Poll

Your prediction, not your vote.

Clinton
- 9 (69.2%)
Trump
- 4 (30.8%)
Hung college
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13


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Author Topic: Election predictions  (Read 79701 times)

Rajan Parrikar

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #100 on: November 10, 2016, 03:08:11 pm »

Yesterday I learnt from Paul Krugman that I, a Trump voter, am really an uneducated, racist, rural white male with a deep rage. Only the "deep rage" part was right. This infantile labeling of people as racists is standard operating procedure for Leftwing ideologues but it is sad to see a brilliant man like Krugman decline like this. To paraphrase Sir Peter Medawar, he can be "excused only on the grounds that before deceiving others he must have taken pains to deceive himself."

Unfortunately for Kruggie, NYT's own data expert Nate Cohn has a different story to tell. And this.

« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 03:23:25 pm by Rajan Parrikar »
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James Clark

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #101 on: November 10, 2016, 03:24:03 pm »

Yes, easy-peasy! But it should be real simple, so that every time one side is unhappy about the current rules of the game, they should be able to change it back and forth real simple and quick.

You get that that's neither my suggestion nor my belief, right?  Have I not been crystal clear in expressing my belief that the electoral system is legitimate?  My contention is simply that an electoral win for Trump should not be equated with a national endorsement of his stated policies, and the overall popular vote is one piece of evidence that bears this out.

Other examples, not subject to the vagaries of campaigning (all from Pew Research, here.):

57% of the overall population feel that immigration strengthens the nation - 69% of Trump supporters believe immigration burdens our country.

74% of the overall population thinks that undocumented immigrants that meet certain requirements should be allowed to remain, vs. 47% of Trump supporters (surprisingly high for both groups, especially in light of the above figure)

57% of the overall population supports same-sex marriage - 38% of Trump supporters support it.

In short - even on Trump's signature campaign issues like immigration, people aren't really behind what he's proposing in many cases, and though social issues weren't a huge part of the campaign, he'd be wise not to let the newly unopposed Republican government go nuts on those issues either.  Incidentally, I voted (D) in Texas, as I usually do (though not always), despite the fact that the state is solidly and hopelessly (R).  For now.

By the way - congratulations on your first time as an eligible voter! 

 
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 03:38:08 pm by James Clark »
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Rajan Parrikar

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #102 on: November 10, 2016, 03:27:41 pm »

These questions in these polls are often framed to shape a narrative by offering a false choice (especially in questions about immigration, legal pathway etc). Brings to mind a classic.

James Clark

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #103 on: November 10, 2016, 03:32:41 pm »

These questions in these polls are often framed to shape a narrative by offering a false choice (especially in questions about immigration, legal pathway etc). Brings to mind a classic.

Sure, that can happen, but the answers given in the particular research I cited aren't particularly unique, nor are they particularly nuanced.   Of course a poll can be construed to lead.  Most respectable ones try not to.  And even if they did, the margins in these answers are dramatically disparate - well above what one might expect from weasely leading phrasing.

By the way, Krugman didn't call you an uneducated rural white guy with deep rage any more than HRC called all Trump supporters "deplorables."  But to deny that some faction of Trump's support (a larger percentage that comprises HRC's support) comes from those who do fit that description would be to deny reality. 

All that said - I do love your photography.  And Slobodan's too :)
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 03:39:21 pm by James Clark »
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Rajan Parrikar

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #104 on: November 10, 2016, 03:36:31 pm »

I was talking about the exit poll question calculated to frame argument for amnesty. See this and this.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #105 on: November 10, 2016, 03:48:59 pm »

You get that that's neither my suggestion nor my belief, right?  Have I not been crystal clear in expressing my belief that the electoral system is legitimate?...

... congratulations on your first time as an eligible voter! 

A quick note that I was quoting and replying to scyth, not you.

And thanks  :)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #106 on: November 10, 2016, 04:05:49 pm »

... Of course a poll can be construed to lead..

I've seen way too many questionnaires in my life not to be aware that they may not only lead, subtly or not, but also leave a lot to interpretation, and thus erroneous conclusions. It is hard also not to be aware that humans behind designing those questions and humans behind analyzing them are...well, humans, with all the biases that come with it. As for "respectable" pollsters, we just saw how it went in Brexit and this election. More like wishful thinking and confirmation bias than science, I am afraid.

