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Author Topic: 2016 predictions  (Read 7977 times)

eronald

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2016 predictions
« on: December 24, 2015, 11:11:41 am »

As the new year rolls around, I expect the hi-res incumbents to deliver more of the same -

- A larger Sony MF sensor and new Phase and Hassy backs around february, based on the 'old' CFAs. We might see some sort of iPad viewfinder direct connect over Usb3/lightning. The industry will continue to ignore HDMI recorders.
- Sinar might get back in the game with a new tech/view cam system
- Yet another generation of 35mm cameras from Sony at Photokina, this time with handheld stabiliser multishot, churning out super-resolution files eg 200 Mp, as well as real-time Raw. A real tough Sony body with better AF is also in the cards, and possibly AF vesions of the Zeiss Otus lenses as Sony simply cannot fill in its lens range fast enough.

Edmund
« Last Edit: December 24, 2015, 11:19:32 am by eronald »
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Theodoros

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2015, 01:20:21 pm »

As the new year rolls around, I expect the hi-res incumbents to deliver more of the same -

- A larger Sony MF sensor and new Phase and Hassy backs around february, based on the 'old' CFAs. We might see some sort of iPad viewfinder direct connect over Usb3/lightning. The industry will continue to ignore HDMI recorders.
- Sinar might get back in the game with a new tech/view cam system
- Yet another generation of 35mm cameras from Sony at Photokina, this time with handheld stabiliser multishot, churning out super-resolution files eg 200 Mp, as well as real-time Raw. A real tough Sony body with better AF is also in the cards, and possibly AF vesions of the Zeiss Otus lenses as Sony simply cannot fill in its lens range fast enough.

Edmund
You expect wrong... Sensor from now on will be different for Hassy/P1... In 2016, Hassy will downgrade 50c as being their entry lever product and will be introducing larger Cmos sensors (possibly with HQ video ability)...  P1 won't have access to these sensors... If they are to compete, they first have to move the Sony sensor as being their entry product too, but they have to find access to larger Cmos sensor supplier too as these sensors are made for the (huge) motion picture market and are accessible only to ..."friends".
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ErikKaffehr

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2015, 01:54:34 pm »

Hi Edmund,

My comments, see below. Personally, I would like to see better lenses. Right now, I feel that Sony lens program is overpriced, underwhelming and fragmented. I will probably go with Canon lenses. Twice the quality at half the price. Well, not really, more like 50% better quality and 30% lower price.

Best regards
Erik

As the new year rolls around, I expect the hi-res incumbents to deliver more of the same -

- A larger Sony MF sensor and new Phase and Hassy backs around february, based on the 'old' CFAs. We might see some sort of iPad viewfinder direct connect over Usb3/lightning. The industry will continue to ignore HDMI recorders.
May be, may be not. USB3 probably, lightning? I guess that old CFA's may relate to process technologies and also that profiles are much more significant than CFAs.

- Sinar might get back in the game with a new tech/view cam system
Makes sense, if there is a market. Electronic viewing may be a good thing for view cams.

- Yet another generation of 35mm cameras from Sony at Photokina, this time with handheld stabiliser multishot, churning out super-resolution files eg 200 Mp, as well as real-time Raw. A real tough Sony body with better AF is also in the cards, and possibly AF vesions of the Zeiss Otus lenses as Sony simply cannot fill in its lens range fast enough.
I am not sure about the advantages of multishot once fill factor is good enough. Sony has patents on some advanced technologies at the sensor level for multishot. I would not bet on AF Otus, but we may see more 'Batis' lenses. With Sony using on sensor PDAF, AF performance may depend more on sensor technology and computer power than other means. A more "professional" body may make some sense, but not clear about costs/benefits. Seen from my horizon, I would like to have some better features, but I don't think I would be willing to buy another Sony after making a significant expenditure in the A7rII.

Edmund
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Theodoros

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2015, 02:39:52 pm »

Hi Edmund,

My comments, see below. Personally, I would like to see better lenses. Right now, I feel that Sony lens program is overpriced, underwhelming and fragmented. I will probably go with Canon lenses. Twice the quality at half the price. Well, not really, more like 50% better quality and 30% lower price.

Best regards
Erik
What all this has to do with the O/P or the MF section of the forum? ... I believe it's not a conversation on St. Clause wishes... is it?
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ErikKaffehr

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2015, 02:44:10 pm »

Hi,

You never responded to a thread without checking which subforum it belonged to? And did you read the whole posting?

