Topic: forget Nikon medium format (Read 8873 times)

BJL · « **on:** January 28, 2009, 05:58:25 pm »

A few months ago, there was a rash of speculation that Nikon was about to launch a medium format system, along with the usual nonsensical arguments that Nikon (or Canon) are likely to move into that tiny and shrinking market sector, requiring a bunch of new lenses, despite never moving into MF in the film era when MF was a far larger sector than it is now.

And all that speculation was based on an ad. in rangefinder magazine for a Nikon "Big Event" at WPPI.
Well, here are more details about that big event:
http://wppi7.bighead.net/index.taf?_function=bignight
So unless a concert by band Blues Traveler is somehow the ideal setting for announcing a new MF system, I think that we can drop this rumor.

Much as I would like it to happen, I am not so naive to think that rumors of MF systems from 35mm format camera makers will not keep popping up. Too many people keep confusing "higher image quality, at higher price" with "a more profitable product sector, which every serious camera maker will naturally move towards." (Some people are expecting digital 6x7 on the same basis.)

What about Nikon and Sony moving up to full 35mm format, and medium format moving towards full 645? They already have the lenses and other components, which makes those moves far less expensive and more viable.

Slough · « **Reply #1 on:** January 29, 2009, 08:09:18 am »

There seems to be a process whereby an online 'expert' comes up with an idea, based on minimal 'evidence', held together with industrial quantities of speculation, and then others chip in with more 'evidence'. The qualification for being an expert appears to be the ability to contribute to 'learned' discussions on a forum (usually dpreview). (No, I'm not in any way referring to anyone on this forum.) Before long the speculation becomes a truth.

At some stage once sensors are relatively cheap, we might even see a mirror less MF digital camera, with a fixed prime lens, or a small range of primes. But I suspect that at present development costs for a digital camera far exceed those for a traditional camera, so we might not see such a diversity of large sensor products as in the film days. Or at least not for a fair few years. After all, you have the development and production costs for the sensor, the signal processing, the image processing, all the electronics that drive the camera, such as CF drivers, etc as well as the body shell, viewfinder, and lenses.

lisa_r · « **Reply #2 on:** January 30, 2009, 06:26:25 pm »

Seeing as the MF market seems to be dwindling even faster than the US economy, I don't see why anyone thought Nikon was about to throw their hat in the ring in the first place. It seemed like 110% baseless speculation in the first place, IMO.

ziocan · « **Reply #3 on:** January 30, 2009, 06:45:08 pm »

Quote from: lisa_r

Seeing as the MF market seems to be dwindling even faster than the US economy, I don't see why anyone thought Nikon was about to throw their hat in the ring in the first place. It seemed like 110% baseless speculation in the first place, IMO.

it was only a web forum w@nkers dream. not even a rumor.

BJL · « **Reply #4 on:** February 02, 2009, 05:59:23 pm »

I am glad that none of the respondents here were fooled by the rumors of a Nikon medium format system, but why have there been no replies from any of the posters in these threads who seemed to give credence to the rumors?
http://luminous-landscape.com/forum/index....showtopic=28016
http://luminous-landscape.com/forum/index....showtopic=27733
I will note that those discussions are here in the refined and sensible Luminous Landscape forums, not at the often disparaged DPReview forums!

Aside. I am pleasantly surprised by how widespread the interest is in this forum in seeing more "interchangeable lens camera systems that use video (Live View) in place of an optical reflex viewfinder." I do not know how good the EVF/LCD viewfinder systems will get, but I am hoping for the best. Such systems could be the best digital era counterpart of a range-finder system for a balance of compactness and lens quality.

BernardLanguillier · « **Reply #5 on:** February 03, 2009, 04:21:55 am »

Quote from: BJL

I am glad that none of the respondents here were fooled by the rumors of a Nikon medium format system, but why have there been no replies from any of the posters in these threads who seemed to give credence to the rumors?

