PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[BernardLanguillier]

Yes, in America, that is likely the case.

Elsewhere, I don't think so.

And what needs to be said is that the number of death resulting will change dramatically depending on the way the confinement is managed.

Everybody could get it with limited impact on casualties and economy if managed the right way.

Which certainly isn’t the Trump way.

Regards,
Bernard

[Peter McLennan]

Trump has street smarts ...

Really?  On what street is he smart? AFAIKS, as demonstrated by his performance so far, he has zero smarts.  He can't even lie effectively.

Oh, wait. Lemme qualify that.  He is an excellent carnival barker/huckster/bullshit artist.

And if you think that the world of geopolitics in the 21st century is best managed by a TV star/real estate developer with zero experience in anything related to government or global issues, well, the mind boggles.

[Peter McLennan]

As I have said before, if Klobuchar had won, you would probably be looking at Trump loosing.

Right.  Definitive proof right there that Trumpers' unvarying support for trump, regardless of all evidence to the contrary, relies totally on the fact that they are slow learners.

[John Camp]

We're all going to get this anyway, that's a fact. 

It's 3 times more contagious then the flu and we will not have a vaccine for at least 18 months, if ever.  There is no cure to the common cold and the common cold is a corona virus.  It does not sound too promising. 

We have to get on with life eventually, and we will all be doing the Swedish options when that happens.  I'd rather just accept that and get on with life.

You know, Joe, you could do this -- just go get it, and get it over with, instead of just talking about it.  Or, you could refuse to be shut in, and go back to work, but take some precautions -- maybe wear a mask, make sure you wash you hands a lot, and hope to avoid it, but take the risk.

But, not everybody's going to get it. A lot of people, like Alan,  are worried (as I am -- I'm older than Alan) and so we're a bit careful. Given that, I doubt that even half of Americans will get it. It's more contagious than the flu, but people who get the flu take no precautions at all. You'll hear some media person say occasionally that you should wash you hands during flu season, but basically, if you don't want to get the flu, you get a flu shot. Only about half of Americans actually get one. The rest walk around with no protections, no social distancing, no shut-downs. That's roughly 165 million people, half the American population. Yet, the CDC's high estimate of people who got the flu this season is 56 million, or about a third of non-vaccinated people. So, it's quite possible to avoid even a pretty infectious disease, and most people do, which is probably why they don't get flu shots. The Oxford group thinks it will have a vaccine in mass production by September or so. I fully plan to hold out until then, or well past then, which I can do. Once we have a vaccine, we should be good. There's no vaccine for the corona viruses that cause a cold because there wouldn't be much money in it -- vaccines are expensive to make, but not many people die from the common cold, so few people would bother with getting a shot that might make you feel funky for three days, when the cold last four days. Anyway, I doubt that most people in America will get Covid-19; but a lot will.

[LesPalenik]

You know, Joe, you could do this -- just go get it, and get it over with, instead of just talking about it.  Or, you could refuse to be shut in, and go back to work, but take some precautions -- maybe wear a mask, make sure you wash you hands a lot, and hope to avoid it, but take the risk.

But, not everybody's going to get it. A lot of people, like Alan,  are worried (as I am -- I'm older than Alan) and so we're a bit careful. Given that, I doubt that even half of Americans will get it. It's more contagious than the flu, but people who get the flu take no precautions at all. You'll hear some media person say occasionally that you should wash you hands during flu season, but basically, if you don't want to get the flu, you get a flu shot. Only about half of Americans actually get one. The rest walk around with no protections, no social distancing, no shut-downs. That's roughly 165 million people, half the American population. Yet, the CDC's high estimate of people who got the flu this season is 56 million, or about a third of non-vaccinated people. So, it's quite possible to avoid even a pretty infectious disease, and most people do, which is probably why they don't get flu shots. The Oxford group thinks it will have a vaccine in mass production by September or so. I fully plan to hold out until then, or well past then, which I can do. Once we have a vaccine, we should be good. There's no vaccine for the corona viruses that cause a cold because there wouldn't be much money in it -- vaccines are expensive to make, but not many people die from the common cold, so few people would bother with getting a shot that might make you feel funky for three days, when the cold last four days. Anyway, I doubt that most people in America will get Covid-19; but a lot will.

