COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[armand]

His statistics lack credibility.  Here's his post.

"2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment."

As of April 30, total worldwide statistics are 3.2 million cases, 1 million recovered, 228K died.  In the US death rate is 5.86% on 1.03M confirmed and 61K dead.  Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS.  So for him to claim there are some countries with 1% without telling us who,(I'm sure there are other little countries with inaccurate statistics as well) is to paint a cherry picked picture.   Where did he get the 30% figure?  It also would be helpful if he provided the link to his statistic's data so we can analyze for ourselves.  His "opinion" that the statistics indicate a lack of early treatment is questionable.  What does that even mean?  That people waited to go to the hospital when they were practically dead?  Or because medical services in the US are poor, a condition I doubt very much compared to the rest of the world.  Frankly. I'm not surprised you would sign off on the questionable accuracies of these statistics without doing some due diligence.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-recoveries-deaths-worldwide/

You are missing the point and you need to check the meaning of accuracy.
That stat/graph is accurate for what it was measuring, only the info is incomplete and overall not very valuable per se.

That his interpretation is not optimal doesn't make that statistic biased. You should take that with the interpreter, not the source.

[chez]

Sampling is one possibility.  If you do random testing of a population to see if they have antibodies which would mean they had the disease, you can determine an estimate of the percentage for the entire population.  It's like polling.

The worse recent seasonal flu was two years ago in the 2017-2018 season. These high numbers occurred despite there was a flu vaccine and medicine superior to what Covid 19 has. 

Seasonal influenza (flu)
Symptomatic illnesses 45,000,000   
Medical visits   21,000,000   
Hospitalizations   810,000   
Deaths   61,000   (In the last five years, seasonal flu has killed over 200,000 Americans without a single plant being closed)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

Worst year seasonal flu deaths were 61,000 over the entire year. Covid has surpassed that in just over 1 month...and that's with lockdowns.

[BobShaw]

Worst year seasonal flu deaths were 61,000 over the entire year. Covid has surpassed that in just over 1 month...and that's with lockdowns.

Well what are the lockdowns? We see pictures of thousands gathered shoulder to shoulder at a "freedom" rally (whatever that is).
Here in Australia everyone would have received a $1000 fine for a first offence.
The current Covid death total is about 15% of the annual flu rate.
I think that is similar for most countries.

From today (1 May) restrictions are being eased so you can visit family, parks etc.
In two days we have 3 million people who have voluntarily downloaded the app in a population of 25 million.
If every level of government is not putting out the same message then it gets out of control through confusion.

[BobShaw]

His statistics lack credibility.  Here's his post.

"2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment."

As of April 30, total worldwide statistics are 3.2 million cases, 1 million recovered, 228K died.  In the US death rate is 5.86% on 1.03M confirmed and 61K dead.  Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS.  So for him to claim there are some countries with 1% without telling us who,(I'm sure there are other little countries with inaccurate statistics as well) is to paint a cherry picked picture.   Where did he get the 30% figure?  It also would be helpful if he provided the link to his statistic's data so we can analyze for ourselves.  His "opinion" that the statistics indicate a lack of early treatment is questionable.  What does that even mean?  That people waited to go to the hospital when they were practically dead?  Or because medical services in the US are poor, a condition I doubt very much compared to the rest of the world.  Frankly. I'm not surprised you would sign off on the questionable accuracies of these statistics without doing some due diligence.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-recoveries-deaths-worldwide/

> Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS<
How do you know that? If the leaders of Russia and China especially but in fact many other countries told people to do something would they not do it? China we know had  a total lockdown with military enforcement and drones spraying the streets. You have "freedom" marches.
Have you been to Russia? Fabulous country.

You have the CIA, FBI, 5 eyes network and that crap but you don't seem to see the easy stuff. Explain spending five or so years in Vietnam after you knew you couldn't win. At some stage you have to accept that what you are doing may not be the right approach. It is admitting a  mistake and fixing it.

