Brexit

[Justinr]

That's the big one, debated time and again as to whether it's a true representaion of the facts or not.

Some say it was always the guideline and others say it was something that morphed into something else later on. I think the bottom line demonstrates that not enough of us, myself included, really know what's going down when these decisions are being made. How could we know? There are thousands of documents to be read - who has ever done that, and even were we able so to do, how many have the legal training to understand ramifications or even imagine them? It's why we pay politicians to do it for us on a daily basis.

I have made big enough mistakes myself in situations where I imagned I had all the facts; why depend on poor old Joe Public to make even bigger ones? That's why I think a referendum is always bad news: it depends on ignorance of the facts, little information and no political skills to arrive at hugely important decisions.

Now we have to pick up the pieces and answer to our chldren and grandchildren, and tell them why we fucked up their ability to travel, without asking anybody's permission, wherever in Europe they wanted to go, stop, and hang out their shingle should they think fit. Wonderful Boris, I owe you.

Rob

P.S. Just realised: in all of this, poor old Farage doesn't even raise an eyebrow anymore. Did his bit, served his purpose and now disappears back to where he came from. You were used, buddy, used.

I've got a tenner that says that won't happen, it was pure scaremongering on the remain side.

[Tarnash]

I'm sure that the autopsies and recriminations will continue for years to come.  However, the one lesson that hopefully is not lost amid all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth (both present and yet to come) is; that, the quality of outcomes depends upon the quality of inputs.  From what I have seen and read it seems that the British people were fed (and swallowed) a diet of threats and promises, by both sides, which were mostly hyperbole and/or very substantial distortions of fact.  In an ideal world, effective democracy relies on a well informed body politic and, those seeking or holding office within it are held to the highest standards of honesty and integrity by an independent fourth estate.  Reality is, of course, very different.  Politicians and the media increasingly serve interests other than their constituents or democracy.  In short, they lie, a lot!  And, since we know that they lie, a lot, isn't it our responsibility to: challenge their utterances, ask questions, be skeptical, think critically, look for alternative explanations and answers.  And, if we were to do those things - what chance a President Trump?           

[Justinr]

I'm sure that the autopsies and recriminations will continue for years to come.  However, the one lesson that hopefully is not lost amid all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth (both present and yet to come) is; that, the quality of outcomes depends upon the quality of inputs.  From what I have seen and read it seems that the British people were fed (and swallowed) a diet of threats and promises, by both sides, which were mostly hyperbole and/or very substantial distortions of fact.  In an ideal world, effective democracy relies on a well informed body politic and, those seeking or holding office within it are held to the highest standards of honesty and integrity by an independent fourth estate.  Reality is, of course, very different.  Politicians and the media increasingly serve interests other than their constituents or democracy.  In short, they lie, a lot!  And, since we know that they lie, a lot, isn't it our responsibility to: challenge their utterances, ask questions, be skeptical, think critically, look for alternative explanations and answers.  And, if we were to do those things - what chance a President Trump?         

Indeed the British public were fed a lot of BS and the main complaint of the remain side appears to be that they didn't believe it because the proles are, wait for it, 'uneducated'.

You couldn't make this guff up!

[Manoli]

These are early days, and UK exit is anything but a done deal. There are already rumblings about several potential legal challenges to the result and very vocal grumblings of discontent.

To paraphrase Jolyon Maugham QC
(https://waitingfortax.com/2016/06/24/when-i-say-no-i-mean-maybe/)

The referendum result has created a democratic imperative for the UK to depart but it hasn't created a legal one - yet. This would follow not from the referendum result but from  a British decision to trigger the exit procedure in Article 50 - at which point 'exit' would be irreversible.

A refreshed democratic mandate either by way of a general election or a second referendum, this time for Remain though, would undo the democratic imperative of the first.

Were we to have an early General Election fought by one party on an explicit Remain platform and were that party to prevail it would amount to a ‘refreshed democratic mandate’. The electorate would have spoken such that the result of the Referendum would be superseded.

**
The Irish Times reports that their passport office in London has been swamped with Brits applying for Irish passports. (No, not a joke...) and a petition on YouGov to trigger a second EU referendum has already garnered over 850,000 signatures -  (any petition with over 100,000 signatures has to be considered for a debate in Parliament - in the last six minutes alone it's gone up by over 10,000 votes - by lunchtime today it should be in excess of 1,000,000) not easy to see how this cannot , at the very least, be debated in Parliament - and there is, or was, a very definite 'Remain' majority amongst MPs ...

[Manoli]

Profile of the vote attached ...

[Justinr]

These are early days, and UK exit is anything but a done deal. There are already rumblings about several potential legal challenges to the result and very vocal grumblings of discontent.

To paraphrase Jolyon Maugham QC
(https://waitingfortax.com/2016/06/24/when-i-say-no-i-mean-maybe/)

The referendum result has created a democratic imperative for the UK to depart but it hasn't created a legal one - yet. This would follow not from the referendum result but from  a British decision to trigger the exit procedure in Article 50 - at which point 'exit' would be irreversible.