Best regards
Erik


What all this has to do with the O/P or the MF section of the forum? ... I believe it's not a conversation on St. Clause wishes... is it?
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araucaria

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2015, 04:04:15 pm »

I hope they make a 6x7 sensor  8) not that I could afford one but...
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Rob C

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2015, 04:25:11 pm »

I hope they make a 6x7 sensor  8) not that I could afford one but...


Now you're being greedy: a 6x6 would be perfect. And no, I could no more afford than I could than your 6x7!

My prediction? We will both be disappointed. I'm already disappointed.

;-)

Rob C

BernardLanguillier

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2015, 04:39:04 pm »

Edmund,

Agreed, a 36x48mm or larger (not very likely) Sony CMOS using back lighting technology, and therefore more friendly to lenses movements, seems pretty likely.

I would expect this sensor to be 100 mp in order to keep some symbolic breathing space above the upcoming a9/D5x-D900 that I would expect to be around 60+ mp.

This larger sensor will probably be used by P1, Hassy and Pentax.

P1 may also release an EVF also, probably using the Epson part used by Leica in the SL.

These cameras would probably be the first MF bodies I would find 100% appealing but I fear that at least P1 will price them out of reach. On the other hand I expect Hassy to go for a lower price point, closer to Pentax.

Cheers,
Bernard

Theodoros

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2015, 08:05:37 pm »

I believe what you people are missing, is that the Sony (current 51mp) sensor is in reality a motion picture sensor aimed for 8K cinema (8192 rows needed)... Therefore, Sony won't consider another cinema large sensor.... There are larger Cmos sensors in production currently (all made for cinema) that are exclusive to motion picture hardware makers... The access to these sensors is very difficult as they are under contract from the makers  they are exclusively made for and because the MF market is peanuts in comparison as to add something worthwhile in production to consider... Therefore, one should expect only a "friendly" MF maker to have access to the ...charity! Now, Leica seems to have find a supplier, Hasselblad is already providing lenses for Arri 65 (one of the right owners of large format sensors) and if one additionally considers their recent collaboration with other motion picture companies, they seem to have direct access to larger than Sony's sensor solutions (their recent pricing policy where they are moving the Sony sensor as to be their entry product, thus leaving the field open for "larger" is a proof).

One thing is for sure though... if a sensor will be "wide open" to all MF makers, that will be a Sony sensor (which there already is...). All other (future) sensors will be exclussive to one MF maker only... It won't be accessible by the rest of the makers...
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2015, 09:12:58 pm »

In microelectronics, technology developped for large volume beats specialized stuff. Always.

The Leica S 007 is a good example. Its brand new sensor is good in absolute terms, but it is significantly behind the 2 years old Sony part.

Sure, you like Leica and keep claiming the opposite, just like MF vendors kept claiming their CCD sensors had the best DR in the world although Sony based 35mm chips, such as the one used in the D3x, were already ahead years ago.

Going for second rate parts may be ok for Leica because they have other equities they can leverage, but I would be very surprised if Hassy/P1 were willing to risk being over taken accross the board in image quality by soon to be announced 35mm bodies using the latest Sony sensors.

My forecast is that the deal btwn P1 and Sony (trading C1 Pro access against MF chips) isn't stopping at the current 50 mp chip. Pentax is also moving enough bodies that the market is reasonnably appealing overall, especially from a brand image standpoint.

Future will tell.

Cheers,
Bernard

Theodoros

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2015, 10:53:11 pm »

In microelectronics, technology developped for large volume beats specialized stuff. Always.

The Leica S 007 is a good example. Its brand new sensor is good in absolute terms, but it is significantly behind the 2 years old Sony part.


What?  ;D How did you ever come in this conclusion?  :'(


Sure, you like Leica and keep claiming the opposite, just like MF vendors kept claiming their CCD sensors had the best DR in the world although Sony based 35mm chips, such as the one used in the D3x, were already ahead years ago.


What? I don't where you've come to this conclusion either... but I can tell you for sure that a 10 years old 22mp CCD Kodak MF sensor surely beats my D800E for DR... I believe you have the wrong impression about what DR is... It surely isn't what a sensor records... It rather is what you are left with to print after processing...



Going for second rate parts may be ok for Leica because they have other equities they can leverage, but I would be very surprised if Hassy/P1 were willing to risk being over taken accross the board in image quality by soon to be announced 35mm bodies using the latest Sony sensors.



Here is (another) Sony fanatic that can't see that Nikon's 16mp sensor cameras beat all their Sony sensor ones for IQ... Since I have both, I 've concluded the opposite... (please no more DXO mark ratings).



My forecast is that the deal btwn P1 and Sony (trading C1 Pro access against MF chips) isn't stopping at the current 50 mp chip. Pentax is also moving enough bodies that the market is reasonnably appealing overall, especially from a brand image standpoint.

