Poll

Your prediction, not your vote.

Clinton
- 9 (69.2%)
Trump
- 4 (30.8%)
Hung college
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13


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Author Topic: Election predictions  (Read 79706 times)

Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #280 on: December 27, 2016, 10:12:39 am »

[quote author=Alan Klein link=topic=114435.msg950548#msg950548 date=14As more people need jobs, wages will decline and more jobs will be created as it will become affordable to compete with imports.  Of course, we won't be as rich, but that's just the way it is.  We're competing with foreigners who earn less than we're use too.
[/quote]

Alan, that's a path almost exhausted: Brits usually earned way less than Americans, Spanish and most other Europeans even less than us, and the Germans were, for a time, kings of the European heap, though Italy did have its brief "miracle" and if you ever bought a Fiat or an Alfo Romeo (I did both) you soon discovered why it didn't last. So, what happend? As with Japan, once cheap but now not, work moved away never to be replaced. Ask shipbuilders on the Clyde or the Tyne about that. I'm sure there are those in your own rust-belt who share the experience and silently know the reasons it happened.

The current lower earners, as a whole, are still India and Africa and parts of South America. Maybe that's why VW makes cars in Mexico... We will eventually lose all of our manufacturing to these poor countries, but perhaps it will be a short-lived new joy for them: to whom will they export their new toys when the rest of us can no longer afford to buy? It will be decades before the greater part of the extremely poor millions of India will be able to buy cars, by which time there will probably not be any, nor oil to drive them, to make plastic or simply to burn in order not to freeze...

I'm afraid it needs a quick, world-wide solution in the immediate future to fix this thing, and as most don't even want to accept there is a problem, it will be too late when they do.

Frankly, we have "progressed" too far for the good of humanity. At first there were problems for which inventions provided solutions; then there were inventions providing solutions looking for problems; now, however, those brilliant solutions have become the problem: they don't need us anymore. Cute, innit? Should have seen it coming, though to be fair, some few visionaries did and were laughed at.

But that creeps, inevitably, into politics, and only international politics can fix it, so I'll let it be at that.

Rob
« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 10:35:21 am by Rob C »
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RSL

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #281 on: December 27, 2016, 10:51:43 am »


But the problem remains: what do those unemployed and increasingly unemployable people do with their day, and from whence comes the money to keep them alive and peaceful? In an age where even the middle-class pro with a degree is finding it difficult to find a regular job, it doesn't bode well for the future. There are more than a few university leavers who have discovered that their years there were a waste of time if they didn't read maths and sciences. Those disciplines are not within every person's ability or aptitude. Those people without those specific skills may have their degree, but it is no longer a passport, so even relatively bright people can, and do find themselves stacking shelves or handing burgers across a counter. Should good eating return as fashionable, even those Macjobs will vanish.
Rob

Hi Rob, here are a few statistics about employment in some of those unnecessary fields of pursuit:

As of January 2015, Apple Inc. claims to directly employ 66,000 employees in the United States alone. Many other jobs are attributable to Apple, including 627,000 created to support the iOS ecosystem. The company's 265 Apple stores employ about 30,000 retail employees.

Amazon added 39,300 employees during its most recent quarter, which is record quarterly growth for the company. Amazon's headcount also surpassed 200,000 for the first time and is now at 222,400 — that's up 49 percent from this time last year.

From Googles 2012 Q2 report: "On a worldwide basis, we employed 54,604 full-time employees (34,311 in our Google business and 20,293 in our Motorola business) as of June 30, 2012, compared to 33,077 full-time employees as of March 31, 2012." In the latest quarterly filing Google reported to have 24,400 employees.

The number of Microsoft employees increased from 61,000 in 2005 to 118,000 in 2015 (measured as of the last day of the financial year). Founded in a garage by Bill Gates and Paul Allen in 1975, over the last four decades Microsoft has become a vast multinational corporation.

I say again that what we need is for governments to get off the backs of the people who, like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs create the jobs you want to see created. But it's not just the Apples, Amazons, Microsofts, and Googles. The outfits that have been hit hardest by government overreach are companies like McDonald's, which in the U.S., as a consequence of government-imposed "minimum wage" requirements, are pretty much shut down at the moment while they overhaul and install automated ordering devices. Guess what will happen to the people who used to take orders. They're outta there and they'll join the unemployed. What's worse is that outfits like McDonalds historically have provided the entry-level jobs that kids need to learn what it's like to work. I remember my early days with a paper route and a job at the Detroit Zoo (http://www.russ-lewis.com/history/my%20early%20life.html). Nowadays there's almost nothing like that available to introduce you to productive work. That's not the fault of business. It's the fault of government!

Government interference with the economy is what produces what you call ". . . unemployed and increasingly unemployable people." The free market, unencumbered, eventually can restore economic sanity and solve the problem.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #282 on: December 27, 2016, 10:57:31 am »

As more people need jobs, wages will decline and more jobs will be created as it will become affordable to compete with imports.

Hi Alan,

So far for theory, but without spending power there will be no people who can buy those imports or their local equivalents, thus there will be none ...

