After worrying about it for a while, I went out Friday and bought an Epson 3800, and I have to say that the key factor in the decision is that it'll be easier and cheaper to throw away when better printers come along.
I considered all the three major competitors -- the Canon and the HP and the Epson. Both the Canon and the HP, while in some aspects more desirable than the Epson, seem to be having some long-term mechanical problems that Epson has solved, for no other reason (I suspect) than Epson's longer experience with this type of machine.
The Canon I ruled out fairly early-on. I understand the IQ is brilliant, but the documentation in both set-up and problem-solving seems so poor, and I have so little patience with this kind of thing, that I simply didn't want to deal with it. Also, there's this long overhang in publishing the color-stability estimates. What's up with that?
The HP was my first choice for a long time, but it's been having so many problems showing up lately, like the pizza-wheel thing, that I decided that for $4,000, I'd wait until the next iteration -- especially since I could get a 3800 for a little more than $1,000. I am replacing a 2200, so I also have some experience with Epsons, and the biggest problem with Epsons, head clogging, is something I'm familiar with and can deal with. Also, I went to a local pro photo store, where they have a commercial photo-printing business, and talked to a guy there who prints all day, and he said that in his opinion, the Epson prints were absolutely as good as either the Canon or the HP.
I really wanted a 24-inch printer, though. I don't know exactly why, but that size appeals to me -- 24x36 as opposed to 16x24.
Crap. I hate to make these kinds of compromises. But I think printers are where cameras were about four years ago, when menus were awkward and weird things like banding kept cropping up. Now, the camera hardware/software technology is shaking out, and I think probably the next iteration of printers will be a big step forward in usability and reliability. Maybe Canon will actually hire a guy who knows how to write a manual, and HP will fix its paper handling, and Epson will have bigger printers that don't need a black-ink change...By that time, I'll have gotten a couple years out of the 3800, and can take it down to recycling without feeling too bad about it.
JC