.com/tesla-solar-roof-solar-city-features-2017-2?r=US&IR=T

I'm skeptical about this.  I followed the Dow Chemical R&D on solar shingles as it looked like an interesting alternative to the panels.  The shingles were not as efficient as the panels and more expensive to produce.  The ROI was not there compared to the panels.  I look forward to the Tesla field work.  As far as I know they are not being marketed in the US.

[Alan Goldhammer]

What must be puzzling for many people is why the government doesn't take measures to eliminate, or at least reduce the effects of such floods. Surely the total cost of the damage and disruption to economic activity, which occurs every 20 years or so, must be higher than the cost of fixing the problem.

Maybe they don't spend money in Australia but they certainly do in the US.  A large amount of money has been spend over the years in the US building dams and levees in rivers prone to flooding.  this link might be instructive:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Mississippi_Flood_of_1927  I'm sure that this was far worse of a disaster than any that has occurred in Australia.  There are other flood control districts in the US as well.

[DeanChriss]

"Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers."

http://www.pnas.org/content/107/27/12107.full.pdf

[Hans Kruse]

I'm skeptical about this.  I followed the Dow Chemical R&D on solar shingles as it looked like an interesting alternative to the panels.  The shingles were not as efficient as the panels and more expensive to produce.  The ROI was not there compared to the panels.  I look forward to the Tesla field work.  As far as I know they are not being marketed in the US.

They are specifically sold in the US and Tesla says that the cost of the roof is the same or slightly cheaper than similar non-solar roofs and last twice as long and in addition they produce electricity. That's what Tesla and Elon Musk says and expect to believe him given what else he has produced. The questions is how soon they will be available outside of the US but since Tesla now is one company that does the cars, solar panels and roofs and battery storage for both residential and grid use, I expect that all these products will be available world wide over time. We will see.

[Hans Kruse]

Maybe they don't spend money in Australia but they certainly do in the US.  A large amount of money has been spend over the years in the US building dams and levees in rivers prone to flooding.  this link might be instructive:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Mississippi_Flood_of_1927  I'm sure that this was far worse of a disaster than any that has occurred in Australia.  There are other flood control districts in the US as well.

There is quite a lot invested in protecting buildings in cities in Denmark from flooding. There is a lot of work done to lead water away and make the infrastructure robust to lots of rain. We are lucky it is not as bad as many other places in the world. I'm thinking of South America floodings recently.

[Hans Kruse]

Another milestone, if you will, has been reached now that Tesla has passed Ford in market cap. See here http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/03/tesla-shares-surge-to-all-time-high-pushing-its-market-cap-past-fords.html
and just a few billions below GM. Who would have thought that 5 years ago? Yes, some would argue they are not profitable, but they invest huge amounts into new factories (gigafactory 1 and 2) and R&D. Especially ramping up for the production of the model 3. Daimler just announced that they see no future for fuel cell cars http://fortune.com/2017/04/02/daimler-fuel-cell-car-development/
It's interested to see the disruptions within the car industry. Similar disruptions will happen for solar power, storage and the grid. We just have to wait to see what it looks like in 5 years.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Seems that the problem was due to particulate carbon, not CO2. Modern Ultra-Supercritial coal-fired power plants do not emit particulate carbon and the other real pollutants, such as SO2, Nitrogen Oxides and heavy metals. Problem solved.

Not really solved, yet. First, at best a modern coal plant has reduced SO2 and NOx emissions, not zero emissions. Second, not all power plants are modern. Also, the Trump Administration has, instead of creating additional incentives for upgrading, relaxed the restrictions for existing (incl. older) powerplants and infrastructure.

So it's not really a problem solved for the other pollutants, besides the still huge CO2 production. There is an overall improvement, and there remains potential for further improvement, but it's not solved (there are also some facilities that are getting worse).
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-02/documents/facility_level_emission_changes_over_time_2009_vs_2016.pdf

But sure, steady progress is being made with installing improvements to clean up the additional pollution besides CO2:
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-05/documents/coalcontrols_needs515.pdf

A better solution is replacing the coal-powered plants by ones that use less polluting fuel sources, but that take time for the investments to at least break-even (after which incentives could speed up replacement).

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

You do realise that it was a fictional story, not a documentary? Just thought I'd check.

I thought Jurassic Park was a very picturesque way of showing how two people who are very honest and forthright could in any case have their minds totally influenced when money is offered to pay for their research.  While fiction in my example, this human failing is all too often apparent in the real world, even to include climate researchers.

[Alan Klein]

Another milestone, if you will, has been reached now that Tesla has passed Ford in market cap. See here http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/03/tesla-shares-surge-to-all-time-high-pushing-its-market-cap-past-fords.html
and just a few billions below GM. Who would have thought that 5 years ago? Yes, some would argue they are not profitable, but they invest huge amounts into new factories (gigafactory 1 and 2) and R&D. Especially ramping up for the production of the model 3. Daimler just announced that they see no future for fuel cell cars http://fortune.com/2017/04/02/daimler-fuel-cell-car-development/
It's interested to see the disruptions within the car industry. Similar disruptions will happen for solar power, storage and the grid. We just have to wait to see what it looks like in 5 years.

