Nikon in difficulty?

[shadowblade]

Hi,

Check on this link:
http://photonstophotos.net/Charts/PDR.htm#Canon%20EOS%201DX%20Mark%20II,Canon%20EOS%205D%20Mark%20IV,Canon%20EOS%205DS%20R,Leica%20M%20Typ%20240,Nikon%20D810,Sony%20ILCE-7RII

or this one, that is simpler:
http://photonstophotos.net/Charts/PDR.htm#Canon%20EOS%205D%20Mark%20IV,Leica%20M%20Typ%20240,Nikon%20D810,Sony%20ILCE-7RII

I would suggest that Nikon makes a bit better job on extracting DR than Sony. Both companies play tricks.

But, the Canon and CMOSIS designed for Leica sensors are way behind.

The comparison on the MFD side may be interesting to:
http://photonstophotos.net/Charts/PDR.htm#Leica%20S%20Typ%20006,Leica%20S%20Typ%20007,Pentax%20645Z,Phase%20One%20IQ260

Keep in mind the IQ260 has a much larger sensor than the others…

Best regards
Erik

Those comparisons don't show a non-Sony sensor that matches the Sony as a high-resolution, high-DR sensor.

The D810 and A7r2 both use Sony sensors. All the other full-frame sensors either don't hold up DR-wise, are way behind in resolution, or both. The MF sensors also lose their DR advantage once you correct for sensor area.

If Nikon were to lose access to Sony sensors (say, if Sony came up with an A9 that could match the D810 AF- and performance-wise and decided they'd rather have the high-detail, non-action market for themselves) they'd be hard-pressed to find an alternative for the D810's successor. Doubly so if Sony pulls through with the 70-80MP sensor for their next-generation high-resolution camera; even if the continued to supply Nikon with 42MP sensors (which are still better than anything else available on the market), Nikon would still lose market share to Sony, wile remaining dependent on them. And if Canon comes out with a 60MP sensor for the 5Ds2, with the same DR-improving technology that has gone into their most recent sensors...

[chez]

The bottom line Nikon adjusted ( lowered ) its expectations for camera sales next year...that is a lower adjustment for an already lowered adjustment they made earlier this year...so from me as an investor in the company...I'd be pulling my money out. Is Nikon in trouble...maybe not...is Nikon in difficulty...you bet your ass.

[E.J. Peiker]

The bottom line Nikon adjusted ( lowered ) its expectations for camera sales next year...that is a lower adjustment for an already lowered adjustment they made earlier this year...so from me as an investor in the company...I'd be pulling my money out. Is Nikon in trouble...maybe not...is Nikon in difficulty...you bet your ass.

And most analysts still think that even the newly lowered targets are optimistic and not likely.

[BernardLanguillier]

And most analysts still think that even the newly lowered targets are optimistic and not likely.

The exact same thing can be said of Canon.

Cheers,
Bernard

[chez]

The exact same thing can be said of Canon.

Cheers,
Bernard

Sure, the entire industry is being retooled...that is why companies that are invested more broadly and don't fully rely on other companies for their survival are better off. This is what has been discussed here...that Nikon relies on others to suggest supply the key component in today's cameras, the sensor. Not the best positions to be in.

[BernardLanguillier]

Sure, the entire industry is being retooled...that is why companies that are invested more broadly and don't fully rely on other companies for their survival are better off. This is what has been discussed here...that Nikon relies on others to suggest supply the key component in today's cameras, the sensor. Not the best positions to be in.

Nikon being more dependant on the success of their cameras is their single strongest asset IMHO. They have no choice but to over-perform. Each time they have been described as dead they have come up with better solutions than their competitors. That's a company that has proven time and again that they are best with their back against the wall.

They are now fully over the deeply rooted issues that resulted from the earthquake in Japan and floodings in Thailand. Their excecution has been flawless these past 2 years with very successful products that have been selling well in the high end where they are most probably very profitable.