For instance, the question about immigration. If asked as "does immigration burdens the nation or strengthens it?" I, as a recent immigrant, would probably answer "burdens," because in my mind "immigration" = legal + illegal, and I happen to believe that illegal immigration does burden. Another person might interpret the same word as legal immigration only. Now, it is entirely possible that Trump supporters are more likely to interpret "immigration = legal + illegal," but it is quite different to conclude that they think that immigration burdens the nation.

And thanks again on the photography compliment  :)

N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #107 on: November 10, 2016, 06:06:34 pm »

It does because you stated that it was about pay differentials, it wasn't at all.

Then Lancet and the BBC got it wrong too.
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George

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N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #108 on: November 10, 2016, 06:10:27 pm »

the last time some of them tried to actually exercise some sovereignty it ended up with a bloody mess... so whom you are kidding ?

Correct. People forget that the constitutional congress was all about convincing states to come together as a nation. It was a tenuous and ify situation that was only resolved with granting those states significant authority (including the right to own slaves) and restricting federal authority significantly. Lincoln, the great pragmatist, did not see it that way. His interpretation of the history and the Constitution cost well over 400,000 American lives. And the winners write the history books.
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George

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Rhossydd

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #109 on: November 10, 2016, 06:14:30 pm »

Then Lancet and the BBC got it wrong too.
Maybe you should talk to the doctors that actually took action. I did.
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N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #110 on: November 10, 2016, 06:26:03 pm »

There are some truly amazing ironies going on here. The greatest of these is the now utterly discredited liberal press' response to the whole thing. It has deteriorated into far worse bigotry, personal attacks and hate speech than Trump ever put out.

The other is the huge and hypocritical about-face. On election day the wheels of democracy were at work and the voice of the people was to be heard and all claims of rigging and deceit were labeled as absurd. Twelve hours later nothing but whining and moaning about the electoral college.

And then the protests. The collective temper tantrum currently being thrown by Hollywood elites, the majority of the media, the millennials and the socialists is a national disgrace. They love democracy until it doesn't go their way. They love tolerance, as long as you agree with them. When they don't get their way tolerance is abandoned and they destroy other people's property.

Don't get me wrong. I know that these groups don't actually represent the left by-in-large. But 1) the media is giving them enough air time to make you think it does and 2) the media certainly does not have the decency to admit that the KKK doesn't represent the majority on the right.

One of the millennials interviewed at a protest in L.A had a sign that said "Calexit" referring to California leaving the union (who would stop them). Above that was written "Succession". Her friend blurted out that California was tired of supporting the rest of the nation which was like an unemployed friend who comes to dinner and criticizes your life-style. I assume she was unaware of California's current economic woes. And yet, its the Trump supporters who are the "knuckle dragging", "mouth-breathing" "idiots" who just "crawled out from under stumps".

Irony | adjective| of or like iron
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George

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N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #111 on: November 10, 2016, 06:30:46 pm »

Maybe you should talk to the doctors that actually took action. I did.

Good for you. That changes nothing about my point. And if Lancet and the BBC don't have the insight that was available to you, you might understand why someone on the other side of the pond might not get those nuances either. The point is, still and despite your nuancing, that the system is not all that liberal Americans claim that it is.
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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #112 on: November 10, 2016, 07:01:27 pm »

57% of the overall population feel that immigration strengthens the nation - 69% of Trump supporters believe immigration burdens our country.

which immigration though ? legal, skilled - please by all means... illegal, low skilled ? nope - __BUT__ make a cheap working visa for those workers (just enough cost to cover fingerprinting, blood, DNA sample, some basic medical tests for HIV, etc - it is pretty much the same as legal immigrants have to do and did before, except DNA sampling) w/o the right to change that visa status to a different non-immigrant visa status within USA and w/o the ability to apply for GC while on that visa status ...

also (amend constitution) eliminate citizenship by birth on US territory unless one of the parents is already a US citizen (test DNA @ parents cost to prove that he/she is) and (amend constitution) remove the right to social security/medicare contributions unless you end up as citizen (you have to pay those taxes, but will be able to get them back only if you will become a citizen)...

that simple.
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scyth

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #113 on: November 10, 2016, 07:06:14 pm »

It's just another indication that the US is a divided country with two camps who can't stand each other
but those camps are totally not static - I crossed the "party line" for example voting for Trump w/o hesitation (and I voted Obama twice) ... I bet there Reps voting for Hillary too ... and not few...
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jfirneno

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #114 on: November 10, 2016, 08:11:05 pm »

Yesterday I learnt from Paul Krugman that I, a Trump voter, am really an uneducated, racist, rural white male with a deep rage. Only the "deep rage" part was right. This infantile labeling of people as racists is standard operating procedure for Leftwing ideologues but it is sad to see a brilliant man like Krugman decline like this. To paraphrase Sir Peter Medawar, he can be "excused only on the grounds that before deceiving others he must have taken pains to deceive himself."

