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Author Topic: Next generation MF sensors  (Read 22741 times)

stevesanacore

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Next generation MF sensors
« Reply #40 on: October 22, 2009, 11:32:58 am »

Quote from: BJL
Or will the rising tide of higher end 35mm format continue to squeeze MF, slowing ever more its ability to fund technological progress? After all, look how long MF lagged in getting auto-focus, in which it is still stuck at a single AF point!

If only the price for these cameras would fall fast enough, I think they would sell more than enough to cover their costs. Many professional photographers would love to buy a MF system but I think the prices are just out of line with the return on investment. I personally don't see the need for high ISO on a MF camera at all. But live view on a hi-res LCD and on a tethered computer is mandatory for me as all my clients expect it.
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BJL

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« Reply #41 on: October 22, 2009, 12:33:03 pm »

Quote from: stevesanacore
If only the price for these cameras would fall fast enough, I think they would sell more than enough to cover their costs.

If you mean through cutting retail prices by lowering margins: if it were that simple, MF makers would have figured it out a long time ago; their managers are not all brain dead, despite some forum cynicism.

If you mean cutting priced through cutting costs, that is also an utterly obvious goal ... I have to conclude that it is not at all easy to reduce the costs of these huge sensors, for reason that have been discussed a great deal.

By the way, there is no evidence that changing to CMOS sensors would reduce costs significantly; that is a misunderstanding of cost advantages that only apply to small, cheap "camera on a chip" CMOS sensor modules for phones, web-cams, and such. Note for example that Dalsa offers custom CMOS sensors, including the ability to make huge ones, and so did Kodak before discontinuing its CMOS division, yet no MF maker has taken that option.
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ThierryH

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« Reply #42 on: October 22, 2009, 02:36:43 pm »

If one would know the exact correlation between price drop and increase in sales, in any field, there would be a lot of billionaires.

Thierry

Quote from: BJL
If you mean through cutting retail prices by lowering margins: if it were that simple, MF makers would have figured it out a long time ago; their managers are not all brain dead, despite some forum cynicism.
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Slough

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Next generation MF sensors
« Reply #43 on: October 22, 2009, 02:45:12 pm »

Quote from: stevesanacore
If only the price for these cameras would fall fast enough, I think they would sell more than enough to cover their costs. Many professional photographers would love to buy a MF system but I think the prices are just out of line with the return on investment. I personally don't see the need for high ISO on a MF camera at all. But live view on a hi-res LCD and on a tethered computer is mandatory for me as all my clients expect it.

At the risk of stating the obvious, the problem is probably the cost of the sensor. I can't imagine that the electronics or body add all that much, especially given that they are not having to support a high frame rate (which would require high speed electronics) or fancy auto focus. We know what sort of price the body, prism etc costs from the pre-digital age. And I presume the manufacturers buy the sensor from a third party, so the development costs will be spread over multiple customers, and priced in to the sensor. The issue is the large real estate. A 35mm sensor has a much higher reject rate compared to an APS-C one. And a MF sensor would be much worse. I'm sure someone could say what sort of price one might naively expect to pay for a sensor. I think the APS-C ones are down to $50-$100 a piece.

In the past MF had a key advantage over 35mm as the size of film grain was fixed for a given film speed e.g. Velvia 50. So increasing the film size was the route to higher quality. But digital can just increase the pixel density, subject to the lens resolution constraints. I guess this gets back to another thread on this forum about MF versus 35mm.
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BJL

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« Reply #44 on: October 22, 2009, 03:30:09 pm »

Quote from: ThierryH
If one would know the exact correlation between price drop and increase in sales ...
And the one closest to knowing that correlation are surely not in the peanut gallery of internet forums ... unless the now-it-all posters telling camera companies how to run their businesses are all retired billionaire entrepreneurs ...
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BJL

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« Reply #45 on: October 22, 2009, 03:40:27 pm »

Quote from: Slough
At the risk of stating the obvious, the problem is probably the cost of the sensor.
Yes, exacerbated by the poor and ever worse economies of scale in a MF market that has shrunk from a rather small 100,000 units a year or so late in the film era to maybe 10,000 a year for the whole MF industry with digital, while Canon and Nikon/Sony can each sell about 10,000 or more of their high end sensors every month (1DsMkIII+5DMkII, D3X+A900+A850.)

