Photoshop CC & Lightroom 5 for €9.99 per month...12 month contract.

[Isaac]

In other words, when you can no longer do that export from PS CC, because your subscription has run out...

Knowing your subscription was going to run out, you wouldn't export everything from PS CC because... ?

Knowing your subscription would run out, you wouldn't habitually export work you considered complete because... ?

It puzzles me simply because I do export unsharpened tiff + full size jpeg + web size jpeg + watermarked web size jpeg -- and it seems really really easy.

[Schewe]

Does this send a message?

It says that Adobe, which closed at 55.60/share on Fri (and had an intraday high of 56.10) is just off the 52 week high of 57.99 (the 52 week trading range was 34.94-57.99). So, that's why some insiders decided to take some profits (note the insiders still hold a lot of shares). Heck I sold several hundred shares at near the 52 week high...(note these are shares I bought at an effective price/share of about 26/share in 2011 for a tidy profit).

Reading tea leaves requires knowing something about tea. Insider trading is only one factor to look at when evaluating stock (and not a particularly good one unless you see a ton of sales or buys).

Also note that for every sale, somebody was a buyer...so there were plenty of buyers in line to buy those shares but it did tend to suppress the price/share a bit. Personally, I would not be a buyer right now...but some investors were...

Adobe's 4th quarter results are due Dec 12th...so we'll have more info to digest then.

[Simon Garrett]

Knowing your subscription was going to run out, you wouldn't export everything from PS CC because... ?

Knowing your subscription would run out, you wouldn't habitually export work you considered complete because... ?

It puzzles me simply because I do export unsharpened tiff + full size jpeg + web size jpeg + watermarked web size jpeg -- and it seems really really easy.

Yes I agree with you.  But look back at the posts asking for an "end solution", and I was trying to probe what they meant.  

What I personally find more worrying is watching the Adobe CC forum at http://forums.adobe.com/community/creative_cloud?view=discussions.  There seem to be a lot of people claiming that their subscriptions get blocked (and they are locked out of their software) for no fault of their own, apparently.  For example the system won't let them change their credit card (after they've changed their card because of Adobe's security breach).  Or there is some other payment glitch caused at the Adobe side.  I've certainly experienced Adobe account pages that perpetually respond "There seems to be a fault at our end.  Try again later" (though I've not been locked out of my software yet).  It would appear that Adobe's billing and payment systems are a bit flakey, which is worrying if your continued use of software depends on them.  

I also reckon that a tied rental income reduces the incentive on Adobe to innovate.  I've taken out the subscription offer because of the limited time of availability, but frankly Photoshop CC has little in it of use to me that wasn't in my Photoshop CS5.  Unless Adobe provide a significant level of enhancement over the next year, I may not renew my subscription in a year's time. 

[Doyle Yoder]

Knowing your subscription was going to run out, you wouldn't export everything from PS CC because... ?

Knowing your subscription would run out, you wouldn't habitually export work you considered complete because... ?

It puzzles me simply because I do export unsharpened tiff + full size jpeg + web size jpeg + watermarked web size jpeg -- and it seems really really easy.

I can certainly agree when it comes to PSCC at present. But Indesign is a much bigger issue.

[Isaac]

Obviously, without vendor independent formats you're locked-in to whatever the vendor wants to do.

[Isaac]

But look back at the posts asking for an "end solution", and I was trying to probe what they meant.

I think you'll find that all they really meant was that they don't want subscription :-)

I also reckon that a tied rental income reduces the incentive on Adobe to innovate. ... Unless Adobe provide a significant level of enhancement over the next year, I may not renew my subscription in a year's time.

Given that you'll consider stopping payment in ~half the previous upgrade period, and actually could cancel before then, it seems the incentive has become more immediate.

[Simon Garrett]

Given that you'll consider stopping payment in ~half the previous upgrade period, and actually could cancel before then, it seems the incentive has become more immediate.

Oh, to think that Adobe will be shaking with fear, rushing out new enhancements just becasue I might cancel my subscription! 

Nice thought, but somehow I reckon not.  Inertia keeps people subscribing - you have to make a conscious decision to cancel.  But with the old (perpetual licence) model, you have to make a conscious decision to buy an upgrade, and the supplier has to do something to motivate people to make that decision. 