Without a large enough middle class, the economic model of the USA (and many like that) fails, and falling wages is not a solution, on the contrary.

Cheers,
Bart
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N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #283 on: December 27, 2016, 11:00:41 am »

The problem for the west is that we are 'forgetting' how to make things. We don't make stuff. And not only are we losing the machinery to make things, we are losing the machinists. Good machinists are craftsman. You don't come out of tech school as a fully functioning machinist. Our machinists are aging out and we're not training many more. When you lose that skill and knowledge base, you cannot make the machines that make stuff or even the machines that make the machines that make stuff.

We'll be fine without our techno wonders when the hard times hit. We won't be fine when the machines that bottle and can food are gone, or the machines that make tractors or the machines that provide us with power and water.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #284 on: December 27, 2016, 11:53:09 am »

Taxes, deficits, debt, printing money (inflation), low interest rates causing less capital formation are the things that are hurting the middle class and the economies as a whole.  If the governments got out of the way and let free markets really work, every country would be doing better.  There would be expanding and new businesses creating a lot more jobs and wealth. 

scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #285 on: December 27, 2016, 01:45:15 pm »

If the governments got out of the way and let free markets really work, every country would be doing better. 

right, Charles Dickens comes to mind
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Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #286 on: December 27, 2016, 03:13:14 pm »

The problem for the west is that we are 'forgetting' how to make things. We don't make stuff. And not only are we losing the machinery to make things, we are losing the machinists. Good machinists are craftsman. You don't come out of tech school as a fully functioning machinist. Our machinists are aging out and we're not training many more. When you lose that skill and knowledge base, you cannot make the machines that make stuff or even the machines that make the machines that make stuff.

We'll be fine without our techno wonders when the hard times hit. We won't be fine when the machines that bottle and can food are gone, or the machines that make tractors or the machines that provide us with power and water.


So right: when I began, it was a five-year apprenticeship to become a mechanical engineer, and then a lot more experience to become a foreman - if you did remain on the floor. You just don't come out of tech colleges with that knowledge and understanding. My late father-in-law had a surveying business that, at its peak, employed thirty people. The perfect business model, you might say. He once or twice employed surveyors who'd earned their degree in a university, and then never again. The only ones worth their pay were the ones who'd worked in private practice as apprentices and gone to day classes or night school to earn their paper qualifications. In Britain, the apprentice concept became a little bit of showbiz, a part of entertainment...

Rob

mecrox

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #287 on: December 27, 2016, 05:55:37 pm »


Government interference with the economy is what produces what you call ". . . unemployed and increasingly unemployable people." The free market, unencumbered, eventually can restore economic sanity and solve the problem.

Sounds like Ayn Rand type piffle. Governments seek to regulate for very obvious and often desirable reasons, unless we would all prefer to become destitute slaves mired in incredible pollution and without any healthcare Satanic Mill stylee. And since no market is ever truly free, except perhaps for a black market, setting things up in this way simply establishes a cycle of blame which can never be escaped because the alleged solution - no government worth the name and a fantasy free market - is entirely unachievable. Back to the drawing board, Sir. We need a something worthy of the West - three thousand or so years of shared history and culture, and freedoms and values hard fought for.
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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #288 on: December 27, 2016, 06:01:10 pm »

So right: when I began, it was a five-year apprenticeship to become a mechanical engineer

once upon a time people who operated steam locomotives were called engineers, they were not engineers though...

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eronald

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #289 on: December 27, 2016, 06:25:34 pm »

The problem for the west is that we are 'forgetting' how to make things. We don't make stuff. And not only are we losing the machinery to make things, we are losing the machinists. Good machinists are craftsman. You don't come out of tech school as a fully functioning machinist. Our machinists are aging out and we're not training many more. When you lose that skill and knowledge base, you cannot make the machines that make stuff or even the machines that make the machines that make stuff.

We'll be fine without our techno wonders when the hard times hit. We won't be fine when the machines that bottle and can food are gone, or the machines that make tractors or the machines that provide us with power and water.

So who cares? As long as doctors, scientists, and the necessary engineers with undergrad degrees can be imported from India, and finished products from China, the US and the UK don't need to educate any of their own except for MBAs, accountants, and lawyers, who you will notice are still paid "middle class" salaries. latin-speaking Europe is not yet quite gone so far because immigrants want to escape poverty, not embrace it :)

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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #290 on: December 27, 2016, 10:00:50 pm »

except for MBAs, accountants, and lawyers

please be assured that MBAs, accountants, and lawyers are being infiltrated too... survival of the fittest  ;D
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Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #291 on: December 28, 2016, 04:01:19 am »

once upon a time people who operated steam locomotives were called engineers, they were not engineers though...




Nice picture; that kind of 'engineer' is celebrated in country music. It's his reward to be remembered in folklore. The engineers of whom I speak all worked in factories producing whatever their factory produced. The basic five-year appenticeship taught you how to be a miller, a turner, a fitter all of the manual/technical skills that went to make the entire factory function. The theoretical part, in the technical colleges, taught you about electrics, physics in general etc. etc. so that you could go ahead into design, development and producution planning and various levels of technical management.