Quote from: Slough
We know what sort of price the body, prism etc costs from the pre-digital age.
Yes, and MF body prices have gone way up since the film era (consider Mamiya 645AF then and now), indicating to me that lower volumes are forcing ever higher mark-ups to cover R&D costs ... Or that the total morons running all MF companies would have been far better off by keeping prices down where they were.  Take your pick.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2009, 03:41:02 pm by BJL »
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ThierryH

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« Reply #46 on: October 22, 2009, 05:14:04 pm »

Not so at all, believe me: around 15% to 20%, maximum 30% of the total costs, depending on different variables (new product, end-of-life product, agreement on quantities, agreement on exclusivity, ... with manufacturer(s), etc ...).

R&D and software are the main costs, by far.

Gross margins are part of the enduser prices and are calculated according to business laws and to assure the survival of the companies, for those who still believe that the MF manufacturers are working with excessive margins.

Best regards,
Thierry
 
Quote from: Slough
At the risk of stating the obvious, the problem is probably the cost of the sensor.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2009, 05:17:05 pm by ThierryH »
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BJL

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« Reply #47 on: October 22, 2009, 05:39:48 pm »

Quote from: ThierryH
Not so at all, believe me: around 15% to 20%, maximum 30% of the total costs ...
R&D and software are the main costs, by far.
Do you mean that the price to MFDB makers are 15% to 30% of the total retail price? I have been told that the normal process of margins along the way mean that each $1 increase in component costs can add about $3 to retail, and if so, your percentages translate to sensor costs causing about 30% to 60% of retail price.

I can see that defraying R&D over unit sales only a few percent of what 35mm format DSLR's achieve and way under 1% of mainstream DLSR volume is a nasty cost multiplier too!

But if R&D dominates costs, not sensors, can you explain the big price differences between the Aptus-II models 5, 6 and 7 and 10? R&D costs should be similar for all models, with sensor differences then main difference, which makes me naively believe that sensor costs have a lot to do with the retail price.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2009, 05:41:07 pm by BJL »
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ThierryH

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« Reply #48 on: October 22, 2009, 06:42:01 pm »

Dear BJL,

What I was saying, to be clear, is that the cost of a sensor in the total costs of a manufacturer are those in my post above. Usually around 30% for a new product. The rest being mainly R&D and software costs + Parts. To these costs the manufacturer applies a gross margin which gives a "Export Price", the price the distributors are paying. This Gross Margin can obviously vary from one product to another (see answer to your last question below), but usually not from one distributor to another (or from one country to another), except for special deals (based mainly on quantities or special promotions in certain countries). I believe this is known and can be understood by all.

What happens after that can be very different, from one manufacturer to another, and I believe this is where there is so much confusion in pricing (not only with manufacturers of DMFBs): some manufacturers are working with MSRPs (Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price) or RRPs (Recommended Retail Price) or List Prices. We all know that these prices have been created to have a standard worldwide, or at least in some regions, but we also know that there are huge differences in "final" retail prices (so-called "Enduser Price") despite the MSRPs, simply because these "Enduser Prices" cannot be the same everywhere. While many distributors are working with these recommended prices with their endusers, some simply cannot: the transport or shipping costs, the import taxes, the import duties, the luxury taxes, the storage fees at custom clearance, the insurances, etc ... are sometimes/often very different from one continent, country or region to another. This gives a "Landed Price" which can be very different from one country to another. All distributors have to work with these "Landed Costs", to which they apply their margin: most if not all of the distributors are working with the same and normal margins, but the "Landed Price" makes the difference. Some countries in Asia are a good example for how it can be different, and I could write a book about it (grey market, smuggling, etc ...).

To answer your last question: I cannot speak for Leaf and the Aptus products in particular. But I can speak for what I know. There are products which include less/more margin than others (Entry product, Top-of-Line product, products which are discounted, products which have reached the "Break-Even" (Total Costs = Sales).

Remark: in your last sentence (... R&D dominates costs ...) you forgot the word "software": these together represent the main costs. Software costs are not to be underestimated: think about the number of people working alone for the software part, they have to be paid somehow, given that most MFDB manufacturers are giving the software FOC. But no, it is not FOC, a software.

Best regards,
Thierry

Quote from: BJL
Do you mean that the price to MFDB makers are 15% to 30% of the total retail price? I have been told that the normal process of margins along the way mean that each $1 increase in component costs can add about $3 to retail, and if so, your percentages translate to sensor costs causing about 30% to 60% of retail price.