The main issue of Nikon is in the low end. In my view a contraction of their revenue is unavoidable, but that doesn't mean at all that they cannot be profitable nor continue to release leading products in the highend 35mm segment.

From a sensor sourcing standpoint, this strategic choice they made has worked very well for them till date.

They have both the ability to design top level sensors internally for applications where no off the shelf parts of sufficient performance are available (D5 sensor), without the urge to rely only on internal technology for their full line up (a la Canon).

Cheers,
Bernard

[ErikKaffehr]

Hi,

I would guess that everyone needs to adjust to a shrinking market while develop new and attractive replacement products.

I would not see Nikon using third party sensors a liability. On the contrary, they can use the best available technology.

Regarding Sony, the sensor maker, is a different company from Sony, the camera maker. One company is selling sensors to everyone willing to buy.

That said, it may be that the sensor used in the A7rII has been developed for Sony and it may not be available to customers. Some sensors are probably designed for say Nikon.

Canon and Nikon are the big two in the Camera making business and that has not changed a lot. Nikon is more dependent on the camera business than Canon is. I don't see Nikon loosing market to Canon, but I see the photo market going downhill without much chance of recovery. Once we have 8K television and 85" screens in each household things will change.

Best regards
Erik

Nikon being more dependant on the success of their cameras is their single strongest asset IMHO. They have no choice but to over-perform. Each time they have been described as dead they have come up with better solutions than their competitors. That's a company that has proven time and again that they are best with their back against the wall.

They are now fully over the deeply rooted issues that resulted from the earthquake in Japan and floodings in Thailand. Their excecution has been flawless these past 2 years with very successful products that have been selling well in the high end where they are most probably very profitable.

The main issue of Nikon is in the low end. In my view a contraction of their revenue is unavoidable, but that doesn't mean at all that they cannot be profitable nor continue to release leading products in the highend 35mm segment.

From a sensor sourcing standpoint, this strategic choice they made has worked very well for them till date.

They have both the ability to design top level sensors internally for applications where no off the shelf parts of sufficient performance are available (D5 sensor), without the urge to rely only on internal technology for their full line up (a la Canon).

Cheers,
Bernard

[davidgp]

That said, it may be that the sensor used in the A7rII has been developed for Sony and it may not be available to customers. Some sensors are probably designed for say Nikon.

Hi,

I don't remember exactly in which interview... But someone for Sony camera division said that the sensor of 42 megapixels was going to be exclusively used for a time by Sony cameras...

Maybe by now that sensor is being offered to other companies... But unless you are into video... For stills... The advantage is little compared to the 36 megapixel one... And the 36 must be quite "cheap" by now... Look at the price of the Pentax K1...

Anyway... Next year will be interesting... We will see if those "infamous" 70/60 megapixels sensor become a reality and if an hypothetical Nikon D820 mounts them... (Maybe by them I can afford a A7r II second hand )

Regards

David


Enviado desde mi iPad utilizando Tapatalk

[Paul2660]

As I stated earlier, all of this is lost on the average consumer. And these are folks that driving the market.  Just look at the news, look out your window, it's all phone photography anymore.   All they want it now, on instagram, facebook etc, then it's forgotten.  And these are masses, across the world, not just in the US.  The thought of a print is never, will never be there ever.  So to this user base, if it looks good on the phone, then it's ready, no concerns whatsoever.  Try to teach a class to this generation, mention anything about possibly slowing down the ability to get the image to the web instantly, you have lost. 

So sure the market that Nikon was in 2, 3 years ago, has vastly shrunk to probably less than 15% of where is was.  So any company that can't adapt to the Digital now, me market will be cast aside and sooner than later.

Even Go Pro has felt some pain, due to the latest craze, drone photography since they had to recall their models.

Not sure also why this post continues to pick at Nikon.  Canon is feeling it also, but as we all know they are a more diversified company, so they can run with it longer if they want to.  The market place dollar where it's being spent will determine what the next steps will be, it's pretty much always been this way.  Some companies get it sooner than others. 

