Poll

Your prediction, not your vote.

Clinton
- 9 (69.2%)
Trump
- 4 (30.8%)
Hung college
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13


Pages: 1 ... 7 8 [9] 10 11 ... 20   Go Down

Author Topic: Election predictions  (Read 80019 times)

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18208
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #160 on: November 11, 2016, 11:12:41 am »

...BUT, its still difficult to ignore how close the vote was...

Perhaps. But look at it how close it was from this angle: the whole weight of the System, Da Man, establishment, elite, pundits, media, Hollywood, CIA, generals, economists, Nobel prize winners, diplomats, former presidents, even his own party, everyone and his mother-in-law, a kitchen sink too, ganged up against one candidate. The newspapers which in 100 years never endorsed a Democratic candidate, changed sides. Published naked pictures of the candidate's wife. Pulled out and dusted off 15-20 year old tapes and tax returns. Whipped the public into a frenzy by demonizing him via grossly twisted interpretations of what he said. And yet he came as close as 0.2% of the popular vote. Never mind that he got the majority of the popular vote in the majority of states.

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #161 on: November 11, 2016, 11:14:00 am »

We don't. Chris often posts in the Critique or Landscape sections of the forum. You might try to venture beyond the Coffee Corner from time to time, you know ;)

P.S. The other forums is where you make friends. The Coffee Corner is where you come to lose them ;)
  That's true.  I was nervous I might be losing you and had to pull back at one point. :)

N80

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 621
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #162 on: November 11, 2016, 11:16:56 am »


P.S. The other forums is where you make friends. The Coffee Corner is where you come to lose them ;)

I enjoy discourse with my flesh and blood liberal friends as well as my virtual liberal acquaintances (I'm new here) even when I go home licking a few wounds or rarely inflicting a wound or two on them. I think even heated discourse with those who think differently from us is far more valuable than cordial discourse with those with whom we always agree.
Logged
George

"What is truth?" Pontius  Pilate

Rob C

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 25125
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #163 on: November 11, 2016, 11:17:37 am »

Trump election and Brexit are often compared. So, let's look at the popular vote role in both. In Brexit, the popular vote won with a 4% difference. Here, it "won" (coincidentally and as a byproduct) with a 0.2% difference. In Brexit, the left is crying foul, claiming the popular vote is dangerous and should be ignored. Here, the left is glorifying it and wants the election results overturned. Go figure. In other words, this system or that system, whatever system, who cares, as long as it delivers what I like. And if it doesn't, then we will change the system or vote again and again until it does. News flash: you can surely vote again...in four years.


Woah! Your nags are running wild.

In Brexit, both left and right were split in both directions: leave or remain.

The leave victory came because both gullible left and right plus the rabid head-in-sand-ukippers believed those confessed lies that their leave proponents told.

If there's anything more unedifying than the movement to leave, it's the sight of the current leavers in office now pretending to be absolutely convinced that they must continue to fib (but now in the other direction) and embrace and climb aboard the quit machine. The honorable thing for the govt. to do would have been to resign. Then, on a ticket of 'stay' they could have faced the electorate with or without a true mandate depending on the result of the election.

They are, I'm afraid, all chickenshit.

Rob C

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #164 on: November 11, 2016, 11:23:31 am »

Rob, you of course know putting honorable and politician in the same sentence is folly. 
Question.  How do you when a politician is lying?
Answer: When their lips are moving.

N80

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 621
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #165 on: November 11, 2016, 11:25:23 am »

Perhaps. But look at it how close it was from this angle: the whole weight of the System, Da Man, establishment, elite, pundits, media, Hollywood, CIA, generals, economists, Nobel prize winners, diplomats, former presidents, even his own party, everyone and his mother-in-law, a kitchen sink too, ganged up against one candidate. The newspapers which in 100 years never endorsed a Democratic candidate, changed sides. Published naked pictures of the candidate's wife. Pulled out and dusted off 15-20 year old tapes and tax returns. Whipped the public into a frenzy by demonizing him via grossly twisted interpretations of what he said. And yet he came as close as 0.2% of the popular vote. Never mind that he got the majority of the popular vote in the majority of states.