To be more precise, if 165 million people get vaccinated, for half of them the vaccine won't do much (currently the effectiveness of flu vaccine is estimated at 40-60%), so there will be almost 250 million unprotected people walking around (165 without vaccine and 82.5 with an ineffective vaccine). The results for C19 vaccine might be similar.

[armand]

On another line, because everything is related to Kevin Bacon: https://youtu.be/ikkEtJGYebc
(short song about the quarantine)

PS. there is a much better quality video on facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KevinBacon/videos/254474472591917/

[BernardLanguillier]

To be more precise, if 165 million people get vaccinated, for half of them the vaccine won't do much (currently the effectiveness of flue vaccine is estimated at 40-60%), so there will be almost 250 million unprotected people walking around (165 without vaccine and 82.5 with an ineffective vaccine). The results for C19 vaccine might be similar.

For the flu its ineffectivity results mostly from seasonal mutations of the virus right?

I don’t think we already have this visibility for the covid19, do we?

Cheers,
Bernard

[Alan Klein]

You first need to be a grown up adult having his/her ego in check.

You appear to have a playstation view of the world where strategic diplomacy is handled as a series of kungfu fights but the only place where things happen that way is in your imagination.

What is needed to deal with Xi and Kim is first an ability to listen to experts and to take in their advice in the context of a sound understanding of the global stakes of the world. An understanding that requires studying because the world is complex even if you’d prefer it to be simple.

Trump doesn’t have any of that. His understanding is limited to one stupidely basic idea « I’ll just act as I feel (not think) is right and bully my counterpart to accept my position ». It works sometimes in some situations. You can score apparent short term wins.

But why would you need to keep deforming reality time and again if it were solid?

The claim that every politicians lie and that it’s therefore ok for Trump also is idiotic because it overlooks the obvious fact that degree matters a lot. Not all things can be told to the public all the time. This can be debated but isn’t unreasonable. But here it’s more about lying all the time. Mostly lying to you, his supporters. On life and death matters.

Trump is like those financial pyramidal scams where running away upwards is the only way to keep the ball rolling. And you blindly keep supporting that.

Cheers,
Bernard

Bernard, I'll repeat what I said earlier.  Trump or Biden?  That's it.   

Biden cannot be an effective president.  He's out to lunch or sleeping or whatever.  He doesn't have the stamina, mental agility, and toughness to run America.  He'd get walked over by foreigners which might be why foreigners are opposed to Trump.  They'd be able to roll over Biden.  Whatever Trump's faults are, he knows how to protect us and run a tight ship.  His style is aggressive, egotistical, confusing at times, but mainly clearly delineated.  But you got to take the bad with the good and he's a better president that Biden would make.  Plus Trump has 4 years experience on the job.  He's proven himself as a wartime president.  The best thing for the country is to re-elect Trump and then Democrats can run a real leader in 2024.

[LesPalenik]

For the flu its ineffectivity results mostly from seasonal mutations of the virus right?

I don’t think we already have this visibility for the covid19, do we?

Cheers,
Bernard

I don't have the slightest idea, and most likely even the experts don't know. It's still to early to tell.
However, it's been reported that the C19 virus already mutated into several flavours, which were similar to the original virus. Over time it could mutate into a weaker or a much deadlier virus.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19

[Alan Klein]

To be more precise, if 165 million people get vaccinated, for half of them the vaccine won't do much (currently the effectiveness of flue vaccine is estimated at 40-60%), so there will be almost 250 million unprotected people walking around (165 without vaccine and 82.5 with an ineffective vaccine). The results for C19 vaccine might be similar.

Herd immunity might be the best defense, if the virus doesn't mutate like the flu.  I'm waiting for the rest of the herd to get their antibodies.  Then I'll come out. 

[LesPalenik]

Herd immunity might be the best defense, if the virus doesn't mutate like the flu.  I'm waiting for the rest of the herd to get their antibodies.  Then I'll come out. 

To me, the herd immunity sounds a lot like bitcoin.

[Alan Klein]

To me, the herd immunity sounds a lot like bitcoin.

Actually, herd immunity works.  Because it slows down the spread and allows it to die out from lack of people to transmit too.  I posted a really interesting video that demonstrated the varoius ways infection occur in a society based on distance, immunity, etc.  It's either here or on the other thread a couple of days ago.  I'll see if I can find it and repost it here.