I can see that defraying R&D over unit sales only a few percent of what 35mm format DSLR's achieve and way under 1% of mainstream DLSR volume is a nasty cost multiplier too!

But if R&D dominates costs, not sensors, can you explain the big price differences between the Aptus-II models 5, 6 and 7 and 10? R&D costs should be similar for all models, with sensor differences then main difference, which makes me naively believe that sensor costs have a lot to do with the retail price.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2009, 05:16:46 am by ThierryH »
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Slough

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Next generation MF sensors
« Reply #49 on: October 22, 2009, 07:16:11 pm »

I'm not sure there is a disagreement here. BJL indicated that the number of units sold is low, which means that the overheads are spread over fewer units, pushing up the end user price. So the sensor is a significant part of the cost, but so is the cost of distribution, marketing, sales etc due to smaller numbers sold.

BTW Thierry, when you refer to 'software' do you mean the in camera firmware? Or do you mean the software installed on a PC/Mac to process the RAW files? If the latter, then surely that is pretty much a one off cost, and the associated overhead is thus less and less each year. And in fact much of the firmware (JPG creation) must be a one off cost too, since the basic algorithms are pretty much the same irrespective of pixel count. Or maybe I'm missing something.
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Khun_K

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« Reply #50 on: October 22, 2009, 10:23:44 pm »

Quote from: ThierryH
If one would know the exact correlation between price drop and increase in sales, in any field, there would be a lot of billionaires.

Thierry

I like this line a lot!

Brgds/K
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Dustbak

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« Reply #51 on: October 23, 2009, 02:25:05 am »

Quote from: Slough
BTW Thierry, when you refer to 'software' do you mean the in camera firmware? Or do you mean the software installed on a PC/Mac to process the RAW files? If the latter, then surely that is pretty much a one off cost, and the associated overhead is thus less and less each year. And in fact much of the firmware (JPG creation) must be a one off cost too, since the basic algorithms are pretty much the same irrespective of pixel count. Or maybe I'm missing something.


What I know about the software is that this is pretty much an on-going process as well. This includes both firmware as well as processing software. A team of developers and a bunch of beta testers is constantly working on newer and improved versions of software. Surely the developers like to be paid as well.
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ThierryH

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« Reply #52 on: October 23, 2009, 04:30:37 am »

Quote from: Slough
I'm not sure there is a disagreement here. BJL indicated that the number of units sold is low, which means that the overheads are spread over fewer units, pushing up the end user price. So the sensor is a significant part of the cost, but so is the cost of distribution, marketing, sales etc due to smaller numbers sold.
I am not sure too, except that sensor costs used to be much more at the beginning of DMF.
Distribution, Marketing and Sales costs are usually not calculated in "manufacturing costs", but are in included in the gross margin.

Quote from: Slough
BTW Thierry, when you refer to 'software' do you mean the in camera firmware? Or do you mean the software installed on a PC/Mac to process the RAW files? If the latter, then surely that is pretty much a one off cost, and the associated overhead is thus less and less each year. And in fact much of the firmware (JPG creation) must be a one off cost too, since the basic algorithms are pretty much the same irrespective of pixel count. Or maybe I'm missing something.
I was speaking about software/firmware, and all related to this: it is a "never-ending story", and it is an important part of the costs for a manufacturer.

Best regards,
Thierry
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ThierryH

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« Reply #53 on: October 23, 2009, 04:31:31 am »

Quote from: Dustbak
What I know about the software is that this is pretty much an on-going process as well. This includes both firmware as well as processing software. A team of developers and a bunch of beta testers is constantly working on newer and improved versions of software. Surely the developers like to be paid as well.

That's exactly it, Dustback

Thierry
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ThierryH

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« Reply #54 on: October 23, 2009, 04:33:12 am »

Quote from: Khun_K
I like this line a lot!

Brgds/K

... and I am still looking to find this correlation.



Best regards
Thierry
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stevesanacore

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« Reply #55 on: October 23, 2009, 04:36:59 am »

Quote from: ThierryH
If one would know the exact correlation between price drop and increase in sales, in any field, there would be a lot of billionaires.

Thierry

I am sure Hasselblad, (or whoever they really are now), and Phase Mamiya have thought hard and long about this formula. But I wonder what percent of film MF users from the old days would jump right back to MF if the price was reasonable. I know I would, and most of my friends probably would too. Someone was saying the ratio went from 100,000 units to 10,000 units - wow. So if only one third of the old MF users would come back, (30,000), then their volume would triple. I would bet for at least one third to half, but the price would have to be back to where they used to be for that to happen. And that would require the economy to recover first.