Future will tell.

You really think that there is a deal between P1 & Sony... do you? Man... Sony doesn't give a dime for some hundreds of sensors that P1 may use... They are more interested in selling hundreds of thousands of sensors.... After all, Hassy is selling much more Sony sensors (due to their pricing policy) than P1/Leaf does... and even that isn't enough to provide a motive for Sony as to be important for them... Sony made the 51mp for Hi-End 8k video... who is using it and for what purpose ...they don't even know (or want to know)... Especially if it is the MF market that can only absorb a few thousands of sensors (of all kinds) annually... Have you any idea how many cameras RED or Arri (or Sony) is making annually to service (rental or sales) the world studios for making motion pictures? ....nothing to do with the MF market (as for it to be important) I assure you... ;D It's a market that is counted in 10 figures...  :o
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ErikKaffehr

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #11 on: December 25, 2015, 01:35:57 am »

Hi,

You make a lot of statements with very little substance behind.

If you check the Pentax 645Z, it has 8256 x 6192 pixels, that is 8256 columns and 6192 rows. Full frame 8K would need around 8k rows but normal 8K would need 4320K rows. That said, the sensor could be useful for 4K, sampling a complete RGBG quartet of pixels for each pixel on screen.

In cinematography full frame essentially is very close to APS-C, so Cinema lenses are not developed to cover larger than that, and absolutely not for medium format sensors. Again, 8K may be a different thing, with new lenses and all…

My guess is Sony is making those sensors for MFD cameras, and some special applications.

There is a reason to talk Sony, as that company is dominating the CMOS sensor market, having a market share of about 42%. The remaining 58% is split among smaller firms. Also, Sony is making the only CMOS sensor used MFD cameras, except the one in the Leica S (Type 007). So Pentax 645Z, Phase One, Leaf and Hasselblad are using a 44x33 mm size 50 MP sensor, and Leica is using a 45x30 mm size 37.5 MP sensor.

As far as I know all companies are quite tight lipped about coming developments, but it is assumed that Phase will release 100+ MP sensors sooner or lighter. Reasonably that may be CCDs from DALSA at full frame 645, or CMOS, Sony would be a good candidate for that.

With Canon, Sony and in all probability also Nikon moving into the 40-54 MP resolution business, I would guess that MFD needs to move upscale in resolution. Zeiss is developing some new lenses for those new generation of sensors, two of the Milvus lenses are new constructions and that applies to the new Otus 28 and the Loxia 21/2.8. In addition Zeiss makes the Batis lenses for the Sony. Canon quietly revamped their lens program with generation LII lenses and they also revamped their focusing systems. So, there are a lot of decent quality lenses for 50 MP (or so) on 24x36.

All MFD makers except Leica use larger size sensors sporting less rectangular formats. I also think that Leica keeps their own sensor and doesn't sell to other makers. Also, it seems that Leica is not interested in larger format or more megapixels.

Just to make some small point. Would you know anything about things you would be under one or several NDAs. So you obviously speculate. Those who know are not allowed to tell.

Best regards
Erik


I believe what you people are missing, is that the Sony (current 51mp) sensor is in reality a motion picture sensor aimed for 8K cinema (8192 rows needed)... Therefore, Sony won't consider another cinema large sensor.... There are larger Cmos sensors in production currently (all made for cinema) that are exclusive to motion picture hardware makers... The access to these sensors is very difficult as they are under contract from the makers  they are exclusively made for and because the MF market is peanuts in comparison as to add something worthwhile in production to consider... Therefore, one should expect only a "friendly" MF maker to have access to the ...charity! Now, Leica seems to have find a supplier, Hasselblad is already providing lenses for Arri 65 (one of the right owners of large format sensors) and if one additionally considers their recent collaboration with other motion picture companies, they seem to have direct access to larger than Sony's sensor solutions (their recent pricing policy where they are moving the Sony sensor as to be their entry product, thus leaving the field open for "larger" is a proof).

One thing is for sure though... if a sensor will be "wide open" to all MF makers, that will be a Sony sensor (which there already is...). All other (future) sensors will be exclussive to one MF maker only... It won't be accessible by the rest of the makers...
« Last Edit: December 25, 2015, 04:14:13 am by ErikKaffehr »
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landscapephoto

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2015, 03:08:48 am »

That is not a prediction, that is a comparison of the sizes of current cinema sensors:



You will notice that they are wider than current MF sensors.

Arri uses repackaged Hasselblad HC lenses on the Alexa 65, BTW.
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eronald

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #13 on: December 25, 2015, 08:01:01 am »

Seasons greetings to all.

