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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 200954 times)

KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #900 on: April 27, 2020, 01:46:09 pm »

Coronavirus alert: Rare syndrome seen in UK children

BBC article highlighting a new rare but dangerous reaction in children that may be linked to coronavirus infection.

Jeremy Roussak

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #901 on: April 27, 2020, 02:06:37 pm »

You must really want me to go away.  I have a right to post or not to post and if you don't like it don't read it.  The pretentious crap that you post in response to me is just too wearying.  I've tried to bring my expertise in drug development and safety as a service to the readers of this forum.  Apparently this is just too damn much for you.  You can suspend me if you want but this is just BS.  Why don't you make a positive contribution rather than being a thought police person.

I have no view on whether you stay or go. Just remember you aren't the only contributor here with a scientific or medical background.

Jeremy
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KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #902 on: April 27, 2020, 03:13:45 pm »

Coronavirus alert: Rare syndrome seen in UK children

BBC article highlighting a new rare but dangerous reaction in children that may be linked to coronavirus infection.

Another article linking the condition to Kawasaki disease.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/nhs-warns-of-rise-in-children-with-new-illness-that-may-be-linked-to-coronavirus

John Camp

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #903 on: April 27, 2020, 04:56:52 pm »

This is encouraging. A clip from an NYT story:

    [But] scientists at Oxford’s Jenner Institute had already proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against another coronavirus — were harmless to humans.
     That has enabled them to leap ahead to the next step and schedule tests involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month, hoping to show that their vaccine not only is safe, but also works.
     The Oxford scientists now say that with an emergency approval from regulators, the first few million doses of their vaccine could be available by September — at least several months ahead of any of the other announced efforts — if it proves to be effective.
     It is impossible to know at this stage whether any vaccine will work, or which will be the first to emerge as a success. But there is promising news about Oxford’s candidate.
     Scientists at the National Institutes of Health’s Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Montana last month inoculated six rhesus macaque monkeys with the Oxford vaccine. The animals were then exposed to heavy quantities of the virus that is causing the pandemic — exposure that had consistently sickened other monkeys in the lab. More than 28 days later all six were healthy, said Vincent Munster, the researcher who conducted the test.

Edit: Shortly after the first human volunteer subject was given the vaccine, some nutcase on social media began circulating a false report that she'd died, which she refuted with a fairly cheerful twitter message.






« Last Edit: April 27, 2020, 05:00:38 pm by John Camp »
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #904 on: April 28, 2020, 02:04:12 am »

Spoke last night with a friend whose mother is in a retirement home. They tested their employees and found a positive result for one of their temporary workers. I don't have more details, but good thing they found out, she could have infected quite a few residents there. According to the statistics, about half of the virus deaths in Canada occurred in long term centres. So the virus testing has to continue for foreseeable future and preferably should even escalate.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #905 on: April 28, 2020, 07:33:26 am »

Spoke last night with a friend whose mother is in a retirement home. They tested their employees and found a positive result for one of their temporary workers. I don't have more details, but good thing they found out, she could have infected quite a few residents there. According to the statistics, about half of the virus deaths in Canada occurred in long term centres. So the virus testing has to continue for foreseeable future and preferably should even escalate.

Seems incredible to me that testing of retirement home staff isn't already a priority. Maybe it is in some places, I don't really know. Four residents contracted the virus in the home where my mother lives, but no others so far. I don't know if they did contact tracing to trace and figure out how the virus was transmitted, they've been locked in since mid-March so it pretty much has to come in via staff, no one else is allowed onto the premises.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #906 on: April 28, 2020, 07:35:53 am »

The number of daily deaths for the last 2 days in the US seems to have dropped from its plateau of around 2000. I hope the trend continues.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #907 on: April 28, 2020, 08:11:04 am »

The number of daily deaths for the last 2 days in the US seems to have dropped from its plateau of around 2000. I hope the trend continues.
May 4th is getting close.  :)

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #908 on: April 28, 2020, 09:08:06 am »

The number of daily deaths for the last 2 days in the US seems to have dropped from its plateau of around 2000. I hope the trend continues.

Yes, in Canada, USA and worldwide, the reported infection counts and deaths in the last 3 days have declined. However, some sources estimate that the real numbers are 10 times higher, and those numbers could be steady or even increasing.

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The actual number of coronavirus cases in the United States is likely significantly higher — as much 10 or even 20 times higher — than the tally of Covid-19 infections currently being reported, a former top federal health official said Tuesday.