Well, the ad you are referring to was one of the 4 reasonnably substantiated elements that started this rumour. The other 3 were:

- Photo of a paper showing resolutions in the 6000x6000 range for an MX mode,
- Picture of boxes showing MX lenses,
- A picture of an ad in Japanese showing a large looking mount with the word Big (大きい)

One went down, how about the other 3?

Anyway, it was clear from the beginning that we were speaking about a rumour. This camera system has obviously not been announced as of now, but whether it is because:

- It was never real
- It was to be released but the plan was postponed because of the economic situation
- It is still due out, but the date has not arrived yet

I am personnally unable to say.

My view is that there would still be a very sizeable market for a ZD like priced MF body but with D3x like performance around 40-50 MPs.

Cheers,
Bernard

BJL · « **Reply #6 on:** February 03, 2009, 10:48:17 am »

Quote from: BernardLanguillier

Well, the ad you are referring to was one of the 4 reasonnably substantiated elements that started this rumour. The other 3 were:

- Photo of a paper showing resolutions in the 6000x6000 range for an MX mode,
- Picture of boxes showing MX lenses,
- A picture of an ad in Japanese showing a large looking mount with the word Big (大きい)

I would like to see links to the last two, which I have not seen. (Also, these were not mentioned in the posts I have seen arguing in support of this rumor, so my skepticism about people believing rumors on the basic of other very weak evidence still holds.)

The "6000x6000 MX" item I have seen was a photo of an image in a video projection, which could be real or an easy fake. A great majority of alleged photographic evidence for rumors is faked, which is why "a document with a significant amount of text, not just photos" is my minimum criterion for interesting documentary evidence. Allegedly leaked multi-page PDF or PowerPoint documents and photographs of printed brochures have an excellent record of being confirmed.

Given the strong evidence of a move away from square formats (starting back in the film era and seen even in sensors for the Hy6 system!), my skepticism about the 6000x6000, 48x48mm and 54x54mm sensor rumors is particularly strong.

Of course claims that "it was planned but has been postponed or cancelled" can never be absolutely refuted, and so rumors without due dates can never be refuted. I suppose that will never be able to prove that "inexpensive 54x54mm sensors are coming and will take over MF" either.
But the rumors I referred to did have dates, so at least we must agree that your Nov 8th announcement was a false rumor.

BernardLanguillier · « **Reply #7 on:** February 03, 2009, 11:19:14 pm »

Quote from: BJL

But the rumors I referred to did have dates, so at least we must agree that your Nov 8th announcement was a false rumor.

It obviously was and I clearly indicated in the initial post that it was a rumor and I did not have any insider information on this.

Other people mentioned it too... http://luminous-landscape.com/forum/index....=40#entry226045

Cheers,
Bernard

ErikKaffehr · « **Reply #8 on:** February 03, 2009, 11:51:04 pm »

Hi,

In my view the SLR is a dinosaur, albeit a usable one. We put a movable mirror wich is intimately involved with focusing. Eliminating the mirror would give us plenty advantages like more exact focusing, less noise, sharper wide angles, less vibration and smaller camera bodies. The only downside with EVIL is that we need to get it working, even when it is dark ;-).

Best regards
Erik
Collector of DSLR dinosaurs (KM7d, Sony Alpha 100, 700 and 900)

Quote from: BJL

I am glad that none of the respondents here were fooled by the rumors of a Nikon medium format system, but why have there been no replies from any of the posters in these threads who seemed to give credence to the rumors?
http://luminous-landscape.com/forum/index....showtopic=28016
http://luminous-landscape.com/forum/index....showtopic=27733
I will note that those discussions are here in the refined and sensible Luminous Landscape forums, not at the often disparaged DPReview forums!

Aside. I am pleasantly surprised by how widespread the interest is in this forum in seeing more "interchangeable lens camera systems that use video (Live View) in place of an optical reflex viewfinder." I do not know how good the EVF/LCD viewfinder systems will get, but I am hoping for the best. Such systems could be the best digital era counterpart of a range-finder system for a balance of compactness and lens quality.

