COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Klein]

As always, you're free to seek out as many opinions as you like. No one is stopping you.

I guess I didn't make my point clearly, Bob.  If we trust experts blindly as was suggested, then we go to a doctor, he tells us what to do, and then we do it.  No questions. But it doesn;t work that way.  You question the doctor's advice.  You wonder if he got it right.  So you go to a second doctor because you don't trust the expert's advice. Then, the second expert tells you to do something different. Now you're really screwed.  In the end, you listen to your wife, or a frriend, or heaven forbid, someone in the forums.  It's the same with markets.  One expert says it's going up, the other says its going down.  Climate change.  Covid 19. Diet. FIlm vs. digital.  Canon vs. Nikon.  Who's right? Who do you believe?  Who do you trust? Who really knows what they're talking about?

[hogloff]

I guess I didn't make my point clearly, Bob.  If we trust experts blindly as was suggested, then we go to a doctor, he tells us what to do, and then we do it.  No questions. But it doesn;t work that way.  You question the doctor's advice.  You wonder if he got it right.  So you go to a second doctor because you don't trust the expert's advice. Then, the second expert tells you to do something different. Now you're really screwed.  In the end, you listen to your wife, or a frriend, or heaven forbid, someone in the forums.  It's the same with markets.  One expert says it's going up, the other says its going down.  Climate change.  Covid 19. Diet. FIlm vs. digital.  Canon vs. Nikon.  Who's right? Who do you believe?  Who do you trust? Who really knows what they're talking about?

Alan, you've asked this question dozens of times. You seem to be alive and doing ok...so you must have followed someone's advice over the years. I personally trust my doctor's advice about my health much more than the kid at 7-11. I trust my machanics advice on my car much more than my bankers. I have no idea why you are so paranoid, but bottom line when shit happens, you have to trust someone and I always sway towards the experts in the field.

[Alan Klein]

This is not surprising at all.  Countries that took the right precautions early on have seen success.  The same thing is happening in Israel where they had an extreme lockdown and now hardly any cases and kids are back in school.  Israel has a mandatory quarantine on visitors as well.  the US could have done much better but people disregard public health measures.  Here is an instructive survey of epidemiologists in the US about activities they would or would not undertake over the next year:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html 

The poll was taken of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who look at the world from a parochial point of view  It is not a poll of the general public who might have very different opinions.  I'd like to see a poll taken among the tens of millions of people who lost their jobs.  How about asking a few economists what they thinks as well?

[Alan Klein]

Alan, you've asked this question dozens of times. You seem to be alive and doing ok...so you must have followed someone's advice over the years. I personally trust my doctor's advice about my health much more than the kid at 7-11. I trust my machanics advice on my car much more than my bankers. I have no idea why you are so paranoid, but bottom line when shit happens, you have to trust someone and I always sway towards the experts in the field.

I didn't say to get a second opinion about your car from your banker.  Your twisting my words.  The question is which of the experts within a field do you believe?  The Canon experts or the Nikon experts? The investment company that tells you the market is going up or the one that tells your it's going down? We all listen to advice from various sources.  We message that advice and use our own experiences and knowledge to discern what might be best for us.  There are many roads to follow.  No one has a monopoly on the truth or can divine the future.

[Robert Roaldi]

The poll was taken of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who look at the world from a parochial point of view  It is not a poll of the general public who might have very different opinions.  I'd like to see a poll taken among the tens of millions of people who lost their jobs.  How about asking a few economists what they thinks as well?

You're mixing apples and oranges.

If all the experts in a field, epidemiology say, agree on a set of best practices, that already represents the condensed opinions of thousands of people who make their living studying the stuff. But if you don't like the fact that they agree, if you think that's suspicious in itself, then no one can help you. Go watch all the youtube cranks you want. You should not confuse independence of thought with contrariness. When people independently study something, they often end up agreeing with others in their field. Sometimes the truth is just that.

That process has NOTHING to do with whether you want a second opinion about a specific health concern of your own. It also has nothing to do with being unemployed or which think tank economists work for. These are completely separate topics.

This latest discussion about that malaria drug has me completely baffled. From reading posts, it seems as if some people have some vested interest in wanting it to work. Why is that? Why does anyone care which drug works. The only important thing is to find drugs that DO work. Do you honestly think that researchers would keep the information from us if they found out it worked really well? Do you really believe there's a worldwide conspiracy to hide that. That's the equivalent of not believing the moon landing was real or that the earth really is flat.

Think for a minute, it would MORE difficult to fake a moon landing and keep it a secret than it is to actually fly to the moon.

Anyway, we've beaten this horse to death and beyond.

[Alan Klein]

You're mixing apples and oranges.