A refreshed democratic mandate either by way of a general election or a second referendum, this time for Remain though, would undo the democratic imperative of the first.

Were we to have an early General Election fought by one party on an explicit Remain platform and were that party to prevail it would amount to a ‘refreshed democratic mandate’. The electorate would have spoken such that the result of the Referendum would be superseded.

**
The Irish Times reports that their passport office in London has been swamped with Brits applying for Irish passports. (No, not a joke...) and a petition on YouGov to trigger a second EU referendum has already garnered over 850,000 signatures -  (any petition with over 100,000 signatures has to be considered for a debate in Parliament - in the last six minutes alone it's gone up by over 10,000 votes - by lunchtime today it should be in excess of 1,000,000) not easy to see how this cannot , at the very least, be debated in Parliament - and there is, or was, a very definite 'Remain' majority amongst MPs ...

The thing is that exactly the same would happen if it was a remain vote. I've been saying for a long time that unless there is a resounding vote one way or the other then it will be a total ongoing mess as it is proving. What happens if a second vote produces the same margin in reverse, do you honestly think that will go unchallenged? Or is it just a question of the British must keep voting until they produce the 'right' result as happened in Ireland over the Lisbon treaty?

The time has come for compromise and real reform of the EU, both Merkel and Manuel Valls have hinted that it might be necessary for they too are looking at a great deal of dissent in their own countries.

[Justinr]

Profile of the vote attached ...

That's just another example of the losing side stamping their foot and saying how awfully unfair it all was.

[BernardLanguillier]

Why? What makes you think that a high level education results in a single opinion, let alone a PC one? A lot of highly educated people were for the exit, and a lot highly educated people are for Trump. That's just another example of the typical condescension that whoever disagrees with me must be stupid, uneducated, racist, and bigot.

There are certainly hundreds of thousands of educated people in favor of Brexit for reasonnable reasons, but my prerogative is that there are millions of less educated ones who have been sadly impacted by populist proposals playing on people's fears.

Those are the same people who have had little exposure to the cosmopolitan and vivid Europe I know where cultural differences generate opportunities.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Manoli]

That's just another example of the losing side stamping their foot and saying how awfully unfair it all was.

No, it 's a YouGov voting profile - which incidentally sems to very accurately reflect who voted for what.

[Justinr]

There are certainly hundreds of thousands of educated people in favor of Brexit for reasonnable reasons, but my prerogative is that there are millions of less educated ones who have been sadly impacted by populist proposals playing on people's fears.

Those are the same people who have had little exposure to the cosmopolitan and vivid Europe I know where cultural differences generate opportunities.

Cheers,
Bernard

It's funny how the remain side have almost as one latched on to calling the those who voted leave stupid and uneducated.

[JV]

Profile of the vote attached ...

The millennials screwed by the baby boomers...

[Justinr]

No, it 's a YouGov voting profile - which incidentally sems to very accurately reflect who voted for what.

I'm not saying it isn't true, only that the losers have chosen to highlight this particular breakdown of the voters. There are plenty of other ways in which it can be examined I'm sure.

[Justinr]

The millennials screwed by the baby boomers...

How?

[JV]

How?

No offense but the graph is pretty clear, isn't it?  Millennials want to live in a world that is slightly larger than little Britain, and slightly larger than the EU as well for that matter...

I would feel robbed of part of my future as well...

[Justinr]

No offense but the graph is pretty clear, isn't it?  Millennials want to live in a world that is slightly larger than little Britain, and slightly larger than the EU as well for that matter...

I would feel robbed of part of my future as well...

But then again they might want to live in a world over which they have some say, its this stuff called democracy of which the EU suffers something of a major deficit.

[Tarnash]

Profile of the vote attached ...

That's a very interesting piece of information.  I knew there was a significant difference between the `old' (who remember a pre-EU Britain) and `young' (who mostly don't) vote but I'd no idea it was as dramatic as the figures indicate.  With luck, some good may still come of this.  At least some of the previously hard line Eurocentric's seem to be questioning whether they have tried to go too far, too fast.  If there is good will, a willingness to listen to each others concerns and to compromise on both sides maybe, just maybe, there is a way through this.

[JV]

But then again they might want to live in a world over which they have some say, its this stuff called democracy of which the EU suffers something of a major deficit.

As the numbers show they clearly weren't too concerned about that...

[john beardsworth]

But then again they might want to live in a world over which they have some say, its this stuff called democracy of which the EU suffers something of a major deficit.

Unlike British democracy, eh.... A majority government elected on 37% of the popular vote, a second chamber including the hereditary nobility and religious office holders, and a head of state determined by a mixture of DNA and not being the wrong religion.

[pegelli]

A bit more details on how it was divided based on many attributes: Source BBC

It's all interesting information and tells you some stories and maybe where and how the results were achieved. But the bottom line remains the same, the majority voted out and that's what probably will happen. I only hope the the negotiators are not going to play games, if they want out it's out and no dragging of feet to "declare" article 50 later (as Boris was suggesting). That's just plain bad, especially for all the people who didn't have a vote in what's happening now.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Profile of the vote attached ...

The wisdom of experience vs. the foolishness of youth