Correct. THAT is the take home message.

That and the ironies I have mentioned before. "Trump is a hateful bigot" vs " Trump supporters (nearly half a nation) are gun toting, bible thumping, mouth breathing, incestuous misogynistic racists."

I often don't think the left understands how RACIST playing the race card is. It is inherently racist. It is deeply hurtful. It is potential life altering in a harmful way. And still, it is the Trump crowd that is still portrayed as hateful, racist and dangerous even as leftists riot and destroy private property.

The left, with the aid of the media and the elites always claim the high ground. All of it. But they don't live there. Any more than the right does.

Pay attention to the epic, national irony. Hypocrisy might be the more accurate word. But irony says it better.
Logged
George

"What is truth?" Pontius  Pilate

N80

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 621
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #166 on: November 11, 2016, 11:33:13 am »


The leave victory came because both gullible left and right plus the rabid head-in-sand-ukippers believed those confessed lies that their leave proponents told.

The truth is elusive, no? But here is one truth. Trump lies a lot. Clinton lies a lot. Here is another truth: The liberal media gave HRC a perpetual get-out-of-jail-free card in regard to her lying. They nailed Trump to the wall for his.

I watched a 20 minute montage of HRC lying in public about NAFTA, gay marriage and many other topics. No fact checkes refutes her claims. She refuted them all herself in clear, context appropriate statements she made about herself and her positions on these issues through the years, often denying she'd said these things even as she was quoted on them.

HRC was NEVER a good candidate for president. Her only asset was that she was not DJT. Bernie Sanders would have killed Trump in the election. The Dems have only themselves to blame. The GOP has only Trump to thank.

(Again, to clarify, I despise both Trump and the GOP.)
Logged
George

"What is truth?" Pontius  Pilate

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #167 on: November 11, 2016, 11:51:31 am »

Perhaps. But look at it how close it was from this angle: the whole weight of the System, Da Man, establishment, elite, pundits, media, Hollywood, CIA, generals, economists, Nobel prize winners, diplomats, former presidents, even his own party, everyone and his mother-in-law, a kitchen sink too, ganged up against one candidate. The newspapers which in 100 years never endorsed a Democratic candidate, changed sides. Published naked pictures of the candidate's wife. Pulled out and dusted off 15-20 year old tapes and tax returns. Whipped the public into a frenzy by demonizing him via grossly twisted interpretations of what he said. And yet he came as close as 0.2% of the popular vote. Never mind that he got the majority of the popular vote in the majority of states.

It was actually simple in a way.  The American people are smarter than most people thought.  They read through all the BS they've been handed for years from all sides and warmed up to the only guy who heard their concerns and wanted to help them.  It really doesn't matter exactly what he does as long as whatever it is is done with concern for these people.  If he does that, he will get their support again in 2020.  Unless the Democrats get away from their elite views,  their race baiting and wedge issues, and other parochial viewpoints and get a candidate that can show honest concern to the average American who is suffering, they don't have a chance.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 11:55:39 am by Alan Klein »
Logged

Jeremy Roussak

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 9263
    • site
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #168 on: November 11, 2016, 12:14:16 pm »

P.S. The other forums is where you make friends. The Coffee Corner is where you come to lose them ;)

Come on, Slobodan. Many of us are sufficiently skilled to lose friends in other parts of the forum too.

Jeremy
Logged

myotis

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 290
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #169 on: November 11, 2016, 12:24:31 pm »

This same argument goes on every four years even if the popular vote comports with the electoral vote.  Let's say the popular vote was 51% and 49%.  The losers always say that the winner does not have a mandate because they 49% is so close to half.  Therefore the winner should consider what the losers want.  Of course the winner says, a win is a win, and we intend to push the winner's agenda.  Well that's how it works. 