If all the experts in a field, epidemiology say, agree on a set of best practices, that already represents the condensed opinions of thousands of people who make their living studying the stuff. But if you don't like the fact that they agree, if you think that's suspicious in itself, then no one can help you. Go watch all the youtube cranks you want. You should not confuse independence of thought with contrariness. When people independently study something, they often end up agreeing with others in their field. Sometimes the truth is just that.

That process has NOTHING to do with whether you want a second opinion about a specific health concern of your own. It also has nothing to do with being unemployed or which think tank economists work for. These are completely separate topics.

This latest discussion about that malaria drug has me completely baffled. From reading posts, it seems as if some people have some vested interest in wanting it to work. Why is that? Why does anyone care which drug works. The only important thing is to find drugs that DO work. Do you honestly think that researchers would keep the information from us if they found out it worked really well? Do you really believe there's a worldwide conspiracy to hide that. That's the equivalent of not believing the moon landing was real or that the earth really is flat.

Think for a minute, it would MORE difficult to fake a moon landing and keep it a secret than it is to actually fly to the moon.

Anyway, we've beaten this horse to death and beyond.

Covid 19 is not just an medical issue.  It is also an economic issue.  Would you think we should just take a poll of expert economists as to what we should do to protect the economy?  Or would you want to also include medical experts who would be concerned with protecting the health of the country.  Both are important. The poll Alan G quoted only looked at one side of the issue.  That's not an informed poll. 

[Robert Roaldi]

Covid 19 is not just an medical issue.  It is also an economic issue.  Would you think we should just take a poll of expert economists as to what we should do to protect the economy?  Or would you want to also include medical experts who would be concerned with protecting the health of the country.  Both are important. The poll Alan G quoted only looked at one side of the issue.  That's not an informed poll.

Why do you keep repeating the same statements? There are medical issues. There are economic issues. There's virtually NO ONE who does not understand this. The authorities in place, the people you elect, have been making decisions about these things all along in real time. Some go this way, some go that way. When it's over, you'll be able to go back and study what they did and which plans worked out best. How many more times does this need to be said.

[Alan Klein]

Why do you keep repeating the same statements? There are medical issues. There are economic issues. There's virtually NO ONE who does not understand this. The authorities in place, the people you elect, have been making decisions about these things all along in real time. Some go this way, some go that way. When it's over, you'll be able to go back and study what they did and which plans worked out best. How many more times does this need to be said.

No one gave economic considerations any weight early on.  It was all medical.  So now, to use a biased poll favoring keeping the economy shut down this late in the game requires an opposing position.

[Ray]

This is not surprising at all.  Countries that took the right precautions early on have seen success.  The same thing is happening in Israel where they had an extreme lockdown and now hardly any cases and kids are back in school.  Israel has a mandatory quarantine on visitors as well.  the US could have done much better but people disregard public health measures.  Here is an instructive survey of epidemiologists in the US about activities they would or would not undertake over the next year:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html

Alan,
As I understand, New Zealand began its nationwide lock-down on March 23 after a rising number of daily Covid-19 cases. New York, the epicentre of the US outbreak, began lock-down measures a day earlier on the 22 March.

The US implemented a restriction on foreign travelers who had been in China during the previous 2 weeks, on February 2.

The New Zealand Government placed entry restrictions on foreign nationals travelling from, or transiting through, mainland China, on February 3, a day later than the US.

Perhaps New Zealanders are just better-behaved than Americans.   

[faberryman]

No one gave economic considerations any weight early on.  It was all medical.  So now, to use a biased poll favoring keeping the economy shut down this late in the game requires an opposing position.

There is no mention in the article about keeping the economy shut down. Those polled were asked how they would personally behave in twenty different social circumstances now that the economy is opening up. One thing that is very helpful in determining whether a scientific article is true or not is actually reading it.

[Ray]

If all the experts in a field, epidemiology say, agree on a set of best practices, that already represents the condensed opinions of thousands of people who make their living studying the stuff.

That would be a very strange situation, Robert, all the experts in a particular field agreeing. What sort of science would that be? Also, how could a layman be certain that there really was such a consensus? Because a journalist says so, or because one particular expert says so, in order to justify or add weight to his recommendation or authority?

[Alan Klein]

Alan,
As I understand, New Zealand began its nationwide lock-down on March 23 after a rising number of daily Covid-19 cases. New York, the epicentre of the US outbreak, began lock-down measures a day earlier on the 22 March.

The US implemented a restriction on foreign travelers who had been in China during the previous 2 weeks, on February 2.

The New Zealand Government placed entry restrictions on foreign nationals travelling from, or transiting through, mainland China, on February 3, a day later than the US.

Perhaps New Zealanders are just better-behaved than Americans.   

Using the 2017 population of 4.794 million people, the population density of New Zealand is approximately 46 people per square mile (18 people per square kilometer) which ranks New Zealand 166th in the world in terms of population density.