I predict that the new year will see many here still obsessing about gear.

Ah, our logician friend demonstrates the "tautology".

Edmund
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Theodoros

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #14 on: December 25, 2015, 08:18:42 am »

Leica does have interest in larger (size) sensors... They have Sinarbacks to consider... The fact that they stick to 6μm pixel pitch for all their sensors that are equal or larger than 24x36mm FF, is obviously a choice they've done after research, as to find the optimum balance between resolution and the rest of IQ factors that are related to sensor quality. After all, pixel count on a sensor is hardly a factor that affects the sales of a large sensor product.

As far as predictions are concerned, since Hasselblad is moving the Sony sensor as to be their entry level product and additionally, doesn't want to sell the H5D-40 & 60 products (which are appearing in their catalog only to avoid people thinking that they are an one sensor company), is a proof that they are making room for new (larger) sensor products... By the way, the timing and the new pricing policy from Hasselblad, also  suggests that the new sensors  are to be expected very soon indeed.

Now if one looks at Hasselblad's promotion logo for the H5D-50c (which is "the best Hasselblad ever made" from day one) it clearly suggests that there will be no more CCD sensors coming from Hasselblad and one should expect (naturally) the new larger sensors coming to improve on H5D-50 quality...

The thing is that there are a few labs in the world that can make large Cmos sensors and even those labs don't make sensors for the "open market" but only exclusive to makers... On the other hand, the demand for large sensor hi end cinema is growing fast (there are four sensors larger than 42mm - all Cmos) and all large sensors are exclusively made for the cinema camera  as no two makers use the same sensor. This market is by far larger than the MF market will ever be as there are hundreds of films made world wide every year using these cameras and no film can be done using only one (or two or three or four) cameras & lens lines...

As one would then expect, other than Sony labs (which are the only ones making sensors "open" to the market) won't bother making a few hundreds of sensors annually for an MF maker to use, unless this sensor is based on an already existing exclusive to a cinema maker one...

Now, for an MF maker to use such a sensor, he needs to do so after license from the cinema camera maker that the sensor is exclusively made for... Hasselblad seems to have a collaboration agreement with Arri (of which the exclusive sensor made for them is possibly the best sensor there is) which ended up for them making the lenses for their top model (the Arri 65)... It is then (again) reasonable to conclude that Hasselblad does have access to a larger than 33x44mm Cmos sensor (exclusive to them among MF makers)... Leica, (which also supplies lenses for hi-end cinema) seems additionally to work hard on improoving the video performance on their later cameras (S-007 & SL) clearly aiming to catch up in hi-end cinema technology, they've find an maker for their (exclusive to them) sensors...

As for the rest of the makers, if they've find a solution or not remains to be seen...




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Franzl

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #15 on: December 25, 2015, 11:49:45 am »

I am predicting having loads of fun with my current XF 150 setup :-) photokina year is always interesting though.
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landscapephoto

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #16 on: December 25, 2015, 12:30:30 pm »

On the other hand, the demand for large sensor hi end cinema is growing fast (there are four sensors larger than 42mm - all Cmos) and all large sensors are exclusively made for the cinema camera  as no two makers use the same sensor.

And what are these four sensors, please?
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yashima

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #17 on: December 25, 2015, 01:48:13 pm »

Theodoros: Undoubtedly the cinema equipment market as a whole is bigger than photography market. However sensor is a really small component of that, is it really true that it's worth a lot more to the sensor makers? Very few cinematographers own their equipment outright, only production and rental house, while most photographers do.
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Theodoros

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #18 on: December 25, 2015, 07:34:12 pm »

That is not a prediction, that is a comparison of the sizes of current cinema sensors:



You will notice that they are wider than current MF sensors.

Arri uses repackaged Hasselblad HC lenses on the Alexa 65, BTW.


Can't help to notice that the (exclusive to RED)  Weapon Dragon 8K sensor (42mm width) is missing... Also... the Alexa 65 sensor is slightly bigger that the Alexa 765 image area at 54.12mm width (and is also missing)...  Obviously the comparison chart is older as it doesn't include the latest 2015 sensors from the leading makers...
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: 2016 predictions
« Reply #19 on: December 26, 2015, 12:41:47 am »

Can't help to notice that the (exclusive to RED)  Weapon Dragon 8K sensor (42mm width) is missing... Also... the Alexa 65 sensor is slightly bigger that the Alexa 765 image area at 54.12mm width (and is also missing)...  Obviously the comparison chart is older as it doesn't include the latest 2015 sensors from the leading makers...

But it is still pretty clear that the 50mp chip used by P1/Hassy/Pentax wasn't designed for video, right?

Cheers,
Bernard
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