I think we just need another Jim Jannard to go after the MF market. Although he seems to plan on it competing in the still world, his primary focus is on filmmaking. Time will tell.

Oh well, I better have another cup of coffee so I stop all this dreaming.
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ThierryH

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« Reply #56 on: October 23, 2009, 04:58:03 am »

Quote from: stevesanacore
I am sure Hasselblad, (or whoever they really are now), and Phase Mamiya have thought hard and long about this formula. But I wonder what percent of film MF users from the old days would jump right back to MF if the price was reasonable. I know I would, and most of my friends probably would too. Someone was saying the ratio went from 100,000 units to 10,000 units - wow. So if only one third of the old MF users would come back, (30,000), then their volume would triple. I would bet for at least one third to half, but the price would have to be back to where they used to be for that to happen. And that would require the economy to recover first.

I think we just need another Jim Jannard to go after the MF market. Although he seems to plan on it competing in the still world, his primary focus is on filmmaking. Time will tell.

Oh well, I better have another cup of coffee so I stop all this dreaming.

That is exactly the point: nobody is sure of or can predict the sales increase factor for a given price reduction, respectively gross margin drop, being it given that it is a good product, that the market is stable (no financial or economic or political crisis, etc ...) AND that you have time enough to apply what you think will make you a "billionaire".

Best regards,
Thierry
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georgl

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« Reply #57 on: October 23, 2009, 05:46:24 am »

The current CCDs cost about 3000-5000$ each if they're bought in quite large numbers (>1000): http://www2.electronicproducts.com/CCD_ima...t2008-html.aspx
The MF-systems propably could be cheaper, but they would still be much more expensive than 35mm-systems due to stricter testing.

"I think we just need another Jim Jannard to go after the MF market."

Great! We could call it "GREEN", it would have a large CMOS-sensor (let's say 36x48mm) made by Sony (but of course "GREEN" would never admit that and call it "Millenium") and be sold just for 5000$ - great sensor-size/price-ratio! But it would be manufactured in Singapore with low environmental standards by cheap (guest-)workers (<<1000$/month) instead of skilled craftsmen. The body will be made out of plastic/cheap metal, the camera overheats from time to time and it has no optical viewfinder, instead they use a 800x600-EVF! And then they rehouse old bronica-lenses and call them "GREEN"-lenses and sell them for twice the price. But what's really great about it: it has "GREEN-RAW" (so you cannot use LR, C1...)- it interpolates the 25megapixels to 100Megapixels @12bit and compresses it with JPG2000 in a 10:1-ratio to handy 10MB-files! That would be a revolution!

I think Phase and Hasselblad/Fuji should really invest R&D into their systems (at least Phase has some money) - custom ASICs, better screens and mabye a custom-designed CMOS when the technology finally means no trade-off in low-ISO-quality. But they shouldn't become a "standard 35mm-system" with a large sensor at any price - be careful what you wish for...
« Last Edit: October 23, 2009, 05:54:20 am by georgl »
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BJL

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« Reply #58 on: October 23, 2009, 11:53:46 am »

Quote from: georgl
The current CCDs cost about 3000-5000$ each if they're bought in quite large numbers (>1000): http://www2.electronicproducts.com/CCD_ima...t2008-html.aspx
Thanks for that link. After all the speculation and vague claims, this is the first concrete pricing I have seen, so let me quote it:

US$3,500 for the new Kodak KAF-50100 48x36mm, 50MP TRUESENSE Full Frame CCD of the H4D-50 and such, in sufficiently large volume purchases.
Source: http://www2.electronicproducts.com/CCD_ima...t2008-html.aspx
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eronald

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« Reply #59 on: October 24, 2009, 08:17:27 am »

Quote from: xinchenc
AGREED!

In fact price has no elasticity. Say Leaf AFi II 10 sold at $40000, if the price was $10000, would you buy 4 outfits? Unlikely. But at $10000, Leaf has no profit at all.

Xin

I think Leaf can make a back for less than $1000. Then factor in dealer rebate (40% on final price), local rep payroll, unsold stock, inhouse demo units, repair units etc, and the COST OF RUNNING A BUSINESS+PROFIT. and you end up with a final user prince of $6-8K.

A single craftsman, or a small craft firm, working on order and doing direct sales, could probably get buy selling the same product direct for $4K.

 
Edmund
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