>So for him to claim there are some countries with 1% without telling us who,(I'm sure there are other little countries with inaccurate statistics as well) is to paint a cherry picked picture. <
Go and look at them. I know that you can have a "world series" and not invite other countries, but there are actually over 200 of them. Most of them are free but they are not pig headed. Why do "little countries have inaccurate stats? Is there some different maths?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

>Or because medical services in the US are poor, a condition I doubt very much compared to the rest of the world.<
I am sure US medical services are great, if you can get to them. If people are not encouraged or can not afford to come to hospital if sick then they won't until they are very sick. Then it may be too late. How accessible are they? If New York has 14 million people then how many ICU beds do they have for the general public?

I really think that you would have difficulty believing any statistics that questioned your polarised view of the universe.

[John Camp]

> Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS<
How do you know that? If the leaders of Russia and China especially but in fact many other countries told people to do something would they not do it? China we know had  a total lockdown with military enforcement and drones spraying the streets. You have "freedom" marches.
Have you been to Russia? Fabulous country.

I've been to Russia, and I would be hard pressed to stay that it is a fabulous country, rather, say, than a country with fabulous potential and some great people (It does have some excellent museums, although they're pretty universally under-funded and shabby.) But Russia essentially has two media streams -- the more or less official media, and the underground net-based media. The official media says that things are concerning, but not terrible, and that the virus will some day go away like magic -- in other words, the Russian version of the Trump message. The underground, unofficial media, says that the Russian medical system is breaking under the strain, has already broken in Moscow if you're not among the favored elite, and that the corona virus is tearing the country a new one. [For those of you on this forum who are not familiar with American slang, substitute "asshole" for "one" in the last sentence.]

 

[John Camp]

Here's a news clip that should interest people here:




It worked on monkeys, so researchers at the University of Oxford have high hopes that their coronavirus vaccine will also work on humans.
But they don’t expect preliminary results until the middle of June, John Bell, a regius professor of medicine at Oxford, told BBC Radio on Thursday.
Human trials — the first in Europe for a vaccine — began April 23, following successful tests on rhesus macaque monkeys in late March.

The results were so promising that British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca agreed to partner with the Oxford team to help ramp up production of the hAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine once the human trials are completed, according to the BBC.

AstraZeneca isn’t the only Big Pharma company betting on the vaccine. Last week, the Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine maker, announced it would begin mass-producing hAdOx1 nCoV-19 without it being approved or even knowing if it works.

Manufacturing a vaccine before it’s proven effective and before it receives regulatory approval flips the normal development process on its head. It’s a huge risk, but one that some companies are willing to take in order to get a jump on deploying a vaccine on the massive scale needed to defeat the pandemic.

[BobShaw]

The official media says that things are concerning, but not terrible, and that the virus will some day go away like magic -- in other words, the Russian version of the Trump message. The underground, unofficial media, says that the Russian medical system is breaking under the strain, has already broken in Moscow if you're not among the favored elite, and that the corona virus is tearing the country a new one. [For those of you on this forum who are not familiar with American slang, substitute "asshole" for "one" in the last sentence.]

Is that dissimilar to anywhere? Should the official sources say positive things or tell us we are all going to die?
The purpose of any leadership, government or first aiders is to reassure the people and provide a path forward. Facebook media tries to make things worse. There is a media saying that "good news is no news".

The truth is somewhere in between. All hospital systems in all countries are, or have been under strain. That should be improving.

[LesPalenik]

Here's a news clip that should interest people here:

4 blank lines and no clip

[Alan Klein]

> Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS<
How do you know that? If the leaders of Russia and China especially but in fact many other countries told people to do something would they not do it? China we know had  a total lockdown with military enforcement and drones spraying the streets. You have "freedom" marches.
Have you been to Russia? Fabulous country.

