I just dug out my Oppenheim & Schafer, and I think I remember again how this goes.
The thing about quantization noise is that it doesn't actually go away, it simply adds on to whatever your dithered-in noise is. This is actually very useful if you are oversampling because it lets you trade sample rate for bit depth.
In effect, that smooth change across the sky which gets posterized can be completely reconstructed with a blur (de-noising).
In the simple model of posterization, you just get a patch of one tone separated from a patch of another tone, and a sharp line between them.
With dither noise, you get that, plus a speckled pattern of noise (which you may consider is "random spots of the darker tone in the lighter region" and "ransom spots of the lighter tone in the darker region") that gets, statistically, darker as the sky got darker. The posterization is still there, it's just hard to see, because the storm of random dots is quite dense at the "sharp line".
Then you apply a de-noiser, and the sky's lovely gradient returns, in all its glorious detail.
This doesn't work for fine detail which was less than one bit in amplitude.
The photon counting argument doesn't work, because perhaps the detail was all tucked in to 12.0 through 13.0 (well, wait, I guess maybe it does, if we assume a completely linear system that's actually counting photons? are there any sensors that actually are?
Let the ADC round it all down to 12 and the detail is simply gone, there's no getting it back.
If you let the analog amplifier do its thing, then you get that 12.0-13.0 range expanded out before the ADC gets its filthy little hands on it, and you can recover some of the detail. Yes, there will also be a lot of noise, since you're probably dealing with various kinds of noise at roughly the same amplitudes as the signals we're dealing with, but your signal will be, in some cases, present and visible. De-noising will, of course, almost certainly destroy it.
All this assumes that there IS an analog amplification step, which isn't at all clear is universally true. There's an incredible amount of speculation and blather out there, though.
It's a corner case, to be sure, but if you want to see if the system is or is not working for you, find some midtone region with very fine detail that's very low contrast, so low contrast that it's only visible as modulated noise. Test it one way, test it the other, if you can see a difference, then you can be sure the analog ISO amplifier system is bringing some value.