Unfortunately for Kruggie, NYT's own data expert Nate Cohn has a different story to tell. And this.

Rajan:
The labeling is just their way of maintaining a narrative that they hope will hide the real reason they lost PA, MI and WI.  "It's not because we allowed globalism to shut down the heartland's jobs, it's because those no-good racists don't like sweet innocent Hillary and Bill!"  Note to the Dems; if you're trying to attract votes, calling half the population deplorable might be a mistake.
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N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #115 on: November 10, 2016, 10:11:04 pm »

which immigration though ? legal, skilled - please by all means... illegal, low skilled ?

Exactly. And a perfect example of how pollsters and pundits design questions to get the results they want.

The question: Is immigration good for America? is very different from the question: Is illegal immigration good for America.

The current context of the issue of immigration is illegal immigration.

And whether we like it or not, things have changed a great deal since most of us learned in grade school the national benefits of the "Melting Pot". This country is no longer in need of workers. This country also no longer integrates its immigrants, particularly illegal ones....for obvious reasons. This country is already staggering under its social programs and entitlements. So we are no longer a nation that needs immigrants nor are we one that melts them together with the rest of us and we can no longer support those who do not contribute. There are certainly many other good and legitimate reasons for immigration but they are not the ones that forms the older view of immigration.
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George

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Chris Calohan

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #116 on: November 10, 2016, 10:22:49 pm »

Rajan:
The labeling is just their way of maintaining a narrative that they hope will hide the real reason they lost PA, MI and WI.  "It's not because we allowed globalism to shut down the heartland's jobs, it's because those no-good racists don't like sweet innocent Hillary and Bill!"  Note to the Dems; if you're trying to attract votes, calling half the population deplorable might be a mistake.

There were two things that cost her the election: the Deplorables comment was likely the biggest FUBAR (f**ked up beyond all repair) and then the very untimely Coomey email bombshell. I am a bit in the minority in this thinking, but I have this nagging thought that won't go away that says he was quite pissed he didn't have the evidence to indict her for her email server, but he knew he could pretty much derail her run for the White House by releasing the "new" information. Up until that letter, she was virtually a shoo-in. Telling the US electorate two days before the election she was in the clear was like pissing on a forest fire in its effect.

I voted for Hillary not because I loved her, but because I saw Trump as a buffoon. He is a clinical example (still is) of Narcissism with a Borderline Personality Disorder. His plan and strategy was too well aligned with that of Hitler and Mussolini not that I think he was bright enough to have read either manifesto but he did know that to control the media into free attention was free ride #1 and to put the blame of all the blue collar worker's plight on someone else. He blamed the Mexicans and the Islamic's and ranted over and over and over as to how they would ruin America and how they had to go. This, quite effectively took the onus off him to actually show any real plans.

Frankly, I do not think he ever expected to get elected. From the look on his face when he faced the victory crowd, it was evidence he was as stunned as Clinton who felt she had it in the bag...as did I. The Republican party will win the next four years if they can manage to curb him but as with almost all Manic Depressive's, when he goes on a roll, he's as predictable as a drunk in a China shop. He's made promises that will never come to fruition. The wall, at the cost between 40 and 60 billion dollars underestimated by my accounting as I've hiked the hills that follow the Rio Grande and know them to be mostly impenetrable for the purposes of building said wall just isn't financially or constructional feasible. The Mexicans with a GDP of about $7 per capita do not have the funds to pay for it. Remember, despite what Trump told his followers - "they loved me in Mexico, and the President of Mexico loves me," what the President of Mexico actually said, and on public TV was go F**K yourself.