In a year's time, I rather suspect that Photoshop CC will have changed little if at all.  But will I have the courage of my convictions to cancel my subscription - cast myself adrift?  Or will I just hang in there, it's only $10 a month, in the hope that something turns up to make it worth while?  I'm sure Adobe calculate that I'll hang in there (assuming everything hangs on my personal decision, that is!)

That's why I'm expecting Adobe's rate of innovation to slow down.  Their stock price is hardly putting pressure on them.  But it rarely does, until it's too late. 

[Isaac]

Those expectations seem no more than pointless speculation to me, so I'll leave you to it.

[Isaac]

Does this send a message?
...
We may know more by the middle of this month.

"Adobe exited Q4 with 1 million 439 thousand paid Creative Cloud subscriptions, an increase of 402 thousand when compared to the number of subscriptions as of the end of Q3 fiscal year 2013, and enterprise adoption of Creative Cloud was stronger than expected."

http://www.adobe.com/aboutadobe/pressroom/pressreleases/pdfs/201312/Q413Earnings.pdf

[kaelaria]

Yep - they did good by the investors for sure! http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-57615538-92/adobe-stock-hits-all-time-high-on-subscription-shift/

[chez]

Yep - they did good by the investors for sure! http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-57615538-92/adobe-stock-hits-all-time-high-on-subscription-shift/

Those are pretty good numbers. Looks like Adobe won't be changing their minds regarding CC anytime soon. So far I am pleased with my subscription.

[kaelaria]

Same here

[craig forrest]

Have folks seen this?

Adobe profit slides as product sales decline

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/adobe-profit-slides-as-product-sales-decline-2013-12-12-16485312

[kaelaria]

Expected,normal and a good thing long term. Of course immediate profit numbers are going to be obliterated when they have gone to a long game subscription. Investors understand that and also know its going to keep getting better faster. Stock is doing great after the report came out and for good reason they are setup for much better long term profits.http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-57615538-92/adobe-stock-hits-all-time-high-on-subscription-shift/

[john beardsworth]

Have folks seen this?

Adobe profit slides as product sales decline

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/adobe-profit-slides-as-product-sales-decline-2013-12-12-16485312

Adobe have always said they will take a hit from lost product sales while they force customers to subscribe. Investors currently accept their projections that revenues will recover by 2015 or so , and they factor in less risk and the option to cut cost if revenues fall short.

[chez]

Have folks seen this?

Adobe profit slides as product sales decline

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/adobe-profit-slides-as-product-sales-decline-2013-12-12-16485312

That's blatantly obvious. Instead of people purchasing CS7 upgrades at say $250 a pop, they are now paying $10/month...but that monthly payment will be revenue every month, every year without spikes.

[BernardLanguillier]

That's blatantly obvious. Instead of people purchasing CS7 upgrades at say $250 a pop, they are now paying $10/month...but that monthly payment will be revenue every month, every year without spikes.

I believe that for many, the drop is more from a full suite upgrade at 1,000 US$+ every 18 months to 10 US$ per month. I will personally be spending 5 times less on Adobe products.

Those who were not upgrading that often have typically not bought into the subscription model at all.

So Adobe will have to milk corporate customers big way to recover the revenue lost from independant users... and the big spenders typically have purchasing watchdogs who will engage in tough negotiations with Adobe... so that probably won't work as well as planned either.

I understand that investors are still waiting... but that is no garantee that the Adode projections are right, only that we cannot demonstrate yet that they may be wrong.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Isaac]

no garantee that the Adode projections are right, only that we cannot demonstrate yet that they may be wrong.

We can also demonstrate that the doomsday predictions made in this forum have repeatedly been wrong.

I'm still hopeful that most of us can come to agree the future hasn't happened yet; or alternatively drift into a discussion of block time :-)

[Jeremy Roussak]

I'm still hopeful that most of us can come to agree the future hasn't happened yet

Some of it has by now.

Jeremy

[BernardLanguillier]

We can also demonstrate that the doomsday predictions made in this forum have repeatedly been wrong.

What predictions are you referring to?

The ones I am aware of were:
- Impact on Adobe business: we can see this already,
- Initial pricing out of line: Adobe has confirmed this by proposing several rounds of discount, the endless extension being a clear proof that even that has not succeeded to bring on board as many customers as tactically expected,
- Low adoption of the subscription model among independent users: this is IMHO a reality.

In my view, those predictions, that even a 15 years old could have made, have proven absolutely correct.

As a reminder, this is coming from a PS/BR/LR CC customer.

Cheers,
Bernard