[LesPalenik]

Actually, herd immunity works.  Because it slows down the spread and allows it to die out from lack of people to transmit too.  I posted a really interesting video that demonstrated the varoius ways infection occur in a society based on distance, immunity, etc.  It's either here or on the other thread a couple of days ago.  I'll see if I can find it and repost it here.

Yes, in theory it should work.  But if people think about doing the same things as before and in the same way as before, also the virus could return in the same way as before.

Canada's top doctor says there isn't enough evidence to back herd immunity as a way to reopen society, as Quebec's premier is considering the approach to restart his province's economy. "The idea of ... generating natural immunity is actually not something that should be undertaken," Canada's Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam said Saturday, urging people to be "extremely cautious" about the concept.

Herd immunity is conferred when enough people in a given population have been infected with a virus, marking them immune to reinfection and slowing down the rate at which the virus spreads on its own. The World Health Organization (WHO) published a brief Friday stating that there is "currently no evidence" that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies would be protected from a second infection, but clarified Saturday that most people infected would end up with "some level of protection."

Tam's comments come as Quebec Premier François Legault expressed interest in herd immunity this week as a means to reopen businesses and allow children to return to school. "The idea is to gradually — and that's the important word — to gradually let people go out, let children go out," he said Thursday, adding that those under 60 years of age might be candidates for developing immunity. Tam rejected the suggestion that in the absence of a vaccine, some members of Canada's population could offer protection to society's most vulnerable. "Even a young person might get severely sick or get into the ICU, so it's not a concept that should be supported," she said. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/herd-immunity-should-not-be-supported-tam-says-1.5545332

[Alan Klein]

Here's the video.  It's fascinating and well worth watching.  The only simulation he didn't show is what happens if the virus dies out on its own.  But otherwise, he takes you through many variables. You can watch a graphic of how it spreads through a community and  multiple cities.  He changes various parameters so you can see how isolation would affect it, or infection rate, etc.

Covid 19
Simulating an epidemic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

[Alan Klein]

Here's the video.  It's fascinating and well worth watching.  The only simulation he didn't show is what happens if the virus dies out on its own.  But otherwise, he takes you through many variables. You can watch a graphic of how it spreads through a community and  multiple cities.  He changes various parameters so you can see how isolation would affect it, or infection rate, etc.

Covid 19
Simulating an epidemic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

Starting around 7:50 or so, he explain how randomness in even his runs can change rate by 3 fold.  I't wonder if that explains why some areas didn't seem to be so bad while others were worse.  Just the luck of the draw and not necessarily something anyone did. 

[Peter McLennan]

Whatever Trump's faults are, he knows how to protect us and run a tight ship.

What has he successfully protected you from so far?

(Not counting the "illegal immigrants" who mow your lawns, clean your hotel rooms and harvest your vegetables?)

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... they have admitted they failed - Covid has run rife through their care-homes.)..

I think the phrase he (the Swede) used is something like “We could have done better.” That’s far from a failure.

P.S. thanks for summarizing. I stopped watching tv, videos, or podcasts for all the fluff that surrounds a few key words or points.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

...And if you think that the world of geopolitics in the 21st century is best managed by a TV star/real estate developer with zero experience in anything related to government or global issues, well, the mind boggles.

Well...

We tried with a highly educated, polished, well-spoken guy, with “zero experience in anything related to government or global issues” because of the color of his skin, and it ended up with disastrous results. So we said, what the heck, let’s try something else this time.

[elliot_n]

I think the phrase he (the Swede) used is something like “We could have done better.” That’s far from a failure.

Here's what was said:

Interviewer: So you think the correct policy from the start, just to get this clear, should have been to shield old and vulnerable groups?

Prof Johan Giesecke: There we failed. Sweden failed. We were not on our toes enough to really shield the old people. We should have banned visitors earlier. Many of the people working in nursing homes are from other countries (refugees or asylum-seekers in Sweden). Their Swedish may not be perfect. They may not always understand information that has been spread to the population. There are many things we could have done better, a couple of weeks, or a couple of months ago.

From the interview at 17:25: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

So, yes, he is not saying that the policy is a failure. But he is admitting that Sweden's execution of the policy failed. Neil Ferguson's argument is that such a policy will always fail - that it is impossible to successfully isolate the old and the vulnerable from all human contact.

Interestingly, the Swedes assume an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.1% (so no more deadly than the flu), whereas the Brits put it at 0.8%.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Here's what was said:...

I stand corrected.