Keep in mind that the Electoral percentage has not been talked about.  It will probably come out roughly 55% for Trump vs. 45% Clinton.  (300 Trump to 240 Clinton Electoral votes). So if you consider the electoral vote, you may actually get more comfort in knowing that a larger majority did select Trump from a Federal, constitutional and electoral perspective.  Does 55% to 45% make you feel better?

I don't think anyone can argue they don't have a mandate, because that is how the system works, you can argue for changing the system, but not that there is no mandate.  So I have no issue at all with Trump being elected.

I just have a problem with the idea that this necessarily reflects the will of the people when more people preferred someone other than Trump (not just those that voted Clinton, but also those that voted for other candidates and those who didn't vote), but this is more widespread an issue than this election e.g. about a quarter of the UK population voted for Brexit.

The issue just seems more obvious, when you have a close result, as it adds even more uncertainty over what "the people" want.

As to the 55% to 45%, making me feel better, well not really as I don't need to feel better about Trump being elected, that wasn't the point of my post.

But I suspect I am being over sensitive about this.

Cheers,

Graham





Logged

James Clark

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2347
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #170 on: November 11, 2016, 12:27:39 pm »

I enjoy discourse with my flesh and blood liberal friends as well as my virtual liberal acquaintances (I'm new here) even when I go home licking a few wounds or rarely inflicting a wound or two on them. I think even heated discourse with those who think differently from us is far more valuable than cordial discourse with those with whom we always agree.

Traveling today so I sadly can't contribute much to the conversion, but wanted to acknowledge and agree with this 100%. Y'all have fun ;)

Logged

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18208
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #171 on: November 11, 2016, 12:41:43 pm »

...  inflicting a wound or two on them..

Careful with that...we have friends here who take things quite literally, so don't be surprised if you are soon labeled as a "dangerous, violent predator."  :D

myotis

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 290
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #172 on: November 11, 2016, 12:54:41 pm »

Perhaps. But look at it how close it was from this angle: the whole weight of the System, Da Man, establishment, elite, pundits, media, Hollywood, CIA, generals, economists, Nobel prize winners, diplomats, former presidents, even his own party, everyone and his mother-in-law, a kitchen sink too, ganged up against one candidate. The newspapers which in 100 years never endorsed a Democratic candidate, changed sides. Published naked pictures of the candidate's wife. Pulled out and dusted off 15-20 year old tapes and tax returns. Whipped the public into a frenzy by demonizing him via grossly twisted interpretations of what he said. And yet he came as close as 0.2% of the popular vote. Never mind that he got the majority of the popular vote in the majority of states.

I'm not sure of the relevance of this as I'm not questioning his mandate to become President. I think he did incredibly well to win, and given the things against him it's not surprising the vote was close.

Cheers,
Graham
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #173 on: November 11, 2016, 02:45:17 pm »

I'm curious about those who live in a Parliamentary country.  The Prime Ministers get a much smaller percent of the total popular vote than in the US but becomes leader with the support of people who voted for someone else.  Yet don't you accept your leader regardless of his or her tiny popular vote?

  As an aside, do you know that Bill Clinton became President in 1992 with only 43% of the popular vote (There was a major third party candidates then.)   Yet he ruled as if he had a mandate.  Well he did. He had  a majority of the electoral vote.

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18208
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #174 on: November 11, 2016, 02:53:26 pm »

The best title ever:

Classes Being Canceled Because Trump Won Is Why Trump Won

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/442083/donald-trump-school-closing-2016

Chairman Bill

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3352
    • flickr page
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #175 on: November 11, 2016, 02:57:21 pm »

I've just seen a video clip of Mike Pence explaining how evolution is 'just a theory'. So much weapons grade willful ignorance & stupidity is breathtaking. This is a man who is allowed out on his own, without a nurse to hold his hand. Utterly amazing. Suddenly Donald Trump doesn't seem so bad, and you'd better all hope that he survives the next four years, because if Pence gets to the top job, you're really screwed.