BJL · « **Reply #9 on:** February 04, 2009, 12:06:51 pm »

Quote from: BernardLanguillier

... I clearly indicated in the initial post that it was a rumor and I did not have any insider information on this.

Bernard,
Indeed, I should have acknowledged in my previous post that you simply reported the existence of the rumor. My criticism was aimed at other posts that argued for its plausibility. (Still, when reporting rumors, it might be a good practice to identify the sources, and the evidence if any.)

BJL · « **Reply #10 on:** February 11, 2009, 09:53:34 am »

To Bernard in particular,

let me add one optimistic thought to balance my skepticism about rumors of new cameras systems.

I can see a place for completely new "Full Time Live View" (non-reflex) system with all new lenses, as this is a potentially worthwhile new type of product, and backward compatibility with existing SLR lenses is inherently limited. Even if old lens can be mounted, an adaptor is needed, and AF mechanisms designed for an SLR's phase detection AF seem not to work optimally with contrast detection AF.

All recent examples of completely new camera and lens systems I can think of involve adding some technology not previously offered by that cameras maker, like auto-focus and electronic lens-body coupling. That includes Leica's coming MF system!

Rickard Hansson · « **Reply #11 on:** February 11, 2009, 04:58:03 pm »

Quote from: ErikKaffehr

Hi,

In my view the SLR is a dinosaur, albeit a usable one. We put a movable mirror wich is intimately involved with focusing. Eliminating the mirror would give us plenty advantages like more exact focusing, less noise, sharper wide angles, less vibration and smaller camera bodies. The only downside with EVIL is that we need to get it working, even when it is dark ;-).

Best regards
Erik
Collector of DSLR dinosaurs (KM7d, Sony Alpha 100, 700 and 900)

Eliminating the mirror has already been done with the micro four-third. BUT, then you suddenly eill have to use EVF:s (electrical viewfinders) which slows down the actual use of the cameras.

What i like about the DSLR/SLRs is the fact that the mirror gives you an FAST overview without any resolution limited view.

eronald · « **Reply #12 on:** February 11, 2009, 06:05:00 pm »

Quote from: Rickard Hansson

Eliminating the mirror has already been done with the micro four-third. BUT, then you suddenly eill have to use EVF:s (electrical viewfinders) which slows down the actual use of the cameras.

What i like about the DSLR/SLRs is the fact that the mirror gives you an FAST overview without any resolution limited view.

And zero power usage when using the optical preview.

Edmund

Rickard Hansson · « **Reply #13 on:** February 12, 2009, 03:22:19 pm »

Quote from: eronald

And zero power usage when using the optical preview.

Edmund

And that as well :-)

christian_raae · « **Reply #14 on:** February 18, 2009, 04:45:16 am »

The only way that Nikon would start a MF line, is if there actually were buyers for it, and if it wouldn't cannibalise their existing line of products.

Of course the end profit would have a saying, but I think Nikon could afford a break-even start off, if they though it would strengthen their brand, and if the future pricing of sensors would get lower.

The tendencies in the marked is that the consumer in general speaks of big sensors, and is getting a more "educated" idea of how the sensor size plays a big role for a noise free, and high dynamic image.

And look at the "full frame" development the last 3 years, Nikon has introduced the d700 at a fairly low price, and we will without a doubt see even cheaper full frame cameras within the upcoming 2 years.
Off course this turnover and volume of big sensors pushes the production prices down, and the opportunity to produce even bigger sensors at a more reasonable price becomes possible.

I mean, if Nikon could create a new MF mount that in addition will work with different adaptors, that could fit Mamiya, Hbl, Rollei, etc, plus introduce 5 new lenses, they'd be cutting quite a big piece of the market I reckon.

This is just speculation, but who knows? Nikon and Canon could afford such a step, but the question remains, can they make it profitable in the length?

Author Topic: forget Nikon medium format (Read 8873 times)

Slough

lisa_r