However on the chip side, Sony needs Nikon just as much as Nikon needs them.  Sony's market share has grown, but I don't see them overtaking Nikon or Canon, and so far they have mainly stayed in the Mirrorless market Nikon has not.  What a camera is in 3 to 5 years from now will be dramatically different than what we see today.  There will still be photographers using the 35mm format, lenses, bodies, etc. but I really don't see that these will be the mainstream anymore as the generation that would be purchasing them has long ago forsaken such technology for other devices.

Paul Caldwell

[E.J. Peiker]

GoPro has felt some pain?  Their stock is worth 15% of what it was...  I'd say that's armageddon level pain and the fact that nobody has taken them out yet speaks volumes about that market...

As for camera manufacturers like Nikon succumbing to phones, much of what you say is true BUT if Nikon et al embraced instant sharing to whatever service and if it were as simple as a cell phone, at least some of their market would come back.  I know lots of young people that love the pictures they can make on DSLRs and mirrorless cameras but they don't use them most of the time because they can't share it to Instagram, SnapChat, Facebook, etc in a few gestures that take a few seconds...

[hogloff]

GoPro has felt some pain?  Their stock is worth 15% of what it was...  I'd say that's armageddon level pain and the fact that nobody has taken them out yet speaks volumes about that market...

As for camera manufacturers like Nikon succumbing to phones, much of what you say is true BUT if Nikon et al embraced instant sharing to whatever service and if it were as simple as a cell phone, at least some of their market would come back.  I know lots of young people that love the pictures they can make on DSLRs and mirrorless cameras but they don't use them most of the time because they can't share it to Instagram, SnapChat, Facebook, etc in a few gestures that take a few seconds...

EJ, that's the part that has me scratching my head...why the likes of Canon or Nikon not integrated Internet access into their lower level cameras...or the very least a very quick and simple way to access the images on the camera via a phone.

[BernardLanguillier]

GoPro has felt some pain?  Their stock is worth 15% of what it was...  I'd say that's armageddon level pain and the fact that nobody has taken them out yet speaks volumes about that market...

As for camera manufacturers like Nikon succumbing to phones, much of what you say is true BUT if Nikon et al embraced instant sharing to whatever service and if it were as simple as a cell phone, at least some of their market would come back.  I know lots of young people that love the pictures they can make on DSLRs and mirrorless cameras but they don't use them most of the time because they can't share it to Instagram, SnapChat, Facebook, etc in a few gestures that take a few seconds...

The only thing Nikon added to the latest version of their 2 lower end bodies released this year is precisely that. The implementation is not prefect, but it is reasonnably close.

Cheers,
Bernard

[E.J. Peiker]

The only thing Nikon added to the latest version of their 2 lower end bodies released this year is precisely that. The implementation is not prefect, but it is reasonnably close.

Cheers,
Bernard

Not even close if you are referring to Snapbridge.  What these types of consumers want is a camera that they can take a picture with, hit an upload arrow on the screen and have it show up on social media.  Not a cumbersome go between like Snapbridge that forces it to go through their phone and then requires action on the phone.  It's slow, takes too many steps and is unreliable.  You need to have the Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, SnapChat, etc app on the camera like a Smartphone does and it connects directly.  It is FAR from perfect and nowhere near close to what would be required to get a new generation of users!  Talk to millennials, please don't use your own personal bias of what's "reasonably close" - that's the fundamental problem here - camera and software designers doing things in a vacuum or listening to old photographers and not understanding the young end users needs.

[scooby70]

Talk to millennials, please don't use your own personal bias of what's "reasonably close" - that's the fundamental problem here - camera and software designers doing things in a vacuum or listening to old photographers and not understanding the young end users needs.

