In my very limited understanding, the problem is not likely to be reduction in petroleum products but the end of cheap fuel, and the ripple of that escalating cost throughout the global economy, creating uncertainty about future profitability (aka credit for new large-scale projects).
Agreed, but increased cost amounts to a different path of reaching about the same result – fuel cost that many cannot afford. I guess a key difference would be hysteria following a general agreement of peak oil production being reached or past.
Of course, no one knows if or when peak oil will occur. Differing theories continue to push the timeline back, and advancing capabilities help to economically produce more crude from existing sites.
But the continual increase in cost will have nearly the same effect on use as will a reduction in availability. For instance, look at the pattern of oil use around 2008, when cost reached nearly $150 per barrel of crude. As oil cost increased, the cost of food increased right along with it, as did the cost of nearly everything else. It won’t require an announcement that peak oil capacity has occurred to cause prices to double that amount or more. All that would be required is the perception of significant damage to the distribution chain or major political unrest to cause prices to double almost overnight. And then there is trhe issue of widespread financial speculation on crude. That too will happen again.
I'm coming to the realization that I will probably live to experience these events.
I dunno your age but both of these issues are already causing problems, which escalate into some major challenges over the next couple of decades. IMO, of course.