You have the CIA, FBI, 5 eyes network and that crap but you don't seem to see the easy stuff. Explain spending five or so years in Vietnam after you knew you couldn't win. At some stage you have to accept that what you are doing may not be the right approach. It is admitting a  mistake and fixing it.

>So for him to claim there are some countries with 1% without telling us who,(I'm sure there are other little countries with inaccurate statistics as well) is to paint a cherry picked picture. <
Go and look at them. I know that you can have a "world series" and not invite other countries, but there are actually over 200 of them. Most of them are free but they are not pig headed. Why do "little countries have inaccurate stats? Is there some different maths?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

>Or because medical services in the US are poor, a condition I doubt very much compared to the rest of the world.<
I am sure US medical services are great, if you can get to them. If people are not encouraged or can not afford to come to hospital if sick then they won't until they are very sick. Then it may be too late. How accessible are they? If New York has 14 million people then how many ICU beds do they have for the general public?

I really think that you would have difficulty believing any statistics that questioned your polarised view of the universe.

Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one.  I guess you didn't read the news how the Navy Hospital ship in NY harbor and the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan that was converted into a hospital were practically empty. 

Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America.  It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease.  Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.

[BobShaw]

Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one. ...
Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America. ...

> Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one.  I guess you didn't read the news how the Navy Hospital ship in NY harbor and the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan that was converted into a hospital were practically empty. 

The rest got boxes or bags? The ship was meant to take non Covid patients. Like in every country of the world, non Covid patients avoided a hospital like the plague. We have opened up elective surgery as our hospitals are empty too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-usns-comfort.html

>Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America.  It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease.  Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.

Every country has Chinese visitors. Being in the same time zone we probably get more per capita than the US. We had 30,000 Chinese students returning for a start out of a total of 106,000 enrolled.
They were either stopped by no flights or did 14 days mandatory detention like everyone else, even returning Australians.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one.  I guess you didn't read the news how the Navy Hospital ship in NY harbor and the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan that was converted into a hospital were practically empty. 

Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America.  It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease.  Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.

Sure they got a bed - even if it was a resting place in trucks, and left to rotten.

The blame it on the chinese spiel is stale. In many countries, including Portugal, while it was still possible to track the infection chains, there were confirmed cases coming in form as many as 20 countries.

Also, did you know that the "spanish flu" actually was brought into Europe from Kansas? Spain ended up with a bad reputation because they were the first country to report it.

[elliot_n]

It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease.  Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.

Do you have any evidence that the virus was introduced to New York by 'sick Chinese'? A link, perhaps?

I'm only aware of the research that suggests New York's outbreak was caused by visitors from Europe and other parts of the US.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-coronavirus-outbreak-originated-europe-study-finds/story?id=70062642

[LesPalenik]

Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America.  It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease.  Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.

As I stated in the other C19 thread, even small countries receive many Chinese visitors. For example, relatively small Czech republic received in 2018 over 600,000 Chinese visitors, most probably even more in 2019. However, the Czech government was very resolute and quick in closing the borders to all international travellers starting in February.

[Alan Klein]

> Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one.  I guess you didn't read the news how the Navy Hospital ship in NY harbor and the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan that was converted into a hospital were practically empty. 

The rest got boxes or bags? The ship was meant to take non Covid patients. Like in every country of the world, non Covid patients avoided a hospital like the plague. We have opened up elective surgery as our hospitals are empty too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-usns-comfort.html

>Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America.  It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease.  Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.

Every country has Chinese visitors. Being in the same time zone we probably get more per capita than the US. We had 30,000 Chinese students returning for a start out of a total of 106,000 enrolled.
They were either stopped by no flights or did 14 days mandatory detention like everyone else, even returning Australians.

You picked an early article when the ship was first assigned.   It is true that the initial purpose was to take non Covid 19 patients.  That would relieve regular hospitals to have more beds for Covid patients.  As it turned out, the hospitals didn't need to send any regular patients to the ship.  So NY Governor Cuomo asked President Trump to reassign the ship to accept Covid patients which is what he did. The ship was completely refitted for the Covid purpose.  However, the hospitals were still able to handle the Covid cases and the 1000 bed ship only received 182 patients.  It stayed a month and left not being needed any longer.