By comparison, about 1 in every 38 people living in the United States resides in New York City. New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile. There are 8 1/2 million New Yorkers, 60% more than the entire country of New Zealand.  New Jersey, which also had a very high infection rate, has the highest population density of all 50 states. In 2018, the population density of New Jersey stood at 1,211.3 residents per square mile of land area.  Many of its residents, my neighbors,  work in NYC daily and like plague rats of the Middle Ages took the virus back to NJ to spread it around. 

[Paulo Bizarro]

No one gave economic considerations any weight early on.  It was all medical.  So now, to use a biased poll favoring keeping the economy shut down this late in the game requires an opposing position.

But they did. Several countries that implemented the lockdown later (say Spain, Italy, France, UK,Sweden) did so on account of concerns for the rise in unemployemnt, deficit, etc. They have suffered more in terms of deaths per million, and will end up facing also the economic crisis.

Other countries decided to implement a lockdown early, concurrent with some measures to mitigate the economic impact (companies that could use lay off schemes, postponing taxes, injecting money tohelp, etc). Such countries will also face the economic crisis, but haf fewer deaths, so populations are less traumatized. Which is good for economy.

[Alan Klein]

There is no mention in the article about keeping the economy shut down. Those polled were asked how they would personally behave in twenty different social circumstances now that the economy is opening up. One thing that is very helpful in determining whether a scientific article is true or not is actually reading it.

The poster used a slanted poll to argue for keeping the country shut down.  While the epidemiologists were voting what they believed, the poll is biased because it's intent is to present only one side of the issue.  I'll let readers here decide whether it was biased or not.  I trust their judgment.   

[Alan Klein]

But they did. Several countries that implemented the lockdown later (say Spain, Italy, France, UK,Sweden) did so on account of concerns for the rise in unemployemnt, deficit, etc. They have suffered more in terms of deaths per million, and will end up facing also the economic crisis.

Other countries decided to implement a lockdown early, concurrent with some measures to mitigate the economic impact (companies that could use lay off schemes, postponing taxes, injecting money tohelp, etc). Such countries will also face the economic crisis, but haf fewer deaths, so populations are less traumatized. Which is good for economy.

The poll's presentation just yesterday argued to continue the lockdown.  You're arguing what happened months ago.  Additionally, the poll and discussion was what American  doctors thought. 

[Robert Roaldi]

No one gave economic considerations any weight early on.

Nonsense. Everyone gave thought to economic considerations. That's how we ended up with companies implementing work-at-home, curbside pickup, continued access to grocery stores, and yes some places were closed. The economy was NEVER shut down, lots of people continued to work.

You deliberately mischaracterize everything. Please stop.

[Ray]

Using the 2017 population of 4.794 million people, the population density of New Zealand is approximately 46 people per square mile (18 people per square kilometer) which ranks New Zealand 166th in the world in terms of population density.

By comparison, about 1 in every 38 people living in the United States resides in New York City. New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile. There are 8 1/2 million New Yorkers, 60% more than the entire country of New Zealand.  New Jersey, which also had a very high infection rate, has the highest population density of all 50 states. In 2018, the population density of New Jersey stood at 1,211.3 residents per square mile of land area.  Many of its residents, my neighbors,  work in NYC daily and like plague rats of the Middle Ages took the virus back to NJ to spread it around. 

Yes. Population density probably has a large effect on the spread of the virus. It's not just good behaviour. 

[Alan Klein]

Nonsense. Everyone gave thought to economic considerations. That's how we ended up with companies implementing work-at-home, curbside pickup, continued access to grocery stores, and yes some places were closed. The economy was NEVER shut down, lots of people continued to work.

You deliberately mischaracterize everything. Please stop.

Maybe in Canada where you live.  But not here.  Everyone was thinking about getting infected.  No one really thought about the extreme damage it would do to the economy.  The boosters of shutdown are to blame for much of the economic hardships.  Trump complained breifly, then went along with it.  You're trying to distract from their responsibility of that position.  That's kind but without foundation. 

[Robert Roaldi]

That would be a very strange situation, Robert, all the experts in a particular field agreeing. What sort of science would that be? Also, how could a layman be certain that there really was such a consensus? Because a journalist says so, or because one particular expert says so, in order to justify or add weight to his recommendation or authority?

Since when does best practices advice imply unanimous agreement. I don't know what you're talking about.

[faberryman]

The poster used a slanted poll to argue for keeping the country shut down.

Pure unadulterated bullshit. Here is what the poster said:

"This is not surprising at all.  Countries that took the right precautions early on have seen success.  The same thing is happening in Israel where they had an extreme lockdown and now hardly any cases and kids are back in school.  Israel has a mandatory quarantine on visitors as well.  the US could have done much better but people disregard public health measures.  Here is an instructive survey of epidemiologists in the US about activities they would or would not undertake over the next year:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html"

Absolutely nothing, zilch, nada about keeping the country shut down.

So now we are at a place where not only do you not read the links in posts, you don't read the posts themselves.