Two family members have just bought new phones as the cameras on them are much better (as they're xx mp but I forget how many as I'm not remotely interested in phones.) They didn't even consider buying a camera and one of them is a former DSLR user. There's still some recognition amongst the young that a dedicated camera might be better and a 14yo has just asked for a camera. I bet she'll be a bit phased by the lack of connectivity though and it does seem that the makers are missing a trick here.

[BernardLanguillier]

Yes, indeed.

But compared to my other cameras, at least it is possible to share images in the field to social networks. It is clearly not as easy as it should be though... but the marketing is aligned with the need. Which is already tremendous progress for Nikon and seems to indicate a shift since they have clearly been years behind in marketing compared to Canon and Sony.

Cheers,
Bernard

[shadowblade]

http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/sony-interview-ir-best-sony-sensors-will-remain-house-not-outsourced-nikon/

What was I saying about Sony withholding their top-tier sensors from competitors?

The real battle will be A9r/A7r3 vs 5Ds2 in the 50+ MP range, as well as how much Sony's new bodies can encroach on the 5D4's and 1Dx2's turf. Nikon will likely be stuck with the previous-generation 42MP sensor - still very good, but unlikely to be competitive with a new sensor. I'm hoping Canon deliver here, on the DR front, to put pressure on Sony, both feature- (especially AF and 16-bit RAW) and price-wise.

[scyth]

http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/sony-interview-ir-best-sony-sensors-will-remain-house-not-outsourced-nikon/

What was I saying about Sony withholding their top-tier sensors from competitors?

hmmm.... 1) IR removed interview and 2) the only 2 sensors that nobody used outside Sony so far are 12mp FF and 42mp FF ... and the only customers outside Sony for this will be Nikon (we do not count Ricoh for obvious reason)... Nikon clearly does not need 12mp sensor and so the only proof for withholding is that Nikon does not make 42mp camera  ?

[shadowblade]

hmmm.... 1) IR removed interview and 2) the only 2 sensors that nobody used outside Sony so far are 12mp FF and 42mp FF ... and the only customers outside Sony for this will be Nikon (we do not count Ricoh for obvious reason)... Nikon clearly does not need 12mp sensor and so the only proof for withholding is that Nikon does not make 42mp camera  ?

Pentax is also using the 36MP sensor. And given that Sony people themselves said it...

I would expect that this is a fairly new (last 2 years) strategy. Clearly, the 36MP sensor was top-of-the-line when Nikon first got it. As was the 24MP Exmor before that. But, at that stage, Sony was in no position to compete on camera bodies. May as well sell it if you can't use it yourself. The situation is different now - Sony can compete on bodies and has an active interest in converting people to E-mount. And that doesn't involve Nikon having access to the top-of-the-line full-frame sensor.

[BernardLanguillier]

What options would that leave Nikon with?
- use the 42mp Sony sensor, probably get more DR out of it and more actual details thanks to better focusing,
- buy from somebody else
- design their own.

Considering the time it is taking them to release the D850, #1 is pretty much ruled out IMHO, which leaves #2 and #3. My vote goes for #3.

Cheers,
Bernard

[shadowblade]

What options would that leave Nikon with?
- use the 42mp Sony sensor, probably get more DR out of it and more actual details thanks to better focusing,
- buy from somebody else
- design their own.

Considering the time it is taking them to release the D850, #1 is pretty much ruled out IMHO, which leaves #2 and #3. My vote goes for #3.

Cheers,
Bernard

I'm not sure of their ability to design a suitable sensor.

All the Nikon-designed sensors have a significant plateauing of DR at lower ISOs, i.e. a significant read noise component limiting DR. This is similar to what Canon had for years. Canon has largely overcome that in recent designs - I'd expect the 5Ds2 to have 14+ stops of DR - but Nikon hasn't. That's not a problem for action cameras, but becomes a problem when you're designing a high-resolution, low-ISO body made for image quality.

Buying from someone else might be an option, but who? Certainly not Sony or Canon, or the companies bought up by them.