The Jacob Javits Convention Center was converted to a 2500 bed hospital.  However, it only topped out at 500 patients at the worse time.

Smearing America's and New York's care for its people isn't right.
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/04/30/hospital-ship-comfort-departs-nyc-having-treated-fewer-than-200-patients/

[Alan Klein]

Do you have any evidence that the virus was introduced to New York by 'sick Chinese'? A link, perhaps?

I'm only aware of the research that suggests New York's outbreak was caused by visitors from Europe and other parts of the US.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-coronavirus-outbreak-originated-europe-study-finds/story?id=70062642

Infections came from Europe, the west coast and direct from Asia according to this article.    Since the virus started in China, it was Chinese who infected others and all these infected people visited NYC a hub of international travel. 

"Not all the New York virus samples have European origins. Some appear to have come from the U.S. West Coast, while others appear to link directly to Asia. That indicates that there are numerous chains of transmission in the metro area, as would be expected in such a large outbreak."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/most-nyc-covid-19-cases-came-from-europe-genome-researchers-say

[elliot_n]

Infections came from Europe, the west coast and direct from Asia according to this article.    Since the virus started in China, it was Chinese who infected others and all these infected people visited NYC a hub of international travel. 

"Not all the New York virus samples have European origins. Some appear to have come from the U.S. West Coast, while others appear to link directly to Asia. That indicates that there are numerous chains of transmission in the metro area, as would be expected in such a large outbreak."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/most-nyc-covid-19-cases-came-from-europe-genome-researchers-say

Both news articles are based on the following research study. It's very technical, but, as far as I can tell, only one sample out of 84 was the strain found in Asia. The rest were predominantly of European origin, with a few of US origin. The NY outbreak was not caused by sick Chinese visitors (banned from 31 Jan), but by visitors from Europe (banned much later 11-14 Mar).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20056929v1.full.pdf

[faberryman]

Here is an article that shows comparing the number of regular flu deaths to COVID-19 deaths is misleading

https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html

[chez]

Sure they got a bed - even if it was a resting place in trucks, and left to rotten.

The blame it on the chinese spiel is stale. In many countries, including Portugal, while it was still possible to track the infection chains, there were confirmed cases coming in form as many as 20 countries.

Also, did you know that the "spanish flu" actually was brought into Europe from Kansas? Spain ended up with a bad reputation because they were the first country to report it.

In Canada ( British Columbia ) there were many infections traced back to Americans crossing the border into Vancouver before the border was locked down. So yeh, the spread is world wide, not just one way from China.

[Alan Klein]

Both news articles are based on the following research study. It's very technical, but, as far as I can tell, only one sample out of 84 was the strain found in Asia. The rest were predominantly of European origin, with a few of US origin. The NY outbreak was not caused by sick Chinese visitors (banned from 31 Jan), but by visitors from Europe (banned much later 11-14 Mar).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20056929v1.full.pdf

It seems to me that the virus hit Italy and Spain first after China.  So the infected came from Europe to NY.  ALthough CHinese were banned from the west coast, many came in to NYC through Europe.  So there were probably a combination of European stock and Chinese who came through Europe.  I recall reading that there were CHinese who came here through EUrope in another article.

[chez]

Here is an article that shows comparing the number of regular flu deaths to COVID-19 deaths is misleading

https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html

Yes, if we are to compare Covid to the flu, we need to collect the data following the same process.

I have been involved with long term care homes ( both my parents and now my in laws ) and I cannot recount a single death during roughly 5 years that was the result of the yearly flu. And that's without any kind of lock down of the facilities...just a poster on the walls informing visitors to not enter the facility if they felt ill.

Now with Covid, we've seen it run havoc through these same type of facilities. Me thinks Covid is much more dangerous than the yearly flu.