“We’re probably diagnosing 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 infections, and that’s what some of the reliable analyses are now showing,” he said. If Gottlieb is correct, that would mean that there are between almost 8 million and 15.75 million Americans who already have contracted the coronavirus, or between 2.4% to 4.8% of the U.S. population.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-cases-are-likely-10-to-20-times-higher-in-us-than-reported-former-fda-chief-gottlieb-says.html
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PeterAit

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #909 on: April 28, 2020, 09:26:14 am »

Alan, for God's sake stop this ridiculous, pretentious "radio silence" nonsense. Like everyone else here, you post when you feel like it and don't post in between.

Jeremy

I see no need for an ad hominem attack on Alan. And some people here could really stand to practice some "radio silence."
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #910 on: April 28, 2020, 09:34:36 am »

OTOH, there might be a reason for caution wrt this virus, https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/494918-case-fatality-rates-rise-as-coronavirus-runs-deadly. One of the people quoted in the article Michael Osterholm was interviewed on the Joe Rogan podcast a few weeks ago, near the start of the pandemic. The article states that the fatality rate is increasing and urges caution for places (in the US) that may peak later than NY/NJ and others.
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #911 on: April 28, 2020, 12:03:46 pm »

I don't see Jeremy's post as an ad hominem attack. I don't think he has a problem with Alan saying what he wants, when he wants it but with the unnecessary use of "back to radio silence". All of us are doing exactly the same thing, posting whenever, without saying "back to radio silence". If you take this out of his posts they will lose no value or meaning.

Jeremy Roussak

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #912 on: April 28, 2020, 01:08:55 pm »

I see no need for an ad hominem attack on Alan. And some people here could really stand to practice some "radio silence."

1. I don't think you understand what an ad hominem attack is.
2. Very true. Very true indeed.

Jeremy
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #913 on: April 28, 2020, 01:40:51 pm »

German doctors posed naked to protest the lack of masks and other protective equipment.

Quote
The group says it got the nude photo idea from a doctor named Alain Colombie, a 61-year-old who posed naked to demand more PPE in France last month. Colombie wore an armband in the photos with the message “cannon fodder” written on it.
The group, which is composed largely of family doctors, is encouraging other health-care workers to send in their own photos to be added to the gallery.


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BobShaw

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #914 on: April 28, 2020, 07:12:40 pm »

The number of daily deaths for the last 2 days in the US seems to have dropped from its plateau of around 2000. I hope the trend continues.
2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #915 on: April 28, 2020, 07:59:20 pm »

2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment.

Bob, The governor of NY, based on tests they've done in NYC, estimates that 25% of New Yorkers have been exposed to the virus.  Considering there are 8 1/2 million New Yorkers, that means over 2.13 million.  So instead of 59k/198= 30% who died as you claim, it's more like 59k/2130k=2.6% that have died.  Until all the testing is done months from now, we're really not going to know just what the infection and death rates are. 

It may turn out that NYC like Sweden may be in better shape than the rest of the population.  They could be reaching herd immunity which will protect them for the next outbreak.  So it may turn out that it was better not shutting down sooner and for opening up quicker once shut down.  I think too many people are trying to make political points rather than letting the science and actual facts guide them. 

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #916 on: April 28, 2020, 09:54:57 pm »

2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment.

2470 USA deaths at the end of the day. The good thing is that the counts for Western Europe and Canada have been trending lower in the last few days.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #917 on: April 28, 2020, 10:19:51 pm »

2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment.

Damn. Sorry to hear that.
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BobShaw

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #918 on: April 28, 2020, 10:40:17 pm »

Bob, The governor of NY, based on tests they've done in NYC, estimates that 25% of New Yorkers have been exposed to the virus.  Considering there are 8 1/2 million New Yorkers, that means over 2.13 million.  So instead of 59k/198= 30% who died as you claim, it's more like 59k/2130k=2.6% that have died. 
Well, no, firstly, I am not claiming it, the world is from figures published by each country.
Secondly you can not die of Corona Virus unless you have been tested for Corona virus.
Even if everything you are saying is true, 2.6% is still about three times a good result.
But if you don't think that you have a problem that's fine.
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #919 on: April 29, 2020, 09:57:13 am »

In Portugal, today the average for the past 7 days is around 300 new cases; during this 3rd period of emergency, which will end May 2, that 7 days rolling average has dropped from around 600 to 300. We are getting ready for the slow and phased reopening next week.

In the last few days, after the ramp up in cases in elderly homes, the majority of the cases has appeared in hostels that shelter refugees.

Again, it makes me wonder: why have the competent authorities failed to anticipate the infection in such places, especially given that the population there is one of the groups at risk?
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