The second which he promises on his first day in office to dismantle Obamacare, has more than just a few problems. One it was a congressional act and only the congress can totally dismantle it, but two, he has no workable plan that will keep 20 million Americans with equitable healthcare. His plan to allow those needing insurance to reach across state lines is being met with much disdain by the insurers across the nation because they realize that huge influxes of new members will just drive their administrative cost so high, no gain and perhaps even loss will occur. In the end, he is going to have to do what Hillary was going to have to do and that is tweak the system to lower costs without throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

Banning all Muslims coming into the country is going to also have to be modified because of the horrid loss of respect from our overseas neighbors. You can only piss off the rest of the world so much before you start losing allies. The last initial concern for him will come when he puts out large forces of immigration "enforcers" to take people out of their homes and bus them back to Mexico. He thinks they will just hop on that bus willingly and he's as wrong as Hell. They're going to fight and a lot of people are going to get killed on both sides and like the Viet Nam war, this doesn't play well on TV. So, here we have a President who knows doodley squat about foreign policy, really running a military operation, who has very doubtfully ever read, much less comprehend the US Constitution, who is frightfully too cozy with the Russians, potentially deciding the fate of most of the world so perhaps you can understand my quivering fear of the big Buffoon.

Some of you may have felt disenfranchised, but had you taken the time to analyze Donald Trump, even a little, you would have understood why I fear him like no previous President we've ever had. The vast majority of Trump's followers were indeed uneducated, and if they lived in NW FL, I can assure you, to quote a Trumpism, many many many of these beautiful people drove over-sized pickup trucks displaying large Confederate flags, went "mudding' on the weekends and followed the Trump like lemming doing their pilgrimage to the sea, were very much racists and preferred their "wimmen" barefoot and stupid. All I can say to you disenfranchised voters...might want to look both ways before crossing the street next time around. The chicken got lucky.

LMAO "This country is no longer in need of workers." Ha, you get Americans to pick the lettuce, tomatoes, or grapes, etc. They won't do it. Americans are very rarely hired by Cruise Ship lines because they won't work the hours. They feel far to entitled and take great affront at the suggestion they must work to eat. You live in fantasy land, my friend. Without these workers a head of lettuce will cost $6.00. And, to the educated voter who put the Buffoon into office, go online and take a real hard look at his tax plan. You think Hillary was going to stick it to you.....hahahahaha, Trump is going to pretend you are a choirboy. There isn't anything about his Presidency that is going to be pretty and we haven't even touched on the Middle East. "I know more than anyone else including all the generals, how to fix the Middle East," he said repeatedly. I suggest if you really believe this, to make your cliff side reservations early as you follow the rest to the sea. How long can you tread water?

« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 10:35:56 pm by Chris Calohan »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #117 on: November 10, 2016, 10:44:16 pm »

Why trust exit polls from the same people who gave us the polls on who was going to win? 

Alan Klein

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #118 on: November 10, 2016, 10:53:43 pm »

Chris, all the arguments you made were made by your side over the last year.  They weren't enough to defeat Trump.  The election is over.  Next time, in 2020,  pick a better Democrat to run against him.  You have 4 years to find him or her.   

James Clark

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #119 on: November 10, 2016, 10:55:05 pm »

Exactly. And a perfect example of how pollsters and pundits design questions to get the results they want.

The question: Is immigration good for America? is very different from the question: Is illegal immigration good for America.

The current context of the issue of immigration is illegal immigration.

And whether we like it or not, things have changed a great deal since most of us learned in grade school the national benefits of the "Melting Pot". This country is no longer in need of workers. This country also no longer integrates its immigrants, particularly illegal ones....for obvious reasons. This country is already staggering under its social programs and entitlements. So we are no longer a nation that needs immigrants nor are we one that melts them together with the rest of us and we can no longer support those who do not contribute. There are certainly many other good and legitimate reasons for immigration but they are not the ones that forms the older view of immigration.

Except the both of you are ignoring the corollary - that 74% of respondents affirmed that *Undocumented* immigrants should have a path to stay.  You also seem to have this idea that random people stream across the border, do nothing but use our services and hang out.  I don't think that really how it works. 

By the way, N80, the Constitutional Convention was specifically addressing the fact that the previous charter - The Articles of Confederation - allowed too little federal control to be effective in binding the nation together.  I'm on an iPad, so I'll save you a history lecture, but the idea that the founders were bending over backwards to preserve state autonomy in the 1789 document is incorrect.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 11:32:51 pm by James Clark »
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