pegelli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1664
    • http://pegelli.smugmug.com/
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #176 on: November 11, 2016, 03:10:29 pm »

I'm curious about those who live in a Parliamentary country.  The Prime Ministers get a much smaller percent of the total popular vote than in the US but becomes leader with the support of people who voted for someone else.  Yet don't you accept your leader regardless of his or her tiny popular vote?
I think most prime ministers in a parliamentary country have much less power then the president of the US.
Also if there are more then 2 parties he needs to make a coalition with other parties and develop a government program in which something of all these parties comes back (otherwise they won't join his coalition). So it's more a matter of accepting a complete (multi party) government vs. just accepting one man in charge. Examples I'm thinking of here are Belgium and the Netherlands (two countries I have lived in).
I'm not saying this is better or worse then the US system, but I'm trying to answer your question of how the people accept the outcome of the elections and selection of the Prime Minister and his government, despite the fact that the PM (or his party) has a popular vote significantly below 50%
Logged
pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #177 on: November 11, 2016, 03:10:46 pm »

I've just seen a video clip of Mike Pence explaining how evolution is 'just a theory'. So much weapons grade willful ignorance & stupidity is breathtaking. This is a man who is allowed out on his own, without a nurse to hold his hand. Utterly amazing. Suddenly Donald Trump doesn't seem so bad, and you'd better all hope that he survives the next four years, because if Pence gets to the top job, you're really screwed.
This kind of thinking is why Trump won.  You laugh at people's core beliefs.  You don't get it.  Oh well. 

pegelli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1664
    • http://pegelli.smugmug.com/
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #178 on: November 11, 2016, 03:17:05 pm »

I've just seen a video clip of Mike Pence explaining how evolution is 'just a theory'. So much weapons grade willful ignorance & stupidity is breathtaking. This is a man who is allowed out on his own, without a nurse to hold his hand. Utterly amazing. Suddenly Donald Trump doesn't seem so bad, and you'd better all hope that he survives the next four years, because if Pence gets to the top job, you're really screwed.
I have no problem with Pence stating this as his belief, the first amendment makes sure he can and for me that's even more important then the second amendment. I'm free to disagree with him (which I do) and that's enough for me.

However I hope that Trump/Pence will fight as hard to uphold this first amendment (and article 6) as forcefully as they hold up the second amendment and not let these religious beliefs penetrate in the public schooling and governmental policy.
Logged
pieter, aka pegelli

Rob C

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 25125
Re: Election predictions
« Reply #179 on: November 11, 2016, 03:17:11 pm »

Come on, Slobodan. Many of us are sufficiently skilled to lose friends in other parts of the forum too.

Jeremy

You see? There we go again: underestimating the voter! But as PTB said, and I quote:

“Nobody ever lost a dollar by underestimating the taste of the American public.”
― P.T. Barnum

That Mr Barnum is so handy: he covers almost everything, including things he doesn't cover at all.

Were I an American and a voter, I'd think this:

Mrs Clinton walks about with her mouth wide open, and has this nervous twitch that makes her raise her arm and point at nothing in particular. As if that were not enough, she has this messianic arm-spreading complex too, where she thinks she's standing on the top of a hill in Rio. She might, instead, have seen Titanic. Either way, she signals anything but a healthy state of mind. There's every chance that she may not be allowed out there in public for much longer, so perhaps better to choose somebody else.

Mr Trump has this interesting habit of, allegedly, creating situations that will aid his wife during her divorce. Obviously, then, this man does not learn from experience. As bad, for him, will he still have his thatch at the end of his tenure (of office, of course)? Clearly, there's not actually much more that I can think to say about him, so I guess I'd better just not vote at all. There goes another lost opportunity.

How much more simple life as a self-exiled Brit!

Rob
« Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 09:44:46 am by Rob C »
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 7 8 [9] 10 11 ... 20   Go Up