In  Britain, apprenticeships almost vanished because the factories did too; when you become an importer and, at best, an assembler of foreign-made parts, your needs for production experts withers, and as that dies so does your reservoir of available talent and expertise, so you can never start up again - at least, not with home-grown talent. Indeed, it has been one of the promises of recent UK governments to reintroduce apprenticeship schemes... It's my guess that had Britain not been cursed with quasi-communist and open communist union leadership, it would not today find itself in that condition where it was better sense to close factories and allow other countries not cursed with the scourge of politicised unions to make the bloody products.

It is not just lower foreign wages that destroy the national economy; one's own fifth column does a fine job of helping death along. And the same people who turned apathetic, blind eyes to what was going down all around them in their own workplace share the mindset of those who, today, seek solutions in isolationism. Sorry, guys, the sickness is in yourselves. You did nothing when you had the chance to save yourselves and your country too. Instead, you kept silent as you went along within the bellowing herd.

Rob

RSL

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #292 on: December 28, 2016, 10:06:50 am »

Sounds like Ayn Rand type piffle. Governments seek to regulate for very obvious and often desirable reasons, unless we would all prefer to become destitute slaves mired in incredible pollution and without any healthcare Satanic Mill stylee. And since no market is ever truly free, except perhaps for a black market, setting things up in this way simply establishes a cycle of blame which can never be escaped because the alleged solution - no government worth the name and a fantasy free market - is entirely unachievable. Back to the drawing board, Sir. We need a something worthy of the West - three thousand or so years of shared history and culture, and freedoms and values hard fought for.

Hi Mecrox, (have you an actual name?) Yes, Ayn Rand was a bit over the top. Government has many legitimate functions: providing clean water (which government failed utterly to do for Flint, Michigan), sewage disposal, etc. And as you point out, legitimate government functions include protecting individuals from the depredations of other individuals. That would include protections against robbery, slavery, pollution that harms others, etc. But it emphatically doesn't include such things as providing health care or establishing wage levels.

Until the 1930's the U.S. pretty much had free markets, though there were exceptions. There always are exceptions. FDR's government experiments with socialism managed to keep the Great Depression (caused by government interference with free trade) going until WW II broke out, but our residual strength, the remnants of what we'd built with free markets, allowed us to go to the rescue of the Western world. Without that rescue your "three thousand or so years of shared history and culture, and freedoms and values hard fought for" would have gone down the same drain the Romans went down. Heaven help us if we come face to face with a similar threat today.

If you see all that as "piffle" or "not worthy of the West," I'd suggest you explain what you mean.
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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #293 on: December 28, 2016, 12:40:53 pm »

Government has many legitimate functions: providing clean water...sewage disposal, etc.... doesn't include such things as providing health care

not sure why any kind of gov't owes you a clean water or remove your sewege ? establish cooperative and take care about yourself...
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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #294 on: December 28, 2016, 12:43:50 pm »

include protections against robbery... doesn't include such things as ... establishing wage levels.

not sure either why any kind of gov't must protect some photog's livelihood in terms of copyright laws, etc while not protecting McD's employee livelihood by (establishing and) enforcing min wages ?
« Last Edit: December 28, 2016, 12:47:03 pm by scyth »
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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #295 on: December 28, 2016, 12:46:32 pm »

The engineers of whom I speak all worked in factories producing whatever their factory produced. The basic five-year appenticeship taught you how to be a miller, a turner, a fitter all of the manual/technical skills that went to make the entire factory function. The theoretical part, in the technical colleges, taught you about electrics, physics in general etc. etc. so that you could go ahead into design, development and producution planning and various levels of technical management.

but I 'd assume the right word for that will be a technician, not engineer (w/ a degree or two and possibly a board certification)
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RSL

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #296 on: December 28, 2016, 01:22:37 pm »

not sure why any kind of gov't owes you a clean water or remove your sewege ? establish cooperative and take care about yourself...

Right. The kind of "cooperative" you're talking about is called a city.
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RSL

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #297 on: December 28, 2016, 01:28:19 pm »

not sure either why any kind of gov't must protect some photog's livelihood in terms of copyright laws, etc while not protecting McD's employee livelihood by (establishing and) enforcing min wages ?

Protecting McD's employee livelihood? Maybe you're not a careful reader. At the moment the local McDs are closed for renovation -- except for the drive-throughs. When they open again they'll have automated ordering devices. Former order-takers are out on their posteriors because of min wage enforcement. Doesn't sound as if min wages protected employee livelihoods does it?
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Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #298 on: December 28, 2016, 02:57:18 pm »

but I 'd assume the right word for that will be a technician, not engineer (w/ a degree or two and possibly a board certification)

Reread the paragraph; degree courses are included. You could get Ordinary National Certificates and on upwards through all sorts of degrees according to your ability, desires and patience. You are your limits.
 
Rob

RSL

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #299 on: December 28, 2016, 04:29:22 pm »

You are your limits.
 Rob

More kids need to be taught that , Rob. It's really the basis of growing up, but far too many never realize it.
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