This is why the government should stay out of it and not pick winners and losers.  Free markets will do the best to sort these out. 

[Alan Goldhammer]

They are specifically sold in the US and Tesla says that the cost of the roof is the same or slightly cheaper than similar non-solar roofs and last twice as long and in addition they produce electricity. That's what Tesla and Elon Musk says and expect to believe him given what else he has produced. The questions is how soon they will be available outside of the US but since Tesla now is one company that does the cars, solar panels and roofs and battery storage for both residential and grid use, I expect that all these products will be available world wide over time. We will see.

Thanks for clarifying.  I stopped following the solar shingle technology last year when Dow exited the business.  It will be interesting to see if this technology supplants solar panels given how cheap panels are these days.

[Alan Klein]

I don't think any of the homes around here are off the grid.  They stay hooked up and sell excess power back to the electric utility (they get a credit on their bill).  the roofing issue is one that I think is underrated.  Most fiberglass roofing shingles do not have the life that they are advertised for.  We have been in our house for 33 years and done two roof replacements because of age.  The first was five years after we had been in the house and the second seven years ago.  Shingles do not last as long in areas where there are real winters and summers.

So what are the real costs and savings.  I think the advertised ones are bogus.  I was reading that it costs $150 a year for an annual inspection.  Then $20-30 per panel to have them cleaned annually.  So that's pushing $4-500 a year just for annual upkeep.  What if a baseball hit by your neighbor's kids breaks one of the panel elements?  Another $4-500?  But the big cost seems like when you replace the roof.  I'm not familiar with the installations. I assume the supports go right though the roofing materials to the wood roof below.  That means when the roof is replace, you basically have to completely remove and reinstall the solar system, supports and all.  It's not just a simple matter of the panels.  Or is it?  What about the associate wiring?  Do you need an electrician in additional to the solar installers?  What does this cost?  Most of all, are any of these costs actually included in the figures when "experts" talk about how cheap solar is?

[Alan Klein]

Thanks for clarifying.  I stopped following the solar shingle technology last year when Dow exited the business.  It will be interesting to see if this technology supplants solar panels given how cheap panels are these days.

That seems promising.  The advantages are you don't have to worry about how roof replacement effects the solar system.  It's done at the same time.  The downside is maintenance and repair.  What if you lose some of output due to a failure sort of like when Christmas lights go out when one light goes out on a two wire system?  Now you have to find the problem and remove and replace tiles.  How easy is that compared to replacing a common defective solar panel used today?

Many of these issues will be worked out in "free markets" if the government stay out of it.

[Hans Kruse]

Thanks for clarifying.  I stopped following the solar shingle technology last year when Dow exited the business.  It will be interesting to see if this technology supplants solar panels given how cheap panels are these days.

The way it was presented by Tesla is that the tiles are targeted for where solar panels would not fit (perhaps aesthetically) or a roof was ready for replacement. So instead of putting up a new roof and add solar panels to it, the solar tiles could be used for the new rood at a price similar or below a normal roof. It was said that it would not be economic to replace an already good roof with the new solar tiles. But still it will be interesting to see how it picks up.

[Hans Kruse]

That seems promising.  The advantages are you don't have to worry about how roof replacement effects the solar system.  It's done at the same time.  The downside is maintenance and repair.  What if you lose some of output due to a failure sort of like when Christmas lights go out when one light goes out on a two wire system?  Now you have to find the problem and remove and replace tiles.  How easy is that compared to replacing a common defective solar panel used today?

More info here https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/musk-says-tesla-s-solar-shingles-will-cost-less-than-a-dumb-roof and I didn't hear details about how they are interconnected. But I assume they have thought about how to make it robust not only physically (which they clearly have) but also electrically. It's clearly a high-end product initially so it might be similar to the cars where they also started with a high-end car and then go mainstream with a midsize car in high volume. Tesla drives a lot of innovation these days, but I'm sure others will follow quickly.

[Alan Klein]

More info here https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/musk-says-tesla-s-solar-shingles-will-cost-less-than-a-dumb-roof and I didn't hear details about how they are interconnected. But I assume they have thought about how to make it robust not only physically (which they clearly have) but also electrically. It's clearly a high-end product initially so it might be similar to the cars where they also started with a high-end car and then go mainstream with a midsize car in high volume. Tesla drives a lot of innovation these days, but I'm sure others will follow quickly.

Think of all the possibilities with those solar tiles.  You can paste one on your back to power your heart's pacemaker.  No more scrambling around looking for an AC outlet to charge your iPhone.  Of course, the downside is you can't tell your wife you missed her phone call because the batteries were dead.

[Hans Kruse]

In Norway thet have a lot of EV's and here is a video showing just some of the infrastructure they have now for charging. A bit of the future for most places https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k73-rYe82lI